Week Two Trades-Spookywill

[wshahan 10]

The time it took to write and post the entry missed the trade. What a day. I am long from 1380.50. There was a break out buy signal at that price, and then the trade developed to fast to write and post it.

 

Now watch for the big move up to test today's high, then yesterday's high.

 

This is the sharp move up that I warned about earlier in th day, we had a breakout signal in the 5 minute chrt, and we had a strong bottom formation in the 30 min. chart

 

At this time we have rotated back to the High volume area and have not penetrated it to the upside. The key for the rest of the day is does the morning high hold. If it is penetrated, we could see much er prices tomorrow..

Edited April 18, 2012 by wshahan
word correction

[wshahan 10]

1:59

 

We have a three print buyng ledge at 1384. Aggresive traders can go long at this price or lower and see if we get a last hour run.

 

Spookywill

[wshahan 10]

Very strange afternoon, we got a 5 minute rally at 2:00 capped by a collapse after 2:40 CST. Today featured rotational trade in a very narror range and thus was very difficult to trade as I repeatedly cautioned. I will do a wrap up this evening as there were some learning opportunities worth exploring in today's trading.

 

Spookywill

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Relief pitching for spooky out of gratitude for what he's given me and because this question is just about the perfect level for me with my skills. The night session is often referred to as the Globex session. It begins a few mins after regular session close and runs until the reg session open on the next day.

 

I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that the regular ES session is also Globex, as there isn't a cash session. Globex is just the electonic exchange platform, and the ES only trades electronically (with the Spooz as the larger cash contract). Have I misunderstood this?

 

Regardless, the term is obviously being used by Spookwill to reference the night session, as Onesmith points out.

 

Bluehorseshoe

[joshdance 10]

I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that the regular ES session is also Globex, as there isn't a cash session. Globex is just the electonic exchange platform, and the ES only trades electronically (with the Spooz as the larger cash contract). Have I misunderstood this?

 

You are correct. Technically there is only one trading session, and it's the electronic globex session. The globex session is 23 hours, 45 minutes, from 3:30pm CT to 3:15pm CT, with a half hour maintenance break of 4:30pm to 5:00pm. However, if someone refers to the "globex high," for example, they usually are referring to the 3:30pm CT - 8:30am CT high, whereas the "RTH high" is usually the 8:30am to 3:15pm high.

[wshahan 10]

10:52 CST WRAP UP

 

Trades:

 

1. Time: 807 AM CST Entry: Short Price:1383.25 Cover 1384, Result: -.75 points

 

2. 9:55 Entry: short at 1384.25, Covered at 1381, +3.25 points. Posted late

 

3. 1:35 Entry long 1380.50, Close at 1384. +3.5 points

 

4.1:59 Enter long at 1384, scrub trade at breakeven, 0 points.

 

Trades 1, 2,and 3 were legitimate trades for a day like today. The recommendation to go short at 1381 and trade 4. were not good entries because they were not made near range extremes and depended out breakouts which might or might not occu to be profitable.

 

RANDOM THOUGHTs FROM TODAY’S POSTS:

 

8:07

Yesterday’s day session top doubled topped with the April 10th high. Since then, prices in the ES have been working their way back into yesterday’s range and have retraced about half of the day session’s range. Yesterday’s run up was on low volume and could be subject to retracement today. The most likely case after a day like yesterday is for trade consolidation within yesterday’s range.

 

YES. THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED.

 

9:28

The 9:30 bar slightly exceeded the 9:00 one. We have also traded back into the lower part of yesterday’s high volume node and failed there.

 

An implication of this formation is that the high in the 9:30 bar has a 65% chance of becoming today’s upper range extreme and the 9:00 bar’s low is likely to be taken out.

 

FREQUENTLY A VALUABLE “HEADS UP”.

.

 

9:43

What we are seeing is no range development, i.e. no conviction, and hence poor opportunities so far in the session.

 

SAY IT AGAIN

 

9:43 Caution: Today s liable to be very choppy and very difficult to trade

 

THE ABOVE QUOTES PRETTY MUCH SAY IT ALL.

 

 

9:55 Keep in mind the caveat: Today is likely to be a choppy day within yesterday’s range.

 

ONE MORE TIME

 

 

12:09 In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits.

 

Following this principle enabled me to almost equal today’s range in profits. A real good result for trading the US session on a range bound day like today.

