Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

wshahan

Week Two Trades-Spookywill

Recommended Posts

Your post brought it to the attention of my consciousness and just for shits and giggles I browsed all 30 trading days of the current ES contract and this is what I found:

 

I haven't tested this directly either, but it certainly fits with concepts I have tested, such as fading the initial move off the regular session open.

 

Thanks for an interesting post.

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The initial balance trade is a Market Profile concept from James Dalton. His work indicated that 70% of the time, one exreme or the other formed in the first hour of trade. (James Dalton, Mind Over Markets. Tom Alexander of AlexanderGroup has done much work with back testing the data over a long period ane his number is 65% which is what I referenced. It is a very simple concept, and I have found it useful.

 

That's really useful - thanks.

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We had a pull back to enter long at 1378 or better. Prices retreated to 1376.75 at 9:06, and then mde another run at 1380 which has so far failed (9:25 CST.) Current price is 1379.50. I am long at 1377.25 at 9:06.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have had 2 inside bars in a row on the 30 min bar chart. Ths raises the possibility of a sharp move from the 1381 level without implying a dirctional bias. This is an interesting time of day to expect much in the way of price movement as we are gopmg into the quiet time of day.

 

Only time will tell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My original stop was at 1375.75. Price now is at 1381.75. I have moved my stop to 1377.50.

 

Upside objectives: initial 1386.50, then 1397 area.

 

Thanks for sharing good analysis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep in mind that 1376.25 is our downside key reference point. So far the bulk of the day session trade has occurred in a 2 point range, 1380-1382.

 

This is unlikey to continue much longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We had a restest of the morning high which failked by 1 tick (1383 versus 1383.25.) If we don't break out here, widows and orphans should take a 5 point profit. All others take partial profits according to trading plan. I assume most day trading plans would take at least a partial profit if we should get up 10 points (approx. 1387 or so.)

 

At this juncture, my working assumption is that the 8:30 30 min bar is going to be the day's low extreme. Range symmetery concepts give me a clue that range today will likely exceed 8 points, and an upper expectation would be for a 20 point day, plus or minus 10%. The implication of this is prices go much above current levels, we could get a big up day, i.e.,

a retracement of yesterday. 1385.75 is the high from yesterday, so exceeding yesterday's high could lead to much higher prices.

 

The other side of our symmetry thought is that if we are going to have a reversal, this would be be a logical area to expect it.

 

Breaking yesterday's high, or not, seems to be the key.

 

1381 is our high volume price, and we continue to trade above there without much price movement.

 

The issue is now that there is very low volume (lunch time, etc.) We will need an increase in volume to get price movement in either direction.

 

Spookywill

 

So we shall see. Only time wil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have spent 3 hours in a 2 point range. Unless you are unusuallyaggressive, I think it is time to close the longs and stand back to evaluate the situation.

 

Close positions at 1381 or better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are approaching yesterday's day session range low of 1365.50.

 

If we hold that price, conservative investors take profits.

 

If we go below 1365.75 and hold, add to short positions.

 

IF not short, enter shorts upon retesty failure.

Edited by wshahan
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We are approaching yesterday's day session range low of 1365.50.

 

If we hold that price, conservative investors take profits.

 

If we go below 1365.75 and hold, add to short positions.

 

IF not short, enter shorts upon retesty failure.

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

conservative investors take profits in the 1377 area. We made a 1 tick new low and bounced off of it. I think we can possibly make a new low, but givens todays narrow range, 4 points looks good.

 

That plus 5 points in the morning makes for a good day in the ES.

 

Especially on a day with a day session range of 8.75 points.

Edited by wshahan
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
conservative investors take profits in the 1377 area. We made a 1 tick new low and bounced off of it. I think we can possibly make a new low, but givens todays narrow range, 4 points looks good.

 

That plus 5 points in the morning makes for a good day in the ES.

 

Especially on a day with a day session range of 8.75 points.

 

Good work Buddy, well appreciated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3:18 PM CST

 

 

Reply to CYP

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

 

1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks, gosu, that was a very interesting post!

 

Did you check the congestion and retest part too?

 

I know, I am sooo lazy... :stick out tongue:

 

... if you haven't done it you bet I will look into it myself :)

 

Not for all days, just for the 2 exceptional days. See the spreadsheet. I didn't find anything revelatory, nor did I expect to because this is familiar territory. If this is new territory for you, I'm sure you'll learn more by looking into it yourself. Feel free to PM if you have any other questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reply to CYP

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

 

1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.

My bad, we went below 1375.50 in today's session. 1365.50 was in reference to yesterday's session in case we had a big breakdown.

 

Spookywill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • In Italy, I saw many of our brothers from different parts of Africa, sleeping and living in the park, the weather was very cold and its obvious that they were looked down upon. It made me want to cry and several questions overwhelmed my heart.   Is it not better to remain in Africa than to be homeless in this freezing cold weather?   I wish I have all the money in the world to rescue them...   Is this the reason why our skin color is looked down upon?   Do our government officials see this sight when they also travel outside of the country...does it hurt them or pain them like it pained me? By Frank Abah, Quora   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • ELV Elevance Health stock, watch for an upside gap breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?ELV
    • ORLY OReilly Automotive stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?ORLY
    • Date: 28th March 2025.   Market Selloff Deepens as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Investors     Global stock markets extended their losing streak for a third day as concerns over looming US tariffs and an escalating trade war dampened investor sentiment. The flight to safety saw gold prices surge to a record high, underscoring growing risk aversion. Stock Selloff Intensifies The MSCI World Index recorded its longest losing streak in a month, while Asian equities saw their sharpest decline since late February. US and European stock futures also signalled potential weakness, while cryptocurrency markets retreated and bond yields edged lower. Investors are scaling back their exposure ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2. His latest move to impose a 25% levy on all foreign-made automobiles has sparked fresh concerns over inflation and economic growth, prompting traders to reassess their strategies. Investor Strategies Shift Market experts are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of heightened volatility. ‘It’s impossible to predict Trump’s next move,’ said Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments. ‘Our focus is on companies that are less vulnerable to tariff policies while taking advantage of market dips to find value opportunities.’ Yield Curve Signals Economic Concerns In the bond market, the spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields widened to its highest level since early 2022. Investors are bracing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts if economic growth slows further. Long-term Treasury yields hit a one-month peak as inflation risks tied to tariffs spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while tariffs may contribute to short-term price increases, their long-term effects remain uncertain. Gold Hits Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Rises Amid market turbulence, gold prices soared 0.7% on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $3,077.60 per ounce. Major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end. Looking Ahead As investors digest economic data showing US growth acceleration in Q4, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves. With markets on edge and trade tensions escalating, investors will closely monitor upcoming developments, particularly Trump’s tariff announcement next week, which could further dictate market direction.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Crypto hype is everywhere since it also making new riches as well, i however trade crypto little as compared to other forex trading pairs.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.