Price Patterns

[Obsidian 10]

I thought my examples in post #1 were clear enough.

 

Last position was good for 30pips if you check next price bar but I closed for 22 (on the chart you can see that short position was opened at 1.6157)

 

and remember that I am not a signaling service. I can't get on the forum to post every trade I make :doh:

 

still I try to post whenever I am free..as I did in post #22... which was:

[joshdance 10]

I thought my examples in post #1 were clear enough.

 

Last position was good for 30pips if you check next price bar but I closed for 22 (on the chart you can see that short position was opened at 1.6157)

 

and remember that I am not a signaling service. I can't get on the forum to post every trade I make :doh:

 

still I try to post whenever I am free..as I did in post #22... which was:

 

No one is asking for a signaling service. But when you post a trade showing that it is already in profit, it makes it tougher to objectively see the entry in a neutral fashion, for me at least. What does it look like BEFORE, when it could go either way? That's where the real learning happens, by comparing the before and after, not just seeing the after.

 

Have you posted any losing trades? If you did, it would be productive as it shows exceptions to the pattern. Showing a trade that you took that's already well in profit only gives the false impression that the patterns always play out as expected, which of course we both know is not true.

[joshdance 10]

You mean .. something like this ?

 

No, I mean something like this. Entry posted. I will explain the entry later. The trade will either hit target 1 or it will hit my stop, or I will get out slightly before.

[joshdance 10]

No, I mean something like this. Entry posted. I will explain the entry later. The trade will either hit target 1 or it will hit my stop, or I will get out slightly before.

 

And here is the big picture entry premise, and the exit.

 

Big picture: the shaded area represents pretty major support, and was gapped below on the Sunday open, and was traded below today. The market traded back above it (54 particularly), and found support twice there after doing so. The second big picture daily shows we are trading strong volume, and have traded back into the range. Bullish, hence the 68 target. However, I closed both units here as I have had a good day and don't really want to play the overnight game today. But I would be very surprised if we do not trade there before we trade back below 55, if we close today above 55. But that's just my view.

 

I bought earlier today at the orange arrows, but that does not really help to know that does it? More important is seeing the pattern at my last entry as it stood when I snapped it and posted it, when it looked to some possibly like the market was ready to head back down in an afternoon push (which could happen, but is not that likely IMO).

[gosu 10]

* * *

I bought earlier today at the orange arrows, but that does not really help to know that does it? More important is seeing the pattern at my last entry as it stood when I snapped it and posted it, * * *

 

On the chart with the 2 arrows, you went long on the retrace after the switch and then before the BO of FTP. Nice entries.

 

On the more "important" chart you bought 2 contracts well after the BO in mid traverse at 54.5 with a stop loss 6 ticks away at 53 and a couple of arbitrary targets at 58.75 and 69.25.

 

So what makes the pattern on the second chart more important to you? Evidently I am missing something.

 

 

 

PS. Nevermind, I read your posts from earlier today and see what you meant. You are saying the more important chart is contemporaneous with your trade (like making a "call") and the chart with 2 arrows is after the fact so less worthy.

 

Don't mean to nitpick, Josh, but they are both after the fact. Personally I like your 2 arrow chart better but both charts are equally useful (or useless) to me. They are rather bare of any indications of how you arrived at your decisions. Of course that's from my own view of things, as I am drawing lines constantly.

 

Moreover, you place a lot of emphasis on making "calls" on a message board as if they have any instructional value. If you say you get something out of them, I am certainly not one to argue.

 

Cheers.

Edited May 8, 2012 by gosu

[wrbtrader 10]

...Moreover, you place a lot of emphasis on making "calls" on a message board as if they have any instructional value. If you say you get something out of them, I am certainly not one to argue.

 

Cheers.

 

I could be wrong but I thought this thread was about "price patterns" and not about "live calls".