 

Another potentially interesting factoid is that when you have such low range, rotational type trading in the early session, there is possibility that you will a sharp move later in the session. Be alert for this.

 

 

So far we have a balanced day and this frequently produces a good move later in the session. (See Above.)

 

WE GOT THREE SUCH SHARP MOVES WITH NO BREAKOUTS. BUT THE MOVES EXACERBATED THE TRADING DIFFICULTIES PRESENT TODAY AND INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING “WHIPSAWED”.

 

 

 

 

12:09

In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits. In today’s case prices traded down from 1385 area to 1379.50 and spent 30 minutes in the 1380 area before rising to 1383.50.

 

TRADES 2 AND 3 DEMONSTRAT THE UTILITY OF THE CONCEPT.

 

KEY FOR THE DAY.

 

 

 

12:09 No range equals a boring day. Boring days sometimes lead to “Frustration Trades”

or chasing trades. Go fishing for finny fish instead.

 

MY ATTEMPT AT A PUN, NO COMMENTS NECESSARY. TRADE 4 WAS A FRUSTRATION TRADE AS AN EXAMPLE.

 

 

FOUR THINGS ABOUT TODAY:

 

1. Trade Location is key. Only enter near known range extremes, then hope for possible range extension.

 

2. Moves in a limited range can tend to be sharp and quick.

 

3 The bigger moves leading to range extension tend to start in the high volume node and can be identified by a volume dry up at an extreme followed by a volume build up around the high volume price. Then a gradual build up of volume above the hvp. Frequently there will be a ledge which acts as a launching point for higher prices. Today we had such ledges both buying and selling which failed. That is highly unusual in my experience, but today was the ultimate non trend, range bound, rotational day.

 

4 .A day like today is very tiring if you choose to play it. The frequent rotations require constant attention which today I found very fatiguing. This makes one vulnerable to making poor decisions. See “boring” above.

 

May tomorrow be a more rewarding Day!

 

Spookywill

[gosu 10]

 

* * *

 

9:28

The 9:30 bar slightly exceeded the 9:00 one. We have also traded back into the lower part of yesterday’s high volume node and failed there.

 

An implication of this formation is that the high in the 9:30 bar has a 65% chance of becoming today’s upper range extreme and the 9:00 bar’s low is likely to be taken out.

 

FREQUENTLY A VALUABLE “HEADS UP”.

 

* * *

 

65%? Are you rolling dice? How did you arrive at such a figure, or any figure at all?

[goodoboy 10]

10:52 CST WRAP UP

 

Trades:

 

1. Time: 807 AM CST Entry: Short Price:1383.25 Cover 1384, Result: -.75 points

 

2. 9:55 Entry: short at 1384.25, Covered at 1381, +3.25 points. Posted late

 

3. 1:35 Entry long 1380.50, Close at 1384. +3.5 points

 

4.1:59 Enter long at 1384, scrub trade at breakeven, 0 points.

 

Trades 1, 2,and 3 were legitimate trades for a day like today. The recommendation to go short at 1381 and trade 4. were not good entries because they were not made near range extremes and depended out breakouts which might or might not occu to be profitable.

 

RANDOM THOUGHTs FROM TODAY’S POSTS:

 

8:07

Yesterday’s day session top doubled topped with the April 10th high. Since then, prices in the ES have been working their way back into yesterday’s range and have retraced about half of the day session’s range. Yesterday’s run up was on low volume and could be subject to retracement today. The most likely case after a day like yesterday is for trade consolidation within yesterday’s range.

 

YES. THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED.

 

9:28

The 9:30 bar slightly exceeded the 9:00 one. We have also traded back into the lower part of yesterday’s high volume node and failed there.

 

An implication of this formation is that the high in the 9:30 bar has a 65% chance of becoming today’s upper range extreme and the 9:00 bar’s low is likely to be taken out.

 

FREQUENTLY A VALUABLE “HEADS UP”.

.

 

9:43

What we are seeing is no range development, i.e. no conviction, and hence poor opportunities so far in the session.

 

SAY IT AGAIN

 

9:43 Caution: Today s liable to be very choppy and very difficult to trade

 

THE ABOVE QUOTES PRETTY MUCH SAY IT ALL.

