Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MTnews

Daily Market Commentary

Recommended Posts

The session provided several nice trading opportunities for day traders and investors through out the day. Overall, the major indices were definitely confused with a consistent battle between the Bulls and the Bears with neither, taking full control of the market session. At the end of the trading day, here is how the major indices ended the session: the DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) moved lower today by 48.23 points to end the session at 12738.41; the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) moved lower by 20.40 points to end at 9433.53; the NASDAQ moved higher by 5.38 points to close at 2518.42; the S&P 500 moved lower by 2.05 points to end at 1457.63 and the RUSSELL 2000 moved higher by 1.22 points to close at 827.33. The FTSE All-World Index ex-US (top Large/Mid Cap aggregate from over 2,700 stocks from the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) which covers 90% of the worlds investable market capitalization) moved lower by 0.63 to close at 247.09 and the FTSE RAFI 1000 moved lower by 11.71 to end at 6134.49 for the day.

 

Federal Reserve Board Member Donald L. Kohn commented today: must guard against moral hazard in stemming crises; global interest rates 'low' by historical standards; current account imbalances 'unprecedented'; current financial market conditions 'very settled'; can't rule out future financial crises; financial markets priced for 'benign' outlook and financial markets have been resilient to geopolitics.

 

President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Janet L. Yellen commented today: concerned about upside inflation risks; policy well positioned for inflation to move down; supports bias in policy toward tightening; core inflation on high side, it has begun to 'ebb modestly'; January Core Consumer Price Index on 'high side' of expectations; economy soft landing 'most likely outcome'; signs of stabilization in housing market; housing drag on Gross Domestic Product may wane later this year; no spillover from housing to consumer spending; rising delinquencies only affect small part of market; CDS investors see mortgage losses likely fairly contained; price pressure from energy likely to dissipate; labor market strength poses risk to inflation; economy doing well outside of housing and autos; inflation target could help with price, job goals and top concern still housing slowdown, but it's easing.

 

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole commented today: Fed ready to act if inflation doesn't tame; doesn't know result of inflation target discussion; turnover at Fed won't affect policy; no big discord among economists on Fed policies and commented that we should not read too much into January Consumer Price Index data.

 

Economic data released for the day:

 

MBA Purchase Applications: Compilation from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association of various mortgage loan indexes. This data is the leading indicator for single-family home sales as well as, housing construction. U.S. MBA Market Index fell by 5.2% to 606.6 from 639.8; U.S. MBA Purchase Index fell by 4.8% to 381.4 from 400.7 and U.S. MBA Refinancing Index fell by 5.4% to 1921.1 from 2031.7.

 

ICSC-UBS Store Sales: Weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains which is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales, as reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers. This date accounts for approximately 10% of total retail sales. ICSC-UBS Chain Store Sales were down by 0.1% for week of February 17th.

 

Consumer Price Index: The measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers; monthly changes represent the rate of inflation. U.S. Real Average Weekly Earnings fell by 0.3% in January; U.S. January CPI Energy Prices fell by 1.5%; U.S. January CPI Food Prices rose by 0.7%; U.S. January CPI Unrounded increase by 0.174%; U.S. January CPI Core rose by 0.256%; U.S. January CPI Excluding Food & Energy rose by 0.3% as compared to consensus of an increase of 0.2% and U.S. January Consumer Prices rose by 0.2% as compared to consensus of an increase by 0.1%.

 

Redbook: General merchandise portion of retail sales covering only approximately 10% of total retail sales, this data is a weekly measure of sales at department stores, chain stores and discounters. U.S. Retail Sales fell by 1.2% for the first two weeks in February versus January.

 

Leading Indicators: Ten economic indicators are compiled by the Conference Board that should lead overall economic activity. In the past 30 years the data has been revised many times especially when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points in the economy. U.S. Conference Board reports as follows: January Leading Index rose by 0.1%; Coincident Index rose by 0.1% and Jan Lagging Index fell by 0.1%.

