Week Two Trades-Spookywill

[wshahan 10]

8:25 AM CST

 

Pre opening comment

 

The Globex session double bottomed at 1360.50, and prices have rotated up through Friday’s high volume node and have reached Friday’s over/under price of 1374 which also is above Friday’s spike high. If prices remain above 1372, we will enter long. If they fail at 1374, we would expect rotation back towards Friday’s low.

 

At this juncture, we missed the trade off the Globex low; however, we have traded up through Friday’s high volume area, so look for a possible retest of Friday’s high.

Edited April 16, 2012 by wshahan
title mistake

[wshahan 10]

8:45 AM CST

 

 

We have an upside failure at the 1374 level. Go short for a retest of the Friday lows and possibly the Globex low.

 

The bottom of Friday's high volume node is 1369-1370, this is a support area. Penetrating here would lead to lower prices.

Edited April 16, 2012 by wshahan
add on

[wshahan 10]

10 AM CST

 

We got a retest of the Globex low, and so far it has held.

 

Prices dropped from our sell point at 1374 to 1360.75, one tick off the Globex low.

 

Day traders either met their profit targets and closed their positions or took a partial profit. 10 points in the ES is generally a good point to take at least a partial profit.

 

I took my profit and am observing. See below regarding rotation. Also see the post on spikes. Our highest probability for today was rotational trade within the spike area, and so far that is what we have gotten.

 

Volume and value continue to build at or just below Friday’s low, so we may get lower prices later in the session. We also could, one more time, get rotation back up towards the original high volume mode, 1369 to 1374.

 

I think the most likely case from a trader’s stand point is for another short to develop. This would be negated by taking out this mornings high. Only time will tell.

 

The original was to go long for a retest of Friday’s high with a recommendation to reverse if 1374 held. It did, so I reversed at 1373 and covered at 1362 when the Globex low held.

 

We now have 1366.50 as our high volume point. This level looks like it is going to fail, if it does, I will go short again for a run at the Globex low. The stop should be at 1368.

Edited April 16, 2012 by wshahan
wording

[wshahan 10]

10:47 AM CST

Update 2

 

There was a retracement and another opportunity to go short at my price or better. (1366.50)

 

We got a quick 4 points on the short fast. We now have a double bottom on the 30 min chart at 1362.50. True day traders can take a quick 3 points here (1363.50 or better..)

 

As I said before, prices could sit here for a while, but we continue to build volume lower.

 

Personally, I m going to wait for a retest of 1362.25. Then we will see if prices don’t go lower.

 

Spookywill

[wshahan 10]

11:01 am CST

Update 3

 

 

We have a three print selling shelf at 1362.25. This gives us a high probability for lower prices in the session.

[phantom 16]

Nice calls, Will.

 

Looks like your method is pretty straightforward:entries based on prior swing points. Sounds solid enough to me. Can't really see where one needs to see any backtesting data to substantiate the power of this methodology. (Not saying this to put anyone down, just stating my opinion).

 

Talk soon,

Phantom

[clmacdougall 11]

Could you please post a screenshot for us. It would help with clarity in trying to understand your previous posts. Thank you.

[wshahan 10]

12:12 PM CST

Update 4

 

If you took a profit on the short, here is another opportunity to reenter short at 1366.or better, stop at 1368.25.

 

Prices could go either way from here, but volume favors shorts.

 

Spookywill

[wshahan 10]

12:46, For some reason, this update did not post. What we have is the intra day trend change to the upside that I warned about. Do not attempt to fade it at this time, I will update.

 

 

 

12:12 PM CST

Update 5

 

________________________________________

Could you please post a screenshot for us. It would help with clarity in trying to understand your previous posts. Thank you.

 

 

My objective is for you to learn and “own” what I am doing. This means you need to have your own chats. I am using a standard o-h-l-c 30 minute bar chart with a volume histogram (volume at time) at the bottom. I also have a volume histogram on my dome for volume at price.

 

I am using the Open E Cry data feed if that helps. If you create my chart and post it, I will be happy to comment on it.

