Gold Bullish or Bearish

[SunTrader 10]

Sunny,

 

Check to make sure you’re not confusing ‘price insensitivity’ with ‘bullishness’... Weighty distinction! ... NOT a rhetorical distinction .......

It's plain to see I am not the confused one.

 

Have you ever posted a single bearish story link? Simple yes or no will suffice. Then continue on posting distractions to distract from the ... bull or bear discussion.

[zdo 20]

Have you ever posted a single bearish story link? Simple yes or no will suffice. Then continue on posting distractions to distract from the ... bull or bear discussion.

 

Let’s let a simple yes or no suffice for you. So, just for you and you only sunny - here goes. No.

 

For everyone else - please be advised I have also not posted a single bullish link either. There is a set of lenses sunny refuses to even look for, let alone look through...

 

Also, note that he turned right around and said the ‘bull or bear discussion’ IS the distraction. Did he understand what he was saying? Did he really mean it?

[SunTrader 10]

Let’s let a simple yes or no suffice for you. So, just for you and you only sunny - here goes. No.

 

For everyone else - please be advised I have also not posted a single bullish link either. There is a set of lenses sunny refuses to even look for, let alone look through...

 

Also, note that he turned right around and said the ‘bull or bear discussion’ IS the distraction. Did he understand what he was saying? Did he really mean it?

Did I say that. No. Did you misunderstand what I said. Obviously yes.

 

So you not only are confused in what you posted but what you understand to be what others post.

 

I said after you answer you can continue posting distractions to what the topic (title gives it away) is all about.

 

I think early on you mistook this site to be Investors Laboratory or Conspiracies-R-Us Laboratory or who knows what (?) Laboratory other than what it is "Traders" Laboratory. Where umm traders talk trading. Is X going higher or lower or not much at all. Is volume behind the move. Etc etc.

 

BTW when Gold eventually turns bullish again, as all markets do at some point, I will be looking for bullish stories, bullish consensus and also confirming price action. But until then it is all much ado about nothing. Especially biased opinion pieces wah wah mommy the fix is in. Wah wah look at physical. Wah wah JP Morgan the crooks. I need my binkie.

 

Hey its the weekend again. Have a good one. :ciao:

[zdo 20]

Did I say that. No. Did you misunderstand what I said. Obviously yes.

 

So you not only are confused in what you posted but what you understand to be what others post.

 

I said after you answer you can continue posting distractions to what the topic (title gives it away) is all about.

 

I think early on you mistook this site to be Investors Laboratory or Conspiracies-R-Us Laboratory or who knows what (?) Laboratory other than what it is "Traders" Laboratory. Where umm traders talk trading. Is X going higher or lower or not much at all. Is volume behind the move. Etc etc.

 

BTW when Gold eventually turns bullish again, as all markets do at some point, I will be looking for bullish stories, bullish consensus and also confirming price action. But until then it is all much ado about nothing. Especially biased opinion pieces wah wah mommy the fix is in. Wah wah look at physical. Wah wah JP Morgan the crooks. I need my binkie.

 

 

Long answer -

Folks, adding ‘price insensitivity’ to your world is not nec. easy... It may or may not take some persistent, introspective work. And please don’t think I am encouraging you to incorporate the ‘voice of trading’s’ concepts of ‘price insensitivity’. I’m encouraging you to create your own construct of the state... to find your own marginal preferences... suited to you and you alone.

 

It’s pretty easy to stay in that bullbear ‘price sensitive’ world. Like you’re a dummy, you’ll be instructed precisely on what is to be ‘the’ obvious . You’re currently being told things are stable and the trend is in place and will remain in place until it eventually changes "as all markets do at some point" (whoa - still reeling from the sheer brilliant innovative genius of that insight?  think. ...could that be one of those ‘bulls who thinks he’s a bear’? ) Anyways, you’re being told to wait until after the trend has changed, to wait until bullish articles are being published before going to a long bias . It’s not mentioned that the majority will fail to react when order is reestablished in a sudden bullish or bearish impulsive move - but don’t worry ... you are safe and prepared because sunny will always be there for you and will protect you from anything outside the bullbear world... and if you need protection from me, turn to him... but just remember, he can’t protect you from your self...It’s up to you whether to read and reread and reread that post to plumb the depths for more of that wisdom...

To me, this is how someone talks who is reactively conflating bullishness with price insensitivity.

To me, this is a perfect example of the voice of trading and of how a ‘bull who think he’s a bear’ talks.

