Gold Bullish or Bearish

[SunTrader 10]

Sunny,

Hey - it got you posting ... 

...

Ya’ll have a great weekend.

Why so many words to say so little?

 

I'll stick to trading Gold and Silver - using one or the other (naturally they alternate) as an indicator. And keeping my posts as I like to read others - brief.

 

And yes have a great weekend as well and Bob too.

[MightyMouse 12]

 

MM

In posts, it is more important to get the analysis right.

In trades, it is more important to get the direction right.

I would love to give you a thousand goofy emoties with that but out of respect will give you just one.

:missy:

 

 

 

 

Zdo,

 

A. This is a trading site.

 

B. Fundamentally speaking, my current guestimate is that US debt is worth about 75% to 80% of its current traded, and stated.value and it continues to shrink. US Debt and anything valued in USD will take a hit. I have no guess on how long the charade will continue.

 

C Thanks for the emoticon respect. I appreciate it.

[zdo 20]

To help the noobs can get at the issues being ‘discussed’ here ( ie to help parse them out from all the personal shit that’s being slung in reaction to peeps getting evoked )

 

> re: gold as a trading instrument. Among the ‘commodities’ across time, I have found gold to be just a so-so instrument to trade... except when it is ‘public consensus’ hot... (to research this, check range/volatility based ratings of futures instruments across last 20 - 30 years ... gold is so - so. For easy research, John Sweeney’s monthly instrument ratings across the last 30 years or so correlates very well with range/volatility based ratings mentioned above...)

 

>re: one leading the other. ... when gold is hot, typically all the PM’s are hot. And when they are hot, silver historically tends to make larger percentage price changes. Example: from near simultaneous peaks, in last few years gold is off less than 50%, silver off close to 75% ... (BobC and/or Sunny may be willing to teach you how to alternate charts on these two... but only a few of the students completing the study would be able to apply such techniques effectively across time.)

 

> re: the gold: silver ratio. This ratio is typically used for long time frame trades. (Sunny may be able to use it for short term calls, but he’s one in a hundred. Maybe he can teach you how to do it with shorter holding periods. Good luck.)

 

> re: gold is only a commodity vs gold is money. My posts have not been about which it is, or when it is which , or ...

My point is simply this - more traders than not will have unconscious difficulty with the ‘quasi’ nature of the PM’s, get mixed up in the wrong ‘crowd’, and not realize it until it is too late. Having watched many 'gold' traders deal with this (across nearly thirty years now) , I can confidently say no amount of technical acumen will compensate when this polarity is internally operational in a trader...

... my recent heyoka-like 'bulls who think they are bears' posts explore an aspect of this... after all

A. This is a trading site.

[zdo 20]

Zdo,

 

A. This is a trading site.

 

B. Fundamentally speaking, my current guestimate is that US debt is worth about 75% to 80% of its current traded, and stated.value and it continues to shrink. US Debt and anything valued in USD will take a hit. I have no guess on how long the charade will continue.

 

C Thanks for the emoticon respect. I appreciate it.

 

A. Really?! I thought it was a trading laboratory.

 

B. thx... Of Two Minds - Will the Fed Have to Save Emerging Markets with QE4?

 

C

[MightyMouse 12]

A. Really?! I thought it was a trading laboratory.

 

B. thx... Of Two Minds - Will the Fed Have to Save Emerging Markets with QE4?

 

C

 

Good article. The more they do, the more of a mess they get us into. But, it does lead to extraordinary opportunities in the markets for those who are patient and watching.

[barako 10]

guy any pointers on where gold and silver is heading for this month?

[bobcollett 10]

guy any pointers on where gold and silver is heading for this month?

 

Hi barako

Sideways.....:missy:

Everything in life needs a catalyst, something to make things happen.And its all quiet until the next FED meeting.

The biggest catalyst in the world is when your girlfriend says "I'm pregnant" That sure makes thing happen. And the first response is some tests..:rofl::rofl:

So Gold needs to test the LOW .