 

12:30 Update.

 

Prices are attempting to go higher. We now have a three print buying ledge at 1367, so we should get higher prices in the immediate term. You can go long at 1367 or lower.

Edited April 16, 2012 by wshahan

[wshahan 10]

1:43 Update.

 

I played the intra day trend change poorly, and I will discuss it after the close. I was too focused on volume and simply missed the price action/pattern development.

 

Right now we have volume dry up 1369.75, and we have a the potential for an exhaustion failure.

 

Prices will move from here, it could go either way. Conservative traders should stay out.

 

I am going to favor the short side here and I have entered short at 1369.50, stop at 1372.00

 

This is a highly aggressive trade, but it has a great risk/reward potential. Only time will tell.

[gosu 10]

Nice calls, Will.

 

Looks like your method is pretty straightforward:entries based on prior swing points. Sounds solid enough to me. Can't really see where one needs to see any backtesting data to substantiate the power of this methodology. (Not saying this to put anyone down, just stating my opinion).

 

Talk soon,

Phantom

 

And nice job to you Phantom of leading the cheer. But making snide remarks about another's request is unbecoming of a head cheerleader. You do not add anything to the Spookster's calls so if you can limit yourself to smiling and jumping up and down and baring your ass a little, the people in the stands watching will appreciate it. Cheers.

[wshahan 10]

3.07 CST Update.

 

I have an order in to close my short at 1364.50 which just got executed. As this is a day trading exercise, close now at 1364.50 or better for a 5 point profit.

 

Prices now got to 1362.75 so hopefully you got a better price than I did!

Edited April 16, 2012 by wshahan
wrong time

[phantom 16]

And nice job to you Phantom of leading the cheer...

 

Well, well. If it ain't my short, little, fat criticizing buddy from the West Coast! So glad to hear from ya, as always...

[wshahan 10]

[COLOR="DarkRed"]

MONDAY WRAP UP

[/color]

 

 

Today was another terrific trading day. Weopened the US session with a sharp decline lasting an hour. It resulted in a retest of the Globex low at 1360.50, reaching within one tick of that low. This was followed by two and a half hours of consolidation between 1362 and 1367 (Friday’s range low was 1363.75) and included a retest of the low which failed at 1361.75 at 11:00 AM CST.

 

From there we had a 90 minute rally to 1371.75 and failed. Prices then declined into the close, reaching a low at 3:05 CST of 1362.75.

 

The bottom line was we had a rotation al of trading at the low end of Friday’s range. Value continued to migrate lower with the high volume node in the 1364 to 1367 area down from 1370.50 to 1373 on Friday. The settlement was 1364.90 versus 1365, virtually unchanged.

Volume was marginally higher at 1,959,509 contracts.

 

I made 5 trade recommendations today, 4 of which made money, and one lost half a point. The trades are detailed as to rationale in the posts; here is a summary of the results. They returned a total of 21.5 ES points to anyone who followed them. I made one trading mistake which I will discuss in some detail in the hope it might be helpful to others.

 

Trades: Entry Time Long or Short Entry Price Exit Price Points gained or (lost)

 

1. 8:35 Short 1373.00 1364.00 11.0

 

2. 10:15 Short 1366.50 1363.00 3.5

 

3. 12:12 Short 1366.50 1367.00 (.5)

 

4. 12:35 Long 1367.00 1369.50 2.5

 

5. 1:35 Short 1369.50 1364.50 5.0

21.5 points

profit.

 

A very nice day!

 

Three positive days, twenty-seven more to go. Only time will tell.

 

 

 

 

My error was around trades 3 and 4. I was waiting for a break to new lower prices and I was focusing on the migration lower of volume. Thus I shorted for the second time at 1366.50. What I missed by focusing on volume was that we had a clear trend reversal pattern forming from 11.25 to 12:20 indicating prices were going higher. Had seen this, I would have gone long at 1363 or so instead of going short at 1366.50 only to have to reverse go long at 1367.

 

Either way, I go short at 1369.50.

