Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion

[MightyMouse 12]

  MightyMouse said:

I'll add at 19.5. Very very doubtful it will get there by the close. I'll put it back in on Sunday night.

 

adding again at 1414.

[MightyMouse 12]

  MightyMouse said:

adding again at 1414.

 

If filled at 14. My stop comes down to 30.25.

 

I'll add again at 10, 6.75, and 4.

 

Stop is always BE.

[bakrob99 11]

  MightyMouse said:

If filled at 14. My stop comes down to 30.25. I'll add again at 10, 6.75, and 4. Stop is always BE.

 

Your stop is BE on the whole position then? Will you trail it as a profit stop if the market continues down ? Or will you exit at some predetermined target?

[MightyMouse 12]

  MightyMouse said:

If filled at 14. My stop comes down to 30.25.

 

I'll add again at 10, 6.75, and 4.

 

Stop is always BE.

 

OUT

Filled at 10. out of all at 9.25.

[MightyMouse 12]

  bakrob99 said:

Your stop is BE on the whole position then? Will you trail it as a profit stop if the market continues down ? Or will you exit at some predetermined target?

 

I got out of all.

 

I trail but not a fixed trail. I have my hard stop at BE on the whole position. I won't let a position that I added to go against me at all. It's really not a trail. I set a line in the sand which might be above or below the last add.

[bakrob99 11]

  MightyMouse said:

OUT

Filled at 10. out of all at 9.25.

 

Nice. Good for you . I appreciate you discussing your overnight trades as I do not have that as part of my plan.

[MightyMouse 12]

  bakrob99 said:

Nice. Good for you . I appreciate you discussing your overnight trades as I do not have that as part of my plan.

 

I can no longer imagine trading es intra-day. I see the open as Sunday Night and the close as Friday night with brief periods of rest.

 

The negative is that you have to sleep with 1 eye open with alarms, etc, but the positive is that you can catch decent moves.

 

You can go back and see that in retrospect the entry wasn't the greatest nor was the exit. But, I made a decent chunk of change. Not too bad for mediocrity

[MightyMouse 12]

I think the low is in. But, I would like to see a change in direction. I will take a long at 17.75 on a stop. The volume over the last few down days was decent. Maybe overdone.

[TheNegotiator 13]

  MightyMouse said:

I think the low is in. But, I would like to see a change in direction. I will take a long at 17.75 on a stop. The volume over the last few down days was decent. Maybe overdone.

 

The last two days have been very balanced. To me, the highs aren't great but then neither are the lows. We're probably building up for a move. Are we waiting for something in particular and which way will we break? Does it even matter which way we break?

 

GDP and Michigan are Friday and NFP's are due next week. Clearly this whole Greece thing yesterday ("do they don't they" have a 2-yr budget plan extension) had people second guessing things. It could just be that the market is pausing for thought on the way down. So the next question is "which way is it easier for the market to move?"

 

Although the momentum should be down, new lows weren't forthcoming yesterday, but this could also tie into the pause theory. Tuesday's highs were also not taken out and that was an area between the last balance profile and the old one which we're now exploring. The lows haven't yet hit fantastic targets imo either so I would probably lean towards a further exploration lower. Whether and how that happens is up to the market. If we were to break higher and hold above 17.75, there could be at least a few short-term shorts in trouble and I'd look for a test of the 28's and go from there. We could break higher and fail back lower to catch a few breakout players off guard. I'm also now looking at the proximity of the 1396.50 area and my gut feeling is telling me that it's too close to hold if we do get there. That could also catch out a few bulls. In all, nothing is certain and we as always must plan for different eventualities. Uncertainties can be difficult to decide how to trade, but then you pay your money and take the chance you know?

 

 

We are higher again overnight but still not breaking (yet). I would point out that these ideas are mainly based on RTH and although the market may hint at something if it moves higher overnight, what's most important to me at least is what it does in its primary session.

[MightyMouse 12]

  TheNegotiator said:

The last two days have been very balanced. To me, the highs aren't great but then neither are the lows. We're probably building up for a move. Are we waiting for something in particular and which way will we break? Does it even matter which way we break?

 

GDP and Michigan are Friday and NFP's are due next week. Clearly this whole Greece thing yesterday ("do they don't they" have a 2-yr budget plan extension) had people second guessing things. It could just be that the market is pausing for thought on the way down. So the next question is "which way is it easier for the market to move?"

 

Although the momentum should be down, new lows weren't forthcoming yesterday, but this could also tie into the pause theory. Tuesday's highs were also not taken out and that was an area between the last balance profile and the old one which we're now exploring. The lows haven't yet hit fantastic targets imo either so I would probably lean towards a further exploration lower. Whether and how that happens is up to the market. If we were to break higher and hold above 17.75, there could be at least a few short-term shorts in trouble and I'd look for a test of the 28's and go from there. We could break higher and fail back lower to catch a few breakout players off guard. I'm also now looking at the proximity of the 1396.50 area and my gut feeling is telling me that it's too close to hold if we do get there. That could also catch out a few bulls. In all, nothing is certain and we as always must plan for different eventualities. Uncertainties can be difficult to decide how to trade, but then you pay your money and take the chance you know?