Kind regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

We have a catalyst

China announced "strengthen fiscal policy, boost infrastructure, and speed up tax reforms "

Thats good for the S & P , GOOD for the $ ,and BAD for Gold....

SELL

bobc

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi barako

Sideways.....:missy:

Everything in life needs a catalyst, something to make things happen.And its all quiet until the next FED meeting.

The biggest catalyst in the world is when your girlfriend says "I'm pregnant" That sure makes thing happen. And the first response is some tests..:rofl::rofl:

So Gold needs to test the LOW .

Kind regards

bobc

 

The biggest catalyst is when you wife finds out your girlfriend is pregnant.

[bobcollett 10]

The biggest catalyst is when you wife finds out your girlfriend is pregnant.

 

LOL:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

bobc

[MightyMouse 12]

guy any pointers on where gold and silver is heading for this month?

 

Gold is stuck within the range set in July: 1175- 1072 ( october gold) which is a pretty big range. If you wanted to be short, you can get short at any time, depending on your entry strategy, but expect to be whipsawed a bit and consider adding to your short if it drops below the 1072 price level. I would stop seeking short entry if price rises above 1175.

 

No longs for me and I have no idea where price will be by the end of the month.

[zdo 20]

re "... month..." and

 

"SELL" and

"No longs for me" and

... etc. etc

 

I'm progressively shifting from short bias ... ie by early October and for the next + 5 months, I will be as equally comfortable taking long setups and triggers as taking short setups and triggers in any PM trades I might do. After that, the 'bias' will go out of balance again ... jmo

[zdo 20]

This is very very barish

 

Anyone Who Believes The Comex Numbers Is Very Naive | Investment Research Dynamics

 

 

you are here

"Market Analysis Forum dedicated to fundamental outlook, intermarket analysis, and macro & micro analysis."

 

Put simply, many investors, and even some policy makers at the Federal Reserve, are under the delusion that paper market capitalization represents real wealth to the economy as a whole. The truth is that the wealth is in the productive assets of the economy and the long-term stream of cash flows they generate. Price fluctuations can certainly affect the distribution of wealth. Those who repeatedly buy stocks from others at depressed prices, and sell them to others at elevated prices, will accumulate the purchasing power of others. Those who repeatedly do the opposite will surrender their purchasing power to others. But the aggregate wealth of the economy as a whole is unaffected by those price fluctuations.

Hussman

 

119

Edited September 11, 2015 by zdo
119

[SunTrader 10]

Anyone who loses sleep over the Comex (an institution that has been around for 135 years), numbers is naive.

 

New lower lows ahead, including new multi year lows. Which if I am right is bearish "any way you slice it".

[MightyMouse 12]

This is very very barish

 

"Anyone Who Believes The Comex Numbers Is Very Naive"

 

 

If the perma bulls ever get replaced by perma bears, you will get your $5000 or $10,000 gold. But, for now, there is more reason to be a permabull.

 

As long as the mainstream sucker keeps buying, gold will go lower and lower and lower. No idea whatsoever on the timing nor the depth, but pretty confident of the direction until the aforementioned.

 

If one needs to ask, a sucker buys low with hopes of selling high but sells lower instead.

[zdo 20]

Anyone who loses sleep over the Comex (an institution that has been around for 135 years), numbers is naive.

 

Anyone who loses sleep over anything is naive.

Here’s hoping all our insomnias start near sunrise each the morning...

 

( inserting some heavy :sarc: here ) Anyone who ‘loses sleep’ over Comex numbers or GATA numbers or goldbank holdings numbers or any ‘report’ numbers is naïvely focused on physical PM’s... and as you have helped imply in so many ways over and over and over in here, paper gold is much more important than the ‘underlying’. Those premiums for the underlying mean nothing ever... backwardation, etc. are totally irrev... and they should never be mentioned or discussed - especially in a “Market Analysis Forum dedicated to fundamental outlook, intermarket analysis, and macro & micro analysis”. It is better to obfuscate by encouraging us to reify the venerable comex, etc... and discourage anyone from questioning toryland... or seek more truth.