 

What I did netted 2 points. Going long from 1363 would have netted 6.5 points, quite a difference.

 

 

The principle is to not have a stake in an outcome. In this case I was focused on a new low rather than being open to what the market was telling me. Today’s lack of being open only cost me 4 points on a big win day. I was lucky.

 

In the past this has been a very costly error for me. The trap was that by the time I figured out the problem, it had become very costly. Today I rarely get caught in this trap, and, like today, I don’t lose big money when I do. I share this with you in the hope that discussing situations that are difficult for me will help you become more conscious of them and possibly aid you in identifying them as problematic for you.

 

Hope it was helpful,

 

Spookywill

[wshahan 10]

417 7:51 AM CST

 

The Globex session tied the April 11th low at 1359.25 and then rebounded to 1373.50, slightly below yesterday’s Globex high of 1375.50. The housing numbers to date have had no effect on price.

 

While I see nothing to suggest we have reached a significant bottom, one has to respect the current strong price move from the Globex.

 

My premarket play was to short the e-mini at 1372.50, stop at 1374. Thus we are risking 1.5 points with a possible potential of trading to 1360 during the session.. The probability of this trade is so-so, but the risk/reward is eight to one. This is a trade I will take every day. And if I get stopped out, that is the cost of trading.

Edited April 17, 2012 by wshahan
time/date missing a digit

[wshahan 10]

8:03

 

I did get stopped out at 1374. I set my stop too low, it needed to be at yesterday's high, 1375.25.

 

The equities look like they will push higher on the USopening. I will look at it before making another trade.

 

Spookywill

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

My premarket play was to short the e-mini at 1372.50, stop at 1374.

 

...

 

 

 

Hi Will,

 

What was your rationale for this short?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Regards,

k

[wshahan 10]

8:20 AM CST

 

 

The NASDAQ is falling, andthe ES has held yesterday's high, so go short at 1373,25 or better, stop 1376.

[wshahan 10]

8:22 high risk trade, in at 1373.50, stop 1376, targets 1369, ultimately looking for the lows around 1360, then 1350.

[wshahan 10]

I got stopped out by 2 ticks (time now is 8:40 CST. My methodology expects to get stopped out frequently, it is the cost of doing business. Credit it to the Tuesday blahs.

[joshdance 10]

I got stopped out by 2 ticks (time now is 8:40 CST. My methodology expects to get stopped out frequently, it is the cost of doing business. Credit it to the Tuesday blahs.

 

I completely understand the pressure of posting trades online as I do it every day, and I make some utterly dumb trades, some yesterday in fact. In this case though, not so much Tuesday blahs as WAIT for the market open.. after such upside, it's almost a given that at the opening bell the market will at least TRY to push it up. It's so easy to see from a third party (like myself), when I'm not in your driver's seat as you are. So, not a criticism, just an unbiased perspective.

[wshahan 10]

8:56

 

1365 is our high volume area, and it failed a retest.1365 retest, so one more time, enter shortat 1374.50 or better. Stop 1377. just above today's high.

[wshahan 10]

10:CST.

 

 

I obviously got stopped out for the third time at 1377. No excuses, and I had ample time to get out with a small profit or to break even which I didn't take.

 

I will write about my mistakes this evening.

 

We are coming late to the party, and we are missing a pullback and a potential long trade entry while I am writing.

 

Three losses in a row, time to take a looong break.

 

 

 

Spookywill

[joshdance 10]

We are coming late to the party, and we are missing a pullback and a potential long trade entry while I am writing.

 

Actually this looks like the first good short opportunity of the day so far to me.

[wshahan 10]

10.50

 

You are so right, joshdance, I was impatient, and I sat and watched an overlapping bar in the 30 min. chart at 9:00 that clearly indicated higher prices. We traded down to 1371.25 an I just sat here and watched the reversal go to new highs. No excuse for that.

 

I was tired and half asleep and should not have been trading, and I know better than to trade in such a situation, but I was implusive and I did. Such is life. I took three losses in a row and that says back off.

 

Bad day,

 

Spookywill