 

 

9:55 Keep in mind the caveat: Today is likely to be a choppy day within yesterday’s range.

 

ONE MORE TIME

 

 

12:09 In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits.

 

Following this principle enabled me to almost equal today’s range in profits. A real good result for trading the US session on a range bound day like today.

 

Another potentially interesting factoid is that when you have such low range, rotational type trading in the early session, there is possibility that you will a sharp move later in the session. Be alert for this.

 

 

So far we have a balanced day and this frequently produces a good move later in the session. (See Above.)

 

WE GOT THREE SUCH SHARP MOVES WITH NO BREAKOUTS. BUT THE MOVES EXACERBATED THE TRADING DIFFICULTIES PRESENT TODAY AND INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR GETTING “WHIPSAWED”.

 

 

 

 

12:09

In a day like this with a narrow range and rotational type trading, if you get more than three points, conservative traders can profits. In today’s case prices traded down from 1385 area to 1379.50 and spent 30 minutes in the 1380 area before rising to 1383.50.

 

TRADES 2 AND 3 DEMONSTRAT THE UTILITY OF THE CONCEPT.

 

KEY FOR THE DAY.

 

 

 

12:09 No range equals a boring day. Boring days sometimes lead to “Frustration Trades”

or chasing trades. Go fishing for finny fish instead.

 

MY ATTEMPT AT A PUN, NO COMMENTS NECESSARY. TRADE 4 WAS A FRUSTRATION TRADE AS AN EXAMPLE.

 

 

FOUR THINGS ABOUT TODAY:

 

1. Trade Location is key. Only enter near known range extremes, then hope for possible range extension.

 

2. Moves in a limited range can tend to be sharp and quick.

 

3 The bigger moves leading to range extension tend to start in the high volume node and can be identified by a volume dry up at an extreme followed by a volume build up around the high volume price. Then a gradual build up of volume above the hvp. Frequently there will be a ledge which acts as a launching point for higher prices. Today we had such ledges both buying and selling which failed. That is highly unusual in my experience, but today was the ultimate non trend, range bound, rotational day.

 

4 .A day like today is very tiring if you choose to play it. The frequent rotations require constant attention which today I found very fatiguing. This makes one vulnerable to making poor decisions. See “boring” above.

 

May tomorrow be a more rewarding Day!

 

Spookywill

 

Thank you kindly for the time and effort. Good work, and good reading.

[wshahan 10]

we have downside breakout. Go short 1377. 50 or better.

[wshahan 10]

We had a false downside breakout and a strong reversal.

 

The downside breakout reached 1374 50, stalled at the lows for 20 minutes and has run 12 points in the opposite direction. Obviously we scrubbed the short at breakeven, now I am looking for an opportunity to go long.

[wshahan 10]

We have now tested both extremes of yesterdy''s range and comback into the upper part of yesterday's day session profile. At this juncture, I am looking for some consolidatin in the middle of yesterday's range and the more upside movement. I am hoping to get a pull back to 1382 or so. I am buying one contract here just to get a toe in the water.

 

9:53 enter long 1 contract at 1394.

[wshahan 10]

Prices remain very strong and we are near yesterday's upper extreme. If we take out 1385.75, and remain above that price, we want to be long.

[wshahan 10]

Prices have puled back,. 1385.75 is yesterday's US session high and our pivot point for now.

Price is at 1379 even which is the high volume price. By long here at 1380 or better, stop 1377.50

 

I am long 4 contracts at 1379.50.

Edited April 19, 2012 by wshahan

[wshahan 10]

1383.50 is the high volume price, so that is the first target. Then 1385.75, yesterday's US high, is next. Finally, this morning's Globex high of 1390 is next.

 

Downside targets are 1377.50 and the session low of 1374.50.

 

So far today is like yesterday, a rotational chop fest. The difference is today's range is larger, and hence, theoreically easier to trade.

Edited April 19, 2012 by wshahan

[wshahan 10]

Today is another extremely choppy day I entered long at 1379.50. Prices rose to 1383.25 and then plummeted to 1376.50 in 10 minutes. I got stopped out with a 1 tick profit (I move stops to 1 tick profit when I get up 3 points.)

 

I want to go long, but am waiting to see more of a bottom develop. If the morning low holds, I want to be long close to the current price of 1377.

 

I am not going to chase a new low at this juncture given the choppy day we are having.

