Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

If filled at 14. My stop comes down to 30.25. I'll add again at 10, 6.75, and 4. Stop is always BE.

 

Your stop is BE on the whole position then? Will you trail it as a profit stop if the market continues down ? Or will you exit at some predetermined target?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Your stop is BE on the whole position then? Will you trail it as a profit stop if the market continues down ? Or will you exit at some predetermined target?

 

I got out of all.

 

I trail but not a fixed trail. I have my hard stop at BE on the whole position. I won't let a position that I added to go against me at all. It's really not a trail. I set a line in the sand which might be above or below the last add.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nice. Good for you . I appreciate you discussing your overnight trades as I do not have that as part of my plan.

 

I can no longer imagine trading es intra-day. I see the open as Sunday Night and the close as Friday night with brief periods of rest.

 

The negative is that you have to sleep with 1 eye open with alarms, etc, but the positive is that you can catch decent moves.

 

You can go back and see that in retrospect the entry wasn't the greatest nor was the exit. But, I made a decent chunk of change. Not too bad for mediocrity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think the low is in. But, I would like to see a change in direction. I will take a long at 17.75 on a stop. The volume over the last few down days was decent. Maybe overdone.

 

The last two days have been very balanced. To me, the highs aren't great but then neither are the lows. We're probably building up for a move. Are we waiting for something in particular and which way will we break? Does it even matter which way we break?

 

GDP and Michigan are Friday and NFP's are due next week. Clearly this whole Greece thing yesterday ("do they don't they" have a 2-yr budget plan extension) had people second guessing things. It could just be that the market is pausing for thought on the way down. So the next question is "which way is it easier for the market to move?"

 

Although the momentum should be down, new lows weren't forthcoming yesterday, but this could also tie into the pause theory. Tuesday's highs were also not taken out and that was an area between the last balance profile and the old one which we're now exploring. The lows haven't yet hit fantastic targets imo either so I would probably lean towards a further exploration lower. Whether and how that happens is up to the market. If we were to break higher and hold above 17.75, there could be at least a few short-term shorts in trouble and I'd look for a test of the 28's and go from there. We could break higher and fail back lower to catch a few breakout players off guard. I'm also now looking at the proximity of the 1396.50 area and my gut feeling is telling me that it's too close to hold if we do get there. That could also catch out a few bulls. In all, nothing is certain and we as always must plan for different eventualities. Uncertainties can be difficult to decide how to trade, but then you pay your money and take the chance you know?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32362&stc=1&d=1351153223

 

We are higher again overnight but still not breaking (yet). I would point out that these ideas are mainly based on RTH and although the market may hint at something if it moves higher overnight, what's most important to me at least is what it does in its primary session.

2012-10-25.thumb.jpg.6aee76e2e28e3ead0be2fcabb243530f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The last two days have been very balanced. To me, the highs aren't great but then neither are the lows. We're probably building up for a move. Are we waiting for something in particular and which way will we break? Does it even matter which way we break?

 

GDP and Michigan are Friday and NFP's are due next week. Clearly this whole Greece thing yesterday ("do they don't they" have a 2-yr budget plan extension) had people second guessing things. It could just be that the market is pausing for thought on the way down. So the next question is "which way is it easier for the market to move?"

 

Although the momentum should be down, new lows weren't forthcoming yesterday, but this could also tie into the pause theory. Tuesday's highs were also not taken out and that was an area between the last balance profile and the old one which we're now exploring. The lows haven't yet hit fantastic targets imo either so I would probably lean towards a further exploration lower. Whether and how that happens is up to the market. If we were to break higher and hold above 17.75, there could be at least a few short-term shorts in trouble and I'd look for a test of the 28's and go from there. We could break higher and fail back lower to catch a few breakout players off guard. I'm also now looking at the proximity of the 1396.50 area and my gut feeling is telling me that it's too close to hold if we do get there. That could also catch out a few bulls. In all, nothing is certain and we as always must plan for different eventualities. Uncertainties can be difficult to decide how to trade, but then you pay your money and take the chance you know?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32362&stc=1&d=1351153223

 

We are higher again overnight but still not breaking (yet). I would point out that these ideas are mainly based on RTH and although the market may hint at something if it moves higher overnight, what's most important to me at least is what it does in its primary session.

 

I think the slinky is ready to crawl upwards. There are plenty, plenty shorts who will start coughing up their positions as we retrace higher. It could extend up into the high 50's. I expect a grind up move on low volume and not a move similar to the move down.The 1430 area could be a problem. I won't add until we clear that.

 

I think the it is worth the risk to make what could be made and I will start a position at 17.75 on a stop. I like to see a clear change in direction before I enter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think the low is in. But, I would like to see a change in direction. I will take a long at 17.75 on a stop. The volume over the last few down days was decent. Maybe overdone.

