Is This Good Time for Buy Gold Again???

[Obsidian 10]

Hi Bobc,

Weekly chart is bearish so I think we have seen the high level this year and we are going to break below 1530...

Though I was expecting to see gold testing 1600 again first...a daily close below 1.550 will confirm I was wrong (about hitting 1600 before reversing)...

[bobcollett 10]

Hi MMS

Gold futures close lower on $ rise , and Spanish rerating.

regards

bobc

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Hi MMS

Gold futures close lower on $ rise , and Spanish rerating.

regards

bobc

 

Yes that looks like what is happening doesn't it? We'll have to see what the rest of the week brings but I still believe we are in a long-term bull market, even though short-term the technicals look negative.

 

MMS

[SunTrader 10]

.... even though short-term the technicals look negative.

Well then how about Gold is set to close down for the month, the 4th such month in a row.

 

The last time it did that was the year 2000.

[Obsidian 10]

this was interesting...how long will they be able to protect 1530 level

[Ingot54 13]

There is an inverse correlation between the gold price and the dollar.

While the dollar is strong and is getting stronger, gold will stagnate.

And a bailout in the euro will send more money chasing the $.

When the $ starts going down, then's the time to buy gold.

Investors are always looking for safe havens. Even at 0% interest.

kind regards

bobc

I think we are looking at a "New World Order" for Gold.

 

During QEI and QEII gold hit new highs as the $USD weakened with the dilution of its currency in response to the counterfeiting by the Fed Reserve and the US Treasury through funny money bond purchases.

 

China is holding over $USD1.2trillion, and can see where this is headed.

As the world's largest gold producer, China forbids the export of gold - forcing it to remain in Chinese hands at home.

 

The Chinese Central Bank has not released gold holdings since 2008. And they remain - along with India - the largest buyer of bullion. They can force a revaluation of gold once they hold enough of it, and that day approaches - yes - even with every full moon it gets closer! the biggest

 

But there is a circuit-breaker in the price rise now - and traders better be ready for the wild ride ahead in gold.

 

Think what would happen if the ECB began to print just as much money as the USA is printing.

Think what would happen if the BOJ began to print just as much money as the USA is printing.

Think what would happen if the BOE began to print just as much money as the USA is printing.

 

For the first time we are seeing a fight-back by three large competing self-interest groups - the ECB (Euro), the BOJ (Yen) and the BOE (Pound Sterling).

 

So what does this mean for the other currencies ... and gold?

 

... Read on ...

[Ingot54 13]

I think we are looking at a "New World Order" for Gold ...

 

So what does this mean for the other currencies ... and gold? ...

 

... Read on ...

For the first time in years, the Indian government is troubled by the bleeding of its foreign exchange reserves to off-shore gold markets.

 

In effect, the country's private gold purchases (which are substantial) are funded by the banks. But the

Indian regulations forbid the banks to deal in commodities; instead, they are allowed to finance commodity

business, and to meet funding and capital requirements of commodity traders.

 

India Considers Banning Banks From Selling Gold Bullion Coins | ZeroHedge

 

Gold is higher in most major currencies year to date

but has surged against the rupee as the Indian rupee

hit a record low against major currencies last week.

 

Indian gold prices are soaring despite official attempts

to curtail demand. In March the Indian government

doubled the import duty on gold to 4% in attempts to

rectify significant trade deficits and thereby help

protect the currency.

 

The Business Standard of India reported this morning

that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to clamp

down on gold bullion coin sales by banks as the rising

bullion imports are adding pressure to the current account

deficit and weakening the rupee.

 

Put my previous post together with this one, and you have a whole new set of conditions.

 

1. Central banks redoubling efforts to weaken their currencies

and thus stimulate the attractiveness of their products/exports

 

2. Governments like India beginning to realise the effects of gold

hoarding, and sabre-rattling to try to restrict the trade

 

3. The issues worthy of consideration have been broadened by

the entry into the serious money-printing business

(quantitative easing) by countries other than the USA

 

I accept that these countries have already been involved in this, but not to the extent they do now.

For example, Britain (BOE) has printed much more money as a percentage of GDP than the USA has.

 

And when considered in the context of activity by central banks to weaken their currencies by

direct (futile in my view) intervention (selling/buying currencies in the market) gold traders have

many more factors to consider than previously.

