Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Ammeo 10]

Before NFP 830am announcement it ............. dropped.

 

The move up was immediately thereafter.

 

hmmm, i was on the bigger timeframe, the minimum i go is 30 mins, lesser TF is headache sometimes...

[Ammeo 10]

My technical view for GOLD next week.

Currently gold is playing inside 1180.21 to 1267.39 range (Consensus Area).

 

So, if next week gold can not stay above 1267.39, i think gold will be back playing inside 1180.21 to 1267.39 range again.

But, if next week gold can stay above 1267.39, so i think gold will be playing inside 1267.39 to 1433.41 range (previous Consensus Area).

[SunTrader 10]

I am thinking we are only in 3 waves down of final wave 5 of 5 so if Friday's low is taken out yet another correction to bear trend is over and downtrend resumes. Then 1100-1000 within reach.

 

If Oct 15th low 1252 is breached to the upside, with a close above this, then wave count is incorrect and probably 1400 at least should be reached.

 

If am favoring the first scenario until price says otherwise.

[bobcollett 10]

I am thinking we are only in 3 waves down of final wave 5 of 5 so if Friday's low is taken out yet another correction to bear trend is over and downtrend resumes. Then 1100-1000 within reach.

 

If Oct 15th low 1252 is breached to the upside, with a close above this, then wave count is incorrect and probably 1400 at least should be reached.

 

If am favoring the first scenario until price says otherwise.

 

Long Gold at breakout 1248

First target 1275

Real target 1322

Looks like a home run coming.

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

I am thinking we are only in 3 waves down of final wave 5 of 5 so if Friday's low is taken out yet another correction to bear trend is over and downtrend resumes. Then 1100-1000 within reach.

 

If Oct 15th low 1252 is breached to the upside, with a close above this, then wave count is incorrect and probably 1400 at least should be reached.

 

If am favoring the first scenario until price says otherwise.

 

Hi SunTrader

We all have our methods

Counting waves is very subjective. If you get it right, its a big winner.

 

Now watching Bond yields is objective. As long as the yield stays below 3 %, gold will rise.

Easy :helloooo:

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Long Gold at breakout 1248

First target 1275

Real target 1322

Looks like a home run coming.

regards

bobc

Close above as in daily close, not high penetration.

 

But let me add another qualifier to this:

 

Daily close above the daily close of that date and not just the low. On my chart that is 1275 or your first target.

 

GL

[SunTrader 10]

Hi SunTrader

We all have our methods

Counting waves is very subjective. If you get it right, its a big winner.

regards

bobc

Yes I have my methods but one thing that isn't subjective is, the trend is still the trend and until such time as it changes ..... and its been down for a long while now.

[kuokam 10]

Golg FUTURES flash crash explained

 

Nanex ~ 06-Jan-2014 ~ First Gold Halt of 2014

[SunTrader 10]

Yesterday's news.

 

But nonetheless Nanex should know the CME doesn't trade stock...... "so as not to trip the CME's stop logic and halt the stock". Or a better job of editing.

[bobcollett 10]

Yesterday's news.

 

But nonetheless Nanex should know the CME doesn't trade stock...... "so as not to trip the CME's stop logic and halt the stock". Or a better job of editing.

 

Dear SunTrader

We all realise you had a tough childhood, up in them Kentucky hills.....

but you are becoming a cynic. Never a good word.

Tomorrow morning, try this famous Dale Carnegie idea.

Say to yourself

"I realise I should have been long Gold, at least up to 1275 .

I will try and change my ways" :haha::haha:

Your friend

Bob

[SunTrader 10]

Dear SunTrader

We all realise you had a tough childhood, up in them Kentucky hills.....

but you are becoming a cynic. Never a good word.

Tomorrow morning, try this famous Dale Carnegie idea.

Say to yourself

"I realise I should have been long Gold, at least up to 1275 .

I will try and change my ways" :haha::haha:

Your friend

Bob

Born and raised in the Big Apple. Plenty of tunnels but no hills.

 

And I'm a realist, not a cynic and that is why I trade with the trend.

 

You've been trying to get me to go long a couple of times already. Why? Find it bit lonely doing so?

 

Because when its all said and done dollars are made with the trends and pennies (2 or more) are made with the counter trends.

 

Back in my youngin days I took a Dale Carnegie course. True story.

 

Can't you tell ....................... it didn't help. :rofl:

[MightyMouse 12]

 

You've been trying to get me to go long a couple of times already. Why? Find it bit lonely doing so?

 

 

Actually, most are long or keep trying to get long. You are the lonely one.

[SunTrader 10]

Actually, most are long or keep trying to get long. You are the lonely one.

Oh yeah, true.

 

Didn't think about that.

 

:thumbs up:

[SunTrader 10]

Hi SunTrader

We all have our methods

Counting waves is very subjective. If you get it right, its a big winner.

 

Now watching Bond yields is objective. As long as the yield stays below 3 %, gold will rise.

Easy :helloooo:

regards

bobc

Hey Bob

 

Read this one again. Don't you mean yield above 3% gold is good to buy?

 

Sun

[bobcollett 10]

Hey Bob

 

Read this one again. Don't you mean yield above 3% gold is good to buy?

 

Sun

 

Hi SunTrader,

I am not very good at this but I will try....

I have never traded Bonds, but I "dealt " in Preferecnce Shares in my first job on the stock exchange......1968

And Prefs are very similar, just a much smaller market

 

Bonds are inversely related to interest rates

If a bond pays less interest , it is worth more

eg $100 bond pays 3% pa = $3 pa.... everything is in balance

Interest rate falls to 2.9% =$2.90 pa... the guy who issued the bond has a lower cost, but the poor bond holder is getting less, so the price will adjust

 

For the bond issurer

100 =2.9

x = 3

Therefore 100 x 3 / 2.9 = $103.45 ... a nice capital gain.

 

For the bond holder

100 = 3

x = 2.9

Therefore 100x 2.9 /3 = $96.66

 

The bond holder has suffered a Capital loss (unless he holds to maturity)

So he will sell his bond and Buy something else...... maybe GOLD

 

I think a Bond dealer should add a bit more to my poor explanation

But at the end of the day, if interest rates are below 3%, (which was the high ) Gold will rise.

regards

bobc

 

PS I think you know all this , so I am wondering why you asked the question?

 

PSS.. Low interest rates will be the destroyer of our wealth, but thats another thread

 

PSSS. Gold back to $249. I am getting nervous

[bobcollett 10]

Paging Bob C. pick up the "White Courtesy Phone" and phone home.

 

Oh ok nobody pages anymore.

 

But hope you are not still bullish? Yet!

 

Hi SunTrader

And I did see this, but after the last three lines of my attachment,and not one person offered support,what would you do? Would you carry on posting on TL

bob

 

PS mitsubishi sent me a PM

I talk to Silver by email

But my friend Patuca is gone

[SunTrader 10]

Hi SunTrader

And I did see this, but after the last three lines of my attachment,and not one person offered support,what would you do? Would you carry on posting on TL

bob

 

PS mitsubishi sent me a PM

I talk to Silver by email

But my friend Patuca is gone

Oh sorry to see this, for the first time, totally unjustified (IMO) rant leveled in your direction.

 

And actually if anyone has been known to throw's a child's tantrum around here it is Steve Matrix. But the lest said about him the better.

 

I don't blame you for being a stranger here but I'd just ignore the idiots. I've had to do the same over on f...x factory.

 

Meanwhile yes I do know bonds and their yields are inversely related. But I have read conflicting opinions lately about whether or not rising yields would be bullish for Gold this time. I know historically they have. Wish I kept a link from one of the story.

[Patuca 13]

Gold is bullish...bye

[Ammeo 10]

I had entered 2 SHORTS at 1251 weird unpredictable & volatile right now

[Ammeo 10]

Gold is bullish...bye

 

 

Short term---> maybe, im still expecting it to be going down after a recent bullish move...

[kuokam 10]

So JP Morgan said you need an astrologer. Lol... reminds me of this "grand tradeur" I once saw on a french program asking his astro what the charts were saying

[MightyMouse 12]

So JP Morgan said you need an astrologer. Lol... reminds me of this "grand tradeur" I once saw on a french program asking his astro what the charts were saying

 

JP Morgan never said that. Barry Rosen said that JP Morgan said that.

 

JP Morgan could give a shit what the markets did. He was interested in earning fees, commissions, etc and trading with privileged information. I said that.

[SunTrader 10]

Full moon tomorrow 4:52am and at maximum apogee for the year a couple of hours before at 1:54am

Edited January 15, 2014 by SunTrader

[Ammeo 10]

I think the price may go south (large swing) in next two weeks, but before that it has to reach 1260-1268, to satisfy the technical pre-requirements. Large selling order is accumulating around 1268. If 1275 breaks, then it will head to 1300.

[SunTrader 10]

I think the price may go south (large swing) in next two weeks, but before that it has to reach 1260-1268, to satisfy the technical pre-requirements. Large selling order is accumulating around 1268. If 1275 breaks, then it will head to 1300.

And how do you determine that?

 

And if so then why would it break 1275 if there is a large selling order below it?

 

I see 1260-1270 being a strong resistance zone after previously being support but nothing special about 1275.

 

And 1300 other than being a BRN mean nothing technically also.