Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Ammeo 10]

Weaker Gold Prices Seen For Next Week – Survey Participants

Gold prices may continue to exhibit weakness following two weeks of softer values, said a majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey.

 

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 22 responded this week. Six see prices up, while 12 see prices down and four see prices trading sideways or neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

 

Last week, a nominal number of participants were bearish. As of noon EDT, Comex June gold prices were down about $43 an ounce on the week.

 

Those who see weaker prices said there are few bullish catalysts to propel gold higher.

 

“Gold futures should remain under pressure as long as the issues with Russia and the Ukraine fade and investors remain focused on the thoughts of tapering (stimulus) and rising interest rates,” said Phillip Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

 

Participants who see higher prices next week said they expect gold to hold this week’s lows that as of 11:45 a.m. EDT were around $1,286.10 for the June Comex contract.

 

Kevin Grady, owner of Phoenix Gold Futures and Options, said he expects buyers will enter the market at these lower levels.

 

“I still believe that the physical market is directing our underlying price…. In the gold forward rates we noticed that the physical tightness dropped off as we approached the $1,400 level. This situation put the shorts in control.

 

We have noted that the rates have gotten tighter as we broke the $1,300 level. It appears that the price-sensitive buyers are back. We need to hold our major support level of $1,270 for gold to rebound,” Grady said.

 

Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN, said he expects prices to trade in a sideways pattern next week after the recent price fall. “The June contract (is) testing support at $1,289.50. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous rally from $1,186.70 through last week’s high of $1,392.20. Next week could see the contract consolidate,” he said.

 

Weaker Gold Prices Seen For Next Week ? Survey Participants | Kitco News

[Ammeo 10]

Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week

 

A majority of participants in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey look for the price of the metal to rise next week.

 

Out of 33 participants, 18 responded this week. Eleven see prices up, while five see prices down and two see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

 

 

Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week | Kitco News

[SunTrader 10]

They are 0 for 2 so far. Next week then should be down.

[kuokam 10]

Anyone know what might be the best gold (inverse) correlation for the now ?

USD? CHF? AUD? SP500? BONDS/RATES ? OIL?

Edited April 5, 2014 by kuokam

[Ammeo 10]

A fantastic article by Paul Craig Roberts with charts on gold manipulation by the federal reserve...

 

The Federal Reserve Has No Integrity - PaulCraigRoberts.org

[Patuca 13]

A fantastic article by Paul Craig Roberts with charts on gold manipulation by the federal reserve...

 

The Federal Reserve Has No Integrity - PaulCraigRoberts.org

Shhh...wihisper that.....mr roberts is not looked upon too kindly by the bearish goldies here and elsewhere LOL

 

PS gold is bullish

[SunTrader 10]

It's fantastic if you are a permabull or fond of wearing tinfoil hats maybe.

 

For instance: "Almost every week it is possible to illustrate the appearance of a large number of contracts shorting gold at times of day when trading is thin."

 

Ok well then illustrate it.

 

Showing charts and price movement around fed announcements times shows .....price movement around fed announcement times. All markets move then, so?

 

Price isn't going the way they think it should. It never does. It goes the way supply and demand says it should. And right now there isn't the demand to make it go higher. Plain and simple. But they would rather have someone to blame for their incorrect analysis.

 

Brilliant!

Edited April 7, 2014 by SunTrader

[Patuca 13]

It's fantastic if you are a permabull or fond of wearing tinfoil hats maybe.

 

For instance: "Almost every week it is possible to illustrate the appearance of a large number of contracts shorting gold at times of day when trading is thin."

 

Ok well then illustrate it.

 

Showing charts and price movement around fed announcements times shows .....price movement around fed announcement times. All markets move then, so?

 

Price isn't going the way they think it should. It never does. It goes the way supply and demand says it should. And right now there isn't the demand to make it go higher. Plain and simple. But they would rather have someone to blame for their incorrect analysis.

 

Brilliant!

Thank you. Tin foil hats it tis! :helloooo: Within a few months you may be racing down to that gold dispensing machine in Boca Raton. Let us know how that goes :rofl:

 

Cheers sundial!

Edited April 7, 2014 by Patuca

[Tradesight 10]

Anyone know what might be the best gold (inverse) correlation for the now ?

USD? CHF? AUD? SP500? BONDS/RATES ? OIL?

 

For sure the USD is the best instrument that is inversely correlated to gold. Keep in mind that there are times when the correlation disconnects. Plus it's obviously liquid and there are many different ways to leverage it so it doesn't consume much capital for hedging.

[Ammeo 10]

Gold prices are restricted by $1330 - $1335 resistance zone while Silver seems capped by 20.60 level for the near term.

