Gold Bullish or Bearish

[equtrader 10]

The trend is your friend and currently it is down.

[Patuca 13]

The trend is your friend and currently it is down.

if you are trading, yes..if you are investing then the trend down is the time to buy...as it nears its end..

[equtrader 10]

if you are trading, yes..if you are investing then the trend down is the time to buy...as it nears its end..

 

No difference. Money is money.

[Patuca 13]

No difference. Money is money.

it is called "catching a falling knife" smart money does it all the time. Dumb money sells their longs as prices plunge and smart is saying "give to us" we will take all you got...they are buying as price falls.. Then they manipulate it back up selling it, as it rises, to the dumb money who is getting all excited about the price going up...happens everyday..no wonder traders lose.....they do the exact opposite of what they should be doing..i.e.they should be trying to pick tops and bottoms (because unlike smart money..deep pockets..they don't have the funds to buy all the way down as price plunges)..catching the falling knife near the end of its fall..

 

Picking tops and bottoms and catching falling knifes is a great strategy. With good money management it can be very profitable..:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[SunTrader 10]

The trend is your friend and currently it is down.

Coming up on two years now.

 

But that won't stop the Gold Bugs from saying the bottom is.

 

Oh wait now the bottom is here

 

No now it is.

 

Well it might go a little lower but then definitely.

 

WTF it wasn't supposed to break that support.

 

:haha:

Edited June 26, 2013 by SunTrader

[SIUYA 11]

LOL you guys got it wrong. Imo it is a great time to buy physical gold..silver..price is great..value will probally soon (within next few months..probally within 6) start heading back up. Imo now is the time to buy...not a time for gloating..you bunch of gloaters LOL. Just remember every dog has its day...P.M., I think, will shine brightly not too long from now and you gloaters shall have a big stopper in your mouth and it will get real quiet on this thread. Except maybe ole Patuca he might just do a little gloating himself LOL...you shall see...you shall see...you shall see..:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

 

All my b.s. opinion

 

 

A couple of things that confuse me with your response....

 

You say the gold bears got it wrong????? Whats it take to get it right?

 

You 'think'...."value will probally soon (within next few months..probally within 6) start heading back up. Imo now is the time to buy" ....why not buy in a couple of months when prices...and not value start heading up????

What about those who have got the ideas of values and prices all mixed up???

 

You are right.....every dog will have its day. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day....too bad its often still useless....and heaven forbid you refer to Gold as a dog!

 

Geez Patucca I cant wait to see when you do start gloating.....especially since you have not done any of late :doh:

 

Maybe just maybe - those who are not perennial bulls or bears will also make money on the upside as well....because they trade what they see and not some belief.

[MightyMouse 12]

Can't make money in a mega-cycle if the next time it is up in price is after you are dead.

[Beansforme 10]

Over time I've done a good bit of research into the kind of trader that makes money in the long run. When it comes to commodity trading advisors, the traders who have made the most money over a long period of time are trend followers. In other words, they don't pick tops and bottoms.

 

The other group of traders that has experienced long term success are short term quant traders, but they are not trading as short term as you think...usually holding positions for 1 to 3 days. They can be consistently profitable, but once they get a lot of money under management, they have difficulty making more than single digit returns. Those that do are involved in much more complex strategies and trading across thousands of instruments.

 

Just my two cents

[zdo 20]

...

 

Someone forgot to tell all those that are selling.

 

 

Except for the ‘manipulators’ , I often wonder how many of those ‘selling’ are consuming their savings… their (not infinite) personal wealth...

(yes...many of those may even making an intermedieate step into 'chasing returns' with the proceeds of their gold sales... but still I wonder...)

 

 

…the title Gold Bullish or Bearish … might be better titled Gold Bullish and Bearish –

since there is no inflation… :helloooo: ... and

since there is no deflation… :helloooo: ... and

money is still cheap (at least for sure still cheap in JPN )…

who needs gold when you can still buy cheap dollars with dollars?…

[Patuca 13]

LOL LOL OH Sh$t....LOL LOL...Slap , jaw and knock my bacca out....you guys are so funny...AND examples par excellence of the average trader....

 

JUST REMEMBER EVERY DOG HAS ITS DAY.....:rofl: :rofl:

 

Got a great question for you market sages. What is the next move for the indices from a daily chart? Up? Down? Sideways? Don't tell me the b.s. that you don't try to predict the market, you just react. We all try to position ourselves for a future move..so we all are trying to determine the probabilities of the direction for the NEXT MOVE. Predict is hawkish to use fed terminology but react is dovish. We really are all hawkish we just try to sugarcoat predict and call it react..why? Psycological...we don't want to be wrong.

 

I shall word it a dovish way....based upon what the market has done (say s&p) emini what position would you take a position on a daily chart? You don't have to be precise. Say within the next 1 to say 4 days i will be short..or long...any takers? No? I didn't think so....

 

P.S. it is ok to be wrong..nobody will deride you..plus that is what stop losses are for..

 

is an attached daily chart of ES for you to look at. The green line is a 20 ema the gray an 89 sma for your info. This is what i look at when trading. if intraday i use same setup just off 5 minute chart. So... what is price "likely to do next"? in which direction do you see the next decisive move making?

