Gold Bullish or Bearish

[MightyMouse 12]

MM,

re "brewing"

 

Only one question popped into my head after reading your post - it was

Why haven’t you been saying that for 8 years now?

 

Of Two Minds - Why We Won't Have a "Lehman Moment" in the 2016 Crash

Of Two Minds - Stupor Bowl 2016

Of Two Minds - The Global Economy Could Fall Farther and Faster Than Pundits Expect

 

and re: "but I do not want to be short right now"

Why not ???

:helloooo:

 

zdo

 

The perception of crisis was missing since 2009

I feel the perception of crisis is rising. I am not suggesting that we will have a crisis.

 

I have very strong opinions about the 2008 crisis that do not match up with the well known narrative.

[bobcollett 10]

Bobc,

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/20098-oil-bullish-bearish.html#post201620

See how easy that was ?!

 

Well done zdo,

I look forward to the posts

kind regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

The perception of crisis was missing since 2009

I feel the perception of crisis is rising. I am not suggesting that we will have a crisis.

 

I have very strong opinions about the 2008 crisis that do not match up with the well known narrative.

 

Well MM,

You have reached that pinnacle of success

The workers fail to understand either you or zdo.

bobc

[zdo 20]

bobc,

 

fwiw, I totally understood mm...

 

(but he didn't tell us why he wouldn't want to be short...)

 

 

 

 

zdo

 

 

PS ... and btw, we have no "workers" on this forum :rofl:

[MightyMouse 12]

bobc,

 

fwiw, I totally understood mm...

 

(but he didn't tell us why he wouldn't want to be short...)

 

 

 

 

zdo

 

 

PS ... and btw, we have no "workers" on this forum :rofl:

 

Shorts are covering. So, I don't want to be short gold. I can't get myself to be long anything other than equities, which I am no longer long. A perception of a crisis will lead to many other short opportunities.

 

Gold was a very tough market to make money short for me. I netted some overall but got chopped up. Risk vs Reward, I should have stayed away.

[SunTrader 10]

Friday's (other than NFP Friday's- like today) are usually ho hummmmm.

 

"Get your popcorn ready!!!"

[bobcollett 10]

Friday's (other than NFP Friday's- like today) are usually ho hummmmm.

 

"Get your popcorn ready!!!"

 

Hi Michael

You still short? :question::question:: :cinema:

regards

bobc

[zdo 20]

(right or wrong... we'll see...

anyways...)

I added another 5% to short (over) hedge today with Z16 when it went through 1162 on G16 contract.

Will likely only do 10 - 15% more via 'limit' and do the rest with climbing stops arrayed below...

 

Ya'll have a great weekend.

 

zdo

[MGRoberts 10]

Based on historical data bearish on gold.

[kuokam 10]

Make sure your stop is in place, things happen...

 

 

Based on historical data bearish on gold.

[bobcollett 10]

Based on historical data bearish on gold.

 

Hi MG

Did you read this somewhere?Or is this your own view? :smoking:

Hold it . I know. You are SunTraders cousin. :haha:

The $ has lost ground, with more to follow...... weak NFPReport, possible hold back on FEd action. So I would think Gold is bullish.

Kind regards

bobc

 

PS Got any ideas on Oil??

[zdo 20]

re:

"I’ve got the EUR trying to turn up, at least bounce, in the next 1-3 weeks ...

which correlates bullish PM’s over last few years"

zdo circa 1/4/16

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-222.html#post201108

 

so ... hedging SI with GC...into this EUR strength / ($ 'weakness')

... short another 5% far out months as G16 tapped near 1200...

 

btw ... I do mind getting stopped out ... but way less than these new 1200 $ 'safeheaven bulls' will.

 

JC say

We view hormesis as what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.

In reality, what doesn’t harm you too much makes you stronger.

 

 

 

 

 

All the best,

 

zdo

 

PS bobc re: "PS Got any ideas on Oil??"