Edited April 19, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[wshahan 10]

I am long from 1376, stop 1374, below today's low. The rational for this trade is I am risking 2 points for a return to yesterday's range high, a potential gain of 5 to 1.

Edited April 19, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[wshahan 10]

I got stopped out for a 2 point loss. I am going long again at 1374.5, stop below low at 1372.50

[wshahan 10]

We have a small balance area betwee1378 to 1378, high volume price at 1376.75. I am hoping for a return to at least 1375.75 and hopefully to trade through the small balance area to the upside.

[wshahan 10]

sellshort 1370.00 better

[steve46 12]

65%? Are you rolling dice? How did you arrive at such a figure, or any figure at all?

 

The gentleman asked you a question. I am also interested in this subject...

 

Could you show the calculation you used to arrive at that number?

 

Thanks

[wshahan 10]

To what are you refering? Where is 65% Are you refering to the extreme reference? I will be glad to address the issue as soon as I know what it is.

 

Spookywill.

[steve46 12]

To what are you refering? Where is 65% Are you refering to the extreme reference? I will be glad to address the issue as soon as I know what it is.

 

Spookywill.

 

Your post #40......Gosu's post #57....either one.....thanks

[wshahan 10]

The initial balance trade is a Market Profile concept from James Dalton. His work indicated that 70% of the time, one exreme or the other formed in the first hour of trade. (James Dalton, Mind Over Markets. Tom Alexander of AlexanderGroup has done much work with back testing the data over a long period ane his number is 65% which is what I referenced. It is a very simple concept, and I have found it useful.

[gosu 10]

The initial balance trade is a Market Profile concept from James Dalton. His work indicated that 70% of the time, one exreme or the other formed in the first hour of trade. (James Dalton, Mind Over Markets. Tom Alexander of AlexanderGroup has done much work with back testing the data over a long period ane his number is 65% which is what I referenced. It is a very simple concept, and I have found it useful.

 

I have no backtested data arriving at some %, but my experience is in line with the Market Profile concept in your post. However, I do not use a strict 60m test. I just go into every RTH session "knowing" that the market will make one extreme in the AM and, once made, the market will move away from that extreme in the other direction expanding the range until congestion (usually midday). If congestion begins or arrives during the AM, I know the first extreme will likely be tested later usually in BO/FBO modus.

 

For me, none of this has to do with percentages or odds. I just know this is how the market "works" and is something I don't even think about. Your post brought it to the attention of my consciousness and just for shits and giggles I browsed all 30 trading days of the current ES contract and this is what I found:

 

On 24 out of 30 days (80%), at least one extreme was made within the first 60 minutes.

 

On 28 out of 30 days (93.33%), at least one extreme was made within the first 90 minutes.

 

The result did not change by expanding to 120 minutes.

 

On the 2 days where the RTH extremes were made beyond the first 90 minutes, the extreme made during the first 90 minutes was exceeded by 1 tick. On these 2 days, congestion either began or occurred within the AM (before 8:50 pacific time).

 

Cheers.

[karoshiman 10]

I have no backtested data arriving at some %, but my experience is in line with the Market Profile concept in your post. However, I do not use a strict 60m test. I just go into every RTH session "knowing" that the market will make one extreme in the AM and, once made, the market will move away from that extreme in the other direction expanding the range until congestion (usually midday). If congestion begins or arrives during the AM, I know the first extreme will likely be tested later usually in BO/FBO modus.

 

For me, none of this has to do with percentages or odds. I just know this is how the market "works" and is something I don't even think about. Your post brought it to the attention of my consciousness and just for shits and giggles I browsed all 30 trading days of the current ES contract and this is what I found:

 

On 24 out of 30 days (80%), at least one extreme was made within the first 60 minutes.

 

On 28 out of 30 days (93.33%), at least one extreme was made within the first 90 minutes.

 

The result did not change by expanding to 120 minutes.

 

On the 2 days where the RTH extremes were made beyond the first 90 minutes, the extreme made during the first 90 minutes was exceeded by 1 tick. On these 2 days, congestion either began or occurred within the AM (before 8:50 pacific time).

 

Cheers.

 

 

Thanks, gosu, that was a very interesting post!

 

Did you check the congestion and retest part too?

 

I know, I am sooo lazy...

 

... if you haven't done it you bet I will look into it myself