Edited June 26, 2013 by Patuca

[bobcollett 10]

Coming up on two years now.

 

But that won't stop the Gold Bugs from saying the bottom is.

 

Oh wait now the bottom is here

 

No now it is.

 

Well it might go a little lower but then definitely.

 

WTF it wasn't supposed to break that support.

 

:haha:

 

Concentrate SunTrader

You have been short for such a long time

Why did you change your mind?

Dont let Patuca influence you.

You still need a bullish divergence bar to go long, and that was'nt there..

 

Not a train smash.

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

LOL LOL OH Sh$t....LOL LOL...Slap , jaw and knock my bacca out....you guys are so funny...AND examples par excellence of the average trader....

 

JUST REMEMBER EVERY DOG HAS ITS DAY.....:rofl: :rofl:

 

Got a great question for you market sages. What is the next move for the indices from a daily chart? Up? Down? Sideways? Don't tell me the b.s. that you don't try to predict the market, you just react. We all try to position ourselves for a future move..so we all are trying to determine the probabilities of the direction for the NEXT MOVE. Predict is hawkish to use fed terminology but react is dovish. We really are all hawkish we just try to sugarcoat predict and call it react..why? Psycological...we don't want to be wrong.

 

I shall word it a dovish way....based upon what the market has done (say s&p) emini what position would you take a position on a daily chart? You don't have to be precise. Say within the next 1 to say 4 days i will be short..or long...any takers? No? I didn't think so....

 

P.S. it is ok to be wrong..nobody will deride you..plus that is what stop losses are for..

 

is an attached daily chart of ES for you to look at. The green line is a 20 ema the gray an 89 sma for your info. This is what i look at when trading. if intraday i use same setup just off 5 minute chart. So... what is price "likely to do next"? in which direction do you see the next decisive move making?

 

Hi Patuca,

I will lay my bottom $, the ES closes down , based on the above chart.

I can see a "five finger " pattern.Can you see it .... three down bars , then two up bars.

When I was young, thats just a few years ago, this "five finger "was a ...... never mind.

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Dont let Patuca influence you.

don't worry capt bob he probally has Patuca on ignore.....

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca,

I will lay my bottom $, the ES closes down , based on the above chart.

I can see a "five finger " pattern.Can you see it .... three down bars , then two up bars.

When I was young, thats just a few years ago, this "five finger "was a ...... never mind.

regards

bobc

close down WHEN cap bob? Today or close lower 5 days from now?

[SunTrader 10]

Concentrate SunTrader

You have been short for such a long time

Why did you change your mind?

Dont let Patuca influence you.

You still need a bullish divergence bar to go long, and that was'nt there..

 

Not a train smash.

regards

bobc

Come on Bob, that was sarcasm.

 

And P. is outa sight, outa his mind - and on ignore.

 

But I'll let you know when I am no longer comfortable staying short.

[bobcollett 10]

Come on Bob, that was sarcasm.

 

And P. is outa sight, outa his mind - and on ignore.

 

But I'll let you know when I am no longer comfortable staying short.

 

Sorry SunTrader,

I took your comments seriously :doh:

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

close down WHEN cap bob? Today or close lower 5 days from now?

 

Hi Patuca

I cant answer that.

If I knew how each day would close I would move to Belize

I can tell how each day will open simply by looking at how the futures are trading.

But I think you have some ideas , and I am would like to hear them.

regards

bobc

PS Sun Trader does have you on ignore, so you dont have to share with him .He'll be sorry.

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca

I cant answer that.

If I knew how each day would close I would move to Belize

I can tell how each day will open simply by looking at how the futures are trading.

But I think you have some ideas , and I am would like to hear them.

regards

bobc

PS Sun Trader does have you on ignore, so you dont have to share with him .He'll be sorry.

I am waiting for some market sages to tell us the next probable daily move of the ES within 1 to 5 days. Nobody comes forward...think they don't want be labeled as predicting? Please everyone look at the chart. It is all there. No need of a pile of indicators...etc.

 

PS suntrader has me on ignore so suppose he can't see the chart? Maybe someone could private mail it to him?

[bobcollett 10]

I am waiting for some market sages to tell us the next probable daily move of the ES within 1 to 5 days. Nobody comes forward...think they don't want be labeled as predicting? Please everyone look at the chart. It is all there. No need of a pile of indicators...etc.

 

PS suntrader has me on ignore so suppose he can't see the chart? Maybe someone could private mail it to him?

 

Hi Patuca

I hope this is'nt going to be another version of your famous "yet" riddle, where every one had to shout monkey three times before you gave the answer.

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca

I hope this is'nt going to be another version of your famous "yet" riddle, where every one had to shout monkey three times before you gave the answer.

regards

bobc

 

[Patuca 13]

The answer my friends (to post 535) is blowing in the wind....