[SunTrader 10]

Gold prices are restricted by $1330 - $1335 resistance zone while Silver seems capped by 20.60 level for the near term.

 

Agree if Gold reaches but in the meantime Thursday/Friday's double top 1324 is current resistance which I think will hold as daily ranges and volumes have been shrinking.

 

Meantime Silver, which is a proxy for the health of the world economy has been stuck in a tight range for two weeks now, held down by BRN of $20 with only a couple of spikes above it, and looking ready to roll over.

[Patuca 13]

Gold is bullish. Silver will tag along and may soon lead the way.

[SunTrader 10]

Opps !

[SunTrader 10]

Weekly chart shows still got one more wave down to go:

[MightyMouse 12]

Gold is bullish. Silver will tag along and may soon lead the way.

 

I hope you live long enough to benefit from your predictions.

[SunTrader 10]

Went back randomly (clicked page 24 - 1st post on top) and found this from last August.

 

"PS GOLD IS BULLISH AND THE ES IS THE MOST BEARISH IT HAS BEEN THIS YEAR"

 

:doh:

[Patuca 13]

Went back randomly (clicked page 24 - 1st post on top) and found this from last August.

 

"PS GOLD IS BULLISH AND THE ES IS THE MOST BEARISH IT HAS BEEN THIS YEAR"

 

:doh:

still very true...anytime now....

[MightyMouse 12]

still very true...anytime now....

 

Your persistent bullishness reminds me a bit of Bagdad Bob, the former Iraqi propaganda minister under the Hussain regime:

 

"Surrender or be burned in their tanks."

 

"No I am not scared and neither should you be!"

 

"We have them surrounded in their tanks"

 

"They're not even [within] 100 miles [of Baghdad]. They are not in any place. They hold no place in Iraq. This is an illusion ... they are trying to sell to the others an illusion."

[Ammeo 10]

$1305 becomes important resistance level for the yellow metal, breaking which $1308 and $1315 can provide consecutive levels to the gold prices.

[Patuca 13]

Your persistent bullishness reminds me a bit of Bagdad Bob, the former Iraqi propaganda minister under the Hussain regime:

 

"Surrender or be burned in their tanks."

 

"No I am not scared and neither should you be!"

 

"We have them surrounded in their tanks"

 

"They're not even [within] 100 miles [of Baghdad]. They are not in any place. They hold no place in Iraq. This is an illusion ... they are trying to sell to the others an illusion."

LOL ......bagdad Patuca...well we shall see....pm will arise quickly and defeat the naysayers...we have them surrounded..the bears will have to surrender or be burned in the rise....

[Ammeo 10]

Gold set for weekly drop on funds selling ahead of U.S. data (Fri May 2, 2014)

Gold steadied on Friday after two losing sessions but was headed for its second week of losses in three on expectations of a robust U.S. jobs number and continued selling in the top bullion-backed exchange-traded fund.

 

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust dropped 2.39 tonnes to 785.55 tonnes on Thursday, after losing 4.19 tonnes on Wednesday.

 

The fund saw an outflow of 25 tonnes in April, the first monthly outflow after two months of inflows and worst since December. Its movements are a good measure of underlying investor sentiment.

 

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,284.88 an ounce by 1006 GMT, ranging in the narrowest trade for four months. It was down about 1.4 percent for the week.

 

U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.7 percent to $1,284.20 an ounce.

 

Investors were eyeing the U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report, due to be published at 1230 GMT, for further clues on the economy, which has shown strength in recent weeks after a severe winter hurt the first quarter.

 

Gold prices would come under pressure if growth exceeded economists' expectations for a 210,000 increase in jobs and a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.6 percent.

 

Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve looked past a dismal reading on first-quarter U.S. growth and gave a mostly upbeat assessment of the economy's prospects as it announced another cut in its massive bond-buying stimulus.

 

"For gold, the salience of the nonfarm payrolls seems somewhat reduced by the Fed seemingly being on auto pilot with regards to its tapering activity," Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said.

 

"A bad number, given the GDP data earlier this week, would call into question the strength of the economy, but seems unlikely to change the Fed's policy."

[SunTrader 10]

Gold set for weekly drop on funds selling ahead of U.S. data (Fri May 2, 2014)

 

... by 1006 GMT, ranging in the narrowest trade for four months. It was down about 1.4 percent for the week.

...

Then later in the day proceeded to close basically unchanged for the week on one of the widest range days of the year.

 

Timing is everything - and with the news most times it is not new news but old news.

[phantom 16]

 

This is a monthly Gold chart.

 

Doesn't look too bullish to me...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[Patuca 13]

[ATTACH]38165[/ATTACH]

 

This is a monthly Gold chart.