 

Sunny is strenuously reacting to a projected / perceived, ie made up, case of bullishness. To keep it real - Let’s switch for a moment back into ‘price sensitive’ mode. As I have posted, at this time for any spec trading, I am near equally bearish PM’s as I am bullish. Several posters have correctly noted that gold is currently ‘chaoted’ , ‘plateaud’ (or whatever tech term you might want to use). In ‘congestion’ there really are few reasons to be biased toward bull or toward bear... With the appropriate techniques, buy and sell, sell and buy, and let the cycles (or much less optimally - the breakouts) tell when to release bias/size to either the bull or bear side...

(And, fwiw, my longer time frame ’ price sensitive’ hedging is not exactly flaming bullish either - at this point, while the hedges are lifted, the sell stops are quite a ways below and are slowly being algorithmically incremented upwards )

 

My intended audience is very small. Maybe sunny can prevent any further inquiry in the tank. Hopefully... I shudder to think what might happen... if he fails...

 

that he continues to confuse my posts with bullish and that he continues to get so wound up keeps alive some interesting questions about him. Is he unconsciously a ‘bull who thinks he’s a bear’? If he did ever realize the difference and stop conflating, would he really internally hold a personal ‘price insensitivity’ that each person creates for themselves as regressive and dependent (as in “wah” and “binkie”) instead of as a liberating developmental step ? ... and etc ?.. )

 

sunny has permission to keep conflating and posting off topic... but, again, sunny really needs to be in discussions with genuine ‘price sensitive’ bulls and bears instead of being intolerant of a ‘strawbull’ he made up...

 

Sadly, he can’t find any real bulls to argue with...

 

omg! Did they already make the jump? ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short answer:

“Twist (words) not, that ye (words) be not twisted.” ript up bbl vrs

 

 

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

 

 

Now back to “price insensitive”

Notice: hypnotic price sensitivity to ‘debt’ is a way to succumb the collective.

Do you know why I put the word ‘debt’ in single quotes?

[zdo 20]

It is very “simple” to conflate ‘price insensitivity’ and ‘bullishness’

 

‘bearish’ is a bias that the price will go down relative to ‘debt’.

‘bullish’ is a bias that the price will go up relative to ‘debt’.

Both have the underlying assumption that price relative to ‘debt’ is important.

 

In ‘price insensitivity’, price relative to debt is NOT important at all.

 

TL members, you may not be ready to accommodate and add that perspective in to your life... maybe these posts will help prepare you for the shift when you need to make it. ... be advised though, at that point you will have to be willing and able to make a jump to a new internal construct, not fortify existing walls like our current ‘sunfoil’ is doing...

 

These ‘price insensitive’ posts should not be construed as critical of the ‘price sensitive’ perspective. In contrast to sunny, I’m quite open to both.

 

It also should not be assumed that this stream of ‘price insensitivity’ posts is emanating from my ‘narrative mind’. It ain’t.

 

So far I’ve seen no contextual need to be formally explicit when a post is ‘price insensitive’ or not.

But, if you need a key to i.d. them -

My ‘price sensitive’ posts are in reply to others’ trading posts.(most recent example at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-212.html#post199622 which is replying to http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-211.html#post199588 )

My ‘price insensitive’ posts are initiating... are not in reply to other posts. (they often have a “we interrupt this programing” ditty... or “we now return you to your regular programming...” or some other “off topic” type blurbs, etc.).

 

If you are still conflating all of them, try some magnesium l-threonate or something...

[SunTrader 10]

I'll keep my reply ... short.

 

Why do you post such nonsense - so I can get back to trading?

 

And leave you to do all the pontificating you want. 1 post wasn't enough. :doh:

[zdo 20]

sunny,

It would be a disservice to all those traders and paradigms you have committed to protect to click the

Ignore this user button

bummer. I feel. your pain.

 

If this was a planned narrative then you might be right about "1 post wasn't enough?"... but it's not a planned narrative...

bummer. I feel. you're pain.

[SunTrader 10]

zdo please keep posting away your nonsense. Get it out of your system.

 

I am not protecting anyone. Just keeping it real.

 

I trade. You obviously don't

[zdo 20]

sunny “Twist not, that ye be not twisted.”

Your use of the word “nonsense” tells us that my content challenges and elicits dissonance with your underlying presuppositions.... the qualities of your other posting tells us that you haven’t yet identified the underlying presuppositions sourcing this...

