Week Two- Spookywill and the E-mini

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

....also I had help from colleagues who worked in the programmed trade business...They pointed out that the progammers, being human, tend to use "time of day" as one ( "if/then" ) input for the activation of certain strategies...

 

Thanks for your reply, Steve.

 

I have to admit that I am rather dubious of the notion of algorithmic traders making widespread use of time based activation parameters, but it's not that difficult to test, so I'll be able to look at the data and report back for anyone else who's interested . . .

 

Cheers,

 

Bluehorseshoe

[wshahan 10]

Spookywill to steve46:

 

Reply from Spookywill to steve46

 

 

________________________________________

I'm sure this is just coincidence. My "understanding" is after all, very limited....but in the attached chart you can see price trying to take out 1370, closing above it briefly, then failing...

 

 

I agree with your entire statement above Steve. In the larger picture, my comment to you is: “Even a blind hog will find an acorn every now and then.” You missed the double bottom at approximately1361 and now the breakout at 1371. Prices managed to cross 1370 in both directions, so coincidence could be considered appropriate.

[onesmith 10]

A spike is an extremely long tailed pinbar at a price extreme.

A flag pole is an extremely strong trend with very little overlap between bars.

 

Please correct these and add your understanding of any subtle nuances.

[wshahan 10]

Spookywill reply to onesmith:

 

A spike is an extremely long tailed pinbar at a price extreme.

A flag pole is an extremely strong trend with very little overlap between bars.

Please correct these and add your understanding of any subtle nuances.

• Like

 

Onesmith,

 

My use of the term spike, as detailed in my spike writeup, was clearly referenced to Jim Dalton and his special situations which is a Market Profile concept. My use was accurate in that context.

 

As I stated in the write up that I posted yesterday and which apparently you haven't read, the spike probability for today was rotational trade within the spike area which is exactly what we got. In particular, the late afternoon short occurred from three ticks off the spike top.

 

Part of what I hope to do is encourage people to stretch a bit and to develop a methodology which is internalized and requires the use of the brain with no additional indicators etc. This concept of a spike fits into that criteria.

 

Hope this was helpful,

 

Spookywill

[steve46 12]

Spookywill to steve46:

 

Reply from Spookywill to steve46

 

 

________________________________________

I'm sure this is just coincidence. My "understanding" is after all, very limited....but in the attached chart you can see price trying to take out 1370, closing above it briefly, then failing...

 

 

I agree with your entire statement above Steve. In the larger picture, my comment to you is: “Even a blind hog will find an acorn every now and then.” You missed the double bottom at approximately1361 and now the breakout at 1371. Prices managed to cross 1370 in both directions, so coincidence could be considered appropriate.

 

Characterizing price as crossing in both directions is facile....and shortsighted...the fact is that price has returned to 1370 repeatedly...since you seem to have suffered a loss of short term memory, I will attach the chart....as can plainly be seen, price returns to 1370 in the afternoon session.

 

The reason for that return has to do with balance and imbalance of buy and sell orders. As long as the shorts control the market, it continues to be an easy reference point for a short entry...naturally you wouldn't have taken it, because as you mention "price is crossing that number in both directions"....right?

 

By the way, on my time based pivots worksheet for today...the important numbers were the previous daily and weekly open....for today those numbers were Weekly at 1375.25 and Daily at 1366.50.......those are potential entries depending on how I read the tape.....I have no problem with alternative interpretations of market action....but consider that when you suggest that I missed something.....without knowing what you are talking about, it makes you look ignorant.....

 

For those interested, professionals call this MATD which stands for "morning after a trend day"

although that price action has changed a bit...it no longer is confined to the next morning, the concept is valid....I continue to use it...for today the "balance" area is the middle blue band....traders tried to find buyers above, sellers below...if you scan left, you see the origin of that balance/imbalance area in the last candle of the previous day's action....THAT (I would suggest) is what real acceptance or rejection of value is about on an intraday basis....

Edited April 16, 2012 by steve46

[wshahan 10]

Spookywill reply to winstonsmith:

 

What caught my eye though, is you said you've been trading for 28 years...and recently blew out an account as recent as 2008.

 

When you nuked your account in '08 (not casting judgment, here either, torched one account myself before) were you using this same system you're now endorsing here?