 

There is a head of steam building in the EURCHF that is going to end in tears. No bank can hope to

restrict the level at which their currency can trade on the free market. At some point there is going

to be a serious challenge - just as soon as someone sees a "Soros-style opportunity" to take on the

SNB, and it will happen. When it does, the only hope for the CHF will be for another

country to come to their aid, to defend the franc ... and that dog ain't gonna hunt!

 

The situation is not that the franc is going to be sold ... it is going to be bought!

Wait until the EUR begins to decline further - the pressure can not be contained.

 

And what will that do to gold?

Edited September 22, 2012 by Ingot54

[Ingot54 13]

The bottom line is that we can no longer assume that gold trading is a no-brainer.

 

No longer can we just buy a few contracts and wait for the next month's QE to kick the price higher

in terms of the value of the USD.

Only in currencies not denominated in JPY - GBP - USD - EUR will the value of gold contracts rise.

 

Good luck with finding an exchange that will offer that!

 

We saw a new recent high for gold on Friday, notwithstanding the all-time-high on 6th September 2011.

However, no sooner had it hit the high ($USD1787) than it plummeted right back to the baseline it had

been cooking at all week - $USD1773!

 

How did that happen?

Who sold it down?

How many contracts were sold?

What is the net COT on Gold atm, held by whom, and why?

 

Never lose sight of facts.

 

Gold is a commodity, albeit different from pork bellies and orange juice.

And when there is a perceived crisis, instead of gold going higher, it will get sold like any other

to meet urgent liquidity requirements. Sentiment is a very big driver of prices, and when we see

risk-on and risk-off mood swings, beware the price of gold.

 

We gold traders are funny life-forms!

[bobcollett 10]

Dear ingot

Just got back from 4 days in the Kalahari Desert.Lots and lots of stars.

And you have been working (posting) overtime.

I need to read your comments a few times before I comment.

kind regards

bobc

[Ingot54 13]

Dear ingot

Just got back from 4 days in the Kalahari Desert.Lots and lots of stars.

And you have been working (posting) overtime.

I need to read your comments a few times before I comment.

kind regards

bobc

They play golf at night in the Kalahari :confused: :rofl:

[bobcollett 10]

They play golf at night in the Kalahari :confused: :rofl:

 

Hi Ingot

Where do you get these pics of kangaroos?

They dont look the same as the kangaroos in SA.

kind regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

Hi Ingot

Your posts make sense.The price of Gold is going UP.

BUY

But not this week!!!

We are in a RED period luner cycle.

Markets weaken during NEW MOON

This lasts until the end of the month.....FULL MOON (30 09 2012)

If the market holds its own this week, expect a surge next week.

kind regards

bobc

[Ingot54 13]

Hi Ingot

Where do you get these pics of kangaroos?

They don't look the same as the kangaroos in SA.

Bob - these are not Kangaroos as such. They are Australian feral bush cats.

The one pictured was recently weaned! When they grow up they may be classed as Kangaroos by some people.

Your posts make sense.The price of Gold is going UP.

BUY

But not this week!!!

We are in a RED period luner cycle.

Markets weaken during NEW MOON

This lasts until the end of the month.....FULL MOON (30 09 2012)

If the market holds its own this week, expect a surge next week.

Is this a serious approach to trading, Bob?

 

I am not into Astrology and can't link Astronomy to trading.

Am I missing something?

 

So far the theory is standing up, because on Friday the rally that had me smiling quickly collapsed, taking my profits with it. I am still a net 16 pips positive in Gold, but down from a net 68 pips Friday.

 

My wife who is the hind-sight expert in these things reminded me I should have taken profits right at the peak on Friday.

 

That helped a lot. Now I have two things not to smile about!

[zdo 20]

Ingot54, Broad and well considered commentary – almost too good, almost TMI

thx. I admire your perspective.

 

re: "The bottom line is that we can no longer assume that gold trading is a no-brainer"

Are you saying trading PM’s will never be simple again? From my pov, trading them has never been simple.

Investing in PM’s yes. Since the 70’s, I have been reading goldbug specialist articles and listening to friends who have been saying that 1) the fiat medicine has turned into poison already, or 2) is turning into poison now, or 3) will turn into poison soon – ( within 1 to x years)

…

How Gold Has Measured Currency Performance...Since 1971, When It Became a 'Barbarous Relic' | Julian D. W. Phillips | Safehaven.com

yada yada

etc etc …

That makes investing in PM’s simple as fk. Buy all you can. Take delivery of all you can.