 

Re: “Get it out of your system” at this point it more healthy to ‘get it into my system’. However, with all your reactive vitriol, mad homo numb attacks, toxic judging it might be best to consider taking your own advice and “Get it out of your own dam system”

 

And re

you ‘re “keeping it real”?

The first word produced by the brains about something makes truly “Keeping it real” impossible.

“Nothing is as it seems” Ilya Prigogine.

 

more

you ‘re “keeping it real”?

For whom? All that posting for no one (except maybe yourself) ? All that posting “protecting” no one (except yourself) ? Maybe you are trying to hurt someone ?

“Twist not, that ye be not twisted.”

 

And Re:

“I trade. You obviously don't.”

"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." ~ Joe Granville

I do trade. I also find time to make almost one post a day in here ( on average )

 

(btw... most people do not have a clue how expensive posting can be... )

 

“Twist not, that ye be not twisted.”

Edited September 29, 2015 by zdo

[zdo 20]

What isotope of gold do you ‘trade’?

 

Au-195m 30.5 seconds

Au-194 1.6 days

Au-198 2.7 days

Au-199 3.14 days

Au-196 6.2 days

Au-195 186.1 days

Au-197 forever ... sort of

[SunTrader 10]

More twisted nonsense.

[SunTrader 10]

Here is some funnymental news for a change - from me at least.

 

(Charts and more details at the link):

 

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

 

While platinum production remains constrained, gold production continues to grow. The World Gold Council anticipates 2015 to produce a record 3088 tonnes, or 108 million ounces of gold. Like platinum, gold demand is expected to outpace new supply, as the WGC anticipates 2015 demand of around 4000 tonnes. However, unlike platinum, gold has a massive reserve of above ground supply (183,600 tonnes at the end of 2014) from which to meet this deficit.

 

Given the relative scarcity of platinum to gold, platinum should trade at a premium to gold. After all, the current above-ground stocks of platinum are only around 4 months’ worth of 2015 production, while current above-ground gold stocks are over 60 years of 2015 production. Historically, platinum has traded at a premium to gold. Recent market events, however, have inverted these prices, with gold currently trading at about a $200/oz premium to platinum. We have only seen this spread invert one other time in the last 25 years, with the gold peaking at around $225/oz over platinum in 2012.

 

Given platinum’s relative rarity to gold, I would expect these prices to eventually correct to their long-term tendency of platinum trading at a premium to gold. As such, I would recommend taking a long position in platinum futures and a short position in gold, with the anticipation that platinum futures will eventually outperform the gold. As always, remember trading futures is a risky endeavor, and this strategy is not suitable for all investors. Additionally, when placing spread trades, one must be aware of the variances between the contract specifications of different contracts and place the trades in the proper ratio to achieve the desired goals. Finally, remember that the famous saying that the “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,” and use the leverage that futures provide with great care.

[bobcollett 10]

To those of you looking at a long in Platinum, BE CAREFUL..

South Africa produces 80% of the world supply

Last year the 5 month strike saw no production.

We expected a shortfall and a rise in price.

Well, the price went down, because of huge undeclared stockpiles.

And those stockpiles have not disappeared.

We have the added Volkswagen debacle, which sees diesel vehicles in a very negative light.

Another damper for Platinum/ Palladium.

I trade platinum stocks..... SHORT.

The biggest plat stock is Angloplat.... R700 two years ago . Closed today @ R229.... down R6.83.. Barley for the race horses.

bobc

Sunny South Africa.

[zdo 20]

"... As such, I would recommend taking a long position in platinum futures and a short position in gold, with the anticipation that platinum futures will eventually outperform the gold. " Matthew Krupski

 

Thank you Krupski for this off topic supply and demand nonsense.

[SunTrader 10]

Broke recent support, now heading down and about $30 away from new multi YEAR lows.

 

For anyone who trades. All others ignore my interruption - and consider yourself ignored by me. Ya know what that means once again

[bobcollett 10]

Not so fast Suntrader

It must break 1105 with increasing volume to go short

regards bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Not so fast Suntrader

It must break 1105 with increasing volume to go short

regards bobc

Oh absolutely. I wasn't suggesting a short just yet. Just repeating my guestimate of new multi years lows coming. Note today's up day volume was nothing special.

 

Though one helluva short covering rally today. Counter trend moves are always quick and dirty. Don't know if you have it on your chart but "they left behind" a gap up that will get filled. Just a question of how soon.

 

Have a good one.

[Zed 10]

Its definitely going higher for now, also comms gold traders are lowest numbers long in quite a while

[zdo 20]

Broke recent support, now heading down and about $30 away from new multi YEAR lows.