 

Or, were you you using a different system alltogether?

 

Winston, blowing my account out in 2008 is what led me on the path to my current methodology. Good question.

[steve46 12]

Spookywill reply to winstonsmith:

 

What caught my eye though, is you said you've been trading for 28 years...and recently blew out an account as recent as 2008.

 

When you nuked your account in '08 (not casting judgment, here either, torched one account myself before) were you using this same system you're now endorsing here?

 

Or, were you you using a different system alltogether?

 

Winston, blowing my account out in 2008 is what led me on the path to my current methodology. Good question.

 

Losing money is quite a motivator...everyone who trades gets a taste of that bitter drink....everything else aside, you are to be congratulated for finding a method that works for you.

[wshahan 10]

Spookywill reply to steve46:

 

My guess is that you, Steve are not making money and hence are not a successful trader. I guess this for three reasons:

 

1. You are so defensive in your posts.

2. You depend on references to what other people are doing

3. You rely on so many external indicators that it would be impossible to have a system based on them that would work over a long period of time. Some of the indicators you describe I personally have experimented with a discarded. Your method of arriving at the 1370 number as you described it is inherently flawed, and there are much better ways to derive reference numbers. 1370 has clearly and obviously not been the best reference for the last three days as an example, and has only given you good trade position on very limited scalp positions like today. You missed all the big moves for the last three great trading days. So maybe you want to make a living scalping. I couldn’t do it I the S&P. But more importantly you are missing the big money based on what you have posted.

 

So I stand by my original statement, “Even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then.”

[steve46 12]

Totally out of context, as most of your comments are... As we speak, just a couple of hours after your chart posting, the market is breaching 1372 and still rising...there's 1373...

 

"My understanding is after all, very limited" -- You said it, not me!!!

 

Context is something that we create princess.....for example when you arrived here, you choose to suggest to us that you were a "nuclear engineer" and more recently the chief trader of an "Internet listed hedge fund" (thats a good one)....

 

I fully expect that at some point in the future you will claim to have been the Queen of England in another life....

[wshahan 10]

Spookywill to steve46

 

 

Losing money is quite a motivator...everyone who trades gets a taste of that bitter drink....everything else aside, you are to be congratulated for finding a method that works for you.

 

How true, how true! I appreciate the comment, Thanks.

 

Spookywill

[steve46 12]

Spookywill reply to steve46:

 

My guess is that you, Steve are not making money and hence are not a successful trader. I guess this for three reasons:

 

1. You are so defensive in your posts.

2. You depend on references to what other people are doing

3. You rely on so many external indicators that it would be impossible to have a system based on them that would work over a long period of time. Some of the indicators you describe I personally have experimented with a discarded. Your method of arriving at the 1370 number as you described it is inherently flawed, and there are much better ways to derive reference numbers. 1370 has clearly and obviously not been the best reference for the last three days as an example, and has only given you good trade position on very limited scalp positions like today. You missed all the big moves for the last three great trading days. So maybe you want to make a living scalping. I couldn’t do it I the S&P. But more importantly you are missing the big money based on what you have posted.

 

So I stand by my original statement, “Even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then.”

 

 

One of the things I enjoy about you is your ability to maintain a viewpoint even in the face of obvious "divergent" or problematic data....

 

Apparently the move from 1371 down to 1363 area is a "scalp"....

 

I think most folks would consider it a decent trade...

 

One gets the impression you've had something to drink

Edited April 16, 2012 by steve46

[phantom 16]

I fully expect that at some point in the future you will claim to have been the Queen of England in another life....

 

Good one...Almost as good as the delusion where you call yourself a trader...LMAO.

[steve46 12]

but perhaps not as good as you claiming to be a "nuclear engineer"....and more recently the head trader for an "Internet Listed Hedge Fund"......

 

What will it be next week champ? What do you think folks....Secret Agent?.....Brain Surgeon?

 

Navy Seal?.....Cross Dressing Postal Worker?.......Interior Decorating Ballerina...?

 

And since we are at it, what is the SEC registration ID of your "Hege Fund"? I would like to look it up. I am sure you are so proud of your work that you are more than willing to Identify your employer.....