[Patuca 13]

no brave or foolish souls among you? Tis all in the chart. Not 100% but certainly more than 50/50....I suppose it is up to my reckless..daring... ego...to make a prediction...based upon the chart...to take a position based upon the simple chart...to declare a direction...upon reading a chart.... So here we go .......The answer my friends is blowing in the wind.....please see the attached file for a clearer understanding.

blowing in the wind.pdf

[bobcollett 10]

no brave or foolish souls among you? Tis all in the chart. Not 100% but certainly more than 50/50....I suppose it is up to my reckless..daring... ego...to make a prediction...based upon the chart...to take a position based upon the simple chart...to declare a direction...upon reading a chart.... So here we go .......The answer my friends is blowing in the wind.....please see the attached file for a clearer understanding.

 

0 out of 10 for instruction

Why Patuca? What do you see in the chart?

I think you are cheating. You saw the DOW closed down a 100 points last night.

You have to post your view in advance.

regards

bobc

[SIUYA 11]

if you turn the chart to read Wind correctly , then its going backward compared to a normal pricing chart....hence when you inverse it to correct this.....Patucca must be bullish (I assume the direction is up)

 

As for prediction.....well. Even Patucca knows there more to it than simply looking at a chart often the chart will tell only half the story....its when the story and the chart lines up.....and when they dont then its usually best to err on the side of the what the market is actually doing as its better to make money than eventually be right but broke.

 

As for the SP500 - (I dont trade or look too closely at it)

I expect it comes down to some support as the mood/context/story is in a period of possible change as a result of recent Fed action, worries on corporate profits, govt talk on world taxes, China growth or not, commodities falling etc; etc.

At support good companies will likely be worth buying again...presently it appears from looking at the chart - its in the middle - never a good place to trade....and even if it rallies in the short term IMHO its entering a sell rallies, buy dips mood.

[Patuca 13]

0 out of 10 for instruction

Why Patuca? What do you see in the chart?

I think you are cheating. You saw the DOW closed down a 100 points last night.

You have to post your view in advance.

regards

bobc

capt bob i may be a lowlife and the scum of the forum but i assure i am not cheating. Please read my post again that presents the challenge. Here is the pertinent portion of that post:

 

"Got a great question for you market sages. What is the next move for the indices from a daily chart? Up? Down? Sideways? Don't tell me the b.s. that you don't try to predict the market, you just react. We all try to position ourselves for a future move..so we all are trying to determine the probabilities of the direction for the NEXT MOVE. Predict is hawkish to use fed terminology but react is dovish. We really are all hawkish we just try to sugarcoat predict and call it react..why? Psycological...we don't want to be wrong.

 

"I shall word it a dovish way....based upon what the market has done (say s&p) emini what position would you take a position on a daily chart? You don't have to be precise. Say within the next 1 to say 4 days i will be short..or long...any takers? No? I didn't think so....

 

P.S. it is ok to be wrong..nobody will deride you..plus that is what stop losses are for..

 

is an attached daily chart of ES for you to look at. The green line is a 20 ema the gray an 89 sma for your info. This is what i look at when trading. if intraday i use same setup just off 5 minute chart. So... what is price "likely to do next"? in which direction do you see the next decisive move making?"

 

I clearly said within the next 1 to 4 days so I am giving anyone willing to jump in on the challenge a time frame of 4 days (they could have made their prediction the same day if they wished ). The challenge is to say I will be short or i will be long based upon my prediction of the Es. This post was made on the 26th so everyone has until 30th to decide which direction the Es will go decisively on a daily chart. That is , up or down. At this point it has done nothing but basically sideways since i presented the challenge.

 

So i am saying now; as for me, ..short...once price breaks 1 tick below fridays low (entry 1594) Hence i am saying BEFOREHAND as it has not yet happened. So, my prediction is south, and made within 4 days, and the position to take is short, once fridays low is broken (entry). Stoploss 1621. Initial profit target 1567. Actual exit depends on actual risks suffered as the market unfolds and not on initial stoploss. That is, i may adjust the exit depending on the actual risk i face over few days. That profit target could go up or down accordingly but the goal is to keep the r/r at least 1:1, preferably more. The initial risk is there simply if my prediction is wrong and market moves against me decisively then i get out and could even choose to get out before the initial risk is hit.

 

In summary, chart says odds favor a decline for a good swing trade. So, I predict DOWN. I think i have a 60% chance of being right on the direction. :missy:

 

I am definitley attemping to predict the market and think i have a 60% chance of being right.

 

Any other takers?

 

Where oh where are thou mits with your price rotation.....mits predicts you know....who else does?

 

Many say they don't but they really do. Their position taken announces their prediction :rofl: :rofl::rofl: :helloooo:

 

Mr steve46 predicts with his reversion theory.. Even db draws his prediction boxes..

 

Capt bob uses sun, moon, and stars to predict...

 

Trading is a game of prediction and hope. You predict and hope you are right!! Do your best to put odds in your favor. If you are wrong, you cry, then try again :rofl: :rofl: crying is good for the soul ..you know..it is ok to show emotions but only AFTER the trade. You can either rejoice and jump for joy or weep bitterly but ONLY AFTER THE TRADE IS FINISHED. Before and during the trade you must be emotionless..like a robot..analize like a computer, brutal and swift like a samurai warrior.

 

Any predictors out there? :helloooo: