Do You Use The Elliott Wave To Trade?

2012trader · February 11, 2012

Good Day Everyone,

I have a quick question, does anyone here use the Elliott Wave when trading?

zdo · March 2, 2012

...very interesting … 20 + days since op and not a single peep…

Understandable, in so far as for over a decade now the stock market continues in corrective waves, instead of in impulse waves, … and as Glenn Neely so accurately put it… the work / test of ew traders is in how well they count and trade corrective patterns…

…this low response rate in TL, may be indicative of a whole generation where ew is a lost art…

…tangent

[social Mood Watch] Summit 2011 Video: Bob Prechter Explains How Investors Herd

Also understandable, in that most ew counts will still be done on dollar unadjusted charts… and are subsequently skewed, screwed, or just plain old suck…

…

in contrary mode I’m thinking now may a good time for noobs to explore it and for experienced traders to dust off the ew books again

- not that the corrective period is over yet… but if you know how to trade ending or ended corrective phases, the impulse waves, when they come again will be ‘easy’

- and not that I espouse ew or recommend 'everyone' learn ew… I have all kinds of issues with it... 1) summation of cycles 'explains' how so many ew's can turn out not like they are 'supposed' to and has taken me much further in projecting possible outcomes than even the very best ew analyses ( btw, though, I don't regret any of the long hours I put into trading EW long ago 2) and, (yes disturbingly) for me, the "ew's" of one time frame are not 'fractals' of larger timeframe ElliottWaves' s as the traditional and consensus models posit... etc. etc...

Still...

Obsidian · March 2, 2012

I do not use EW to trade because I simply don't believe it but that does not mean that I would not read EW analysis :roll eyes:

zdo · March 2, 2012

Prechter is a stupid man.To be a permabear in a bull market ...

I don't track Prechter's market calls at all.

:Curious:

...How long has he been a permabear?

(... and how long has it been a bull market ? )

“Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.” - Lao Tzu

Edited March 2, 2012 by zdo

zdo · March 2, 2012

:confused:

...As usual i will be completely ignoring convention

hey mitsu, this is confusing … celebrating your own inner innovator…while denigrating Ralph, et al, who on many levels, personified and were shining examples of “ignoring convention” in their day…

…

“...pushing measurement very far gets you to weird things” Alder

zdo · March 2, 2012

:confused:

:helloooo:

… are we (completely) identifying Elliott Wave and / with Robert Prechtor yet?

… are we mixing messages yet?

"It is the same with all things. What starts out being sincere usually ends up being deceitful. What was simple in the beginning acquires monstrous proportions in the end." Chuang

zdo · March 2, 2012

Still :confused

:confused:

incongruencies btwn...

...get a songbook...

?

or

...writing a song...

?

... my confusion is maybe just from the tone of your first posts about Robert, permabear, bull market, etc.

SIUYA · March 3, 2012

good luck Mitsubishi - if you take something - like EW - and try and improve it, etc; then if you go down the path of trying to create a model that explains everything and becomes a model that the market has to fit I think you will struggle.....now I know you are probably not saying this

and while Precter may be a fanatical devotee - so are many other perma bulls, bears and they usually have their day in the sun. Often its better to be nown for something than being a flipper with no conviction - it makes for good tv.

For my :2c:

Elliot wave theory is a good generalist theory of how the markets work/swing/move - in waves.

Now those waves might as often be seen in a series of 5 and 3 wave counts.

Period.

Personally - if I see something that in the context of other things - eg; support, resistance, 50% retracement in an existing trend - AND - I can clearly see 5 waves or I can see that a 3 wave retracement would also co-incide with a 100% of the A wave to C waves then it gives me a higher conviction for the trade. I am interested in counting the interior waves to try and then predict what is going to happen in the future - no.

(much like Tom Demark - 9-13-9 counts, they are indications and a general theory of how markets appear to move) -

are they predictive? Only if you want to be frustrated and proved wrong like so many of our predictions ---- as opposed to anticipations of possibilities/probabilities.

SunTrader · March 3, 2012

EW is like any technique. Works some of the time, some of the times not.

The fanatics believe there is always a wave count present.

Just a matter of finding it and labeling it.:doh:

Mystery X and Y waves, and elaborate 5 wave corrections.

Prector will believe this going to the end of his own personal 5th wave.

ole · March 6, 2012

EW is like any technique. Works some of the time, some of the times not.

The fanatics believe there is always a wave count present.

Just a matter of finding it and labeling it.:doh:

Mystery X and Y waves, and elaborate 5 wave corrections.

Prector will believe this going to the end of his own personal 5th wave.

I found it interesting to learn about the "young" Elliott who only knew about 3s and 5s. There were no inviolate rules or even Fibonacci stuff. Then, as you say, the need to explain every wiggle set in and with it the infamous X wave, etc. For me, I'm young at heart and travel in young Elliott's footsteps especially when they mesh with other indicators.

zdo · March 6, 2012

You want a simple life don't you zdo?.

