Gold Bullish or Bearish

[MightyMouse 12]

And btw, the ‘supply’ you consistently reference across your posts in this thread is paper supply. You’re almost sure to go HATIN me on this ‘manipulation’ aspect ... but

When was the most recent authentic price discovery in silver?

The last tick -- or -- 30 years ago?

I’m almost positive your perspective is solidly ‘last tick’ and it most likely will stay that way until you get beyond

the USD purchasing power of AU ... “ how prices have dropped...”

...beyond ...

 

mm

Want some more ::razzn:? 

When you are ready “to redefine several notions” , then ...

30 years ago...

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/thirty-years-of-zero-price-discovery-in-silver-jeff-nielson.html

 

zdo

 

Decent article. I will buy the philosophical perspective, but I wouldn't buy it to be used since it won't a make me a dime; in fact, it will lose me many dimes. It doesn't matter for the here and now what the price of silver could or should be.

 

The PM derivatives markets are HUGE. Oh yes paper supply, but that is only one side of it. There is unprecedented demand. Media driven demand. As long as there is demand, the supply will keep coming. Jean-Batiste Say need not worry.

 

Everyone knows the free world is going to collapse and everyone has purchased paper PMs to hedge because it is the smart thing to do. They don't need physicals; paper will do because they know that when the world (USA) collapses, the Fed will step in again and rescue the day.

 

A busy marketing manager of a local mid size corporation, who busies his day on 13 to 21 very intense conference calls, is in on the coming move in PMs. He has bought paper PM both directly or as a fraction of a well diversified value fund in his 401(k) and IRA account. He is fortunate to have both and asstute money managler and financial revisor to look after his best interests.

 

It may very well be that the money manager made the trade because he got titties and beer from his pal at Morgan the night before, or that this sale gave the financial advisor enough sales to win the trip to Hawaii, but both are offering sound, prudent advice.

 

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker.

 

2 dimensional conversations suck.

[zdo 20]

Everyone knows the free world is going to collapse and everyone has purchased paper PMs to hedge because it is the smart thing to do. They don't need physicals; paper will do because they know that when the world (USA) collapses, the Fed will step in again and rescue the day.

 

 

are you being facetious?

 

 

Decent article. I will buy the philosophical perspective, but I wouldn't buy it to be used since it won't a make me a dime; in fact, it will lose me many dimes. It doesn't matter for the here and now what the price of silver could or should be.

 

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker.

 

 

Actually - being long physicals (silver and or gold via long term ratio trade) and over-hedging short with paperpm's can make you some very pretty dimes...

2 birds 1.1 stone

 

 

2 dimensional conversations suck.

"you used to call me on my cell phone"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqwnm-NEd4k

[zdo 20]

errata:

2 birds 1.2 - 1.5 stones

[MightyMouse 12]

are you being facetious?

 

 

 

That is why 2 dimensional conversations suck.

 

I am certain none of us want to be around after the next carnage- with or without assets.

 

How about 2029 ?

[zdo 20]

I remember back in 2029...

 

 

 

///

 

 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/annals-the-emotions/201601/depressed-and-looking-forward-the-end-the-world

Edited January 5, 2016 by zdo

[MightyMouse 12]

I remember back in 2029...

 

 

 

///

 

 

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/annals-the-emotions/201601/depressed-and-looking-forward-the-end-the-world

 

 

[SunTrader 10]

...

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker.

That. Notwithstanding yet another dead cat bounce currently.

[David B. Runyan 10]

Everyone knows the phrase "jobs are a lagging indicator" right? It goes both ways. U.S. Economy is weakening. Buy $GLD

[SunTrader 10]

Everyone also knows "the trend is your friend".

 

Well that "friend" hasn't definitively changed direction yet.

 

Buy ... if you want to be a hero calling a bottom.

[bobcollett 10]

Everyone also knows "the trend is your friend".

 

Well that "friend" hasn't definitively changed direction yet.

 

Buy ... if you want to be a hero calling a bottom.

 

You dont have to call a bottom to BUY

It called counter trend trading :)

LONG @1078

STOP now @1099

TARGET 1120 , then 1125.

 

Danger .. big positive job US report on Friday.