 

FOMC Minutes: Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes after most recent policy meeting describing decision for policy action. The FOMC minutes contained: discussed changing risk assessment language; all members agreed to maintain tightening bias; downside growth, upside inflation risks diminished; all members expressed concern over inflation; inflation improving, but downtrend not yet firm; further gradual inflation decline likeliest outcome; energy, import prices, rents should ease inflation; housing stabilizing, but still 'notable' econ risk; labor markets taut, significant wage gains in some jobs and many members see Gross Domestic Product potential above staff estimate.

 

On the commodities markets, the trend was higher across the board today for the Energy sector: Light crude moved higher by $1.22 to close at $60.07 a barrel; Heating Oil closed higher today by $0.04 to end at $1.68 a gallon; Natural Gas moved higher by $0.10 to end the day at $7.72 per million BTU and Unleaded Gas closed higher by $0.05 today to end the session at $1.77 a gallon.

 

Metals Market ended the session higher across the board today: Gold moved sharply higher in a major reversal from yesterday with a gain by $23.00 to close at $684.00 an ounce; Silver closed higher by $0.44 at $14.27 an ounce; Platinum moved nicely higher today by $14.10 to close at $1,233.20 an ounce and Copper ended the day higher by $0.06, same as yesterday, to close at $2.66 per pound.

 

On the Livestock and Meat Markets, the trend was higher across the board today: Lean Hogs closed higher by 0.13 to close at 66.98; Pork Bellies ended the day higher by 3.00 to close at 104.50; Live Cattle closed higher by 1.05 to end the day at 96.40 and Feeder Cattle ended the day higher by 0.40 to close at 100.03.

 

Other Commodities: Corn moved substantially higher today by 10.75 points to end at 439.00 and Soybeans moved nicely higher by 11.00 to close at 798.00.

 

The end of day results for the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) which is comprised of the total Exchange Volume for Futures and Options (EVFO) including Electronic, Open Auction and Cash Exchange ended the day at 2,875,412. Open Interest for Futures moved higher by 23,730 to close at 9,363,370 and the Open Interest for Options moved higher by 68,972 to close at 8,521,507 for a total Open Interest of 17,886,231 for a total gain on the day by 92,702.

 

Bonds were lower across the board today: 2 year bond closed lower by 1/32 at 100 2/32; 5 year bond closed lower by 2/32 at 100 9/32; 10 year bond closed lower by 15/32 at 99 15/32 and the 30 year bond closed lower by 6/32 at 99 11/32.

 

The mini Dow ended the session with a loss today of 38 to close at 12758. The total Dow Exchange Volume for the day came in at 97,075 which are comprised of Electronic, Open Auction and Cash Exchange. Traders should review workshops available at the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) Educational in-person seminars schedules available on CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) website.

 

New York Stock Exchange movers for the day: Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) made a super spike rally today with a gain of 10.85 points to end at $121.99 for the day; Jack in the Box Incorporated (JBX) moved nicely higher by 6.45 points to close at $71.02; M & F Worldwide Corporation (MFW) fell by 10.87% to shed 4.53 points for a closing price of $37.15; Chemed Corporation (CHE) rallied by 19.10% to tack on a gain of 7.61 points for a close of $47.76 and Medco Health Solutions Incorporated (MHS) rallied higher by 6.21 points to close at $67.80 for the session.

 

On the NASDAQ today, advancers came in at 1,524; decliners totaled 1,489; unchanged came in at 175; new highs came in at 191 and new lows came in at 21. Gainers and losers for the day on the NASDAQ: Acorda Therapeutics Incorporated (ACOR) fell by 2.21 points to end the session at $22.61; Joy Global Incorporated (JOYG) moved higher by 3.85 points to close at $53.98; Apple Incorporated (AAPL) climbed higher by 3.25 points for a closing price of $89.15; NutriSystem Incorporated (NTRI) fell lower by 2.24 points to end the day at $46.69 and Google Incorporated (GOOG) gained 3.65 points to close at $475.75.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
    • MCK Mckesson stock, nice trend and continuation breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?MCK
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.