 

The only way to do both would to first make a real-time live call and then later (when the person has free time) post a chart with annotation of the live call within the "price pattern". Thus, its impossible to post a real-time chart as a live call because in reality by the time someone logs into Traderslaboratory and attach a chart with commentary...its at best already a few minutes "after the fact".

 

Further, live calls without charts or without detailed reasons why a trade was being taken or without access to the trade method itself...its impossible for live calls to be educational. Thus, if someone wants to just explain "price patterns" they see...hindsight charts are good and educational but assuming the details of the price pattern is explained.

[joshdance 10]

On the more "important" chart you bought 2 contracts well after the BO in mid traverse at 54.5 with a stop loss 6 ticks away at 53 and a couple of arbitrary targets at 58.75 and 69.25.

 

I did not explain the targets, but the chart itself should have made that evident. If it's not, then perhaps it's enough to say that your "method" is not aligned with what these targets.

 

PS. Nevermind, I read your posts from earlier today and see what you meant. You are saying the more important chart is contemporaneous with your trade (like making a "call") and the chart with 2 arrows is after the fact so less worthy.

 

Correct.

 

Don't mean to nitpick, Josh, but they are both after the fact.

 

Yes, I didn't expect it to go quite so soon, I was as fast as I could be here, I still posted before it really popped though.

 

Personally I like your 2 arrow chart better but both charts are equally useful (or useless) to me. They are rather bare of any indications of how you arrived at your decisions. Of course that's from my own view of things, as I am drawing lines constantly.

 

I explained the premise, and one should be able to mentally draw a line at 54 as I explained it very clearly. I did not explain the premise on the earlier trades, nor the short I took before that either. I'm not for lines on a chart as you are so much; your charts and terminology are equally as confusing and useless to me, as you provide no translation for your "p2" and "traverse" and other words that provide no instructional value except for those who know the terminology, which is very few, and who themselves need no education on the subject matter.

 

Moreover, you place a lot of emphasis on making "calls" on a message board as if they have any instructional value. If you say you get something out of them, I am certainly not one to argue.

 

I do get something out of them. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can post a chart that explains a premise, why they went long here, etc., but it's all worthless to me. And anyone who thinks they get something out of it, ask yourself, has looking at other people's charts where they showed how they brilliantly took trades really helped you? If so, has it improved your trading? If so, great; if not, maybe the focus is in the wrong place. Trading is done at the right edge of the screen, and a 5 year old can find patterns, support and resistance, etc., after the market has made it clear. But most adults can not do it at the only time it matters.

[joshdance 10]

I could be wrong but I thought this thread was about "price patterns" and not about "live calls".

 

You're exactly right, and it wasn't my intention to turn it into that, only to see a chart as the pattern was identified, and THEN the result, not ONLY the result.

 

I will leave by posting a pattern that is nameless. I guess I would call it "Low Probability But Worth A Shot" -- I would normally wait a bit longer, but I must go to bed.

 

* Entry1 shows the bigger picture with prior support from 4/10 (low in 52s) and 4/23 (low 54s), with yet another ambiguous target (Monday highs).

* Entry2 shows volume support, granted, nothing to write home about, but at least some buyers are in this area.

* Entry3 shows that this is the 50% retrace from today's earlier LOD to HOD, and for kicks it's right at the VWAP too.

 

* The other chart shows the RTH bar -- a big, juicy, reversal bar that many have unknowingly taken from Martin Pring without knowing who he is, a "pinbar." The heavy volume is a plus. The chances of my stop at 51.25 not trading are slim, but given that I have to go to bed, it will have to do, and I would hate to wake up in a foul mood with a larger loss than what I'm willing to give it here (10 ticks. I would expect that there will be a LOT of buyers buying above yesterday's high in the 62s. Whether there will be follow through or not, I have no idea. It's too tempting to not break the high and at least lure in some buyers, even if the intention of the market is not to go north.

