Gold Bullish or Bearish

[kuokam 10]

Don't know where you got the 54 number from, but that is yet another illustration of all your interventions: pointless and often out of context.

The wizard you would like to present yourself as should know that absolutely anything can and do happen in the markets, yet you are reacting as if a subjective support can stop a currency from falling further. Depending on time frame and tactic, you can be bullish gold and make money, you can be bearish and make money.

There is a trading contest going on here at TL. Dare take it for every one to judge your abilities by themselves. Until you've done that, I would advise you to keep your ramblings for yourself.

 

 

 

Don't get yer p..... in a bunch.

 

I put "to me" because it is obvious others including yourself see things differently. Nothing wrong with that. That is how I see things - my opinion for whatever it is worth and might very well be wrong.

 

But what is 54 points in a market presently trading in the high 1300's?

 

As attached chart shows (and I would think yours does as well) since the bottom on 5/20/13 there have been 7 green candle up closes and 6 red ones down closes. Presently gold is down 17.5% for the year.

 

The upmove you see took 13 days, then 1 day to correct 50%, which should tell you something about the strength behind it.

 

I see a sideways correction and then resumption of downmove.

 

Time will tell.

Edited June 9, 2013 by kuokam

[SunTrader 10]

Don't know where you got the 54 number from, but that is yet another illustration of all your interventions: pointless and often out of context.

The wizard you would like to present yourself as should know that absolutely anything can and do happen in the markets, yet you are reacting as if a subjective support can stop a currency from falling further. Depending on time frame and tactic, you can be bullish gold and make money, you can be bearish and make money.

There is a trading contest going on here at TL. Dare take it for every one to judge your abilities by themselves. Until you've done that, I would advise you to keep your ramblings for yourself.

Opps $84 a typo, not $54. Ya got me.

 

Same difference.

 

$84 change in price for a market trading close to $1400 woopee

 

Now where did you get wizard from. :rofl:

 

All you gold bulls are so transparent. You get upset when price doesn't ONLY go up and up.

 

God forbide anyone says the chart looks bearish.

 

Can't be, never happen, got to be a conspiracy. The Fed, the big money, the exchanges.

 

They are all out to get little old me.

 

No problem. I will continue to post to others who feel it is worthwhile to have more than one opinion/cheerleader talking higher and higher without justification that makes sense.

 

While price goes lower and lower.

[kuokam 10]

Please leave me alone !

 

 

 

opps $84 a typo, not $54. Ya got me.

 

Same difference.

 

$84 change in price for a market trading close to $1400 woopee

 

now where did you get wizard from. :rofl:

 

All you gold bulls are so transparent. You get upset when price doesn't only go up and up.

 

God forbide anyone says the chart looks bearish.

 

Can't be, never happen, got to be a conspiracy. The fed, the big money, the exchanges.

 

They are all out to get little old me.

 

No problem. I will continue to post to others who feel it is worthwhile to have more than one opinion/cheerleader talking higher and higher without justification that makes sense.

 

While price goes lower and lower.

[bobcollett 10]

Dear kuokam

Relax!!!

You gave your view.

SunTrader gave his view.

I also find SunTraders posts rather abrasive ,but thats his style and I dont think he is being personal.

 

NOW, Friday was a major turn in the market, and it turned DOWN.

You should be SHORT a few contracts, with a stop at 1423.

Only BUY above 1423 for a short term trade.

Only BUY above 1500 for an investment.

 

And be careful of the dollar

This weekends reports show investers bailing out of emerging markets and back into US

Bonds. That means they have to BUY dollars to make the trade.So I dont think the dollar will weaken. But as you rightly comment, its not certain.

 

And most important....... when the S & P goes up , Gold goes down

 

Some more...

India has increased their duty on Gold to reduce demand and help their Balance of payments.There is still huge demand for Gold , but until Paper Gold has sold off ,the trend is down.So the "edge "is to watch the Gold ETF's and see if they are getting smaller.

Here in South Africa , they are still the same size ,so I wonder if my theory is correct.

 

Kind regards

bobc

 

PS $84 is a massive move for short term traders

[SunTrader 10]

.....

 

PS $84 is a massive move for short term traders

 

How do you define this?

 

I think 3-5 days.

 

But if someone missed the exact bottom on (May 20th) that represents $53 right there.

 

Truthfully now how do you see the price action since the low.

 

Uptrend or sideways?

[bobcollett 10]

How do you define this?

 

I think 3-5 days.

 

But if someone missed the exact bottom on (May 20th) that represents $53 right there.

 

Truthfully now how do you see the price action since the low.

 

Uptrend or sideways?

 

Hi SunTrader,

I know I'm a poor writer, but I cant be that bad.

I am SHORT.

There is no uptrend or sideways movement until I am stopped out at 1423.

Then I will start again.

