Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Obsidian

Price Patterns

Recommended Posts

After some years, you start to memorize price movements. My favorite pair is GBP/USD so I watch it more carefully. I noticed that you can see very similar patterns over and over. I will share these patterns, maybe it will be helpful for you too.

 

30M chart

red line is 34 EMA

yellow line is 100 EMA

 

look and the charts and see how gbp/usd usually tests 34ema before it falls (or rises). First example is about bearish setups:

gbp-pat2.thumb.jpg.53529791e9352d2c909d87839bcb5a82.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
After some years, you start to memorize price movements. My favorite pair is GBP/USD so I watch it more carefully. I noticed that you can see very similar patterns over and over. I will share these patterns, maybe it will be helpful for you too.

 

30M chart

red line is 34 EMA

yellow line is 100 EMA

 

look and the charts and see how gbp/usd usually tests 34ema before it falls (or rises). First example is about bearish setups:

 

Hi Obsidian,

 

If you can share any price patterns from your experience that are based purely on price and not upon variable derivatives of it (such as exponential averages) then that would be really interesting.

 

Thanks

 

Bluehorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi BlueHorseshoe,

 

In fact ema is just a reference point. Maybe someone can find a math formula, ratio etc to reveal the secret behind those price behaviors, not me I am afraid.

 

I use it as re-entry point as well:

gbp-pat4.thumb.jpg.937e6d2dbf4e871c48f71a8ca607a799.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi BlueHorseshoe,

 

In fact ema is just a reference point. Maybe someone can find a math formula, ratio etc to reveal the secret behind those price behaviors, not me I am afraid.

 

I use it as re-entry point as well:

 

Hi Obsidian,

 

It looks as though your basic methodology is quite similar to mine - buying pullbacks in trends (although I don't trade intraday).

 

Through testing, however, I found that using MAs (or any other indicator mathematically derived from price) wasn't the best way to do this. A specific MA length will always prove optimal over historical data, but less optimal in actual live trading. I therefore tend to look for pullback behaviour that can be defined without any optimised variables such as the length of an MA. I was wondering if you have any insights into these types of price patterns within the British Pound?

 

Many thanks,

 

Bluehorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi BlueHorseshoe,

 

In fact ema is just a reference point. Maybe someone can find a math formula, ratio etc to reveal the secret behind those price behaviors, not me I am afraid.

 

I use it as re-entry point as well:

 

It is very common. In my Point of view the beauty of Technical studies is that there are rules and every trader follow them because studies are same for every trader who understand the Technical.

I consider it like Any Other Profession which is Study base(Doctor, Engineer Etc). Every one doing same stuff but only with his own style.... So don't be afraid...:cool:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It may be helpful over time to view price as the resulting actions of traders. When you view it that way, then think about who the traders are. Who meaning short term, long term, well capitalized, poorly capitalized, experienced, inexperienced, etc.

 

Then think about where or when each of the traders may enter. So, do you expect long term highly capitalized traders to react on a pull back you see on a 15 minute chart that is really no where in the middle of a daily range? Do you expect a pull back, that you see on anything < daily, to hold when the market you are watching is at the top of a multi month range because of who also may be deciding to take a trade?

 

There aren't simple answers to these questions, and you will get it wrong a lot but you can get them right if you are very familiar with the market you are trading. If you practice, you will be viewing the market as the action of traders instead of the movement of price, and you won't be wondering about mathematical formulas that will reveal secrets. When you do nail what is going on, you will be in the market benefiting from what is going on and more than compensating for the times you were completely wrong.

 

Never forget that we are trading traders. If it were math, then 2 + 2 would always = 4 and that just doesn't happen in the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It may be helpful over time to view price as the resulting actions of traders. When you view it that way, then think about who the traders are. Who meaning short term, long term, well capitalized, poorly capitalized, experienced, inexperienced, etc.

 

Thanks, MightyMouse - this has been an extremely thought provoking and useful post.

 

Cheers,

 

Bluehorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As these patterns occur 30m time frame it is very hard to see the exact price movements. I focus on gbp/usd since 2005 and I see these type of price movements happen often. Trades I took based on these have around %80 accuracy with 30-50pips profit. If happens after failing at a strong resistance, supported with hammer formation, I adjust my profit targets a bit...

 

Every pair has a different behavior and I noticed the pattern I posted happens only on gbp/usd...MA is only helping to identify the pattern. so MA is a part of the system but the system is not based on MA :cool:

 

As MM said price is a result of traders' actions. Traders do not change their behavior ;)

 

My long term trades are based on Ichimoku. I will post it next time.

 

ps 2+2= 3 if I am buying, 5 if I am selling :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Obsidian,

 

It looks as though your basic methodology is quite similar to mine - buying pullbacks in trends (although I don't trade intraday).

 

Through testing, however, I found that using MAs (or any other indicator mathematically derived from price) wasn't the best way to do this. A specific MA length will always prove optimal over historical data, but less optimal in actual live trading. I therefore tend to look for pullback behaviour that can be defined without any optimised variables such as the length of an MA. I was wondering if you have any insights into these types of price patterns within the British Pound?

