Short Term TF & ES Trading

[indextrader7 10]

Sorry I just realized the video is really hard to see the price. I was trying to make it so the trades could be seen easier. I'll figure it out. If someone really wants, I'll redo the vid with better price charts.

 

Here's a pic of the day's trades, where you can see price! Sorry.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

You'll hear in the video how my bias changed through the day. Downtrend (didn't work), uptrend (didn't work), then I saw the range and killed it for the rest of my session.

 

Thought that might be of value for bluehorseshoe and others

 

Thanks for your repliy. So you seem to work with three biases then:

 

1) Long

2) Short

3) Long and Short (ranging markets)

 

Have I understood that correctly?

 

Obviously the first two tend to be an expectation going into the day. Is the third ever an expectation before the day, or is it less anticipatory and more reactionary, as in the example above?

 

For intraday trading, what is the highest timeframe that you tend to reference?

 

Cheers,

 

Bluehorseshoe

[indextrader7 10]

Thanks for your repliy. So you seem to work with three biases then:

 

1) Long

2) Short

3) Long and Short (ranging markets)

 

Have I understood that correctly?

 

Obviously the first two tend to be an expectation going into the day. Is the third ever an expectation before the day, or is it less anticipatory and more reactionary, as in the example above?

 

For intraday trading, what is the highest timeframe that you tend to reference?

 

Cheers,

 

Bluehorseshoe

 

Yes, uptrend, downtrend, or range-bound. BUT I really don't have an expectation going into the day for any bias. I look at what the most recent price action says whenever I'm analyzing a chart - whether that's when I first fire up the screens in the AM, or my last trade of the day. What the most recent swings have done tells me the bias, then I make sure there's "room" if you will based on the longer term s/r.

 

5min charts are about as long as I ever look at.

[indextrader7 10]

....and..... I'm done for the day with that trade. Biggest win of the year. Video to follow.

[indextrader7 10]

+37 ticks

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYOeUWsVdPY]Trade Recap 4-19-12 - YouTube[/ame]

[indextrader7 10]

I kinda wish I would have kept trading today. Really nice moves. Hope you all did well.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Hello,

 

Having watched a few of your videos now, I'm beginning to gain a very general sense of how you trade. Would it be fair to say that you often tend to add to losing positions, or 'double down'?

 

Please don't think that is in any way a weighted question; I know a hell of a lot of people think its crazy to do so, but I'm not one of them. Although I trade 'all in, all out', if I had the choice of adding to a winning position or adding to a losing position, I would always choose the latter.

 

In your most recent video you allow profits on one contract to run significantly. What made you decide not to exit both contracts at the prior highs where you exited one contract? And what caused you to exit the second contract where you did?

 

Many thanks

 

BlueHorseshoe

[indextrader7 10]

Hello,

 

Having watched a few of your videos now, I'm beginning to gain a very general sense of how you trade. Would it be fair to say that you often tend to add to losing positions, or 'double down'?

 

Please don't think that is in any way a weighted question; I know a hell of a lot of people think its crazy to do so, but I'm not one of them. Although I trade 'all in, all out', if I had the choice of adding to a winning position or adding to a losing position, I would always choose the latter.

 

In your most recent video you allow profits on one contract to run significantly. What made you decide not to exit both contracts at the prior highs where you exited one contract? And what caused you to exit the second contract where you did?

 

Many thanks

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

I will add to a position if I feel like A) there is a reason from the charts B) If I were to lose on the multiple positions, it's still within my acceptable risk levels.

 

Yes, I did allow that one to run on the 2nd half. I exited 1/2 at the usual previous swing, and for the 2nd half, I watched the lower timeframe, and kept manually dragging my stop up as price continued to go vertical. Once it got to the next previous swing high, I exited that part. You can see it on the video as soon as you press play that it was at that level, as I had a resistance line drawn there.

[indextrader7 10]

Looking at the markets today, looks like there was some potential (easy to say in hidsight of course). It was nice to get out on the golf course, although I didn't shoot that good of a round... still love being out there.

 

Hope everyone killed it. Enjoy the weekend.

 

OH, I wanted to share something too... I came across this guy talking about trading stuff. Something that really stood out for me was how he said trading DOESN'T take discipline. He said if you really LOVE trading, it doesn't. Does it take discipline to provide for your children? Does it take discipline to go to the golf course if you love golf? No.

 

He says it's all about the love. All you need is to know when you'll get in & get out, and love doing this work. (He also made a reference to the importance of REALLY thinking of trading as work, to make sure you don't have some psychological issue about not deserving the money that consistent trading can bring you).

 

Just thought I'd share.

[indextrader7 10]

I'll be posting a "hindsight" review video shortly. It's something I always do when I don't trade a day, and it might help you guys see how I analyze charts.

[indextrader7 10]

Hindsight analysis today.