 

Thanks

Steve

Edited April 17, 2012 by steve46

[wshahan 10]

Spookywill to steve46

 

 

One of the things I enjoy about you is your ability to maintain a viewpoint even in the face of obvious "divergent" or problematic data....

 

Apparently the move from 1371 down to 1363 area is a "scalp"....

 

I think most folks would consider it a decent trade...

 

One gets the impression you've had something to drink

• Like

 

 

One of the things I enjoy about you is that your comments are banal, externalized, and full of completely extraneous platitudes.

 

As for your trade, I put it in the blind hog category, even a blind hog hits 1371, er 1370 every once in a while. Wow, a whole 8 points. Sounds like a big day for you. I notice you don’t mention the big trade of the day, the short from 1375 to 1360.75. 1370 was a bystander in that one.

 

I also notice you completely avoided the key question I asked you, are you making Money?

[wshahan 10]

MONDAY WRAP UP

 

 

 

Today was another terrific trading day. We opened the US session with a sharp decline lasting an hour. It resulted in a retest of the Globex low at 1360.50, reaching within one tick of that low. This was followed by two and a half hours of consolidation between 1362 and 1367 (Friday’s range low was 1363.75) and included a retest of the low which failed at 1361.75 at 11:00 AM CST.

 

From there we had a 90 minute rally to 1371.75 and failed. Prices then declined into the close, reaching a low at 3:05 CST of 1362.75.

 

The bottom line was we had a rotation al of trading at the low end of Friday’s range. Value continued to migrate lower with the high volume node in the 1364 to 1367 area down from 1370.50 to 1373 on Friday. The settlement was 1364.90 versus 1365, virtually unchanged.

Volume was marginally higher at 1,959,509 contracts.

 

I made 5 trade recommendations today, 4 of which made money, and one lost half a point. The trades are detailed as to rationale in the posts; here is a summary of the results. They returned a total of 21.5 ES points to anyone who followed them. I made one trading mistake which I will discuss in some detail in the hope it might be helpful to others.

 

Trades: Entry Time Long or Short Entry Price Exit Price Points gained or (lost)

 

1. 8:35 Short 1373.00 1364.00 11.0

 

2. 10:15 Short 1366.50 1363.00 3.5

 

3. 12:12 Short 1366.50 1367.00 (.5)

 

4. 12:35 Long 1367.00 1369.50 2.5

 

5. 1:35 Short 1369.50 1364.50 5.0

21.5 points

profit.

 

A very nice day!

 

Three positive days, twenty-seven more to go. Only time will tell.

 

 

 

 

My error was around trades 3 and 4. I was waiting for a break to new lower prices and I was focusing on the migration lower of volume. Thus I shorted for the second time at 1366.50. What I missed by focusing on volume was that we had a clear trend reversal pattern forming from 11.25 to 12:20 indicating prices were going higher. Had seen this, I would have gone long at 1363 or so instead of going short at 1366.50 only to have to reverse go long at 1367.

 

Either way, I go short at 1369.50.

 

What I did netted 2 points. Going long from 1363 would have netted 6.5 points, quite a difference.

 

 

The principle is to not have a stake in an outcome. In this case I was focused on a new low rather than being open to what the market was telling me. Today’s lack of being open only cost me 4 points on a big win day. I was lucky.

 

In the past this has been a very costly error for me. The trap was that by the time I figured out the problem, it had become very costly. Today I rarely get caught in this trap, and, like today, I don’t lose big money when I do. I share this with you in the hope that discussing situations that are difficult for me will help you become more conscious of them and possibly aid you in identifying them as problematic for you.

 

Hope it was helpful,

 

Spookywill

[steve46 12]

Spookywill to steve46

 

 

One of the things I enjoy about you is your ability to maintain a viewpoint even in the face of obvious "divergent" or problematic data....

 

Apparently the move from 1371 down to 1363 area is a "scalp"....

 

I think most folks would consider it a decent trade...

 

One gets the impression you've had something to drink

• Like

 

 

One of the things I enjoy about you is that your comments are banal, externalized, and full of completely extraneous platitudes.

 

As for your trade, I put it in the blind hog category, even a blind hog hits 1371, er 1370 every once in a while. Wow, a whole 8 points. Sounds like a big day for you. I notice you don’t mention the big trade of the day, the short from 1375 to 1360.75. 1370 was a bystander in that one.

