Brand New to Trading After 3+ Years of Trading Attempts... Maybe Volume Spread?

[patriotstef 10]

Hello all,

 

I thank you much for letting me join this site... I'm going to try to be as non-chalant as possible here....

 

I started trading forex back in 2008. When hedging was permitted, I seemed to be doing somewhat ok, until a massive move in December of that year made the market skyrocket upwards... I had sell trades going and I almost lost everything I made.

 

Ever since that time, I have been trying to figure out what exactly is going to make me decent money on the currency market - or any other market for that matter. I have now read 200+ articles, 1000+ indicators, numerous EAs, dozens of .pdfs and a few chatroom visits. Guess what? All of it proved to be just a valuable as me flipping a coin to enable me to decide whether to buy or sell.

 

Everyone talks about "price action" being the key to succeeding, but no one can really explain to me what that truly is. Candle patterns? Ok, big deal, they don't prove anything since the market has shown us repeatedly that they can be false indications no matter how obvious it may seem for up or down moves. Price action is "the market moving"? Ok, so what? I can see that it's moving, but how do I know where it's going to go in one hour from now? That's the only way to make money - to know what is going to happen next. Otherwise, the markets are just glorified craps tables the likes of Las Vegas. I know of no one who makes a living gambling... interestingly enough, I also no of no one who makes a living trading the market where they just tell you what they're doing to make money - forex is a zero-sum market... money in one pair of hands is money out of someone else's. Do you really think they're going to just "give out info" on how to do what they're doing without shooting themselves in the foot? I don't think so.

 

I gave up the markets months ago, but my brother got me back into it with Tom Williams' volume spread analysis. That so far has come the closest to knowing what will happen next. I also was introduced to the MFI Bill Williams indicator where I can see if professionals, the public, no interest, or a draw takes place in making the market move. But I'm still clueless as to how to make volume spread analysis work - I already have Tom's book "mastering the markets", but the book is so loaded with upper-level-market-terminology jibberish that I can't understand half of what he's talking about. That's the thing about most teachers, THEY might understand what they're saying, but the student certainly doesn't!

 

I'm basically here on forums like this to give the markets ONE FINAL LAST ATTEMPT to show me if it's possible to make any real money on a consistent basis starting with a very low balance on a bucket shop before I forever abandon the whole "make money on the market" notion vowing never to return. I do see some validity trading the daily EUR/USD using volume spread analysis where the volume is high and the candle spread/range is low/high, but I'm still not clear on how to read it - especially combining it with the MFI indicator and where the support-resistance lines truly are at and how far back to go to see them.

 

By the way, it doesn't have to be volume spread analysis... what I'm really looking for is anything that indicates what the big shots running the market are getting ready to do and when - then I just go along with them. That will make money consistently - but how do you find out this information? Technical analysis is nonsense since math is not what moves the markets - people do... and people can do anything when they want and where they want on the charts.

 

Bottom line is this, I'm finished with hearing any further data regarding the following: MAs or any lagging indicator, "price action", any more books or articles that teach variations of the aforementioned, this person's strategy for only $XXX.99, "just keep at it and study those charts! It takes years!" (yeah, and I'm no better off than when I started years ago), trade the news, "I've blown several accounts before I figured out what to do - but I'm not going to tell you how it's done"... and all else that goes in this direction. Is there ANYTHING that I can learn that has absolutely NOTHING to do with everything I've mentioned here regarding how to trade? I'm down to my last two limbs with this whole market scenario before I permenantly call it quits.

 

I do thank you all and I mean no offense to anyone if anything I've said here is deemed derogatory. I am grateful and honored to be amongst professionals like you!

 

PS

[YertleTurtle 10]

Volume spread analysis works and it is simple. It still requires a lot of practice to get good at reading charts based on VSA. HLC and volume is all you need. That and a lot of hard work.

[joshdance 10]

  patriotstef said:

I'm basically here on forums like this to give the markets ONE FINAL LAST ATTEMPT to show me if it's possible to make any real money on a consistent basis starting with a very low balance on a bucket shop before I forever abandon the whole "make money on the market" notion vowing never to return.

 

... I am grateful and honored to be amongst professionals like you!

 

patriotstef,

 

I subscribed to this thread when you opened it a couple of days ago, and was curious as to the response you would get.

 

I think it's a compliment to you that you haven't gotten any real responses yet--in other words, you requested that people not say the typical stuff, and they have not.

 

My point in a nutshell is this: perhaps you have already lost the game. You're giving the market an ultimatum: "prove to me that I can profit from your behavior, or I'm outta here!" In so doing, you have shifted the responsibility off of yourself, and have relinquished control of the outcome solely to the external. I can understand how it's easy to do this, and how you feel like you've tried everything, therefore you need to be shown that it's possible because you've basically exhausted all of your possibilities. But I think you know deep down that if this is your strategy, you might as well quit now.

 

From another perspective, think about this: how many great inventors, explorers, scientists, etc., just prior to having their breakthrough moment, said to themselves, "okay, this is my FINAL attempt, and if I don't get it this time, I quit!!" ? My guess is, not many. They had dedicated their lives to conquering and overcoming the obstacles necessary to succeed. It would be pure dumb luck to succeed on one last hail mary attempt.

 

However, many never made the breakthrough discovery, and spent a lifetime trying. Still others quit and went on to other things and would have succeeded with a little more time or effort or luck. The question is, which is worse: trying forever without success, or stopping when success could be just around the corner? It's a decision we all have to make, and is basically at the crossroads of where you stand now. No one can answer it but you, of course.

[YertleTurtle 10]

JD made a couple of really good points of which I will add one or two thoughts. There are plenty of ways to make money trading of which one is VSA. The actual Holy Grail of trading isn't an approach it is a few simple ideas.

 

1 - Discipline is key - you've heard it 100 times. How do you know if you are disciplined? Do you have a set of rules you religiously follow? Do you keep records of all of your trades? Without these two basic components a trader isn't taking accountability for his trading and cannot objectively evaluate his results.

 

 

2 - Hard work. Again - how much time do you spend ACTIVELY studying the market? This isn't watching the market tick up and down but actually reviewing market behavior, tracking patterns, testing setups etc. How much time do you spend refining your understanding of market behavior, reading and rereading material, searching for new setups or collecting data on existing ones.

 

It shouldn't be surprising that these two are paramount to success as there aren't many people successful in life who haven't cultivated one or both of these skills. If I would add one more skill it would be honest self-evaluation but this might fall under the subset of discipline. I'll leave you with one of my favorite quotes.

 

The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls looking like hard work.

 

-- Thomas A. Edison

[Nikko 10]

  joshdance said:

patriotstef,

 

I subscribed to this thread when you opened it a couple of days ago, and was curious as to the response you would get.

 

I think it's a compliment to you that you haven't gotten any real responses yet--in other words, you requested that people not say the typical stuff, and they have not.

 

My point in a nutshell is this: perhaps you have already lost the game. You're giving the market an ultimatum: "prove to me that I can profit from your behavior, or I'm outta here!" In so doing, you have shifted the responsibility off of yourself, and have relinquished control of the outcome solely to the external. I can understand how it's easy to do this, and how you feel like you've tried everything, therefore you need to be shown that it's possible because you've basically exhausted all of your possibilities. But I think you know deep down that if this is your strategy, you might as well quit now.

 

From another perspective, think about this: how many great inventors, explorers, scientists, etc., just prior to having their breakthrough moment, said to themselves, "okay, this is my FINAL attempt, and if I don't get it this time, I quit!!" ? My guess is, not many. They had dedicated their lives to conquering and overcoming the obstacles necessary to succeed. It would be pure dumb luck to succeed on one last hail mary attempt.

 

However, many never made the breakthrough discovery, and spent a lifetime trying. Still others quit and went on to other things and would have succeeded with a little more time or effort or luck. The question is, which is worse: trying forever without success, or stopping when success could be just around the corner? It's a decision we all have to make, and is basically at the crossroads of where you stand now. No one can answer it but you, of course.

 

JoshDance has analyzed your particular situation and has provided you with something no TA or " trading system " could ever do. In essence trading is 90% you with the other 10% being terminology / strategy etc etc etc etc etc..... ETC! That being said without knowing the 10% you will obviously fail horribly and you might as well give your money to charity instead of the corporations, hedge funds, etc who have teams 1,000 times smarter then you or anyone you know or anyone they know. Basically they have a team of super geniuses that know exactly how to take your money and make their systems work, but by you using a similar systems will fail. Confusing right? Yeah well if that confuses you then you need to throw your " last final attempt " BS straight out the window and give your money to the less fortunate, seriously. Let's get back to the percentages, now still to learn in the 10% is a profitable strategy and a whole maybe 1-2 years worth of proper field training, that by the way no " article, book, or special bought trading system " could ever teach you. Ok let's picture a perfect world and receive 1-2 years of proper trading by a profitable seasoned professional etc.... YOU STILL WILL NOT MAKE $1 ON YOUR OWN CONSISTENTLY BECAUSE YOU ARE MISSING THE OTHER 90%! Remember that was just 10% and that 10% was not nothing you can get from reading a book, youtube, whatever / etc... You still can't take what he knows and make money because you yourself are a failure to your own profitability.

 

Just by the way you express yourself and think just because you have clicked a few buttons and read a few books you've did everything every profitable professional trader does to make money. No volume spread, not your brother cheering you on, not one thing is going to help you besides self evaluation and even that is pretty far fetched taking to consideration how you come on a forum and expect everyone to just give you the golden ticket because " THIS IS YOUR LAST TIME AND YOU HAVE READ AND TRIED SO HARD " who cares? I don't care, it seems you have to convince yourself because you are unstable and being unstable is one of many handicaps you have in your goal of trading profitability. You see, just by reading your opening post I can with out hesitation tell you to save your money because even if you get lucky today, tomorrow it will be gone. I love listening to people like you and how if you can not make money it's impossible etc. Even though you did not say it, I know you think it but you are very wrong because you can in fact make not only " REAL MONEY " but a decent living as well.

 

What makes me mad is instead of blaming yourself you blame all of these systems, books, and articles when you are the problem. You are better off seriously flipping a coin, you said it best yourself because you have no clue on how to execute. Maybe you know a couple words and a chart pattern but that is nothing really... In all reality you are role playing not trading. You think you are some player with money and information but you are just a commission write off for Steve Cohen.

 

You know it is one thing to read books / article but you have actually bought a " trading secret " from somebody lol... Do you not see it yet? You are in it for the easy money when it is far from easy. I'm going to be you for a second... " I'm learning some terminology ( 1 week ), I'm going to buy someones trading secret on how he makes REAL money for $199 and I'm going to invest 100K and make 150% profit just like the secret I bought for $199! " lol Good luck bro no wonder you were spewing silent hate through your original post, you got ripped off and you yourself ripped yourself off, lol... No one is to blame but yourself as you fooled yourself into thinking it was easy.

 

I do thank you and I mean no offense to you if anything I've said here is deemed derogatory. I am grateful and honored to be able to educate you so the next time you decide to be passive-aggressive while insinuatingly degrading professional traders while at the same time requesting their help you would think of more respectful way of doing so.

 

 

Nikko