Gold Bullish or Bearish

[bobcollett 10]

Here is an interesting article for comment

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Here is an interesting article for comment

regards

bobc

I couldn't do a copy/paste to reference the last part from page two about CPI, but in regards to that I read this earlier today:

 

"With the U.S. economy relying less on oil and gas imports than at any time in two decades, energy expenses for Americans have fallen and cut into inflation more than any other living cost in the past year, according to data compiled by the Labor Department. Economists say consumer prices will rise less than 2% for a second straight year in 2014, the first time that’s happened during an expansion in a half-century."

 

So I'd say, for the U.S. at least, low inflation means low interest rates but strong dollar - especially because of improved balance of payments and increased tax revenues for the feds.

 

And therefore lower gold.

[MightyMouse 12]

 

So I'd say, for the U.S. at least, low inflation means low interest rates but strong dollar - especially because of improved balance of payments and increased tax revenues for the feds.

 

And therefore lower gold.

 

Low inflation means higher real interest (interest - inflation) which means the dollar becomes a safer haven which means foreigners become more likely to leave thier money on account in US banks, treasuries, and etc, rather than exchange it for accounts in local or other currency

 

A strong dollar tends to decrease the attractiveness of our exports and increases the trade deficit.

 

Gold needs a crisis and with each positive economic report, a crisis looks less and less likely to occur. Gold has been a horrible inflation hedge. Land is probably a better hedge against inflation.

[Ammeo 10]

Gold coud still be trading at much over-valued price even with so much drawdown in 2013 ..

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-incredible-gold-interest-rate-correlation-2014-01-22

[Ammeo 10]

I have a small short 1258 now to reach 1248 and look for reversals there between 1240-1248.

[SunTrader 10]

Not a good idea to short into a drop.

 

The opposite, shorting an up move, is likely more successful but of course harder.

[Ammeo 10]

Not a good idea to short into a drop.

 

The opposite, shorting an up move, is likely more successful but of course harder.

 

Yes i think i may have gone wrong this time, i was thinking its gonna tank for a while,...

[kuokam 10]

Always easier to make the call one week later...

 

Yes i think i may have gone wrong this time, i was thinking its gonna tank for a while,...

[SunTrader 10]

What is that supposed to be in referenced to?

[bobcollett 10]

Always easier to make the call one week later...

 

Hi kuokam

Ammeo had the balls to make a prediction, and he will be wrong more often than right.

Thats trading !!!!!!

regards

bobc

 

PS We look forward to your next call

[peterevanson 10]

I think it is bearish. One should invest in a gold with care.

[Ammeo 10]

Daily Close Above 1248 - 1255 needed for bullish momentum

S - 1248 - 1241 - 1230 - 1222(Close below bearish)

R - 1255 - 1272(Close above bullish)

[Ammeo 10]

XAU Drivers of Price

Demand

Supply

Global economy showing signs of high inflation

Asian demand esp China and India (for jewellery)

News does have a transient effect but it fades unless it affects the above

News for Gold

Gold News | Gold Market Analysis & Gold Investment Research - Gold Price Commentary & Forecasts

[SunTrader 10]

Global economy is showing signs (for many years now actually) of ...... excess capacity.

 

Which will keep a lid on inflation.

 

Gold might get to 1400, 1500 and even into the 1600's in the next year or so.

 

But unless there is another global financial meltdown soon it probably won't see new all time highs for years and years more.

 

What is more likely though is for it to move back down towards the 1000 (or lower) level.

[Ammeo 10]

EW forecast for gold ..

[kuokam 10]

These EW'ers can't be serious. Where does the count start? where does it end?

Again, so easy from the right edge backwards.

 

EW forecast for gold ..

[kuokam 10]

In pictures veritas...