 

I also notice you completely avoided the key question I asked you, are you making Money?

 

I am doing pretty well, thanks for asking...

 

On the other hand, to date you have mostly made silly erroneous assumptions and offered passive-aggresive commentary and of course now you are graduating on to something more characteristic of a developmentally delayed teenager...

 

I think the tip off for me was when you decided to quote some obsolete crap about "spikes" from Dalton's book..now what was your backpedaling silly excuse for that...oh yes...it was a "Legacy Concept"...thats a good one...I will certainly remember that...

 

Ok so I have uncovered your real persona...that wasn't so difficult was it Sigmund...?

 

I believe we are done here....

[phantom 16]

I am sure you are so proud of your work that you are more than willing to Identify your employer.....

 

I'm not employed, moron. I'm in partnership.

And if you think I'm going to honor you with any information that's none of your business, you must be smoking crack.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Wow, this thread is really getting heated! I would point out that whilst not be required to like another member, we do ask all other members to respect each other.

 

Having said that, I think maybe a "pistols at dawn" style trading showdown would be appropriate here. I am happy to adjudicate. Each willing participant can send me a full daily account statement and after the period of maybe say 1 month, we can see who is better. p/l never lies boys...

[karoshiman 10]

Wow, this thread is really getting heated! I would point out that whilst not be required to like another member, we do ask all other members to respect each other.

 

Having said that, I think maybe a "pistols at dawn" style trading showdown would be appropriate here. I am happy to adjudicate. Each willing participant can send me a full daily account statement and after the period of maybe say 1 month, we can see who is better. p/l never lies boys...

 

 

But irrespective of the profitability of individual traders it still does not make sense to argue against or get out of line only because one has a different approach to trading.

 

I mean, everyone who is in this business for a while knows that there is not ONE holy grail in trading which you have to find or otherwise you fail. Everyone has to find what makes sense and works for him or her.

 

If you have a different opinion on certain aspects of someone's apporach you can state this in a respectful manner. And if such discussion leads to nowhere, move on.

 

It is the responsibility of the respective reader to be critical in what they read and possibly adopt in their trading.

 

Although I have a profitable method already, I am interested to hear different approaches as I am looking for any additional edge I can get. For instance, I've already optimized my existing methods based on comments I've read in this forum. That means I did not change my method, but got good ideas on how to extract more of what I already have.

 

Don't get me wrong, I would not recommend to copy someone else's approach blindly. But if it fits my style I will for sure incorporate it (or at least the parts which I like) into my trading arsenal.

 

I think, the moment you stop learning (i.e. looking for an edge) in this business is the moment the probability of failure increases enormously...

 

Sorry, this was off-topic... so, Will, please continue.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I mean, everyone who is in this business for a while knows that there is not ONE holy grail in trading which you have to find or otherwise you fail. Everyone has to find what makes sense and works for him or her.

 

Hell, you don't even need to know what you're doing at all! Trading decisions and actions in the heat of battle are what really make the difference. This is why even some very very good analysts end up appalling traders. They'll talk a great game though.

[phantom 16]

We do ask all other members to respect each other...

 

Problem is, gentlemen, that Steve46 has no respect for anyone, and is incapable of admitting mistakes.

 

But I will, at this point, admit guilt to feeding this fire by even acknowledging him in the first place. I respectfully apologize to the other members for this and will no longer entertain any dialogue with the man from this point forward...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Problem is, gentlemen, that Steve46 has no respect for anyone, and is incapable of admitting mistakes.

 

But I will, at this point, admit guilt to feeding this fire by even acknowledging him in the first place. I respectfully apologize to the other members for this and will no longer entertain any dialogue with the man from this point forward...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

 

So does that mean you won't take part in the trading challenge?

[onesmith 10]

decisions and actions in the heat of battle are what really make the difference.

 

 

With this in mind, that this evidence devoid of speculation is the only statement of fact, I encourage everyone to continue.

[phantom 16]

So does that mean you won't take part in the trading challenge?

 

Are you sure that you're a trader and not a journalist?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Are you sure that you're a trader and not a journalist?

 

lol ?