Week Two Trades-Spookywill

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Your post brought it to the attention of my consciousness and just for shits and giggles I browsed all 30 trading days of the current ES contract and this is what I found:

 

I haven't tested this directly either, but it certainly fits with concepts I have tested, such as fading the initial move off the regular session open.

 

Thanks for an interesting post.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

The initial balance trade is a Market Profile concept from James Dalton. His work indicated that 70% of the time, one exreme or the other formed in the first hour of trade. (James Dalton, Mind Over Markets. Tom Alexander of AlexanderGroup has done much work with back testing the data over a long period ane his number is 65% which is what I referenced. It is a very simple concept, and I have found it useful.

 

That's really useful - thanks.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[wshahan 10]

we had a buy signal 1377.50 and we have a potential break out to the upside. Go long at 1378 . 1380 is the breakout.

[wshahan 10]

If we fail to take out the Globes high, then trading below 1376.25 will give us a sell signal.

[wshahan 10]

We had a pull back to enter long at 1378 or better. Prices retreated to 1376.75 at 9:06, and then mde another run at 1380 which has so far failed (9:25 CST.) Current price is 1379.50. I am long at 1377.25 at 9:06.

[wshahan 10]

My original stop was at 1375.75. Price now is at 1381.75. I have moved my stop to 1377.50.

 

Upside objectives: initial 1386.50, then 1397 area.

[wshahan 10]

We have had 2 inside bars in a row on the 30 min bar chart. Ths raises the possibility of a sharp move from the 1381 level without implying a dirctional bias. This is an interesting time of day to expect much in the way of price movement as we are gopmg into the quiet time of day.

 

Only time will tell.

[goodoboy 10]

My original stop was at 1375.75. Price now is at 1381.75. I have moved my stop to 1377.50.

 

Upside objectives: initial 1386.50, then 1397 area.

 

Thanks for sharing good analysis.

[wshahan 10]

Keep in mind that 1376.25 is our downside key reference point. So far the bulk of the day session trade has occurred in a 2 point range, 1380-1382.

 

This is unlikey to continue much longer.

[wshahan 10]

We had a restest of the morning high which failked by 1 tick (1383 versus 1383.25.) If we don't break out here, widows and orphans should take a 5 point profit. All others take partial profits according to trading plan. I assume most day trading plans would take at least a partial profit if we should get up 10 points (approx. 1387 or so.)

 

At this juncture, my working assumption is that the 8:30 30 min bar is going to be the day's low extreme. Range symmetery concepts give me a clue that range today will likely exceed 8 points, and an upper expectation would be for a 20 point day, plus or minus 10%. The implication of this is prices go much above current levels, we could get a big up day, i.e.,

a retracement of yesterday. 1385.75 is the high from yesterday, so exceeding yesterday's high could lead to much higher prices.

 

The other side of our symmetry thought is that if we are going to have a reversal, this would be be a logical area to expect it.

 

Breaking yesterday's high, or not, seems to be the key.

 

1381 is our high volume price, and we continue to trade above there without much price movement.

 

The issue is now that there is very low volume (lunch time, etc.) We will need an increase in volume to get price movement in either direction.

 

Spookywill

 

So we shall see. Only time wil.

[wshahan 10]

We have spent 3 hours in a 2 point range. Unless you are unusuallyaggressive, I think it is time to close the longs and stand back to evaluate the situation.

 

Close positions at 1381 or better.

[wshahan 10]

Enter short at 1381.

[wshahan 10]

We have a good risk rewared ratio on a short here.

 

Sell 1381, stop 1383.50, target is today's low, 1376.25

[wshahan 10]

We are approaching yesterday's day session range low of 1365.50.

 

If we hold that price, conservative investors take profits.

 

If we go below 1365.75 and hold, add to short positions.

 

IF not short, enter shorts upon retesty failure.

Edited April 20, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[CYP 10]

We are approaching yesterday's day session range low of 1365.50.

 

If we hold that price, conservative investors take profits.

 

If we go below 1365.75 and hold, add to short positions.

 

IF not short, enter shorts upon retesty failure.

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

[wshahan 10]

take profits at 1377

[wshahan 10]

conservative investors take profits in the 1377 area. We made a 1 tick new low and bounced off of it. I think we can possibly make a new low, but givens todays narrow range, 4 points looks good.

 

That plus 5 points in the morning makes for a good day in the ES.

 

Especially on a day with a day session range of 8.75 points.

Edited April 20, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[goodoboy 10]

conservative investors take profits in the 1377 area. We made a 1 tick new low and bounced off of it. I think we can possibly make a new low, but givens todays narrow range, 4 points looks good.

 

That plus 5 points in the morning makes for a good day in the ES.

 

Especially on a day with a day session range of 8.75 points.

 

Good work Buddy, well appreciated.

[wshahan 10]

We have 6 points in the short and we are on the lows. Prudence says to cloes the shorts at 1375 or better.

Edited April 20, 2012 by wshahan
typo

[wshahan 10]

Covered at 1374, at 2:59.

 

Gone for the day, have a nice weekend.

[wshahan 10]

3:18 PM CST

 

 

Reply to CYP

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

 

1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.

[gvg 10]

Thank you very much for all your work! Very useful information!! Thank you and have a great weekend:)

[gosu 10]

Thanks, gosu, that was a very interesting post!

 

Did you check the congestion and retest part too?

 

I know, I am sooo lazy...

 

... if you haven't done it you bet I will look into it myself

 

Not for all days, just for the 2 exceptional days. See the spreadsheet. I didn't find anything revelatory, nor did I expect to because this is familiar territory. If this is new territory for you, I'm sure you'll learn more by looking into it yourself. Feel free to PM if you have any other questions.

[wshahan 10]

Reply to CYP

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

 

1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.

My bad, we went below 1375.50 in today's session. 1365.50 was in reference to yesterday's session in case we had a big breakdown.

 

Spookywill.