You already don't like any ideas I have on Oil.

[zdo 20]

The Daily Bell - Central Bank Soap Opera Hides Financial Globalization

 

btw imo the sentence near the end that reads

"The idea is to make sure that a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. "

should read

"The idea is to make sure that YOU BELIEVE a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. "

 

:helloooo:

... no one in here has convinced me you don't believe...

[MightyMouse 12]

The Daily Bell - Central Bank Soap Opera Hides Financial Globalization

 

btw imo the sentence near the end that reads

"The idea is to make sure that a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. "

should read

"The idea is to make sure that YOU BELIEVE a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. "

 

:helloooo:

... no one in here has convinced me you don't believe...

 

"They" busy themselves with meetings and conferences, impress themselves with their credentials then take credit for positive things that happen and explain away events that were not positive. As in, " there was no way that we could have seen that coming".

[zdo 20]

As I’ve shared many times in this thread, imo, PM’s sole purpose should be for wealth preservation. Imo, these are good years to be preserving wealth. With physicals, not with paper. Hedge with paper.

PM's are not an investment - period. Yep, if you ever used the words "invest" and "gold" in the same sentence, then I'm calling you a big fat dumbass. :rofl:

PM's can be ‘traded’, but why bother when there are so many better vehicles to trade. One example: In the last two months, gold has moved on net less than 10% per month. In that same period, crude has moved nearly 10% every two trading days. And I can't tell you how much fun I've had shorting ndxs the last few months. In that light, trading gold is stupid... maybe a bunch of gold bugs who are in denial that they are even gold bugs maybe should stick with it, and specialists in trading PM’s should stick... but active leveraged traders are limiting themselves bigtime concentrating on gold contracts... jmo

 

"they"

When it comes time for the lem engs to go risk off, they go to cash. And then, typically, ‘they’ are gradually tempted out of their ‘cash’ by the call of ‘portfolio return’s and of course, the ‘consulting salesforce’ of the house. Every few cycles the narrative shifts and ‘they’ ‘invest’ in gold but what’s really happening there is - ” If an investor can’t rationalize valuation then they simply won’t invest.”

So, ‘they’ are ‘buying’ gold now only because ‘they’ can’t rationalize valuation ANYWHERE else! Their orientation is still towards the dollar... and if their 1200 gold turns against them...

 

moderator pls penalize zdo for relinking again... it bothers mm:rofl:

The Bone-Dry Half-dead Forest Awaiting An Igniting Lightning Strike Is The Global Mountain Of Debt ? Debt Which Is No Longer Supported By Current Valuations Of Commodities And Risk. « InvestmentWatch

 

I wish I was preaching to the choir... but unfortunately, I’m not.

 

we now return you to your regularly scheduled bulls and bears

[zdo 20]

Fun with digital gold (previously known as / aka paper gold)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT2BNsMSwEo

ps you don’t have to watch... if your time is limited, you can just listen

 

 

btw mm,

re your "one dimensional conversation" aversions

try go orbital

Orbital Articulation: A Theory of Higher Expression - disinformation

[zdo 20]

I’ve had this question for some time now...

Is it always tender on tender?

Traders Are Throwing Up All Over This Market: "It Feels Like The Algos Are Hooked Up To Tinder" | Zero Hedge

[zdo 20]

Bob, I got a bad feeling on this one. | Zero Hedge

[zdo 20]

Still working to add 10% more shorts into this strength. (As noted before: these trades are hedging a long physical PM position .)

Fwiw - I would be stopped out of these shorts by certain auction/price action if gold prices were to go to the 1300 to 1330 range in the projected time... we'll see.

 

 

This is 'fear/safety allocation' fiat coming in now... (and lots of it is non USD ) ... all of it is money that is typically easy to tempt back out of PM's

It's not the real deal - the capitulation - the enanthropia of belief in the system. That is not occurring YET..