 

The 135 year old comex lies are just a tiny sample example of an on-going paper scam - which your posts reassure readers to believe in the stability of and to stay invested in (thx sunny) ... my posts encourage them to question and to test their own personal self hypnosis (thx zdo)

 

Re

New lower lows ahead, including new multi year lows. Which if I am right is bearish "any way you slice it".

You just said “$300” oz !!!!!

that is very very barish indeed

(...more accurate phrasing might have been “Which if I am right is fiat bullish "any way you slice it".” )

 

Folks, Imagine, if you will, a scenario where fiat and PM’s simultaneously decline against __________ ...

[zdo 20]

If the perma bulls ever get replaced by perma bears, you will get your $5000 or $10,000 gold. But, for now, there is more reason to be a permabull.

 

As long as the mainstream sucker keeps buying, gold will go lower and lower and lower. No idea whatsoever on the timing nor the depth, but pretty confident of the direction until the aforementioned.

 

If one needs to ask, a sucker buys low with hopes of selling high but sells lower instead.

 

MM, in terms of the ‘campaign’, I can understand emphasizing the “mainstream sucker permabulls”. But in the big picture - especially seeing how costless it is for them to (over) supply permabulls with paper - basing analysis on these mainstream suckers may be as specious as basing analysis on comex numbers - (which sunny said (and thought?) I was doing)...

 

In crude, producers are pumping like crazy to make up the revenue lost from the ‘bear’ market in energy.

In PM production, are miners doing the same?

 

Now for something completely off topic... saw an ad for a movie (coming to a theater near you) last night called “The Martian”. even if it turns out to be a superlative movie it still has no chance of ever matching the book. Quick recommendation guys -- Read this amazing book ( and do it before seeing the movie )

[MightyMouse 12]

MM, in terms of the ‘campaign’, I can understand emphasizing the “mainstream sucker permabulls”. But in the big picture - especially seeing how costless it is for them to (over) supply permabulls with paper - basing analysis on these mainstream suckers may be as specious as basing analysis on comex numbers - (which sunny said (and thought?) I was doing)...

 

Maybe. For me rule 1 is: a market goes up until the last sucker bought and a market goes down until the last sucker sold.

 

.

In PM production, are miners doing the same?

 

I do not know, but partly from intuition and partly because you are asking, I would say no.

 

I would also say that oil or PM need not go down just because supply is increasing, given market dynamics. And, as price goes down there is less and less incentive to explore for more supply. Since these numbers are government controlled, they are bullshit anyway, used as political tools when it is convenient and a texas republican is in the whitehouse.

 

I thin you should change your name from "ZDO" to "The ZDO". You have earned the solitary distinction.

Edited September 16, 2015 by MightyMouse

[zdo 20]

Maybe. For me rule 1 is: a market goes up until the last sucker bought and a market goes down until the last sucker sold.

 

Omg ... and I thought I was jaded.

Have you ever been the last sucker?

Me? Nope  ... but :haha: I have been next to the last and/or one of the last transactions on several memorable and painful occasions across the years.

 

 

re: have gold miners upped production to offset lower prices?

I do not know, but partly from intuition and partly because you are asking, I would say no.

 

 

In established, producing mines, actually ‘they’ have ramped up extraction same as oil producers have - particularly the domestic chinese operations. In exploration and development ‘they’ have not... because they would have to pile on debt and they don’t... they would have to put too much of their claims up as collateral to get decent financing ( which was not the case to finance oil exploration - at least until recently.)

Unsustainable production will finally collapse and that will set up the “nobody saw this coming“ ramp in the price of both.

 

 

I would also say that oil or PM need not go down just because supply is increasing, given market dynamics.

