Who Has A Strategy That Works??

[Blaiserboy 10]

Re Knight - I am sure their system worked most of the time, it just seems surprising that they had no big red get me out button for when it was not working. It seems they took too much of the trader out of it. To blow your company up that quickly is pretty scary.

 

 

The cheapest part of any strategy is waiting. While it does have its high times and is great when you get it wrong speed still kills.....maybe that's a road sign Knight might ironically adopt.

 

My nemesis has been impatience.....

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

Re Knight - I am sure their system worked most of the time, it just seems surprising that they had no big red get me out button for when it was not working. It seems they took too much of the trader out of it. To blow your company up that quickly is pretty scary.

 

they did not get bailed out, they have been diluted

Washington post -- "But the rescue, which came down to the wire, had a steep price: control of the firm. Knight’s new investors will gain a 73 percent stake in the company and three board seats. ......The value of current shareholders’ stake will also be heavily diluted. And Knight, which has removed the problem software and is still completing its own investigation of what went wrong, faces a difficult task of rebuilding trust with clients and persuading regulators that Wednesday’s disaster was an anomaly. Its stock has plunged 70 percent since last Tuesday, before the glitch happened."

 

The cheapest part of any strategy is waiting. While it does have its high times and is great when you get it wrong speed still kills.....maybe that's a road sign Knight might ironically adopt.

 

I never more than glance at the financial press and just knew they'd been 'rescued', so assumed they'd been bailed out with a cash injection. What the WP describes is clearly not such a favourable outcome for them, not to mention their investors.

 

Thanks for the correction.

 

I have also wondered about "red buttons". Literally pulling the plug isn't a solution unless you're flat the market or have zero risk, and then I suppose there are situations where unwinding a complicated series of interconnected positions without moving the market and worsening the situation is impossible. There's also the possibility that the "red button" function was entrusted to an algorithm, of course!

 

BlueHorseshoe

[4EverMaAT 10]

To answer the OP, there are two main explanations as to why successful traders may not post their winning system (or at least some of them)

 

1) they prefer to keep them in house. This is due either to adopting the scarcity model of economics, or just preference to not wanting too much of their business out on the street. You probably guessed that the scarcity model wins in the majority of cases.

 

2) they don't have a winning system (one that is consistently reproducible), but prefer to claim that they do.

 

My experience has shown that #2 is the case about 90% of the time. Humans love telling stories. Especially in Western culture, when there isn't a good explanation for something, we either ignore it altogether or if the object is so in-your-face that blatant ignorance is not feasible, we create powerful mythologies to explain what or why a phenomenon is happening. The good news is because the truth is obvious and readily accessible to all who want it, it is unnecessary to rely solely on guru or teacher.

 

I always liked this quote "The trader is the weakest link in any trading system" – Alexander Elder

Hi Tim,

 

If this is true (I would certainly tend to agree with you), then surely the solution is to take the trader out of the trading system as much as is possible?

 

BlueHorseshoe

 

Yes. Of course the trader's ego will resist with all its might :security:. Without the trader, the ego has nothing to latch onto.....no way to interject an opinion. The system could actually work as intended without interference.

 

To help answer the OP's question, Tams actually reminded us in the very first reply to this thread of the classic approach to buying and selling: buy low, sell high and vice versa. This basic approach to determining the best contract price to buy or sell will not change.

 

This is easy to do walking forward in real time, mainly because you have a real-time display of prices. You can always buy lower or sell higher based on the available price. So depending on your buying power (available margin), you can buy or sell an instrument in series and then accumulate net profits when prices move back in your favor (on a retracement). This is also known as cost averaging. Here is a spreadsheet to help practice working out numbers and determine appropriate levels of risk. There is another tool that works on metatrader 4 that closes out profit after equity target is reached.

 

There are advantages to automating the entire process, but that's for another thread.