 

Many thanks,

 

Bluehorseshoe

 

Hi Bluehorseshoe,

 

In your opinion what is the 'best way' to enter pullbacks within a trend?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
you will be viewing the market as the action of traders instead of the movement of price, and you won't be wondering about mathematical formulas that will reveal secrets.

...

Never forget that we are trading traders. If it were math, then 2 + 2 would always = 4 and that just doesn't happen in the market.

 

Excellent post MM, beautifully said. I was alluding to a similar concept here on another thread when I said this:

 

It's as if they worship the almighty "Price" and bow at his feet. The phrase "price then broke below..." irks me almost equally. Guess what guys? "Price" doesn't do anything. "Price" is not an entity. Now, the market can move up or down, but "price" cannot. Do you understand what a market is? Are you sure? Well, it's not the same as "price," and it's an important distinction.

 

You said it better than I could, but the intent is, I think, the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A rising wedge pattern is playing out to a "T" right now on crude (my favorite commodity to trade)....I'm not short yet....but have a conditional order in place to buy SCO (if shares of UCO aren't available to short) when /CL reaches $99.50...once crude gets close to, or reaches my target of $85, I'll buy to cover (or sell SCO)....then depending on market conditions...will then go long again

5aa710ebaf46e_CrudeDaily.PNG.fda3681263c864875f60021869232e39.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A rising wedge pattern is playing out to a "T" right now on crude (my favorite commodity to trade)....I'm not short yet....but have a conditional order in place to buy SCO (if shares of UCO aren't available to short) when /CL reaches $99.50...once crude gets close to, or reaches my target of $85, I'll buy to cover (or sell SCO)....then depending on market conditions...will then go long again

 

We were well on our way to the 60's, or so it seemed, before there was renewed middle east tension. The unknowns related to Iran probably have to play out first.

 

Unknowns = bombings

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Bluehorseshoe,

 

In your opinion what is the 'best way' to enter pullbacks within a trend?

 

Using patterns that concern price behaviour directly, rather than a technical derivative of it such as an EMA, tends to result in more robust performance, in my experience. This is not to say that the former isn't optimisable or couldn't be curve-fitted but . . . for some reason it is less suceptible to this than the latter. It is one step less 'removed', I suppose.

 

Sadly, however, I don't know the 'best' way to enter pullbacks.

 

Hope thats helpful.

 

Bluehorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another pattern I see on GBP/USD is V shaped formations...price drops (usually more than 70-80 pips) to a level and it starts to rise sharply in a short time. it rises very fast and passes above the highest point before it fell. Therefore they create a very nice hammer formation on longer time frame charts. At that point you understand that bullish momentum is strong and it will bring give you some pips ;)

gbpusd-b.thumb.jpg.56f63388d30609d36d3995dc8c4ebe3d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good pattern identification Obsidian. Now, the question is, can you:

 

- recognize these in real time, pull the trigger, and exit with a reasonable profit?

 

Pattern recognition is relatively easy (particularly when you already know the result :wink: ) -- the difficulty, the reason why so few do well, is the inability to execute. That should receive a much larger portion of attention than recognizing patterns, generally speaking, IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good pattern identification Obsidian. Now, the question is, can you:

 

- recognize these in real time, pull the trigger, and exit with a reasonable profit?

 

Pattern recognition is relatively easy (particularly when you already know the result :wink: ) -- the difficulty, the reason why so few do well, is the inability to execute. That should receive a much larger portion of attention than recognizing patterns, generally speaking, IMO.

 

Joshdance, I am trying to do but I don't trade full time so there are times that I miss these movements. Recognizing patterns may take time, so I focused on gbp/usd only. Besides I don't know if you can see similar patterns on other pairs. I doubt that.

From the charts I post (all pairs) you can see that I do not use any indicators (except ichimoku clouds). I feel more comfortable when I follow trend lines, patterns.

I will try to post here meantime if I can see any of these patterns.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[....] Never forget that we are trading traders. If it were math, then 2 + 2 would always = 4 and that just doesn't happen in the market.

 

Finally, on the 11th try one of the signalling services arrived en plus. The record is:

+60; -60; -60; +30; +67; -67; -43; +56; -51; +53; +59; (total +44)

 

Perhaps trading math is:

 

good + bad = futile (?) or

 

good + good = wait a little longer (?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah this is common stop run pattern, but sometimes it will continue. GBPUSD is always a bit more whippy than the other majors in this regard.

 

Another pattern I see on GBP/USD is V shaped formations...price drops (usually more than 70-80 pips) to a level and it starts to rise sharply in a short time. it rises very fast and passes above the highest point before it fell. Therefore they create a very nice hammer formation on longer time frame charts. At that point you understand that bullish momentum is strong and it will bring give you some pips ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
another ema34...it was good for 22 pips...

gbp/usd 30m chart:

 

Always like to see these things posted as they happen, especially as you are working on 30 minute charts. Anyone can see a good opportunity on a chart AFTER it has happened, but when you see the opportunity happen and post the chart before it pans out, then it gives the perspective for someone reading the post of seeing it as it appears at the right edge, with no hindsight bias.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.