If it hits your stop and then starts back down, what price will you exit at? How many times will you try to get into the long before leaving it alone?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If it hits your stop and then starts back down, what price will you exit at? How many times will you try to get into the long before leaving it alone?

 

It sucks when I get filled and it starts back down. I give it a total of 8 pts as a disaster stop. I will call an audible exit if I do not like the way order flow develops which means I may get out at a slight gain, slight loss, or if none of my triggers are triggered, then I lose 8 full points on my initial position. I have a very distinct set of rules that I follow while I am in the trade and don't leave anything up to emotion.

 

The most vulnerable time of a trade is the entry, therefore, my most objective set of rules is around the entry. When price has moved far enough away and I begin to add, then I use a BE stop, but also monitor price, time and volume to determine if I am going to stay in or get out. When the position gets large enough, the exit becomes more subjective than objective.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It sucks when I get filled and it starts back down. I give it a total of 8 pts as a disaster stop. I will call an audible exit if I do not like the way order flow develops which means I may get out at a slight gain, slight loss, or if none of my triggers are triggered, then I lose 8 full points on my initial position. I have a very distinct set of rules that I follow while I am in the trade and don't leave anything up to emotion.

 

The most vulnerable time of a trade is the entry, therefore, my most objective set of rules is around the entry. When price has moved far enough away and I begin to add, then I use a BE stop, but also monitor price, time and volume to determine if I am going to stay in or get out. When the position gets large enough, the exit becomes more subjective than objective.

 

A benefit of a stop entry is that if it doesn't go in the right direction, you do not get filled at all. You can be wrong and not pay. Life is good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought I'd update the picture of the bigger picture chart to show how 2012 balances have changed. It might look quite busy but it should be quite simple to look at the different aspects individually. The far left black line profile is the regular trading hours (rth) profile for the whole of 2012 so far. I've drawn in magenta outline of where I see developments (numbered 1-7 for reference) and horizontally highlighted low volume in yellow (unfair prices) and high volume in green (fair prices). I've drawn a profile for each balance and where there are higher prices the profile is green and lower the profile is red. I've also extended the volume point of control (vpoc - highest volume price) for each profile until it's been intersected.

 

A very simple conclusion is that this is the first lower balance since may-july. To me it makes little difference whether we are correcting or changing course in the longer term. I'll judge that as it unfolds. What I am seeing is that a drop back into development 5 was followed by a tight balance then a retest of higher value where dev 6 vpoc was rejected. Subsequently the whole of dev 5 has been explored without too much being found in the way of acceptable (fair and therefore balanced) prices bar the continuation of small range sideways action on veteran's day yesterday. Overnight the extreme low (prior unfair price) of dev 5 seems to have been rejected so far. This makes me think a retest of value for dev 5 might happen - although it's easier to target a certain area when then high volume is better defined than in dev 5. So it could well "reach up" anywhere up to say 1406.50 before deciding whether to balance, reverse, or push on higher. A drop below the 1366 dev low area could well mean a test of dev 4 "value" initially, probably at its vpoc (also 2012 vpoc) 1351.00 and the 2012 rth midpoint 1354.25. Below that there are various possible levels of support on the way to dev 4 low extreme at 1333.25.

 

Anyway, make of it what you will but hopefully that gives a little context to what has and might take place going forward.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32807&stc=1&d=1352810322

2012-11-13.thumb.jpg.ce5ec1daff10c1ff7662b0b79b79e49f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By adamal7
      Hello guys,
      I'm starting to swing trade commodities, especially soft commodities (corn, sugar, coffee, cotton, soybean, ...). I'm also checking gold and oil.
      My problem is I'd like to know what is the best broker for trading those markets (regulated, large commodity choice) ? For CFD trading.
      I'm thinking of IC MARKETS who are very good with forex and have good trading conditions.
      The concern I have is that I need a broker that offers MT4 as a platform, and also I'd like to be able to open mini lots positions for a better risk management.
      As a swing trader, I'm less concerned by the spread but looking at the financing fees.
      Wish you have a nice day, and thanks in advance.
      Alexandre.
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 22nd November 2024.   BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.   Asia & European Sessions:   Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia. The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open. The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50. Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver. Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too. Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%. Asian stocks rose after  Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia. Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction. European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially. Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally. Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.     Financial Markets Performance: The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00. Bitcoin currently at 99,300,  flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level. The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94. The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week. Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46. Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • A few trending stocks at support BAM MNKD RBBN at https://stockconsultant.com/?MNKD
    • BMBL Bumble stock watch, pull back to 7.94 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?BMBL
    • LUMN Lumen Technologies stock watch, pull back to 7.43 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUMN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.