 

This is my price pattern. I'd feel much better if this area were being hit at 3AM when the exchanges in Europe were opening, but it is what it is. The beauty is, this type of pattern occurs very often, and this example need not work. Even if it fails miserably, something can be learned from it, and that is the point. First thing would be, wait for more confirmation if possible, alas, it's not at this hour for me.

 

Obsidian, I will leave your thread peacefully and hopefully not offending too much! I wish you much success in your trading.

[Obsidian 10]

I could be wrong but I thought this thread was about "price patterns" and not about "live calls".

 

The only way to do both would to first make a real-time live call and then later (when the person has free time) post a chart with annotation of the live call within the "price pattern". Thus, its impossible to post a real-time chart as a live call because in reality by the time someone logs into Traderslaboratory and attach a chart with commentary...its at best already a few minutes "after the fact".

 

Further, live calls without charts or without detailed reasons why a trade was being taken or without access to the trade method itself...its impossible for live calls to be educational. Thus, if someone wants to just explain "price patterns" they see...hindsight charts are good and educational but assuming the details of the price pattern is explained.

 

You are totally right, this thread is totally about price patterns which occurs from time to time. I somehow just try to show-share what I see often.

[SIUYA 11]

This is a nifty little pattern I look for.

Nothing special but it probably more a good profit taking point. Or reasonable way to punt a bounce.

Very simple, breaks above recent swing highs after a bigger move down move. Followed by an ABC down move, buy the first ABC up.

Small risk if it runs (one account has put this on as a quick trade) , but most likely tells me that a consolidation may occur, so take partial profits, all profits, OR be a bit more hesitant in adding to extra shorts. (my preferential choice in this case)

 

It just happens the timing is good for this as well. (when more time a better explanation if required)

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=28989&stc=1&d=1337163422

[SIUYA 11]

adding to yesterday.

There is nothing scientific about it, it requires a bit of an art, but if you follow some strict guidelines it gives you a good indication of a heads up. It works for any time frame - i use range bars as to me they give a clearer picture of the ebb and flow.

Its about looking for signs in the market that things have changed, and you should too.

(The blue dots are alerts for breaks)

 

Look for overlapping swing highs, ideally with a violent reaction and not a grinding wall of worry (these walls are usually better shorted),

a clear three wave retracement.....you have to assume that this is most likely to continue the downtrend.(except that you have been alerted by the overlapping violent retracement it may be different)

Look for the small break near the three wave wave equality level - likely to also co-incide with the previous low. (again nothing scientific - its an estimate)

It helps confirm to me that the recent downmove is going to take a break/rest.

(interestingly enough, while these things have occured 2-3 times on the way down, they did not make an immediate abc move up (signed by the break) They generally did not break, or were immediately preceded by a lower low of some sort - you need to see a higher low for the break mentioned to be worth it), ie; they didn't really do it))

Plus EVEN if you take a few of these and decide to get aggressively bullish and try and pick bottoms, the trade is likely to be very short lived and very inexpensive).

 

The next step is - what does this then mean for what I should do....

This all depends on the strategy you are employing, the time frame you are looking at etc; etc.

There are lots of ways to do it. You could emply a bullish strategy, but have really close stops, and take profits, you could be more discerning with your short entries, you could be more willing to take profits of shorts more quickly......

If you were in a longer term up trend, then why not try and pick the bottom of the retracement with the aim of letting it really run once on board. (not this time IMHO) so it allows you to time reentries into the trend.

 

But for me this is the context that allows me to make decisions about the best strategy to employ.

(one reason why I dont think there is a holy grail, or a one size fits all. Its about context, looking for patterns, application of flexible strategies and then doing all these in a repeatable, consistent manner - very contradictory )

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29002&stc=1&d=1337248085

Edited May 17, 2012 by SIUYA

[SIUYA 11]

just adding an idea of what you can do...

sell the rallies in the downtrend, when they start to move down again but take partial profits, moving the rest to break even.(Normally my preference but not in this case)

this allows you to book partial profits in case it continues to consolidate or rally, or build a bigger short in case it continues, but still giving comfort in locking in some profits.