... US $ rising.

Catalyst....CHINA falls. GOLD rises

My view

regards bobc

[SunTrader 10]

You dont have to call a bottom to BUY

It called counter trend trading :)

LONG @1078

STOP now @1099

TARGET 1120 , then 1125.

 

Danger .. big positive job US report on Friday.

... US $ rising.

Catalyst....CHINA falls. GOLD rises

My view

regards bobc

Of course - short term.

 

But that previous poster seems to be making a longer term call.

[zdo 20]

Of course - short term.

 

 

But that previous poster seems to be making a longer term call.

 

sun,

Actually the poster was just making a call based on ‘economic’ narratives ...

and was doing no better or worse at disclosing planned holding period / time frame than any of the rest of us - including you

[zdo 20]

Subtitle = Please take PM’s lower... much lower.

 

 

All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker. mm

That. Notwithstanding yet another dead cat bounce currently sun .

As ya’ll know by now -

I call all that dollar centric, fiat bull

 

Everyone also knows "the trend is your friend".

Well that "friend" hasn't definitively changed direction yet.

Buy ... if you want to be a hero calling a bottom.

Ever be squeezin an already squeezed lemon? There is more..., but...

 

“...a strong, good looking trend... under the surface is becoming the weakest trend...” zdo

 

Bottom line / the point of this post

(...even though ‘charts’ do look weak ie slightly probable it really is on a “dead cat bounce” now )

I personally feel quite comfortable being on the long side of this mess...

 

in light of

> how just a tiny shift in the collective ‘narratives’ could drop this fkn PM bear dead in its tracks...and

 

in light of

> that buying PM’s at any ‘now’ is never really calling a bottom - if you can get beyond USD bull centric...

> and ...beyond ‘valuating’ it...

> beyond... (paraphasing CHSmith) A meltdown of China's phantom wealth triggers a meltdown in global phantom assets

> beyond...

> beyond...

> to ‘price insensitive’

...

Finally - energy , copper, FiaX, etc ... have been such easier / preferable shorts for me over the last n months...

and since early Nov. 15 been having big, fun time “calling tops”mm in indexes (yep thought I remembered an post about it... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-219.html#post200321)

... ie many better places to leverage dollars for returns now than short PM’s.

 

... long PM’s is a good place to be...

 

 

 

 

 

 

“We project in straight lines, when reality is cyclical. “ Harry Dent

Pretty Soon Chancellor Merkel Won't Be So Popular

[bobcollett 10]

Everyone knows the phrase "jobs are a lagging indicator" right? It goes both ways. U.S. Economy is weakening. Buy $GLD

 

Hi David

You will learn after a few years on TL that when you post something unscientific, people will challange you. :helloooo::helloooo:

 

I am NOT trying to knock your post. Just curious.:fight:

Why do you think the US economy is weakening? Unemployment remains at a healthy 5%?

Why buy Gold if the economy IS weakening? Inflation? Safe haven?

kind regards

bobc

[MightyMouse 12]

Subtitle = Please take PM’s lower... much lower.

 

 

 

 

As ya’ll know by now -

I call all that dollar centric, fiat bull

 

 

Ever be squeezin an already squeezed lemon? There is more..., but...

 

“...a strong, good looking trend... under the surface is becoming the weakest trend...” zdo

 

Bottom line / the point of this post

(...even though ‘charts’ do look weak ie slightly probable it really is on a “dead cat bounce” now )

I personally feel quite comfortable being on the long side of this mess...

 

in light of

> how just a tiny shift in the collective ‘narratives’ could drop this fkn PM bear dead in its tracks...and

 

in light of

> that buying PM’s at any ‘now’ is never really calling a bottom - if you can get beyond USD bull centric...

> and ...beyond ‘valuating’ it...

> beyond... (paraphasing CHSmith) A meltdown of China's phantom wealth triggers a meltdown in global phantom assets

> beyond...

> beyond...

> to ‘price insensitive’

...

Finally - energy , copper, FiaX, etc ... have been such easier / preferable shorts for me over the last n months...

and since early Nov. 15 been having big, fun time “calling tops”mm in indexes (yep thought I remembered an post about it... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-219.html#post200321)

... ie many better places to leverage dollars for returns now than short PM’s.

 

... long PM’s is a good place to be...

 

 

 

 

 

 

“We project in straight lines, when reality is cyclical. “ Harry Dent

Pretty Soon Chancellor Merkel Won't Be So Popular

Full disclosure, I was short, added 2 times and got all of it stopped out at 1076 the first time it moved back into the 1070's. Nothing more than a cost covering gain. And, I haven't bothered since. Go big or go home.

[SunTrader 10]

Going down again yesterday and today ... what a complete and utter surprise.

[bobcollett 10]

Going down again yesterday and today ... what a complete and utter surprise.

 

It was a surprise. :crap:

Chinese central bank released DEC. trade data early, which steadied the yuan and the stock market

This trade data was positive with exports far exceeding imports.

Expect Gold to go back up if this data reverses end Jan

So we have a month of bearish Gold. No wars expected this month

Bobc

 

PS

I now have two edges to trade Gold.... $ / Gold negative correlation

.....China trade / Gold negative correlation :)

[Blaiserboy 10]

]I think the Chinese government has an interest in suppressing the price as they gear up to be an active participant at the LME.

 

 

http://s20.postimg.org/zdg2hwfa5/Dave_M_0298.png' alt='Dave_M_0298.png'>

free image uploading[/img]

Edited January 13, 2016 by Blaiserboy

[bobcollett 10]

]I think the Chinese government has an interest in suppressing the price as they gear up to be an active participant at the LME.

 

 

You dont use VOLUME :(

kind regards

bobc

[Blaiserboy 10]

Cloud is Ichimoku., it gives an idea of support and resistance. I do not have the complete indicator showing, there is quite a bit to it.

 

This chart is not my trading chart, I use a similar chart for each instrument I am interested in as a way of scanning for different things.

[SunTrader 10]

It was a surprise. :crap:

Chinese central bank released DEC. trade data early, which steadied the yuan and the stock market

This trade data was positive with exports far exceeding imports.

Expect Gold to go back up if this data reverses end Jan

So we have a month of bearish Gold. No wars expected this month

Bobc

 

PS

I now have two edges to trade Gold.... $ / Gold negative correlation

.....China trade / Gold negative correlation :)

 

Hey Bob,

 

What about this?

 

Michael

[zdo 20]

re: this upswing (aka “dead cat bounce”)

been wrong before but I’m thinking it may take 2-3 weeks to put in the top on this upswing...

Anyways, that’s how I’m planning any initiating short entries to put heavy hedge back on...

Meanwhile, reactive/responsive short entries to put heavy hedge back on stops are riding below on a climbing curved line*

 

 

...

 

bad link changing the subject to AU? or BtC? considerations

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/the-rand-corporation-report-national-security-implications-of-virtual-currency-1452528204

 

 

 

 

 

 

*sorry dbp, but for trading I can fathom ‘drawing’ a straight line even less now than ever... straight lines are wetware regressions on the data of ragged reality

... precariously close - nope, over the line - to fitting into any definition of an indicator

... yet indicators are something you've spent a lot of time and energy fighting over the years )

[bobcollett 10]

Hey Bob,

 

What about this?

 

Michael

 

Hi Michael

Not quite sure why you posted the $ Rand chart?

I use it for trading marginal gold mines, not so much Gold. A marginal mine is one producing at a cost higher than the price of the commodity.

Its a fantastic correlation. A small increase in the price of Gold , and a weakening in the Rand, leads to a BIG move in a marginal Gold stock. With low risk

The problem is the Rand is heavely traded in Asia, (carry trade) which closes before South Africa opens..

So a favourable move will lead to a GAP opening,which is often the move for the day.See attached chart of Harmony Gold .... a terrrible stock, but it more than doubled since Dec. on a small rise in the Gold price. I think its listed on New York as an ADR.

Worth a look :missy:

Google" SA shares listed on NYSE" for other possibilities

kind regards

bobc

Edited January 17, 2016 by bobcollett

[bobcollett 10]

And here an interesting supporting my comments

SA gold shares may sustain bump in revenue

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

LONG 2 contracts @1091

Stop 1088

Target 1120

bobc