Edited August 9, 2012 by 4EverMaAT

[koyasan 10]

To answer the OP, there are two main explanations as to why successful traders may not post their winning system (or at least some of them)

 

1) they prefer to keep them in house. This is due either to adopting the scarcity model of economics, or just preference to not wanting too much of their business out on the street. You probably guessed that the scarcity model wins in the majority of cases.

 

2) they don't have a winning system (one that is consistently reproducible), but prefer to claim that they do.

 

I think 1) applies more to institutional traders and 2) is rightly assigned to the delusional. However I believe there is a significant number of successful retail traders who do not post their winning system and I include myself among them. My reasons are to do with boundaries. A stranger knocks my door and tells me he has heard thet I make my living from trading and asks me to write out the details of my system so that he can be as successful as me. He also tells me that he will be back for further clarification and would I kindly keep him updated on any new tweaks I make to the system. Sure, no problem and thanks for calling.

 

Of course in real life a stranger would not knock my door with such a request but on the internet there is a pseudo intimacy which respects few boundaries. I've already gone further than my parents by 'talking to strangers' but sure as hell I'm not letting them into my home. Sucessful traders are hard working, focused and passionate and do share ideas and opinions but benevolence is reserved for the charities I support.

 

This is not an uncaring attitude and I've already mentioned in an earlier post on this thread how 'I fish'. I identify a trend and trade pullbacks.As long as the trend has more than one pullback I can make money on every trend except for the final pullback which turns into a trend reversal. There are numerous ways to identify a trend early enough to benefit from it and numerous ways to identify pull backs.Even a canned version of this could use Dow theory and a trend line and make money. If wannabee traders focused on this I am sure they could develope their own winning system and I do believe that ownership is central to success.

 

However go to a bookshop and look at the books devoted to diets and weight loss. The simple winning formula to lose weight is eat less and exercise more but who wants to hear that? Trade pullbacks in a trend.........start asking and answering questions around this and if you are as stubborn as me you will come up with your own winning system. No majic but just like losing weight it's all about hard work.Asking me to share my winning system is asking me to do the hard work for you.

[koyasan 10]

I like to believe in ghosts,in dreams,in mythology and the hero's journey. However I have long realised that trading strictly belongs in the real world and provides only the means for my indulgence in the other.

[Joseph Connors 10]

T

2) they don't have a winning system (one that is consistently reproducible), but prefer to claim that they do.

 

My experience has shown that #2 is the case about 90% of the time. Humans love telling stories. Especially in Western culture, when there isn't a good explanation for something, we either ignore it altogether or if the object is so in-your-face that blatant ignorance is not feasible, we create powerful mythologies to explain what or why a phenomenon is happening. The good news is because the truth is obvious and readily accessible to all who want it, it is unnecessary to rely solely on guru or teacher. {QUOTE}

 

I agree 100% with point #2. A lot of the so-called "successful traders" here and elsewhere are engaging in story telling. Thats why they are here. To have their egos stroked by newbies. Not all mind you. But 90% are. All you ever hear from these people is the same old non-specific cliches: "the trend is you friend", "buy low, sell high" and all the usual psycho babble! Its all true of course, but they never get specific about how they approach the market. EXACTLY how do they trade! They won't tell you because they don't trade profitably ... maybe not at all. I've heard this stuff for years and years. These forums are full of these people. I have a secret, but I won't tell you! It just gets old.

[Blaiserboy 10]

mitsubishi

 

LOL @ His HolyGrailness..............!:rofl:

 

Joseph Connors

 

I agree with your opinion of many of the 'successful' and vague guys...... however, there are some great threads where the thread starters go to great efforts to provide details of their methods.. I certainly appreciate those people. Earlier today I saw a thread that seemed interesting and the thread starter posted an idea that was new to me and has benefited me greatly in a few hours...

Edited August 10, 2012 by Blaiserboy

[MightyMouse 12]

If you want a strategy that works so that you can set it and forget it, then the strategy is to do the research to find someone who can take your money and earn a rate of return so that you do not have to to it.

