week 8

[Buk 10]

presidents day eases us into a shortened week with this pair fishing the bottom of the recent range cut…….the % risk play leans toward the bounce off the lower line at the 78.6, which harbours Monday’s S1 pivot line, should the opening/early week prices continue this lower top channel behaviour………

 

reluctance to climb back above the top channel line & upper fib confluence, points to aggressive (intraday) shorts, sniffing the activity at the 78.6 & round number……..

 

as was indicated last week, 1.94 holds the aces for the (cable) bulls…..beneath that daily doji print from 3 weeks back, opens up 9260 & a very bearish outlook down to the early summer/fall 06 s&r zones of 1.9130-60...

 

wednesday & friday are the Sterling ‘data days’ of any relevance, whilst wednesday’s dual CPI & FOMC releases will be eagerly eyed from the bucks standpoint……..in the absense of any clear sway from the data, this pair could well get hoofed around inside the range boundaries………..

 

worth keeping your ears primed for any snippets from Fed jawboners too....specially Janet Yellen, who is on the rostrom twice next week!

 

 

[Buk 10]

yen is also worth keeping tabs on as this bearish M formation off it's 122.0 lows has eased into the 38.2 resistance zone above 119.0.......

 

strong economic data has roused yen bulls & carry trade positions unwound apace last week........whispers are again surfacing of potential Japanese int rate talk & 'desk talk' puts that likelihood at 50/50........

 

as long as the BoJ hold that gavel, yen will try supress any attempt to get dragged back down thru the 23.6 zone at 120.50.......

 

this psychological 119 level, coupled with the 38.2 long range Fib line throws this pair into a keen each-way axis zone, which will likely open up some decent intraday opportunities into the next couple weeks.........

 

 

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Well cable has continued its journey back down. Looks like it is heading for 9400 now.

Nice opp to short at the break of the asian low with price bouncing off that 9550 zone. Didn't take it myself as didn't expect too much today due to the US holiday so stayed out. Trotted on quite nicely though.

[steveshutts 10]

Very confusing this morning. Looks like cable is on its way back up again with Euro but i am going to wait for a clear direction. Its floating around within the middle of its downward channel at the moment but very scrappy action. I can't really get a grip on my s+r junctures now as there seem to be so many confluences around here now that it could stop anywhere.

If it breaks north then i reckon 9615 is a good target, being the top of this channel and the next fib target on the 240.

Data out at 09:30 and with this direction unclear, i think i will be waiting for that?

[Buk 10]

if you find the outlook a little busy or congested, switch across to another pair or cross Steve?.....all the chit chat & mongering around the BoJ's rate meeting this week has pumped the EUR/YEN & GBP/YEN away from their respective s&r zones yesterday........

 

spying the charts earlier this morning those 2 set up a couple decent opp's yesterday which pushed thru fib lines to help guide their moves a tad........

 

just a suggestion - might save you sitting thru the occasions when the Dollar pairs become mired in clack.........

[steveshutts 10]

Not much going on the forum, anyone upto anything?

Shorted cable this morning on failure to crack 9600. Scaled very quickly before BOE minutes, still in that, looks like price is just setting up a range down at 9500?

Just shorted GBP/JPY as at nice level. 240 chart still in downtrend and has reached a major confluence zone.

Round number 236.00, 61% fib of hourly swing high at 237.20 and 78% fib of last months high to low. Pushing near to old daily support that was broken and near to top of daily channel.

Plenty of factors of resistance but maybe too early? Taken entry of a lower top with a hammer bar on the 15. Loads of R/R to scale at asian low if it gets there?

 

Sorry, attached files wrong size. :o

 

 

 

[Buk 10]

hey Steve!

 

done nothing on the majors really this week.......just nursing the carry trade stuff which are offering easier opp's of late.....

 

the Jap rates didn't rock the boat after all, much of that hoo haa was virtually priced in, so it's normal sevice again!

 

nice pivot to pivot shunt on your cable trade this morning huh? good stuff

[steveshutts 10]

Hi BUk,

 

Yeah, out of my cable trade now, creeping back up and only a scalp. Should have got out a little earlier but gave it a little room to see if it trotted on.

Stopped out on my Gbp/Jpy. I think i am going to stick to cable only now. Everytime i try and trade something else i just get whipped.

[steveshutts 10]

Went long on cable this morning at break of hourly bars at 68, stop down at 40. Bullish drive yesterday afternoon and was looking for a break of that bullish hammer candle on the daily. Price retraced 38% of move up from yesterday and found support at 9550.

Kicking myself now as i didn't scale at 9600. Price is holding but i have moved my stop up to break even just in case this back fires on me.

I wonder if we will get a move before the GDP release? Looking to scale at 9650 if it can break 9600. Could be the start of a nice move back up if it can break this daily channel.

[steveshutts 10]

Well, decided to take out half at 82, at least if this does back fire now, i have grabbed something. Probably a bit premature, should have let this run a bit but not looking like it wants to march on at the moment.

[milliard 10]

There's a little bit of flak up here at the 96 with triple pressure via the descending channel top, Daily 50% & 50dma. But they were buying off the 61% at 95 into the London fix yesterday, so the lower line looks quite tight.

 

If you've got the stomach, they'll be hunting layered stops above 615 through to last weeks top at the 677, which is also the 38% Fib.

 

546, the 240m doji is the short end test on this buying pressure today for these Sterling Bulls. If it slips there, they'll try hump it again back at the hard supports - higher low 9500.

[steveshutts 10]

Yeah, cheers Milliard. I was looking for the push up to 9615 and towards last weeks high. Didn't get a shunt at the London open and it has failed to show any promise prior to the data print at 09:30. My stop has been whipped at break even now so will wait and see what happens. IMO it wasn't worth waiting to find out if they was going to shove it back down past the half prime so i am out with miniscule profit.

I wanted to see a clean break past 9600 but it hasn't happened. Positive GDP figures may help? We will see.

[Buk 10]

If you've got the stomach, they'll be hunting layered stops above 615 through to last weeks top at the 677, which is also the 38% Fib.

 

546, the 240m doji is the short end test on this buying pressure today for these Sterling Bulls.

 

nothing much in the way of added impetus to kick it this week tho Andre?.....if they blanket this top @ 9600, it'll merely get squared up into the w/end.........

 

might be some late buying to test the resolve, but it's been a lame duck inside this top quartile & won't tempt any follow thru money till it breaks & holds imo............

 

there have been far more lucrative opp's outside the european majors past few weeks & will continue to be until they shake out.........

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Data as expected, probably not too much on the cards today now.

Yen has definitely been the one this week as you highlighted earlier in the week Buk, hope you got on that one.

Out of interest, what do you use those median lines for on your channels and are they fib markers within the channel?

[milliard 10]

there have been far more lucrative opp's outside the european majors past few weeks & will continue to be until they shake out.........

 

Sure. Your 2nd post on this very thread highlighted that point.

 

The carry has been a no brainer. Stick it on & let her go. BoJ sure as hell weren't going to upset that party this week LOL.

 

Beats getting mugged inside all this noise on the Euro & Sterling.

[Buk 10]

Yen has definitely been the one this week as you highlighted earlier in the week Buk, hope you got on that one.

 

Out of interest, what do you use those median lines for on your channels and are they fib markers within the channel?

 

yeah, we've focused on the carry of late Steve.....basically better value in it...

 

those inside guages are just pressure lines.....Anna-Maria & a couple others use them as intraday guides for quick visits as & when they spot a decent risk set-up as prices get bounced inside the larger channel barriers.....

 

I use them as a visual, that's all.......

[steveshutts 10]

Looks like everyone is jumping on that carry trade. Could turn into a nightmare for those large hedge funds if we get any positive news out of Japan, which spooks the market into covering their yen shorts.

[milliard 10]

Lets hope so

 

Nothing like panic to freak the troops.

 

It's been a decent meal really since mid 2006 when the Eu & Pound broke out again. They're attempting to pressure 10yr barriers up alongside 241 & 163, so that ought to whip up a little fun. But like I said, it's a case of tossing a log on the fire every one in a while.

 

You trade those yourself?

[milliard 10]

Your nick looks familiar?!

 

Were you around in the USF (Anna-Maria's den) forum back in 02/03 at all?

[Buk 10]

Were you around in the USF (Anna-Maria's den) forum back in 02/03 at all?

 

you're thinking of Aaron (steves-shack).....this Steve's not as crazy as that wiry little jumping jack LOL............

[Art Krantz 10]

you're thinking of Aaron (steves-shack).....

 

Hell yeah, that's the guy. Whatever you do, don't fire an invite off in that direction. This joint will be crawling with regulators

 

Wonder whatever happened to him. If he wasn't loaded up on acid 4 out of 5 shifts then I'm the Pope.

[steveshutts 10]

No,

I am still on a demo account at the moment. Still fairly new to this game, and trying to adopt a style that suits, not an easy task. Started off on the shorter time frames as most newbies do, and have realised that they are dangerous playgrounds, although i still take on some silly trades from that arena from time to time. More to do with the impatient side of me i suppose.

Have learnt a great deal from Buk and Anna over the last year but still not turning over enough to warrant making this my full time occupation yet. Keep cracking at the whip though!

[steveshutts 10]

LOL,

 

No not me. Blimey, i find trading difficult enough as it is, let alone attempting it on acid.

[Buk 10]

Tess heard he was back under the cosh at Std Chartered......he sure was an excitable individual........

[milliard 10]

Thank christ for that. Put him on mail block will ya just to be safe.

 

Yeah, those busy timeframes will bruise you if you're not fleet of foot Steve.

 

Still, I guess 12 months down the road & still breathing is a good sign. You mainly play off the majors then?