[Ammeo 10]

Summary of gold for the past week

 

Nothing new to report. As if! The rally since 27th Decber 2013 continues unabated. THe driving forces behind the move seem to be a concoction of upbeat market sentiment against the reality of political spin being consistently proven wrong in Washington and the rest of the world. At the moment, the only state in the United States of America that is long on the economy is The United States of DC and the White House spin doctors. Government appears to have blown so much smoke up its own a$$ that it believes its own bull. Yellen throws out some continued threats about continued taper and Uncle Sam's jobs numbers are still shrinking. The poor are getting fired and the rich are getting stinking rich. Sooner or later the rich will have no employees and the poor will have no money and rebel. The smart investors, the middle class are putting their money to safety in precious metals and other hard commodities which is driving the gold market higher and the property bubble to bursting point.

 

Gold just proves that the global economy is slowing down to a standstill as China begins to falter on economic growth and expansion. Europe is discovering to its cost that the farming of jobs out to China is probably the worst idea that Maggie Thatcher ever came up with. Breaking the union grip on British industry sent their manufacturers to the wall because board members were more interested in fatter profits that the wellbeing of the nation that they lived in. The US economy is discovering that China is a huge risk to their survival and if China attacks Japan then there is a big chance that there will be a proxy war that is that cannot be won with aircraft carriers by any agressor or defender. The economics of war would determine that a market crash would vote the financial power out of the market into depression.

 

The only solution is for Japan to stop prinitng it's valueless currency and start manufacturing jobs figures like the US already is. The fact that a little election in Japan can put that much faith in the Yen means the battle is far from over. As all but one American state is bearish on growth means that Obama is now in his last term and with poll figures at the lowest since ever before... well, Mugabe would be proud. A dictatorship without bloodshed so far. What's next? A famine or dustbowl like the Great Depression? I think the midwest better be prepared for a long hot summer and little monetary rain. Gold is long and $60 away from being properly bear.

 

If gold cannot rally to 1360, and falls over here, it will begin a long climb much higher into 1400 as a most likely outcome. However, if it climbs to 1360 and falls over, then we can expect a fall down for a while then see it rise towards 1500's or more. Physical demand in gold is down and the South African mines are about to close agains t the wishes of the workers. Knowing that the Mine bosses are slave drivers, there will be increased pressure from their government o keep the mines open, ALA Mugabe Regime tactics of guns and wages. Gold must therefore rise in price or suffer scarcity and rise in price. A slowdown in demand for gold globally has begun to change as reality kicks in for realist traders. 1181 was as close to cost price gold as we were likely to get. Maybe the next down leg will show a new cosr of gold support....

You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.

[SunTrader 10]

Which ever permabull wrote that they forgot one word.

 

The bear market rally since .....

[Patuca 13]

Bullish for gold.....yep bullish..

[Ammeo 10]

Bloomberg forecasters have given it a bearish outlook atm, more here..

 

Top Two Gold Forecasters Remain Bearish After 2014 Rally - Bloomberg

[Ammeo 10]

A pull back to $1,300(ish) puts us on top of the long term descending trend line from 2011, but there's support just above that around yesterday's low of $1,307, minor support at $1,293(ish), and $1,278(ish) is the January high and rising channel support from the December low which would be the optimal pull back.

 

On the other hand, if gold breaks above $1,325 then forget about a pull back and look instead to the October high around $1,360.

[MightyMouse 12]

One mo time at breaking below 1200. Lots of fire power.

[bobcollett 10]

One mo time at breaking below 1200. Lots of fire power.

 

C'mon Mighty Mouse,

How are you going to trade your comment?

Are you suggesting going SHORT at 1332, and looking for the1200 LOW?.

Or are you already short and hoping for that LOW?

I wonder if you even have a position with a comment like this.

regards

bobc

[MightyMouse 12]

C'mon Mighty Mouse,

How are you going to trade your comment?

Are you suggesting going SHORT at 1332, and looking for the1200 LOW?.

Or are you already short and hoping for that LOW?

I wonder if you even have a position with a comment like this.

regards

bobc

 

I would suggest that anyone who is not short should get short and look for the attempt at the 1200 level or even lower. I don't know when they should get in, but any time or price is as good as the other if price continues lower. I hope that is clear.

 

I am short now. Have been nothing but short in gold for a very long time, and have not been continuously short. I have had both gains and losses trading from the short side. I have lost more trades than I have made money on and I have made more money than I have lost.