 

 

We are higher again overnight but still not breaking (yet). I would point out that these ideas are mainly based on RTH and although the market may hint at something if it moves higher overnight, what's most important to me at least is what it does in its primary session.

 

I think the slinky is ready to crawl upwards. There are plenty, plenty shorts who will start coughing up their positions as we retrace higher. It could extend up into the high 50's. I expect a grind up move on low volume and not a move similar to the move down.The 1430 area could be a problem. I won't add until we clear that.

 

I think the it is worth the risk to make what could be made and I will start a position at 17.75 on a stop. I like to see a clear change in direction before I enter.

[bakrob99 11]

  MightyMouse said:

I think the low is in. But, I would like to see a change in direction. I will take a long at 17.75 on a stop. The volume over the last few down days was decent. Maybe overdone.

If it hits your stop and then starts back down, what price will you exit at? How many times will you try to get into the long before leaving it alone?

[MightyMouse 12]

  bakrob99 said:

If it hits your stop and then starts back down, what price will you exit at? How many times will you try to get into the long before leaving it alone?

 

It sucks when I get filled and it starts back down. I give it a total of 8 pts as a disaster stop. I will call an audible exit if I do not like the way order flow develops which means I may get out at a slight gain, slight loss, or if none of my triggers are triggered, then I lose 8 full points on my initial position. I have a very distinct set of rules that I follow while I am in the trade and don't leave anything up to emotion.

 

The most vulnerable time of a trade is the entry, therefore, my most objective set of rules is around the entry. When price has moved far enough away and I begin to add, then I use a BE stop, but also monitor price, time and volume to determine if I am going to stay in or get out. When the position gets large enough, the exit becomes more subjective than objective.

[MightyMouse 12]

  MightyMouse said:

It sucks when I get filled and it starts back down. I give it a total of 8 pts as a disaster stop. I will call an audible exit if I do not like the way order flow develops which means I may get out at a slight gain, slight loss, or if none of my triggers are triggered, then I lose 8 full points on my initial position. I have a very distinct set of rules that I follow while I am in the trade and don't leave anything up to emotion.

 

The most vulnerable time of a trade is the entry, therefore, my most objective set of rules is around the entry. When price has moved far enough away and I begin to add, then I use a BE stop, but also monitor price, time and volume to determine if I am going to stay in or get out. When the position gets large enough, the exit becomes more subjective than objective.

 

A benefit of a stop entry is that if it doesn't go in the right direction, you do not get filled at all. You can be wrong and not pay. Life is good.

[MightyMouse 12]

  MightyMouse said:

A benefit of a stop entry is that if it doesn't go in the right direction, you do not get filled at all. You can be wrong and not pay. Life is good.

 

Not taking a long at 1775

[TheNegotiator 13]

I thought I'd update the picture of the bigger picture chart to show how 2012 balances have changed. It might look quite busy but it should be quite simple to look at the different aspects individually. The far left black line profile is the regular trading hours (rth) profile for the whole of 2012 so far. I've drawn in magenta outline of where I see developments (numbered 1-7 for reference) and horizontally highlighted low volume in yellow (unfair prices) and high volume in green (fair prices). I've drawn a profile for each balance and where there are higher prices the profile is green and lower the profile is red. I've also extended the volume point of control (vpoc - highest volume price) for each profile until it's been intersected.

 

A very simple conclusion is that this is the first lower balance since may-july. To me it makes little difference whether we are correcting or changing course in the longer term. I'll judge that as it unfolds. What I am seeing is that a drop back into development 5 was followed by a tight balance then a retest of higher value where dev 6 vpoc was rejected. Subsequently the whole of dev 5 has been explored without too much being found in the way of acceptable (fair and therefore balanced) prices bar the continuation of small range sideways action on veteran's day yesterday. Overnight the extreme low (prior unfair price) of dev 5 seems to have been rejected so far. This makes me think a retest of value for dev 5 might happen - although it's easier to target a certain area when then high volume is better defined than in dev 5. So it could well "reach up" anywhere up to say 1406.50 before deciding whether to balance, reverse, or push on higher. A drop below the 1366 dev low area could well mean a test of dev 4 "value" initially, probably at its vpoc (also 2012 vpoc) 1351.00 and the 2012 rth midpoint 1354.25. Below that there are various possible levels of support on the way to dev 4 low extreme at 1333.25.

 

Anyway, make of it what you will but hopefully that gives a little context to what has and might take place going forward.

 

[bakrob99 11]

Perfect rejection/bounce this AM off the CLVN (66.50 area). What is the slope of your lower TL based on (or started at?)

Edited November 13, 2012 by bakrob99

[TheNegotiator 13]

  bakrob99 said:

Perfect rejection/bounce this AM off the CLVN (66.50 area). What is the sploe of your lower TL based on (or started at?)

 

:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

They are really just guesstimate guidelines at the moment. But if their timing coincides with with important prices and change in activity, they can become more useful to me.