Gold Bullish or Bearish

[MightyMouse 12]

If someone had asked you, would you have told them those were all ‘dollar’ trades?

Would you tell them how much net one has to make across these times on “Bonds, S&P, Crude, Gold” to keep up with the 2258.6% over the effective life of the fed fiat, depreciating purchasing power of the dollar?

 

To dollar bulls, dollars are really worth something. To ‘gold bugs’ and ‘abugs’, if dollars are not going to be worth anything at some point – the trend is down - they really are only precariously worth something (like an already broken promise) now…

 

Not trying to pick an argument… Yes “Its all good…” a trader will trade anything that is liquid, moves enough in ‘relative value’, and is not too expensive to carry. .. and I’m right up in here with all the other traders …

 

the point? ... when all is really ‘well’, gold is neither bullish nor bearish… it doesn’t have Historical gold prices % moves per year up OR down like that… it wouldn’t be on your “all good” list…

ie folks, concluding that the ‘new normal’ really is normal is delusional, not adaptive … even for “its all good ‘traders’”

ie folks, selectively ignoring certain time frames to keep the narrative intact will not work over the long term…

and, folks, if you ain’t in it for the long term, best go ahead and find a better use of your time NOW.

 

:campy:

Yesterday is a memory.

Tomorrow is a dream.

Today is a gift.

That’s why we call it

The Present…

A drunk who accumulates empty bottles will outpace someone who hoards dollars. Anything tangible will outpace fiat money in the long run. It doesn't have to be gold.

[zdo 20]

A drunk who accumulates empty bottles will outpace someone who hoards dollars. Anything tangible will outpace fiat money in the long run. It doesn't have to be gold.

 

sepn one litl' thing ociffer, most of these bottles are "too expensive to carry"

 

we wax too hegelian

it's your audience

 

we now return you to your regularly scheduled posting...

[Patuca 13]

Thanks for posting that link.I actually found it very interesting,the historical context.It seems to me that gold has rocketed due to the last bear market which was a global crisis with the potential to be worse than 1929.Hardly a revelation but when you look at the historical price,it really emphasizes how people forget history,why they can't see a bubble right in front of them.

1864- the price took a big hike,i guess that is connected to the US war of independence?

When I slagged off Gordon Brown for selling gold cheap.He sold btw 1999-2002,looks like his biggest "crime" was being unable to predict a bubble 6 years before it happened.History can be cruel.

So,for decades the price of Gold hardly moved-normal,bubbles not normal.

Everything to the left (history) is free information-works on all fractals/timeframes.

why is gold a bubble and the indices aren't?

[SunTrader 10]

so you're not really addressing those who .........

Something else I don't care about.

 

Want to try a 3rd?

 

Because all I care about is me (and price) right now. All else is noise.

[Patuca 13]

Is it easier to guess where price will be 15 minutes away ...5 minutes away...2 minutes away...or 1 day away...1 week away..1 month away...1 year away.? Or is it equally as hard to guess price one minute away as 1 year away?

[Patuca 13]

Mits is there a devil?

[Patuca 13]

Capt Bob says.......And for all the disbelievers

The BEARS ........ me included :doh:

Ignore Patucas advice at your own peril I haven't seen Patuca for a few days.Over on the "Live trading currencies " thread, he said he was" as thick as a knot in a piece of wood",and nobody DISAGREED

I wonder if he's sulking?

My only advice is never do what I say do and certainly never do what I do. Thirdly, never believe what I say about the markets. Fourthly, I am as hard headed as a knot on a log.

 

Trading the markets requires deep thought and meditation...a brave heart...observant eyeballs...the ability to detect the underlying....have you done your meditation today?

[bobcollett 10]

WHERE IS THE GOLD?

 

Have a look at the chart

GOFO stands for Gold Offered Forward Rate

Simply put,its collateral. You give your Gold to the bank and borrow dollars against it.

And the rate has been negative for 23 trading days. Nobody want to give their gold to the bank. They might not get it back.

 

Its also an arbitrage opportunity for the Big Boys.... way beyond me.

 

We have discussed the manipulation before, so lets not go back there.

Paper gold is rapidly unwinding, keeping the price down.......but it wont last forever

 

Can Gold be in equilibrium at about $1300 with all this.?