If you are purely day trading, then you could look to take profits continually. (Occasionally you might get caught and wear a bigger loss, but its a numbers game) (My preference in this case - take partials, then trail the stop using a abc pattern again which has a possibility of forming as shown in the picture. But lets wait and see...... EDIT: stop moved to1.2704 if "close of the bar is above that (that one is for you Joshdance ) - (this might mean its stopped above this))

Or you could let it all ride.

 

Again nothing fancy about it. you could have entered in at any of the swings. This was just the most recent one I put on today almost randomly as i was waiting)

For me this means you can build big positions using lots of small trades, each of them having small risk.

 

( EDIT:-- One point that just shows here as well is that you dont need to get the timing spot on, or pick the top, apart from comfort sake, when trading with the trend (as you define it) to make money. Usually moves will continue, and you odds of picking the bottom and buying there are the same as you odds of picking the bottom and selling there. )

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29003&stc=1&d=1337250390

 

(Ps_ writing this stuff live time - is tough, and distracting - kudos to anyone who can do it.)

Edited May 17, 2012 by SIUYA

[SIUYA 11]

Similar price pattern, but in reverse.

Downtrend in place, a good rally against the downtrend.

The crossover of lows,or at least the touching of it alerts to look for opportunities to sell.

abc rally up, and you can either preempt it with a waiting sell, or wait for a down move to start and go with that, if you were aggressive, there was possible two gos at it.

The first no real abc had occured....however, these might be less likely if the downtrend is strong....worth a go IMHO, you could have had a 4-5 tick stop, or even moved to BE quickly.

2nd attempt definately worth it. again maybe a 7-9 tick stop.

 

On writing this - curently at 1.2710--1.2714, and not looking like its going on with it, when this is where I think it should accelerate down.....hence, move stop to BE.

(disclaimer - I did not take either of these trades as I was distracted doing a few other things and did loose a small amount earlier in the day pre-empting a short- for no apparent reason apart from a punt, and I was impatient. Trying to get on board early a few extra points :doh:....hence the vibe is not with me today - so I stopped trading. Additionally as its Friday afternoon and after about 3pm London time, I often find the move for the day becomes chop, me no likey)

 

Point is the same - small risk, patience, similar pattern similar, and stick to the knitting.

 

 

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29019&stc=1&d=1337351414

[SIUYA 11]

A great context pattern - you need either a lot of patience, or a lot of perserverance, but the payoff can be good.

 

The key to this one, is not so much in recognising it while its happening, but when you see it and if you manage to get on board - either by selling near the resistance, or some other measure (5w up, reversal off high) - the point on this pattern is the move with the trend is normally a fanstatic one to let it ride - take off your small profit targets. (on writing this it is currently at 1.2585)

 

Disclaimer: - I did get chopped this morning in that period - such is life - then managed to get some back -BUT i did not let it run, as I had left my TP switched on when I went to look at an apartment. Amateur error I seem to have done a few of those lately. :doh: no focus....

(these happen a lot when big trends occur - its the natural order of things....grind up, smash it down.)

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=29091&stc=1&d=1337782925

[Obsidian 10]

Another pattern I see on GBP/USD is V shaped formations...price drops (usually more than 70-80 pips) to a level and it starts to rise sharply in a short time. it rises very fast and passes above the highest point before it fell. Therefore they create a very nice hammer formation on longer time frame charts. At that point you understand that bullish momentum is strong and it will bring give you some pips

 

There was a good example on Friday:

price drops around 75pips then climbs all the way right away

[Obsidian 10]

here is a similar pattern (check post #1 pls) I see now

[Patuca 13]

Never forget that we are trading traders.

excellente statement that should always remain in forefront of ones mind at all times in any time frame.