 

see post below, sorry it didn't embed for some reason here.

Edited April 21, 2012 by indextrader7

[indextrader7 10]

Hindsight review today.

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqQDPgPhbro]HINDSIGHT chart analysis 4-20-12 - YouTube[/ame]

[indextrader7 10]

Done trading for the day. Really focused on trading short term swings on my lowest timeframe today (50 tick). Took 18 trades in an hour, which is very busy for me. I'm kind of at that point in trading where I have a couple different ways I can trade profitably, and I'm trying to figure out what I enjoy the most, what works best, and what is applicable to different market environments.

 

Win % = 10/18 = 56%

 

Avg win = 7 ticks. Avg loss= 4.75 ticks.

 

Win:loss = 1.5

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ0sHYDL1x4]Trade Recap 4-23-12 - YouTube[/ame]

[indextrader7 10]

Here's some stats I keep up with to measure efficiency of my trading. It's a slightly different take on the old MAE/MFE concept combined with the trade efficiency concept. I've never seen them charted like this elsewhere.

 

TOP LEFT CHART - TOTAL EFFICIENCY

Tells me, from the time I entered the trade until the time I exited the trade, how many ticks I took from the market vs how many total ticks were available. Total available ticks would include ticks against my position, as well as ticks the market went in my favor beyond where I took profits.

 

TOP RIGHT CHART - ENTRY & EXIT EFFICIENCY

This breaks down the top left chart from total efficiency into it's component parts:

1) Entry efficiency = The difference in (entry price) and (max adverse excursion price). So it gives a representation (in ticks) how efficient my entry was. How much better could it have been?

2) Exit efficiency = The difference in (exit price) and (max favorable excursion price). So this tells me, ok you exited here, but how much better could your exit have been?

 

BOTTOM LEFT CHART - MAE, MFE, & AVG P/L OVER TIME

Each point plotted shows - ok for the last 10 trades you took, what was the farthest the market went in your favor (in ticks), what was the farthest it went against you (in ticks), and how many ticks did you average P/L for those 10 trades.

 

BOTTOM RIGHT CHART - MAE, MFE, P/L FOR LAST 10 TRADES

Each line represents a single trade. At the far left it shows how far that trade went against me (MAE), follow that line up to see how far it went in my favor (MFE), and then follow that same line to see where I closed out that trade within that range of MAE, AND MFE.

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Erm . . . Quiet thread, but I'm still reading . . .

 

Some days your charts seem to be dominated by horizontal support and resistance, and other days more by diagonal trend lines. What sort of process do you go through when deciding which areas you are most interested in?

 

BlueHorseshoe

[indextrader7 10]

The diagonal lines are something I used to rely almost completely on. The past few months I've been really only watching horiz s/r. Today, I just decided to trade super short term swings using trend lines and of course still watching s/r levels and overall market structure. I've not taken that many trades in that amount of time... maybe ever. Just a little experiment really. I like having a whole bag of tricks in my arsenal to bring out to fit market conditions. If we're in a smooth trending environment of course I wouldn't do what I did today, but if we're chopping around like we did this AM, then I can be in on the action without being whipsawed around like a straight trend follower, or breakout, or longer term person would be.

 

Having several different ways of trading...that might be too much for some people? I don't know. For me, I feel stronger knowing I can be profitable several different styles of trading.

[indextrader7 10]

Bluehorseshoe,

 

You got me thinking a bit about my use of trendlines vs using horizontal s/r levels. Thanks for the great questions you post all over traders lab. Your question made me have a mini discovery so I made a video just for you.

 

I hope you guys realize that TradeStation puts the entry and exits on my charts, not me, so I'm not making this stuff up. I couldn't change them, delete them, or anything. I tried just to make sure. Some of you probably already knew that, but I just wanted to share. Anyways....

 

This video is still of today's charts, it still shows the same trades I took today. I deleted all my trendlines, and went through and marked support and resistance levels.

 

You'll have to watch the video to see the discovery!

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30NVjbzICKw]Trade Recap 4-23-12 different review - YouTube[/ame]

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Hello,

 

Thanks for your reply and for the video clarification. I'm finding this thread very useful (and this despite the fact that I don't trade the Russell, I don't trade intraday, and I don't trade with the kind of discretion that you do).

 

If you're still open to suggestions for videos then I would be really interested to see something on order execution. Do you use limit orders for pullback entries, or just enter at the market each time?

 

Kind regards

 

BlueHorseshoe

[indextrader7 10]

Hello,

 

Thanks for your reply and for the video clarification. I'm finding this thread very useful (and this despite the fact that I don't trade the Russell, I don't trade intraday, and I don't trade with the kind of discretion that you do).

 

If you're still open to suggestions for videos then I would be really interested to see something on order execution. Do you use limit orders for pullback entries, or just enter at the market each time?