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

And some useless information for the esoteric.....zdo & mitsubishi & Silver.

The Earth is travelling through the debris left by the comet Swift -Tuttle

If you watch a dark sky , you will see lots of fireballs... very pretty..

Unfortuanetly , comets bring ill phenomena with them. :evil tongue:

So dont walk under a ladder for the next week.

regards

bobc

 

PS But you can BUY gold above 1315.:idea:

[bobcollett 10]

Something else I don't care about.

 

Want to try a 3rd?

 

Because all I care about is me (and price) right now. All else is noise.

 

Dear SunTrader

Dont say things you dont really mean

:cool::cool::cool:

bob

[Ammeo 10]

Less than a year ago, gold prices were revolving around the value of $1800/oz and now they are barely staying above the $1300 threshold. We as Binary options traders who are seeking immediate gratification can ride this trend and bet on gold to sink below this value by the end of the month. News that quantitative easing might be reignited after the US economy posted subpar figures, will only aggravate the problems plaguing the precious metal. By the end of the year, we shouldn't be surprised if the prices will be half what they were one year ago, so it is unlikely for gold prices to have hit rock bottom....

[ntrader 10]

I am still bullish on gold as sooner or later investors and traders will search for a safe heaven, when stock markets start a fast correction

[SunTrader 10]

Dear SunTrader

Dont say things you dont really mean

:cool::cool::cool:

bob

What?

 

What did you expect.

 

:o

[zdo 20]

...Because all I care about is me ...

 

All unattended children will be given a cappuccino and a free kitten.

 

zdo46

 

[SIUYA 11]

All unattended children will be given a cappuccino and a free kitten.

 

zdo46

 

 

nahh.....give them all a gun and a bar of gold. Then see what happens.

[SunTrader 10]

All unattended children will be given a cappuccino and a free kitten.

 

zdo46

 

 

Do adults get :beer: and free pu... nevermind.

 

:o

[zdo 20]

nahh.....give them all a gun and a bar of gold. Then see what happens.

 

no I'll stick with cappuccino and free kittens

 

especially in this case... anti gun anti gold ... needs love, not more stuff...

[bobcollett 10]

nahh.....give them all a gun and a bar of gold. Then see what happens.

 

I wonder who "them" refers to?

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

The "MAGIC" number is 1351

In 3 months Gold has tried to break above this level 3 times,.... and failed

Yesterday New York knocked it back at 1344, like hitting a brick wall..

Thats the 6th time it failed at the 1340 level

Why?

I was hoping to see 1387

Still long but giving back profits

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

The "MAGIC" number is 1351

In 3 months Gold has tried to break above this level 3 times,.... and failed

Yesterday New York knocked it back at 1344, like hitting a brick wall..

Thats the 6th time it failed at the 1340 level

Why?

I was hoping to see 1387

Still long but giving back profits

regards

bobc

all these people talking bad about gold...their negative vibes may be stopping it...i shall chime in and declare that this time it will pop right thru that barrier....where all the negative vibes have accumulated..gold shall overcome! Gold is a champion! Gold is a gold metal winner! Go gold and silver...sock it to the indices...clobber them....beat them down..smash them...make cry babies out of your detracters....go gold!:applaud:

[SIUYA 11]

all these people talking bad about gold...their negative vibes may be stopping it...i shall chime in and declare that this time it will pop right thru that barrier....where all the negative vibes have accumulated..gold shall overcome! Gold is a champion! Gold is a gold metal winner! Go gold and silver...sock it to the indices...clobber them....beat them down..smash them...make cry babies out of your detracters....go gold!:applaud:

 

Patucca - most are not negative gold, they are negative one eyed biases. Perpetual bulls and perpetual bears are the same, so your "this time" will probably be right at some stage....but given i take your other advice of not listening to you and doing the opposite I will stick to that.

 

Looking at it - a good rally will be a selling opportunity, but a good rally will also be an alert that buying dips might be the next best option. Nothing fancy.

 

 

................

Bob - 'them' - the children Bob, the children,..... think of the little children,

[bobcollett 10]

Patucca - most are not negative gold, they are negative one eyed biases. Perpetual bulls and perpetual bears are the same, so your "this time" will probably be right at some stage....but given i take your other advice of not listening to you and doing the opposite I will stick to that.