And tomorrow morning, if Asia Gold closes down , I will add 2 more contracts.....SHORT

And I post my trades IN ADVANCE.

MORE....

When Gold falls , all marginal mines will fall faster than the majors.

So I will also short Harmony. Thats a stock in my market .

SELL 1000 Harmony at 10minutes after the OPEN for R2 a share profit.

 

regards

bobc

 

PS I dont make more money by declaring my trades in advance.

I crystalize my thinking. I force myself to find all the pros and cons.

I try to leave price action untill last, because thats the confuser.

It works.

[SunTrader 10]

Hi SunTrader,

I know I'm a poor writer, but I cant be that bad.

I am SHORT.

......

I must be a poor writer too.

 

Because I wasn't questioning if you were long or short.

 

Just what you thought the price action has been doing since the May 20th bottom.

 

Nevermind.

[kuokam 10]

My mistake, Sir !

I thought there were but civilized grown ups here.

 

Dear kuokam

Relax!!!

You gave your view.

SunTrader gave his view.

I also find SunTraders posts rather abrasive ,but thats his style and I dont think he is being personal.

 

NOW, Friday was a major turn in the market, and it turned DOWN.

You should be SHORT a few contracts, with a stop at 1423.

Only BUY above 1423 for a short term trade.

Only BUY above 1500 for an investment.

 

And be careful of the dollar

This weekends reports show investers bailing out of emerging markets and back into US

Bonds. That means they have to BUY dollars to make the trade.So I dont think the dollar will weaken. But as you rightly comment, its not certain.

 

And most important....... when the S & P goes up , Gold goes down

 

Some more...

India has increased their duty on Gold to reduce demand and help their Balance of payments.There is still huge demand for Gold , but until Paper Gold has sold off ,the trend is down.So the "edge "is to watch the Gold ETF's and see if they are getting smaller.

Here in South Africa , they are still the same size ,so I wonder if my theory is correct.

 

Kind regards

bobc

 

PS $84 is a massive move for short term traders

[SunTrader 10]

Markets don't play nice either - in case you haven't noticed.

 

.

[SunTrader 10]

Gold’s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

Gold?s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

People have blamed gold's 18 percent decline this year on many different factors: a lack of fear in the market, a bubble that has burst, talk that the Federal Reserve will soon end qualitative easing. But some market participants say the single biggest factor could be the Japanese yen.

 

"It is difficult to deny the strong correlation between the yen's decline and the consequent collapse in gold," said Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services managing director and contributor to CNBC.com's "Futures Now."

 

"As in comedy, timing is everything, and the announcement of drastic liquidity in measures in Japan, coinciding with massive long positions in the gold market, led to the exaggerated downward move in gold."

 

As the Bank of Japan's easing policy has led the yen to decline in value, the U.S. dollar has gained relative value. And a stronger dollar logically means that people are willing to pony up fewer of those dollars for gold, so gold prices should drop.

 

The trade seemed to have turned around last week, when the yen surged in value. But that wasn't enough for gold to make a serious run, even in the short term.

 

"At this point, even a stabilizing yen may not be enough to stop the negativity surrounding the gold market," Iuorio said. "When the catalyst disappears, it doesn't always mean that sentiment will revert back."

 

Worse, the yen's recent strength turned back around on Monday, ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan meeting announcement, which some think will lead to more yen weakness.

 

"In the last week or two, the markets have been disappointed by what dollar/yen has done," said Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com. "But I bought dollar/yen, because I think the Bank of Japan is scheduled to do something on asset purchases to reignite confidence."

 

 

In the longer term, Gordon believes that increasing U.S.Treasury yields will drive dollar/yen higher. He says a spike in yields would be good for gold if it reflected inflation fears. But since this move is due to expectations that the Fed will roll down bond purchases, Gordon says it will offer no help to the gold trade.

 

"This is an inflation-less recovery, and that leaves gold behind," Gordon said.

Gordon believes gold will be flat. But Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management takes an even dimmer view of gold, due to her expectations for the dollar.

 

"Simply because there's some uncertainty, you could see a bit of gold strength in the short term," Lien told CNBC.com. "But I believe the dollar is still headed higher, and for that reason, I'm still bearish on gold."

 

Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, agrees that dollar strength should continue to lead to gold weakness.

 

"All good things must come to an end, and the ominous specter of a stronger dollar, higher rates, stronger stock market and absence of inflation—all against the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating chart at the tail end of a decade-long bull market—strongly suggests that there are superior alternative investments than gold at the current time," Ross said.

 

"Now, if you want to keep some around so that you can call yourself an intellectual and sleep better at night," Ross added, "then be my guest."

[SunTrader 10]

Now Gold has "only" retraced 61.8%.

[Patuca 13]

Now Gold has "only" retraced 61.8%.

Gloating? :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[bobcollett 10]

Gold’s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

Gold?s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

People have blamed gold's 18 percent decline this year on many different factors: a lack of fear in the market, a bubble that has burst, talk that the Federal Reserve will soon end qualitative easing. But some market participants say the single biggest factor could be the Japanese yen.