There's no predicting when that will happen... but, imo, this ain't it - YET .

 

Noobs, (actually to 1 in thousands of noobs) - don't waste these days. They are wonderful times to learn how to 'fear' properly, etc. Will pay dividends in coming years.

 

:missy:

[bobcollett 10]

Still working to add 10% more shorts into this strength. (As noted before: these trades are hedging a long physical PM position .)

Fwiw - I would be stopped out of these shorts by certain auction/price action if gold prices were to go to the 1300 to 1330 range in the projected time... we'll see.

 

 

This is 'fear/safety allocation' fiat coming in now... (and lots of it is non USD ) ... all of it is money that is typically easy to tempt back out of PM's

It's not the real deal - the capitulation - the enanthropia of belief in the system. That is not occurring YET..

There's no predicting when that will happen... but, imo, this ain't it - YET .

 

Noobs, (actually to 1 in thousands of noobs) - don't waste these days. They are wonderful times to learn how to 'fear' properly, etc. Will pay dividends in coming years.

 

:missy:

Hi zdo

So what you are saying is.....

You have this long PHYSICAL position.

You actually own the Gold. :doh:

So you must have bought it years ago.

At about $1400.:haha:

And now you are hedging it. You are adding Short positions to your Long.

And if Gold goes to $1300 you will be stopped out. :helloooo:

Good luck

I still dont understand how you will make a profit. It looks like you are trying to recoup a loss

bobc

[zdo 20]

Hi zdo

So what you are saying is.....

You have this long PHYSICAL position.

You actually own the Gold. :doh:

So you must have bought it years ago.

At about $1400.:haha:

And now you are hedging it. You are adding Short positions to your Long.

And if Gold goes to $1300 you will be stopped out. :helloooo:

Good luck

I still dont understand how you will make a profit. It looks like you are trying to recoup a loss

bobc

 

Good lord bob you are projecting / making shit up in your head. Besides, if I remember correctly, I’ve explained it in this thread before.

 

I started trading futures in the mid 80’s. Young gun... first trade was 20 contracts of 30 yr bonds... 32.50 per tick... and 2 full point travel in the first hour was routine in those days. Was live in ’87 - remember it like it was yesterday. Up every morning at 5 am PST for the currency opening... a cotton mouthed adrenal wreck. Through the 80’s I blew up several times... my own money, opm, managed money... stuck with it. Then I kicked ass trading ndx futures through the 90’s.

 

On the advice of a friend - who was an Austrian econ. type, real EW master ( ie EW as a social, not price chart, phenom) who taught me the trajectory of fiat, I started heavily accumulating physical gold in the mid to late 90’s ... back when it ‘really’ was a worthless relic of the past and was going to be that way from then on... (you ever wonder why it didn’t stay that way? Like now?) .

 

Anyways, my average cost per oz is way way way below your 1400 figure. Across the last decade I have gradually traded the physical gold for physical silver... so re “You actually own the Gold.” No, now I actually own the Silver!  * If I remember correctly, I posted somewhere in here that I was putting hedge on SI the day before it peaked in Apr 2011.

(maybe you shouldn’t try, but get someone to) Do the math - I’ve got cushion. I hedge for fun. When I put on short futures contracts to hedge, it is really just locking it in relative to USD. I (over) hedge to pay the fkn taxes. Not “trying to recoup a loss” because with physicals, you don’t have to worry about purchasing power variation that much... an oz of PM will buy about the same amount of goods and services now as ever... Try saying that about your fkn fiat dollars or krutons or whatever fiat you’re brainwashed by... especially in light they are going to start charging you interest on your deposits...

 

I've intimated several times recently an anticipation of a bounce in gold... EUR bounce post... also if I remember correctly, I questioned why you bailed so easily on buying mining stocks a while back... Basically this current hedging is preparing for this to be a short lived bounce.

"The release of Genetically Modified Deflation has been postponed over and over... " zdo.

If it's not a short lived bounce, no big deal. My SI is just as valuable to me at 14 as is it is at 48...

 

Re: “ if Gold goes to $1300 you will be stopped out.” No, if gold goes into the 1300 - 1330ish range and acts a certain ways I will stop out of the 25% of the (over)hedge that will be on by that point. ... and start preparing to put it back on elsewhen....

 

*A long term ratio trade between gold and silver is the best PM trade- imo. It’s not price sensitive. Have discussed that several times in here too.

 

... also discussed previously, I am building a long scale trade in far far out months of Crude. fwiw, It’s not a ‘perfect’ scale and it’s not on the 00 handles, closer to every 3rd handle... But, in the meantime with much larger size in other accounts, I have been shorting the sht out of crude for months ... in a way (over) hedging there too.

 

Am just plain trading in ndx’s... it's not hedging - because I have been out of stocks for a long time now. Not looking for a ‘crash’ in stocks at this time... more of a slow boil down... taking the price down in small chunks, giving you a few back , then taking another small chunk... my cycle work for ndx’s was one day off early last Nov.

 

Fx trading is fully automated ~24/6. Quite active... almost aggressive trading... but prudent sizing .... no hedging there either.

 

I luv you bro and I got to tell you - the story in your head is messed... and not just the one about me.

[MightyMouse 12]

Good lord bob you are projecting / making shit up in your head. Besides, if I remember correctly, I’ve explained it in this thread before.

 

I started trading futures in the mid 80’s. Young gun... first trade was 20 contracts of 30 yr bonds... 32.50 per tick... and 2 full point travel in the first hour was routine in those days. Was live in ’87 - remember it like it was yesterday. Up every morning at 5 am PST for the currency opening... a cotton mouthed adrenal wreck. Through the 80’s I blew up several times... my own money, opm, managed money... stuck with it. Then I kicked ass trading ndx futures through the 90’s.

 

On the advice of a friend - who was an Austrian econ. type, real EW master ( ie EW as a social, not price chart, phenom) who taught me the trajectory of fiat, I started heavily accumulating physical gold in the mid to late 90’s ... back when it ‘really’ was a worthless relic of the past and was going to be that way from then on... (you ever wonder why it didn’t stay that way? Like now?) .

 

Anyways, my average cost per oz is way way way below your 1400 figure. Across the last decade I have gradually traded the physical gold for physical silver... so re “You actually own the Gold.” No, now I actually own the Silver!  * If I remember correctly, I posted somewhere in here that I was putting hedge on SI the day before it peaked in Apr 2011.

(maybe you shouldn’t try, but get someone to) Do the math - I’ve got cushion. I hedge for fun. When I put on short futures contracts to hedge, it is really just locking it in relative to USD. I (over) hedge to pay the fkn taxes. Not “trying to recoup a loss” because with physicals, you don’t have to worry about purchasing power variation that much... an oz of PM will buy about the same amount of goods and services now as ever... Try saying that about your fkn fiat dollars or krutons or whatever fiat you’re brainwashed by... especially in light they are going to start charging you interest on your deposits...

 

I've intimated several times recently an anticipation of a bounce in gold... EUR bounce post... also if I remember correctly, I questioned why you bailed so easily on buying mining stocks a while back... Basically this current hedging is preparing for this to be a short lived bounce.

"The release of Genetically Modified Deflation has been postponed over and over... " zdo.

If it's not a short lived bounce, no big deal. My SI is just as valuable to me at 14 as is it is at 48...

 

Re: “ if Gold goes to $1300 you will be stopped out.” No, if gold goes into the 1300 - 1330ish range and acts a certain ways I will stop out of the 25% of the (over)hedge that will be on by that point. ... and start preparing to put it back on elsewhen....

 

*A long term ratio trade between gold and silver is the best PM trade- imo. It’s not price sensitive. Have discussed that several times in here too.

 

... also discussed previously, I am building a long scale trade in far far out months of Crude. fwiw, It’s not a ‘perfect’ scale and it’s not on the 00 handles, closer to every 3rd handle... But, in the meantime with much larger size in other accounts, I have been shorting the sht out of crude for months ... in a way (over) hedging there too.

 

Am just plain trading in ndx’s... it's not hedging - because I have been out of stocks for a long time now. Not looking for a ‘crash’ in stocks at this time... more of a slow boil down... taking the price down in small chunks, giving you a few back , then taking another small chunk... my cycle work for ndx’s was one day off early last Nov.

 

Fx trading is fully automated ~24/6. Quite active... almost aggressive trading... but prudent sizing .... no hedging there either.

 

I luv you bro and I got to tell you - the story in your head is messed... and not just the one about me.

 

Seems like you had a good time.

 

Also seems like you have largely been in the right place at the right time, what is a few blow ups amongst friends, but I don't have the details nor do I query your integrity.

 

I will state that a hedge, partial or not, neutralizes, partially or not, the underlying position for the periods that one is hedged. Hedging, then, a good, I suppose, becomes a bad if the hedge is entered at the wrong time or entered wrong too many times.

 

A blow up, ineradicably in my mind, is not something that you recover from. You can only do it once; hence, you never blew up if you are still here.

[bobcollett 10]

Dera zdo

My "tongue in cheek" post was written to try and get you to stop posting in riddles....and use

understandable English. It was meant to show that your comments could be interpreted differently to your real meaning. And the Judge was my wife ... a qualified English school teacher.

 

It was not meant to be a personal attack.So I am sorry if my bad communication offended you.

kind regards

bobc

[zdo 20]

Seems like you had a good time.

 

Also seems like you have largely been in the right place at the right time...

Re: “luck” “right place, right time” ...Yep, everyone wants the good life, but not everyone gets the good life... to have a shot at combined results of health, love, wealth, happiness takes perseverance...

I can count on my fingers and toes the moments were I was at a critical juncture and simultaneously knew it was at a pivotal moment... in retrospect, I see there are thousands of such opportunities to 'create'.

I’d be lying if I said it has been easy. But also in retrospect, I see how I could have certainly made it easy-er...

Because it wasn’t easy... does it mean it’s ‘supposed’ to be hard?

Now it is a constant battle not to follow the path of a ‘nation’ - stoic at the beginning epicurean at the end...

 

I will state that a hedge, partial or not, neutralizes, partially or not, the underlying position for the periods that one is hedged. Hedging, then, a good, I suppose, becomes a bad if the hedge is entered at the wrong time or entered wrong too many times.

 

yep neutralized partially at this point... only 15% of the allocation is on... following the plan.

The big PM houses and holders lend gold to generate some 'investment' income on it. ( int. rates aren't right so these days, imo, that is stupid ... anyways )

(Over)hedging is sort of a way to 'lend' pms...

 

And yep it's never perfect. I mentioned posting about putting on silver hedge at the top... In real life, I was in partially on the way to 52 ... where I 'knew' it was going :crap: ... was adding more into the 49'ish spike top but it flashed in and out of there so quickly my net avg per oz on the hedge ended up being in 42.60 ish... and without some 'luck' it could have easily been down in the 30's...

 

A blow up, ineradicably in my mind, is not something that you recover from. You can only do it once; hence, you never blew up if you are still here.

 

MM,I don’t precisely what you mean by “never recover from blowing up” ... but instead of asking, I’ll just pull a bobc and project and make some sht up in my head about what you might mean...

 

My blow ups were varied. With opm, for the people I cared about I told them to cash out before ‘disaster’ ... within weeks of startup for one of them I realized I couldn’t consistently adhere to the rules we had agreed to. It surprised my (quant-y) partner because he had been elated someone could actively trade the system during the day - leaving him to his work at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ... and the account was already a bit into the green. Not a typical ‘blow up’, but inside me, that whole venture was registered as a ‘defeat’ - a ‘blow up’...

 

...anyways had a wide variety of ‘blowups’ in the late 80's...

 

Only one took me to ‘ruin’ where I personally no longer had enough money left in the account to margin anything. And to your assertion, yes - I have never fully ‘recovered’ from that. Primary traumas lay down so many layers in the body - in the myofascia, muscles, affective and effective peripheral nerves, - not to mention the brains themselves... beyond just neuronal type memory... beyond the cranio sacral system... etc. etc.. ...and may permanently alter the quality of the generation of the tiny number of new neurons ‘born’ each day in the hippocampus, etc etc...

 

I will never say NEVER! I will always keep trying to ‘heal’ all my primary traumas. I ‘believe’ it can be done - but at the same time and the

Point is - I acknowledge that the odds of fully clearing primary trauma are small.

 

What people who are not ‘permanently’ crippled / over come by a trauma do is learn various ways to prevent going to either the extreme of flooding or the extreme of numbing when the trauma’s (current) state is re- triggered by seemingly random, non related events. We can develop all kinds of strategies to keep these ‘retriggereds’ up in the realm of ‘cortical coping’ instead of leaving it down in the ‘reactive’ mid and hind brain.

(Check the web site of virtually every trading sickologist on the planet - one of the first things they all do is introduce some technique to ‘control’ emotions. A couple years ago, I got into what you’ve called a “one dimensional ” conversation with SUIYA about the futility of traders turning to therapists ... I challenged him to find me just ONE trading therapist on this planet who can really relate to trade based trauma, who can really calibrate what’s going on in the current individual, who doesn’t go into unconscious ‘co-dpndncy’ in multiple areas of the issue to make sure those areas will NEVER be dealt with... Basically, trading therapists will NOT be able to stay in the ‘chaos’ and help ... they will go into their own numb zone... I think that’s called ‘secondary trauma’. Btw, this is not the only area where trading therapists are completely inadequate... omg I digress!

You would not believe the lengths I’ve gone and still go to heal my (life and trading) traumas. It is more extensive than my ‘grail searching’ activities ever were... and this is from someone who spent 6 figures on trading ‘education’ in 80’s dollars. Guess what - finding an area of ‘tolerable conflict’ doesn’t work! Conflict manipulation to break ‘bad’ habits doesn’t work! Willpower manipulation doesn’t work! Yet the preponderance of thousands upon thousands of trading posts from the voice of trading tell you to do just those things. None of those things clear the parts of the system that holograph the trauma patterns right back into existence. None of those things destroy the ‘decision of defeat’. None of those create...! om I digress some more ! I am eating these words again as I write them... hope ya’ll also have a great lunch )

 

MM, I make up what I think you mean and agree with you ---

You can never recover from blowing up.

BUT !!!!!!!!!!!!! , you can create a new...

 

 

 

 

 

....

btw, mm, feel free to clarify what you really meant by "A blow up, ineradicably in my mind, is not something that you recover from. You can only do it once; hence, you never blew up if you are still here." - especially if I got it wrong.

[zdo 20]

Dera zdo

My "tongue in cheek" post was written to try and get you to stop posting in riddles....and use

understandable English. It was meant to show that your comments could be interpreted differently to your real meaning. ...bobc

 

It didn’t work. I decided long ago to post the first thing that pops in my head... maybe edit for grammar a little bit and keep on getting up. I don’t intentionally speak in riddles... maybe diddles, but not riddles... you all do realize how many diff. DSM categories they could pin on me don’t ya? :rofl:

 

 

And the Judge was my wife ... a qualified English school teacher.

That was very inconsiderate of you dragging her into this

 

It was not meant to be a personal attack.So I am sorry if my bad communication offended you.

 

It was not taken as a personal attack at all... it was no worse to me than most of the communication in here... was never offended...