 

 

More sheer “nonsense”.

Maybe someday suuny will realize that making ‘paper gold’ works both ways. Don’t you just love derivatives?

 

Multiyear lows ie if prices are going to / have come that close they must take those “Multiyear lows” out... ?

Your posts read more like a biased capt obvious praying it will go down more than they read like a legitimate technical assessment (or whatever type of anal isis you do) of gold.

Your posts seem increasingly automated... we sincerely hope your situation is not even more painfully neurotic than it appears...

 

Your job as a willing dupe is to silence any dissent or alternative views. DO NOT FAIL!

The paradigms your posts support are the prevailing consensus paradigms. Your 5 buttons are so predictable ... one easy way to get you posting nasty labels is to even hint at ‘systemic risks’ ... You’ve asserted you’re not trying to protect anyone, so if we take you at your word, then you are only protecting yourself *... and so why would that hint be such a threat?

 

For anyone who trades. All others ignore my interruption - and consider yourself ignored by me. Ya know what that means once again

“Twist not, that ye be not twisted...”

 

 

 

sunny wanted to be called ‘real’ ... but

Sunny is not bearish gold. He is bullish the dollar. Big difference... if you... Dare to look.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* “You are always limited by exclusively self-oriented goals.” S. Sonnon

[zdo 20]

Preface: fyi - I'm not making a ‘price insensitive’ post here! It is deeply ‘price sensitive’.

 

Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

 

While platinum production remains constrained, gold production continues to grow. The World Gold Council anticipates 2015 to produce a record 3088 tonnes, or 108 million ounces of gold. Like platinum, gold demand is expected to outpace new supply, as the WGC anticipates 2015 demand of around 4000 tonnes. However, unlike platinum, gold has a massive reserve of above ground supply (183,600 tonnes at the end of 2014) from which to meet this deficit.

 

Given the relative scarcity of platinum to gold, platinum should trade at a premium to gold. After all, the current above-ground stocks of platinum are only around 4 months’ worth of 2015 production, while current above-ground gold stocks are over 60 years of 2015 production. Historically, platinum has traded at a premium to gold. Recent market events, however, have inverted these prices, with gold currently trading at about a $200/oz premium to platinum. We have only seen this spread invert one other time in the last 25 years, with the gold peaking at around $225/oz over platinum in 2012.

 

 

 

 

Smatty krapsuni quoting Matty Krupski at Inside Futures: Relevant trading-focused information authored by key players in the futures, options and forex industries

 

TL members, Sunny acts as if a climate of “nonsense” is exposed by the mere fact sunny could even believe the alleged “nonsense” occurred. You deserve better treatment than just name calling and casting dispersions and never explaining his objections to my ‘price insensitive’ posts (and recently to even my ‘price sensitive’ posts). So, instead, I’ll show TL readers the respect of giving some insight into the presuppositions behind my calling ‘nonsense’ on this ‘voice of trading’ supply and demand bearbullcrap post.

 

Note the point here is not to impugn Krupski’s actual trade recommendation - esp. if you trade spreads and want to back out of your (imo, better long term opportunity) long silver / short gold spread... or whatever...

 

The point is to shine some light on the long running “supply and demand” psy-op / big lies proclaiming that ‘aggregate supply’ and ‘aggregate demand’ determines price. . Common Supply and demand paradigms are fabricated coordinates of financial reality born long ago.

Using the ‘newest perceived change in supply and demand’ trick as a 'cause' prop is used in 80% of talking head analysis, in more than 80% of the daily financial media publications / articles, by our best online posters, and by god knows how many traders to make up grossly oversimplifified guesses to fabricate ‘rational’ explanations to trick themselves about their trade guesses. Where TL posters are concerned, DBP ‘supply and demand’ assertions might be a better place to start this - but he’s not sticking his nose where it doesn’t belong right now... and suuny is ... and we’re all talking PM’s ...

And btw, Bobc intuitively nibbles at this collective error that depends on ‘aggregates’ instead of “schedules” when he mentioned “huge undeclared stockpiles. And those stockpiles have not disappeared.”... refreshing ...

 

False realities bloom from the intentional planting of false seeds. Story by story, paradigm by paradigm, post by post, this ‘aggregate supply and demand’ reality/delusion spreads - until it is considered unimpeachable. This is how the game (that’s gaming you) works...