No, I only go “simple” when I’m forced to by low coping or mental energy,… I naturally tend to complexity.

…ever wonder what happened to our OP?

…wonder why he asked the OP ? ?

…wonder why only one of us, Obsidian, has categorically answered his YN question. The rest of us have hem hawed around with it...

I thought your basic point is that many have abandoned EW but maybe there are people trying to adapt the basic idea..if i am,there are probably others

My basic point was to answer OP’s question. An answer of quality would have been a straight up “No” – but I went off with some “quality BS” ( re “quality BS”, see http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/money-management/12243-drawdown-2.html#post141015 ...TL would be much better off, imo, if we all put our quality here and put all our BS and “quality BS” over on ET or some place… me, included… I estimate less than 10% of my posts are really of quality… and even that estimate may be generous self delusion)

The fanatics believe there is always a wave count present

not just “fanatics” … all bonafide Elliotticians ‘believe’ a wave count is present…

during pure impulse monowaves where they obviously 'know', of course, but also even in complicated corrections when they can't definitively come up with more than 2 or 3 alternative counts. Dedicated Ellioticians must be prepared for impulse waves so they must delve into the complexities. To a ‘true’ Elliottician - EW is “working” all of the time...

Along those lines, is it really helpful to dabble?

… to use EW “when they mesh with other indicators” ?

… to have a trade supported when “see something that [agrees] in the context of other things”, but not counting the ”inner waves”?

… to “adapt the basic idea” ?

... to accomodate superficial 'EW' as an ancilliary construct ?

just wondering ???? On some levels this is a confusing thread...

more at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/9763-advice-all-stop-fighting-trend-3.html

Edited March 6, 2012 by zdo

zdo · March 8, 2012

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roztom · March 8, 2012

I studies EW and actually used Tom Joseph's Software Advanced GET for a year about 12 years ago. As EW users know (I assume) EW is always clear in the rearview mirror... You don't know what wave your in until it unfolds & whether it is a minor or Major, etc... based on your timeframe...

I could not trade with it but it did help me see market structure a bit better, if only in hindsight and as another poster said it gave me a frame of reference for aligning retracements... If we have a flag developing on say a 15m and the pole of the flag would be a wave 3 then the retracement wave 4 would be where I would add or enter for the wave 5... of course is it wave 5 of the minor wave or are you entering at the 5th wave of bigger wave 3? If you know what I mean... I really see the same thing in a bar/candle chart and (for me) I do not worry about FIB Projections though I know some use them.. A deadend for me...

:2c:

zdo · March 9, 2012

Results of the survey are in!

Here are the stats for the TL sample (for those who are face reading impaired, that was a :wink; )

73,978 Do not use Elliott Wave

4 Use Elliott Wave in a supplementary, confirmational, etc. role

0 Use Elliott Wave exclusively

"Nothing comes to a standstill sooner than movements that are brought about by so many people" Arnold Schoenberg

For the 4

Which Method Can Traders Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count? | Elliott Wave International | Safehaven.com

SunTrader · March 9, 2012

For the 4

Which Method Can Traders Use to Confirm an Elliott Wave Count? | Elliott Wave International | Safehaven.com

Life and trading would be so easy if only I could convince other traders to coordinate price movement to form a channel more often especially when counting current waves. And not by looking at historical data.

EWI is great at theory.

And even they sometimes botch it.

ole · March 11, 2012

That is interesting and probably not surprising that the original source is the best place to start any investigations.Do you (or anyone else) have any links you can post here?

You can find a few pages about the "young" Elliott in "Dynamic Trader" by R. Miner.

rforexdad · April 6, 2012

There are some freebies available at

Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle

It is a free membership and has a tab called Free stuff - It even has a 280 pages book free that you can read online.

Currently I believe (I am not an expert)

I believe that EUR/USD as I write is in a corrective wave

and I am long with a target of 1.3110

I still believe the EUR/USD will go to 1.3150 but I want to play safe and

I shall post a jpeg tomorrow.

SIUYA · May 3, 2012

FWIW - Just thought of this as a current example....and it was not too hard to see in real time, as the last two days down have been severe in recent comparative daily moves.

Not to count waves etc, but when you see something like this forming, and has 5 waves down

now you can either do nothing. (This was my choice as I had shorted this morning got shaken out for a small gain, and headed out to do some chores, plus I am meeting someone this afternoon - lame, and a bugger but hey thats trading)

or

.....if its probably still worth a short if you can get in at a reasonable point BUT, - it tells me if the move down does not continue - get out ASAP, as the reversal will be severe.

or

.....look to get on the reversal - punting the bottom in some manner.

point is - this is how i use elliot waves when they seem to just show themselves, and I can then adjust for what I think I will do. Choices to cut or enter were many depending on what you like....the overall context is the important element for me.