 

Doesn't look too bullish to me...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

it all depends on how you draw the lines....

[morpheustrading 10]

For what it's worth, here are my thoughts on the state of gold right now (reposting from my recent blog article):

 

From 2001 to 2011, the spot gold commodity thrilled gold bugs with nearly an 800% gain over the course of a decade-long bull run.

 

Traders and investors of SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD), a popular ETF that follows the price of spot gold, also benefited quite nicely.

 

Yet, even the most impressive rallies of any stock market in the world eventually run out of gas and enter into significant corrections or bearish trend reversals.

 

For gold, that correction began in late 2011, and the precious metal has been in a downtrend ever since.

 

On the long-term monthly chart of $GLD below, check out the clear downtrend line that began nearly two years ago:

 

 

Although $GLD is still in a downtrend (until it convincingly breaks out above the $128 to $130 level), there are now 3 great reasons to buy gold in anticipation of a substantial, intermediate to long-term rally and/or bullish trend reversal.

 

Going into today (May 5), I have listed a gold ETF for potential buy entry in my trading newsletter for the following three reasons:

 

1.) Double Bottom On $GLD Weekly Chart

 

When looking to buy a stock or ETF that is in the process of reversing a lengthy downtrend, it is easy to make the mistake of buying too soon (before a convincing bottom is in place).

 

An easy way to avoid that problem is to wait for the formation of either a higher low or double bottom to form.

 

Drilling down to the shorter-term weekly chart below, notice the double bottom that clearly formed in December 2013 and January 2014:

 

 

Although a double bottom is an encouraging sign that selling pressure in downtrending stocks/ETFs is evaporating, it is important to have additional price confirmation before buying.

 

With $GLD, the price confirmation that followed the double bottom has been developing over the past six weeks, in the form of…

 

2.) Bullish Consolidation, Reversal Candlesticks, And Volume Patterns

 

For the second week in row, and the third week within the past five weeks, $GLD tested and held support at the $123 area (pink rectangle on the chart above), then reversed to close near the highs of the week.

 

The multiple bullish reversal candles are a clear indication that bullish momentum is finally starting to dominate.

 

The 40-week moving average (orange line) has flattened out over the past few months, which is a bullish sign, but the 10-week moving average (teal line) has recently turned down.

 

As such, $GLD will need to deal with overhead resistance around the $127-$128 area on its next rally attempt (the 20-month downtrend line also converges near this level).

 

Nevertheless, I really like the solid support that has formed near the $123 level, which could turn out to be the lows of the current correction off the recent swing high.

 

Finally, the volume pattern over the past six weeks has also been bullish overall.

 

Turnover dried up throughout the first three weeks of the six-week consolidation, then began expanding as the bullish reversal candlesticks formed over the past two weeks.

 

Lighter volume during the initial stages of consolidation is positive because it indicates the sellers are drying up, absorbing overhead supply and making it easier for the equity to move higher when the buyers return.

 

The higher volume that followed over the past two weeks is bullish because each of the two bullish reversal candlesticks that formed.

 

3.) Gold Is A Great Alternative In A Shaky Market

 

The third reason to buy a gold ETF right now is not based on technical analysis, but is instead a bit of a bonus reason to start taking a position in $GLD or similar ETF.

 

Although the S&P 500 is easily within striking distance of breaking out to a fresh 52-week high any day now, the NASDAQ Composite remains below pivotal resistance of its 50-day moving average and stuck in a 2-month downtrend.

 

Unless the NASDAQ suddenly gets in gear and breaks out above multiple resistance levels, the tech-heavy index is likely to remain a drag on the broad market in the near to intermediate-term.

 

As such, our overall bias remains on the short side of the stock market, as well as buying ETFs with low to zero correlation to the direction of the main stock market indexes.

 

Commodity ETFs such as $GLD typically move independently of the main stock market indexes, and are therefore a nice alternative to buying individual stocks right now.

 

Would You Like A Slice Of Leverage With Your Gold?

 

Trading an average daily volume of 7.5 million shares, $GLD is the most popular gold ETF.

 

However, if you have a small account or are seeking greater potential returns, you might consider buying one of the leveraged gold ETFs instead.

 

Like $GLD, the Gold Double Long ETF ($DGP) tracks the price of spot gold commodity, but is leveraged to move at double the percentage gain/loss of gold futures.

 

For even more bang, you may even consider buying $GLDL or $UGLD, both of which are designed to move at three times the price of spot gold.

 

As a reminder, leveraged ETFs are most suitable for short-term (and sometimes intermediate-term) momentum trading because they often underperform their underlying indexes as holding period increases.