But ‘informed’ analysts’ guesses at ‘aggregate’ supply (and / or ‘aggregate’ demand) as a factor in potential price change are actually a childish, stunted, and simplistic version of ”supply and demand”

 

For more (- thankfully with a focus on gold -) see links below

(fyi both links go to the same content... only difference is format / ease of reading... click in to both... then click out of the one that’s least readable to you... hth)

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/01/robert-blumen/misunderstanding-gold-demand/

Misunderstanding Gold Demand |

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And ...If you don’t want to acknowledge the “nonsense” - then don’t click. Intended audience is VERY small...

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

... btw, the article reveals paradoxes - that can only be resolved via a handle on ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘price insensitivity’ 

[zdo 20]

We now interrupt nothing with less nothing.

 

The Decline and Fall of Silver Backwardation | Keith Weiner | Safehaven.com

https://monetary-metals.com/introduction-to-the-monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report/

 

We now return you to your regularly scheduled nothing

[bobcollett 10]

The Gold price is inversely proportional to the US $

The $ is falling .

The Gold price is rising.

Why is the $ falling.?????

How far will it fall?

regards

bobc

[zdo 20]

Why is the $ falling.?????

How far will it fall?

 

 

re: "Why"

in this weird global race to the bottom, their only perceived option may be 'helicopter money'

 

my related question -

Is the USD "falling" or just 'correcting' ?

[MightyMouse 12]

We now interrupt nothing with less nothing.

 

The Decline and Fall of Silver Backwardation | Keith Weiner | Safehaven.com

https://monetary-metals.com/introduction-to-the-monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report/

 

We now return you to your regularly scheduled nothing

 

Excellent Narration! Best described as fractional, but that's just because.

[zdo 20]

GOLD IS NOT MONEY

...Which brings me to a critical point: Before you can logically argue whether something is or isn’t money, you must first have a definition of money. And since we are dealing with something that affects everyone, the definition must be practical and easily understood.

The only practical definition of money is: the general medium of exchange or a very commonly used means of payment within an economy. By this definition, gold is not money in any developed economy today. By this definition, the US$ is money in the US, the euro is money in the euro-zone, the Yen is money in Japan, the Australian dollar is money in Australia, etc. ...

Gold Is Not Money « TSI Blog

Gold Is Not Money, Part 2 « TSI Blog

 

 

GOLD IS MONEY

Gold and silver are money because, unlike all other commodities, people accumulate them without limit. Virtually all of the gold ever mined in human history is still in human hands. The “stocks to flows” ratio (inventories divided by annual production) for gold is 80 years. For silver it is also measured in decades.

For other commodities, it is measured in months.

Think about this. It means that there is no such thing as a “glut” in gold or silver. If the wheat harvest comes in a few percent higher than expected, the price can crash. If oil consumption rises a little, the price can spike. But in the case of gold and silver, the value has nothing to do with either mine production or jewelry or electronics consumption.

Stability is exactly what we want and expect from money. The prices of gold and silver, as expressed in dollars, are unstable, not because of gold and silver, but because of the dollar itself.

This means that you cannot analyze the fundamentals of gold and silver with conventional techniques. It is not possible to predict changes in the prices by looking at “supply” (i.e. mining and recycling) and “demand” (i.e. jewelry and electronics). All of those huge inventories are potential “supply”, at the right price. Everyone on the planet is potential “demand”, at the right price.

...

https://monetary-metals.com/introduction-to-the-monetary-metals-supply-and-demand-report/

 

GOLD IS / IS NOT MONEY

This is an oscillating polarity. Some hiss when I say a person can oscillate between the extremes in the ‘space’ of one morning - but I did it in the 80’s myself and from the insights gained through awareness of it I’ve been able to observe it occurring multiple times unconsciously in other traders while they were in trades. More typical is an oscillation that takes years to move from one pole to the other... “gradually then suddenly” (Hemingway) ... maybe leading the crowd by a little... maybe lagging the crowd by a little... but either way sticking pretty close to the ‘media's dominant’ crowd...

and whether on fast cycling or slow cycling ocsillation, being (unconsciously) trapped in this polarity will inevitably cloud your 'analysis' capacity of PM's ...

 

Gold is money -----------------------|--------------------------- Gold is not money

See the pipe.

That can be you.

YOU can be the mediating pole btwn those two polarities.

ie fck / get beyond all the collective memes about it.

 

If gold is money to you, then gold IS money.

If gold is not money to you, then gold IS NOT money.

 

... and btw - Yes! Gold can be money and not money (and beyond) to you without you needing to ‘fashion or follow a narrative’ if you ...

 

Have a great weekend