Agreed. (fwiw, I just recently started a ~16 month long (almost pure) scale trade in long crude) The intent of the question was to explore the vast differences btwn the ‘supply’ of PM’s and the supply of most other instruments. When almost anyone purchases petrol now, they expect petrol. When almost anyone purchases PM’s now, they are willing to settle for a chit. The psy-op that chit supply can be cofangled with real supply is dying a ‘slow and sudden’ death. Consensus belief is that death is not eminent so the “suckers” are still selling. But, contrary to the meme, it doesn’t take everyone to shift to demand physicals delivered when they buy PM’s. It only takes a rather small decrease in the percentage of ‘believers’ for the whole house of cards to come down.

 

... Since these numbers are government controlled, they are bullshit anyway, used as political tools when it is convenient and a texas republican is in the whitehouse.

“The central illusion of this era is that the Status Quo can be reformed or saved” CHSmith

... PM’s are not a good investment. Heck PM’s are not really an investment at all.

... and PM’s are only occasionally good trading instruments

... but PM’s are always an excellent store of value to hedge against political/collective insanity... and even the convenient parade of lies and now ‘permanent emergency’ reports put out by the latest half black repubicrat from texas are not rosy enough to dispel a pretty ugly diagnosis/trend --- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-16/obamas-recovery-just-9-charts

...in trading talk It doesn’t take much to spread an analogy too thin... or to misuse generalities and or specifics... or start bouncing from strawman to strawman... just ask zdo

 

 

I thin you should change your name from "ZDO" to "The ZDO". You have earned the solitary distinction.

 

I need less conceit, not more... a big ego is not the equivalent of a strong ego... better I humble myself... and remember I never know this time how many hubris clicks I’m away from being the ‘last sucker’ again... and re:

“earned the solitary distinction” ?? 2197 posts and maybe 30 of them are quality posts... and even that may be a stretch (esp. if you were to ask sunny disposition.) You’d have to make a stronger case than that 

lcase zdo will have to do. I just wish I knew what the ‘o’ stands for...

 

We never know or have whole truth. We can only get closer to it (or farther away from it) -- provided we are seeking it at all...

 

Do you feel Yellen's pain? I don't

[MightyMouse 12]

Omg ... and I thought I was jaded.

Have you ever been the last sucker?

Me? Nope  ... but :haha: I have been next to the last and/or one of the last transactions on several memorable and painful occasions across the years.

 

 

 

Yes, I have been either the last or very close to the last sucker on a few occasions, but that was long ago.

 

I have also been caught in a few squeezes which are a horror to experience. Most notably, I was short ICOS when they announced results of final stage testing of Cialis. Later bought by eli lilly.

 

More recently, there were "days" where I felt like I was the only sucker.

[zdo 20]

I wish this was ‘interrupting’ good posts - but it’s not...

WHY ARE PREMIUMS FOR PHYSICAL SILVER 25% OVER SPOT? « The Burning Platform

[SunTrader 10]

You are so transparent.

 

Except when seen from above - tin foil blocks a clear read. :rofl:

[zdo 20]

o wth ... an addition :rofl:

The Rutherford Institute :: The Crisis of the Now: Distracted and Diverted from the Ever-Encroaching Police State

 

dear translucent,

 

thank you.

 

transparent is cleared.

not transparent is traumatized...

 

wish you were here,

( in a SILVER hat with us...)

 

zdo

[SunTrader 10]

I didn't say I wasn't also transparent.

 

I have been transparent - in the opposite bearish ( by most people's definition) mode - for years.

 

And have made no effort to obscure it at all.

[zdo 20]

I have been transparent - in the opposite bearish ( by most people's definition) mode - for years

 

Sunny,

 

Check to make sure you’re not confusing ‘price insensitivity’ with ‘bullishness’... Weighty distinction! ... NOT a rhetorical distinction!

You need to be in discussions with genuine bulls instead of being intolerant of a ‘strawbull’ made up.

But - where are these bulls? Quite sincerely (and like I’ve said several times now) -

I wish my initiating posts were ‘interrupting’ a lively discourse about gold... that they were just distractions to distract from THE distraction :rofl:

 

All the best

 

zdo