 

"It is difficult to deny the strong correlation between the yen's decline and the consequent collapse in gold," said Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services managing director and contributor to CNBC.com's "Futures Now."

 

"As in comedy, timing is everything, and the announcement of drastic liquidity in measures in Japan, coinciding with massive long positions in the gold market, led to the exaggerated downward move in gold."

 

As the Bank of Japan's easing policy has led the yen to decline in value, the U.S. dollar has gained relative value. And a stronger dollar logically means that people are willing to pony up fewer of those dollars for gold, so gold prices should drop.

 

The trade seemed to have turned around last week, when the yen surged in value. But that wasn't enough for gold to make a serious run, even in the short term.

 

"At this point, even a stabilizing yen may not be enough to stop the negativity surrounding the gold market," Iuorio said. "When the catalyst disappears, it doesn't always mean that sentiment will revert back."

 

Worse, the yen's recent strength turned back around on Monday, ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan meeting announcement, which some think will lead to more yen weakness.

 

"In the last week or two, the markets have been disappointed by what dollar/yen has done," said Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com. "But I bought dollar/yen, because I think the Bank of Japan is scheduled to do something on asset purchases to reignite confidence."

 

 

In the longer term, Gordon believes that increasing U.S.Treasury yields will drive dollar/yen higher. He says a spike in yields would be good for gold if it reflected inflation fears. But since this move is due to expectations that the Fed will roll down bond purchases, Gordon says it will offer no help to the gold trade.

 

"This is an inflation-less recovery, and that leaves gold behind," Gordon said.

Gordon believes gold will be flat. But Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management takes an even dimmer view of gold, due to her expectations for the dollar.

 

"Simply because there's some uncertainty, you could see a bit of gold strength in the short term," Lien told CNBC.com. "But I believe the dollar is still headed higher, and for that reason, I'm still bearish on gold."

 

Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, agrees that dollar strength should continue to lead to gold weakness.

 

"All good things must come to an end, and the ominous specter of a stronger dollar, higher rates, stronger stock market and absence of inflation—all against the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating chart at the tail end of a decade-long bull market—strongly suggests that there are superior alternative investments than gold at the current time," Ross said.

 

"Now, if you want to keep some around so that you can call yourself an intellectual and sleep better at night," Ross added, "then be my guest."

 

Hi Sun Trader

Have you back tested this Yen/Gold correlation to see if it has worked before?

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Hi Sun Trader

Have you back tested this Yen/Gold correlation to see if it has worked before?

regards

bobc

Worked like a charm since last Oct excluding latest yen drop but not so good in the past (not shown on chart):

[trump_tower 10]

Now Gold has "only" retraced 61.8%.

 

It will go lower by the end of the year.

[Patuca 13]

It will go lower by the end of the year.

yada...yada...yada :rofl: :rofl: :haha:

[SunTrader 10]

How about that Uptrend. :did I say that?:

 

:ciao: to that for awhile longer.

 

[Patuca 13]

:roll eyes:

How about that Uptrend. :did I say that?:

 

:ciao: to that for awhile longer.

 

LOL gloating again eh? Just remember every dog has his day....of course it has to rise (indices) ..it has to test high before the plunge...once the plunge starts then pm will soon after start rising...you just wait and see you little worm.. Edited June 19, 2013 by Patuca

[MightyMouse 12]

"Support" will be treated like a whore.

[SunTrader 10]

Don't know what p-eewee had to say since I have him on ignore but if he thinks support is near, well step and buy.

 

Not me.

[Patuca 13]

Bloodletting..indices...falling....falling...falling

[Patuca 13]

Anybody attempting to catch the falling knife yet? Has the giddy rush of fed policies evaporated yet out of the markets or shall the knife continuing falling chopping off fingers as it slides through the hands of traders and investors? How much more bloodletting before the irrational enthusiam evaporates..... to more or less quote a previous fed ..um... leader...

 

You ever just wonder what the smart money does on days like today? After all they ..well..sort of engineered ...the catastrophic rise....didn't they? Many traders were running on high octane...now they are blowing out bad toxic gasses...guess who is laughing?

Edited June 20, 2013 by Patuca

[bobcollett 10]

When the Dow falls for 6 days in a row, then Gold will turn UP.

I have closed all my shorts..... very nice profit. Looking at buying a new horse.

And I am sure, I have left some money on the table.

Time to take a break: 2c:

Tomorrow is the solstice

Dont be greedy

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Thread should be renamed Gold Bearish or BEARISH.

 

I don't see a bottom anytime soon.

[Patuca 13]

LOL it is actually the exact opposite...gold..silver ARE bullish. Prices are being manipulated down with intention. Once the manipulation ends it will turn up and guess who will have it and who will be laughing.......?