 

As you wonder about strategies, markets are moving. Money is being made. Commodities, stocks, currencies are trending. Hop on one and make some money. Buy something and sell higher. If the suggestion to buy low and sell high isn't good enough for you, then I suggest that you are probably someone who always had everything given to him and expects everything to be that way. Mom put money in your account and all you had to do was go to the ATM and take it out. You will not find mommy in the market so stay out if that is what you are looking for.

 

There are no guarantees in trading. No ATM strategies. Stop dreaming. Markets are for people who have balls. Not people who dream of having balls.

[SIUYA 11]

T

2) they don't have a winning system (one that is consistently reproducible), but prefer to claim that they do.

 

My experience has shown that #2 is the case about 90% of the time. Humans love telling stories. Especially in Western culture, when there isn't a good explanation for something, we either ignore it altogether or if the object is so in-your-face that blatant ignorance is not feasible, we create powerful mythologies to explain what or why a phenomenon is happening. The good news is because the truth is obvious and readily accessible to all who want it, it is unnecessary to rely solely on guru or teacher. {QUOTE}

 

I agree 100% with point #2. A lot of the so-called "successful traders" here and elsewhere are engaging in story telling. Thats why they are here. To have their egos stroked by newbies. Not all mind you. But 90% are. All you ever hear from these people is the same old non-specific cliches: "the trend is you friend", "buy low, sell high" and all the usual psycho babble! Its all true of course, but they never get specific about how they approach the market. EXACTLY how do they trade! They won't tell you because they don't trade profitably ... maybe not at all. I've heard this stuff for years and years. These forums are full of these people. I have a secret, but I won't tell you! It just gets old.

 

Prepare for RANT.....

 

You know why those cliches get old - its when you keep hearing the same stuff and yet dont listen to it dont follow it or try and change it too much or try and make it an exact science......chasing the holy grail.

 

There is another option to add.....

3) they do have a winning system, but cant be defined by hard and fast rules that people seem to want to prove it can be tested if you take every single trade.

 

I am envious of the computer traders who can fully automate their systems - (I cannot -whether its for lack of skills, or not feeling i could get satisfactory results, or I just dont want to let go of the control) for this is as close as exact as you can get.

 

The completely STUPID things some traders want is an EXACT method for everything.

(you can hear them whining now - where is my stop, where is my target price, oh I got stopped out twice and missed the next trade), if you want that get a computer to do it for you, work out the numbers, optimise it and then get on with it.

 

IMHO - its f...n numbskulls who get on posts and keep saying but this rule did not work here, and there and say the basics of ride a trend, cut your losses etc is babble.....because the fact is they dont do the basics.

They chip away being profitable and then rip it all in two or three hits, they trade trends poorly because they dont run things, and they try and pick tops and bottoms when clearly the market bias is against them, and they fail to anticipate when the trend is changing and when to avoid chasing it. (they usually pick tops and then decide to go long only after the market has clearly changed direction and try to go long). you dont need to be a genius to open you eyes and see that a market is trending up or down - no matter how you want to define it - and trying to get to an exact method is half the problem -

 

If you dont do the basics right who cares about any other exact methods.

EXACT - that's another word that should be banned in trading.

 

End of RANT......

 

I agree with you for those who have a SECRET, but please please please dont mix the basics up with so called secret scammers.

Its like asking a sports person/musician/artist - how do you do it, give an exact method,

 

(I had a drink last night with my partners colleague - he runs two funds investing in Asia, one is a long short fund, the other long only total AUM approx $200m, and he is a fundamental investor - he said a very topical thing last night - one you often hear from technical traders - and I asked him to repeat it as I wanted to get his exact words as I could not have agreed with him more - "There is no point basing your trades on other people opinions and ideas (methods), you have to base it on your own and sticking to the basics is what its all about" - in other words not much is different in any style)

[koyasan 10]

All you ever hear from these people is the same old non-specific cliches: "the trend is you friend", "buy low, sell high" and all the usual psycho babble! Its all true of course, but they never get specific about how they approach the market. EXACTLY how do they trade! They won't tell you because they don't trade profitably ... maybe not at all. I've heard this stuff for years and years. These forums are full of these people. I have a secret, but I won't tell you! It just gets old.

 

I'm not saying your remarks are aimed at me but they certainly don't apply to me. I've given the reasons why I personally don't spend the time explaining my system and I have given the rationale behind how I trade. The point I am trying to make is that there is no secret about trading , it is all about accepting a certain logic in the market (in my case trend trading) and working hard to translate into a setup and execution.

 

To show my good faith this is my challenge to you..........read through my posts about my rationale and ask me one very specific question about any aspect and I will give you a very specific answer.......so you do the work regarding what you regard as a key question and I will give you my answer......just don't expect me (or anyone else) to write a manual for you otherwise we are back to the stranger knocking on the door scenario.

[SIUYA 11]

its been shown before and its worth showing again.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SdHlfsA0P4&feature=r-vrec

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

If you want a strategy that works so that you can set it and forget it, then the strategy is to do the research to find someone who can take your money and earn a rate of return so that you do not have to to it.

 

As you wonder about strategies, markets are moving. Money is being made. Commodities, stocks, currencies are trending. Hop on one and make some money. Buy something and sell higher. If the suggestion to buy low and sell high isn't good enough for you, then I suggest that you are probably someone who always had everything given to him and expects everything to be that way. Mom put money in your account and all you had to do was go to the ATM and take it out. You will not find mommy in the market so stay out if that is what you are looking for.

 

There are no guarantees in trading. No ATM strategies. Stop dreaming. Markets are for people who have balls. Not people who dream of having balls.

 

Probably the best post I've read on here in a while.

 

BlueHorseshoe

[joshdance 10]

MM and Siuya, dead on.

[Joseph Connors 10]

 

With this post,a repeat of a post you made several weeks ago,you appear to be a one trick pony- a lame pony making no progress.And you admit the condition has being going on for years now...mmm

Forgive me if you have contributed something of interest elsewhere here- i still have not seen it and i'm not exactly motivated to check your profile to find out.

Why not name names? or would that be a bit too controversial for you?

 

Since it's clear you're the kind of guy that thinks others (complete strangers,even) should bust their gut in order to spoon feed you,i will from now on,refer to you as "spooner"

 

 

Anyone remember the "self entitlement trend" i talked about here?:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/11608-taking-blinders-off-trading-mind-8.html

 

Spooner fits the profile.."EXACTLY"

 

 

This guy is a fully paid up member

 

 

You seem to want to make this personal for some reason. Ok, you say I have not contributed, exactly how have you contributed? I have not contributed, but then again, I'm not the one claiming to have answers. I'm not asking for anyone to "spoon feed" me. Just don't feed me a lot of BS and tired old cliches and claims of competency as a trader without proving it by being specific. BTW, what do you mean by "naming names" and how am I asking anyone to "bust their gut"? Posting a simple strategy that they employ is asking too much?

 

I'm just asking that those who are claiming they trade profitably and have the answers, prove it by being specific about how they trade. If someone has a strategy that works, its probably dead simple. Most things that work are. It should be simple to communicate it to everyone. I understand that one strategy does not fit all, but why not give others a chance to "try it on for size" and see if it fits? If you are afraid that if your strategy gets out it will not work anymore, I think you have nothing to fear. Odds are its already being employed by others and how many people are going to read this thread and employ it?

 

 

I'm just trying to point out to some that not everyone is as they appear to be. There are many charlatans out there! There are all kinds of generalizations that are made which are passed around and provide no details on specific strategies. If someone is not going to be specific, what is the point? The generally accepted rules of trading are everywhere and do not need to be constantly repeated ad-nauseum. The OP was asking for a "Strategy That Works". If someone has one, post it. If not, why bother everyone with "I have a strategy that works, but I won't tell you".

[MightyMouse 12]

 

 

You seem to want to make this personal for some reason. Ok, you say I have not contributed, exactly how have you contributed? I have not contributed, but then again, I'm not the one claiming to have answers. I'm not asking for anyone to "spoon feed" me. Just don't feed me a lot of BS and tired old cliches and claims of competency as a trader without proving it by being specific. BTW, what do you mean by "naming names" and how am I asking anyone to "bust their gut"? Posting a simple strategy that they employ is asking too much?

 

I'm just asking that those who are claiming they trade profitably and have the answers, prove it by being specific about how they trade. If someone has a strategy that works, its probably dead simple. Most things that work are. It should be simple to communicate it to everyone. I understand that one strategy does not fit all, but why not give others a chance to "try it on for size" and see if it fits? If you are afraid that if your strategy gets out it will not work anymore, I think you have nothing to fear. Odds are its already being employed by others and how many people are going to read this thread and employ it?

 

 

I'm just trying to point out to some that not everyone is as they appear to be. There are many charlatans out there! There are all kinds of generalizations that are made which are passed around and provide no details on specific strategies. If someone is not going to be specific, what is the point? The generally accepted rules of trading are everywhere and do not need to be constantly repeated ad-nauseum. The OP was asking for a "Strategy That Works". If someone has one, post it. If not, why bother everyone with "I have a strategy that works, but I won't tell you".

 

at this point, what is your point?

 

Do you want a strategy that works?

 

Do you think that no one here has a strategy that works?

 

Do you believe that a person can make money in the markets?

 

I will still maintain that the OP needs magic to make money in the market.

[koyasan 10]

I'm just asking that those who are claiming they trade profitably and have the answers, prove it by being specific about how they trade..

 

I've quoted just a line of what you said because it really does'nt hold up. If I spent the time to be very specific about how I trade it only proves one thing..that I can be specific about how I trade. It does not prove that my method is profitable either for me or for you.For that to happen you would have to follow my methods exactly and risk your hard earned cash to prove me either correct or wrong. Why on earth would you do that? Look at my earlier post for the stranger knocking on the door scenario.........what about the reverse? I knock on your door and tell you that I have a winning system and if you have a spare $20000 in a broker account you can try it out.........if it works you can make a living and if it fails..... well who knows what drawdown you would have. You would be mad to take me at my word.

 

Joseph, I will concede that you do have a point about some people who claim to have a winning strategy but are short on specifics. For whatever reason (who cares?) they derive some benefit from saying they are one thing when the opposite is closer to the truth. However I think you should acknowledge that there are people here that are sucessful and have very sound reasons why they do not post the specific details of their strategy and that too has to be respected. Any one can ask any question they like without an obligation on anyone to post the answer. Not posting an answer does not mean they are fraudsters.

 

I claim to be a successful trader and you want me to prove it by being specific about my strategy. I hope now you will rethink that the proof of being profitable goes beyond being specific. Of far more value is my rationale for trading and I've already given the details in my earlier post. I only trade Aud/Usd futures....30min time frame...identify trend (long or short)...enter on first pull back......look for risk reward min 2:1. Of course I am short on detailing specifics but I'm not sitting down to write a book...........which is why to show good faith I have also offered to be specific in an answer to a specific question you might have (I assume you are really interested in specifics?).

 

Maybe I am not a sucessful trader and maybe tomorrow morning I am flying off to beautiful Chiang Mai paid for by income I have made outside of trading. Maybe tomorrow morning I am going nowhere and I'm really typing this when the warden is having his break. At my age I have nothing to prove to anyone. Whatever you choose to believe I am off line for the next week.....but I still hope you will give me the opportunity to answer a specific question you may have about my trading. Meanwhile why don't you share at least your rationale for your trading?

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

If someone is not going to be specific, what is the point?

 

Hi Joseph,

 

I totally agree with you, contrary to what everyone else on here seems to think (probably because they're all losers!).

 

That's why I have decided to share with you the real specifics of how I trade. Over the past ten years I have averaged an annual return of 87%, which for me has equated to an actual pre-tax profit of around $3.4 million.

 

I trade the ES from a fifteen minute chart.

 

BUY signal for a long entry (for shorts rules are reversed):

 

1. Gold is trending above its 3sma AND

2. The ES has traded below yesterday's daily pivot AND

3. The 18 period slow stochastic has crossed over its signal line AND

4. T-notes have gapped down on the day AND

5. A 35 period exponential average of the $VIX is higher than at this time yesterday AND

6. Volume in the NQ is greater than 2000 per five minute bar AND

7. The GRAB indicator is above 2 RPM.

 

I use a two point stop and a four point target, giving an excellent risk:reward ratio when you consider that I have averaged a 79% win rate.

 

I hope that was the answer that you were searching for, and good luck trading!

 

BlueHorseshoe

[joshdance 10]

I'm just asking that those who are claiming they trade profitably and have the answers, prove it by being specific about how they trade. If someone has a strategy that works, its probably dead simple. Most things that work are. It should be simple to communicate it to everyone.

...

I'm just trying to point out to some that not everyone is as they appear to be. There are many charlatans out there! There are all kinds of generalizations that are made which are passed around and provide no details on specific strategies. If someone is not going to be specific, what is the point? The generally accepted rules of trading are everywhere and do not need to be constantly repeated ad-nauseum. The OP was asking for a "Strategy That Works". If someone has one, post it. If not, why bother everyone with "I have a strategy that works, but I won't tell you".

 

Joseph, I agree with you that charlatans are everywhere in the trading world. As are liars who are looking to have their ego stroked by the unwashed masses. And I also agree that people who post on this thread that they are successful, have strategies, etc., without giving any more information than that, simply are wasting server space.

 

If this bothers you, the best thing you can do is unsubscribe to this thread. Let it go. But seeing that you are persisting, be aware that you and the original poster are asking the wrong questions. You also asked the wrong question three years ago in your third post on this site:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/day-trading-scalping/6862-idea-850-two-1-tick-trades.html#post77606

Can you give us any details on your strategy? 3-5 trades per day sounds like the volume of trading that I am looking for. Thanks!

 

It's 2012--why are you pursuing the same pipe dream and chasing the same goose you were three years ago? I encourage you to read "Hedge Fund Market Wizards" or any of the MW series. You will find many examples of very diverse traders and trading strategies that they employ. The one constant is that they all are using strategies that work for THEM. Some of those strategies are 99% mechanical and need very little trader intervention, but when they do, the trader is the owner of the strategy and has developed it from the ground up, and can therefore change it to adapt to market conditions. Others are discretionary traders, and can't even describe specifically how they trade on a daily basis.

 

You are aiming the arrow at the wrong target, guaranteeing that if you leave it as is, you will never hit the mark.

 

I highly recommend watching this video--it's less than an hour long and contains none of the answers to questions you are asking, but all the right answers to the good questions:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SdHlfsA0P4]Winning Methods of the Market Wizard - Jack Schwagger - YouTube[/ame]

[stockduck 10]

Looks great! But just 4 points win is not enough for small account...

 

Hi Joseph,

 

I totally agree with you, contrary to what everyone else on here seems to think (probably because they're all losers!).

 

That's why I have decided to share with you the real specifics of how I trade. Over the past ten years I have averaged an annual return of 87%, which for me has equated to an actual pre-tax profit of around $3.4 million.

 

I trade the ES from a fifteen minute chart.

 

BUY signal for a long entry (for shorts rules are reversed):

 

1. Gold is trending above its 3sma AND

2. The ES has traded below yesterday's daily pivot AND

3. The 18 period slow stochastic has crossed over its signal line AND

4. T-notes have gapped down on the day AND

5. A 35 period exponential average of the $VIX is higher than at this time yesterday AND

6. Volume in the NQ is greater than 2000 per five minute bar AND

7. The GRAB indicator is above 2 RPM.

 

I use a two point stop and a four point target, giving an excellent risk:reward ratio when you consider that I have averaged a 79% win rate.

 

I hope that was the answer that you were searching for, and good luck trading!

 

BlueHorseshoe