 

Kind regards

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

It depends on the speed of the market at the time I'd like to be in the market. In a slower condition a limit will do just fine, if the speed/momentum is picking up a bit, I'll hit the bid/ask (but that's also a limit if it doesn't immediately fill). If the market is flying from my safe risk/reward zone I'll just take what I can get with a market fill.

 

There is such a fine line in general between being early on a trade, and being late. I struggled for years to find the right balance of:

 

A) earlier entry (better risk/reward ratio, but you'll be wrong much more because of a lack of confirmation and your win% suffers) and...

 

B) more confirmation (worse risk/reward, but your win % will increase).

 

Ultimately you have to find a good balance between the two. I don't suppose anyone can have phenomenal avg win:avg loss AND a fantastic win%. I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR FROM SOMEONE WHO DOES. But my experience shows me that, given my knowledge and skillset, it's always a tradeoff (like most everything else in life).

 

Maybe

[indextrader7 10]

Made a couple live trades today. I'd received a couple requests to do so. Here you go:

 

Screenr - indextrader7: live trade

Got caught in a early trendline break, and added to the position at the 250 tick support level. Managed the first position to +1, and the 2nd to +15 ticks.

 

Screenr - indextrader7: trades

Short a trendline break at the top of the range.

Didn't work out immediately (result -5 ticks), so waited a bit....

Re-entered short on signs of downside movement again, and it didn't work out either. (-6 ticks)

 

Screenr - indextrader7: finally a nice win

Finally a nice winner. A gift of a trade.

I was long 4 contracts when I started the video (from the most recent blue dot).

Tightened stop, then took 1/2 off at previous resistance, then it just kept running and running and I manually moved my stop up with price action until stopped.

1st half off at +17 ticks

2nd half off at +39 ticks

[genasea 10]

IT7,

 

First off, thank you for taking the time to post your videos and commentary. They are greatly appreciated. I think your screenr videos are very effective, keep them up if you can.

 

In looking at the analysis you perform on your trades and the efficiency on entering, executing, and exiting the trades, it appears that you are well on the way to providing a good degree of quantitative data for your analysis. Great job in that department. I was wondering what tool you are using to perform your post-mortem trade analysis. It looks like it could be excel, but I am not certain. Can you go into a bit more detail on this, and how you are exporting the data out of tradestation to perform your analysis? Also, do you, or have you considered placing this into a larger repository (such as SQL Server or similar)? From a historical perspective, when you are into this with multiple thousands of trades, it may be a more efficient way to store this data, and allow you to run different statistical ad-hoc queries in an efficient manner. Your thoughts on this are appreciated.

 

Thank you again for your time and communication.

 

Genasea

[indextrader7 10]

+26 ticks

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaXdIAJzRYY]Trade Recap 4-24-12 - YouTube[/ame]

[indextrader7 10]

IT7,

 

First off, thank you for taking the time to post your videos and commentary. They are greatly appreciated. I think your screenr videos are very effective, keep them up if you can.

 

In looking at the analysis you perform on your trades and the efficiency on entering, executing, and exiting the trades, it appears that you are well on the way to providing a good degree of quantitative data for your analysis. Great job in that department. I was wondering what tool you are using to perform your post-mortem trade analysis. It looks like it could be excel, but I am not certain. Can you go into a bit more detail on this, and how you are exporting the data out of tradestation to perform your analysis? Also, do you, or have you considered placing this into a larger repository (such as SQL Server or similar)? From a historical perspective, when you are into this with multiple thousands of trades, it may be a more efficient way to store this data, and allow you to run different statistical ad-hoc queries in an efficient manner. Your thoughts on this are appreciated.

 

Thank you again for your time and communication.

 

Genasea

 

You're welcome! I'm glad it's useful to a few people.

 

Yes, I use excel for the analysis. I don't know of a way to export it from tradestation, so I enter the trade quantity, entry price, exit price, MAE, and MFE manually, then the rest of it calculates based on those data points. Plus tradestation doesn't recognize when multiple entries/exits are considered only one trade. So I do it myself.

 

I'm pretty good with excel, but I'm not really a tech guy. I don't know what SQL or ad hoc queries are... but I'll cross that bridge when it becomes necessary.

 

For now my focus is on trading only.

[indextrader7 10]

I've been carrying this thread on at multiple forums. I am consolidating my trading journal to one place because it's too much work keeping multiples.

 

I'll be over at Big Mike's Trading Forum. Journals section - "short term TF trading".

 

See you around.

[cma6 10]

Indextrader7, it is great that you started this TF thread.

The ICE site shows 0.964 correlation of $RUT and $SPX for period 1/1-9/8/2011.

I'm a long time stock trader and former ASE options market maker. I'm interested in getting started in TF.

I wonder if you (or other TF traders) could touch on practical issues for newbies:

FCM recommendations (pluses and minuses) and trading platforms used.

Thanks, CMA