But hedging and trading them has never been simple. In my experience they have a different ‘technical’ quality than many other mkts., are more manipulated relative to many other mkts., they tend to ‘price in’ coming events differently than other mkts (more ahead of or behind, etc) … you asked BobC if astro Is “a serious approach to trading” I’ll be interested in his answer. While we’re waiting I’ll share my view - ‘the stars impel, they don’t compel’ Certain AG crowds, more than do AU crowds, get (quite unconsciously, btw) ‘hooked up’ with planetary harmonics periodically and price movements will stay in phase with a planetary configuration cycle for some time – usually until another set of crowds takes ascendancy in setting the auctions. In AU, annual seasonals (solar cycles) tend to outperform lunar cycles across time…jmo

 

 

re: "Only in currencies not denominated in JPY - GBP - USD - EUR will the value of gold contracts rise.

 

Good luck with finding an exchange that will offer that! "

 

Could you use pairs in conjunction with your Gold/USD trades to create same effect as” finding an exchange that will offer that” ?

 

:spam:

re: "My wife who is the hind-sight expert in these things reminded me I should have taken profits right at the peak on Friday".

Option 1. Put her in charge of all the gold trading for a month.:missy:

Option 2. Stop discussing your trades with her at all.

[bobcollett 10]

Bob - these are not Kangaroos as such. They are Australian feral bush cats.

The one pictured was recently weaned! When they grow up they may be classed as Kangaroos by some people.

Is this a serious approach to trading, Bob?

 

I am not into Astrology and can't link Astronomy to trading.

Am I missing something?

 

So far the theory is standing up, because on Friday the rally that had me smiling quickly collapsed, taking my profits with it. I am still a net 16 pips positive in Gold, but down from a net 68 pips Friday.

 

My wife who is the hind-sight expert in these things reminded me I should have taken profits right at the peak on Friday.

 

That helped a lot. Now I have two things not to smile about!

 

Hi Ingot

Forget about astrology.Thats an alignment of the planets.... baby stuff.

Think the greatest force in the Universe........magnetism

Think how it affects us .

I dont want to say too much.But theres a lot more involved.

Heres a chart

You decide

kind regards

bobc

[jimbo320 10]

Nice chart bobc. What software is it created with?

[bobcollett 10]

Nice chart bobc. What software is it created with?

 

Hi Jimbo

BBC.........born before computers.

Just take a market, mark the full moon and the new moon , and draw some threndlines

Rules apply.

regards

bobc

[jimbo320 10]

Hi Jimbo

BBC.........born before computers.

Just take a market, mark the full moon and the new moon , and draw some threndlines

Rules apply.

regards

bobc

Yikes, sounds labour intensive to me. Does anyone do a package to do lunar/solar stuff? I always found it quite interesting. It could be coincidence though. Be good too see it going back 10 years or so.

[bobcollett 10]

Yikes, sounds labour intensive to me. Does anyone do a package to do lunar/solar stuff? I always found it quite interesting. It could be coincidence though. Be good too see it going back 10 years or so.

 

Hi jimbo

My daughter lives in London, and you sound as lazy as her !!!!

regards

bobc

[Obsidian 10]

Yikes, sounds labour intensive to me. Does anyone do a package to do lunar/solar stuff? I always found it quite interesting. It could be coincidence though. Be good too see it going back 10 years or so.

 

this one costs $399 :rofl: if you want more planets you have to pay $3500 !!

The Market Trader Software Series from Bronze to Titanium

[SILVER 10]

Chart could probably have been made with Wave59....another astro software is TimingSolutions

[alibaba5055 10]

41 Years After The Death Of The Gold Standard, A Look At "How We Ended Up In This Economic Purgatory"

 

 

As we await the latest developments out of the Eurozone and Washington, I take a moment to look back on this very important day in history. If you want to understand current events, then you first have to understand history. How did we get here? More specifically for financial markets, how did we end up in this mess -- this economic purgatory? The answer boils down to a simple proposition on the philosophical level, which I will leave to the reader to identify because my doing so would likely ruffle a few too many feathers. So I will keep the discussion on the concrete-bound level. However, I am willing to say that the political philosophy that drove us to the current state of affairs was responsible for the respective concrete measures implemented over the years. The crisis in confidence that we observe today resulted from cumulative effects of those measures.

 

This being August 15, 2012, students of the history of monetary economics no doubt are aware that this is the 41th Anniversary of the breakdown of Bretton Woods. It was on this day 41 years ago that President Nixon defaulted on the promise to exchange gold for paper dollars presented for exchange by foreign central banks. Aug 15th marks the anniversary of the collapse of Bretton Woods and the gold-exchange standard that was established after WW II. (Notice that dollar debasement has been bipartisan over the years: Republicans Nixon and Bush and Democrats Carter and Obama have all presided over major declines in the value of U.S. money.)

 

The current crisis in the global monetary system pales in magnitude to the sundering of gold from central banks' fiat paper currencies in 1971. That is, we are not witnessing the wholesale dismantling of an entire monetary system. What we are witnessing is a loss of confidence in the current monetary system, which, of course, is equivalent to a loss of confidence in central banks' ability to restore stability. However, the decision to renege on the gold-exchange standard that was made 41 years ago is still reverberating today. In *fact*, many or most of the problems observed today are the direct result of wrong-headed discretionary monetary policies.

 

What was it that made the current morass inevitable once the paper dollar was severed from gold?

 

The answer is simple: fiat paper money that is not grounded in any objective standard can be manipulated at the whim of the issuer. Without the requirement to exchange fiat money for gold or some other commodity, the central bank can issue unlimited amounts, thus making its value subject to extreme volatility and, as we have seen, perpetual debasement.

 

Complete article here -

41 Years After The Death Of The Gold Standard, A Look At "How We Ended Up In This Economic Purgatory" | ZeroHedge

[frankfx 10]

gold is a gold and will stay as gold for centuries

[jimbo320 10]

Exactly. And paper is paper and will be printed for centuries. Easy solution to all economic problems, with a free bonus that all your debts are inflated away and the public are stealth taxed. Print fiat money.

 

Gold will always go up, as it cannot be printed. No wonder they didn't want a gold standard.

[Ingot54 13]

Exactly. And paper is paper and will be printed for centuries. Easy solution to all economic problems, with a free bonus that all your debts are inflated away and the public are stealth taxed. Print fiat money.

 

Gold will always go up, as it cannot be printed. No wonder they didn't want a gold standard.

Be careful with the "Gold will always go up" idea, Jimbo.

 

When I hear that, I think of selling.

 

But what I wanted to ring the bell about today, is a heads-up on what is going on:

 

The Germans Are Coming to Count Their Gold

In fact there are heaps of sites now carrying the story - Google: "Bundesbank wants Gold Audit." But no mainstream news sites that I have seen.

 

Looks like the Bundesbank is going to force something that even congressman Dr Ron Paul could not - an audit of Fort Knox!

 

Ron Paul to Ft. Knox: Show Me The Gold

 

Bundesbank Disagrees With Audit Court

 

What is astounding to me is that gold continued to dip today, touching $USD1698. And I could NOT find any stories on Kitco.com regarding this very important development.

 

Here we have a severe pullback in price - down $100 from the peak of the month, and no one is talking about the fact that Germany wants to see its gold. Its gold is stored in Central Banks (alarm bells ringing already when I hear the term "Central Banks") and the German Centra Bank, the Bundesbank is resisting the German AuditCourt's request to physically set eyes on, and assess/audit every bar of German Gold held in London, New York, Paris and Frankfurt.

 

This could be bigger than Ben Hur, yet not a single mainstream media outlet has seen fit to carry the story with any sort of alacrity!

 

I mentions and linked to Dr Ron Paul's input to the issue, but he is being written off as a crank by the US Fed Reserve, and indeed by his own party, wrt this matter.

 

Why? What is the problem?

 

The US Fed Reserve supposedly does a "stock-take" every year, but they do not actually LOOK at the gold ... they merely check invoices of in-out-accumulation-deficit numbers, and accept the word of the third party that the audit is "accurate."

 

I am betting (with my money) that the ann will come when markets are closed, as they usually do, that there "may be a problem with access to the physical gold" and that this will provoke a crisis of integrity and trust between the German Audit Courts and the Central Reserve Banks.

 

What price would Gold spike to on the opening, if that were to occur this Sunday afternoon? I am going to take a LONG position on Gold every weekend, so that if/when this spike occurs, I will be in line for a treat.

 

Anyone else have a view on this? With ALL central banks now wanting to acquire gold, this alone "should" force an increase in the price, notwithstanding the massive short positions held by JP Morgan Inc. The COT report last week had a decline in the commercial short positions for the second week running, and tomorrow's figures might show a further decrease in shorts. This would be an excellent time for JP Morgan to cover their shorts, as it will cost them the least for nearly a year, with the lows of mid-may aside.

 

Interesting times.