 

Looking at it - a good rally will be a selling opportunity, but a good rally will also be an alert that buying dips might be the next best option. Nothing fancy.

 

 

................

Bob - 'them' - the children Bob, the children,..... think of the little children,

 

Hi Siuya

Your post is a trading paradox

I am already long, but have moved my STOP to 1330 , so I dont know for how long.

I want to place a BUY STOP order at 1352 to catch the breakout

And most breakouts fail.

In the mean time I will still trade the dips.

You are selling the rally to 1351 and only buying on dips.

Are you ignoring a possible breakout?

regards

bobc

I wonder which is the best procedure.

[SIUYA 11]

Hi Siuya

Your post is a trading paradox

I am already long, but have moved my STOP to 1330 , so I dont know for how long.

I want to place a BUY STOP order at 1352 to catch the breakout

And most breakouts fail.

In the mean time I will still trade the dips.

You are selling the rally to 1351 and only buying on dips.

Are you ignoring a possible breakout?

regards

bobc

I wonder which is the best procedure.

 

the difference between strategy and tactics!

I am not ignoring a possible breakout, I think given the trend is down (though for some this is debatable) I would think that any breakout is one that might provide ample opportunity to fail - if its more sustainable then I would be more inclined to think the down trend is ended, and would then look to buy dips.....you are just faster than I am.

[Patuca 13]

Hi Siuya

Your post is a trading paradox

I am already long, but have moved my STOP to 1330 , so I dont know for how long.

I want to place a BUY STOP order at 1352 to catch the breakout

And most breakouts fail.

In the mean time I will still trade the dips.

You are selling the rally to 1351 and only buying on dips.

Are you ignoring a possible breakout?

regards

bobc

I wonder which is the best procedure.

capt Bob have you so soon forgotton the ATM strategy i clearly defined or all to see? When something is in a range you are correct that most breakouts fail. So what does one do? One sells the high ...covers at the low, reverses and goes long at the low and sells the long at the high. That is the tactic...But, as we know the market doesn't always follow our tactics ....we don't even always follow our own tactics all the time so how can we expect the market to! :rofl: So, while a trader generally employs the above tactic he should also seriousley look at getting out at any level in either direction that gives him a decent profit . why? because in ranges price can meander around TOO......

 

A trader repeats and repeats (ad nauseum) until it does break out. Once it breaks out the trader would be wiser to not buy the first breakout bar. Why? Because the first breakout can fail, and often does, just getting sucked right back into the range. A trader is better off letting all breakouts from ranges confirm themselves. Say..at least 2 good bars in the breakout direction or a breakout bar then pullback and resumption of the breakout direction.

 

The further in time..i.e. horizontal that the range eats up before a confirmed breakout simply increases the chances of a breakout in either direction, when it does happen. However, a trader can assess the pressures in the range by looking at each bar. Is it bearish or bullish? Size of bars...tails on bars....amount of bearish/ bullish bars...mini price patterns. These factors can indicate the probable direction of the breakout when it does happen.

 

Remember..the deep pockets are trading ranges on both long and short side and both are making money..that is what is creating the bars. At some point in time the bears will overcome the bulls or vice versa.

 

"Home on the range (price context)..where the buffalo (big bars) roam...where the deer and the antelope (smaller bars) play....where seldom is heard a discouraging word (no emotions)....and the skies are not cloudy all day (losses can be recouped ...bad days can be will turn into better days)

 

To all who read this post...

 

Never listen to what i say and for crying out loud do not do what i do....you may lose your money....

 

The above is simply for discussion and the killing of time while i am trading. Pay no heed to it.

Edited August 13, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

Patucca - most are not negative gold, they are negative one eyed biases. Perpetual bulls and perpetual bears are the same, so your "this time" will probably be right at some stage....but given i take your other advice of not listening to you and doing the opposite I will stick to that.

 

Looking at it - a good rally will be a selling opportunity, but a good rally will also be an alert that buying dips might be the next best option. Nothing fancy.

 

 

................

Bob - 'them' - the children Bob, the children,..... think of the little children,

LOL :rofl: :rofl: of course i will be right at some stage...so will you.....

 

Is it easier to guess price direction five minutes from now say as opposed to 3 days from now or 3 months from now or is it at equally difficult to acertain probable price action on any time frame?