Gold Bullish or Bearish

[phantom 16]

it all depends on how you draw the lines....

 

It all depends on where the market goes...

Edited May 7, 2014 by phantom

[Patuca 13]

It all depends on where the market goes...

True LOL....but lines depict for visual purposes where the market appears to be going but alas one person see a line here or there and another sees a line there or here...so one see a trend...the other a range...ones see support..the other resistance...one sees a triangle..the other a wedge...one is bullish...the other bearish...

 

You are bearish...i am bullish. Time will tell the tale...gann might have been right???

[Ammeo 10]

Upward resistances: 1315.60 / 1331.20 / 1342.50

Downward supports: 1307 / 1299.50 / 1277.60

 

Look out for these levels in coming week..

[kuokam 10]

"Anything I have ever done that ultimately was worthwhile, initially scared me to death".

 

Betty Bender

 

Any trade...

[Ammeo 10]

Upward resistances: 1315.60 / 1331.20 / 1342.50

Downward supports: 1307 / 1299.50 / 1277.60

 

Look out for these levels in coming week..

 

Btw Goldman think the targets are 1100 , but Ukraine and safehaven could bump it in the short term, Chinese & India demand are cyclically down and the dollar might stage a come back in the long term... All bearish fundies, I'll have a look at the break 1277 area of interrest.

[phantom 16]

... one person see a line here or there and another sees a line there or here...so one see a trend...the other a range...

 

which is exactly why I use moving averages more than lines...the monthly gold chart clearly shows a downward bias for the last 20 months or so...

 

you can fight the truth all you want, but that doesn't change the truth...

 

just sayin'...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

[SunTrader 10]

I'm not Bullish.

 

I'm not Bearish.

 

I'm price-ish!

[Patuca 13]

which is exactly why I use moving averages more than lines...the monthly gold chart clearly shows a downward bias for the last 20 months or so...

 

you can fight the truth all you want, but that doesn't change the truth...

 

just sayin'...

 

 

Luv,

Phantom

yes, you are correct. It has shown a downward bias for many months and all that can be clearly seen via ma's. nevertheless it is bullish. At the moment it is forming a range. It will break out of that range in one direction or the other. Odds favour a resumption of bullish move. For investment purpose gold is bullish. For trading purposes it can be traded both long and short many times over.

 

As concerns ma's. An 89 period Ma shows the long term trend to be intact. Generally it is best to be long when price is above an 89 period sma. Short when below.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

I'm not Bullish.

 

I'm not Bearish.

 

I'm price-ish!

Sounds good! On a daily chart what position would you take on gold?

[phantom 16]

yes, you are correct. It has shown a downward bias for many months and all that can be clearly seen via ma's. nevertheless it is bullish...

 

An 89 period Ma shows the long term trend to be intact. Generally it is best to be long when price is above an 89 period sma. Short when below.

 

Yes, it is above your 89 period ma...but you'd have to have very, very deep pockets to trade gold the way you pose it...

 

gold is "bullish" when the market is rising, imho, not when prices are dropping against some LT moving avg...

 

and I don't write this to argue with you... I write this for the traders out there who actually want to make money trading...

[Patuca 13]

Yes, it is above your 89 period ma...but you'd have to have very, very deep pockets to trade gold the way you pose it...

 

gold is "bullish" when the market is rising, imho, not when prices are dropping against some LT moving avg...

 

and I don't write this to argue with you... I write this for the traders out there who actually want to make money trading...

like i said trading is one thing investing another. Trading gold on long side is favorable now from a monthly time frame. It also is favorable for the short side. Depends on where it is at in the range. But as long as it is above the 89 sma the long side has slightly better probabilities regardless of a 20 period ema showing a downtrend.

 

Gold is bullish for taking intermediate long positions and bullish for investment purposes on a monthly chart. Now if daytrading it or intraday trading that is different. I am referring to price action here on a monthly chart. The 89 sma shows the intermediate to longer term trend and that is STILL bullish. Thats all.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Patuca

[SunTrader 10]

Sounds good! On a daily chart what position would you take on gold?

You ask this but then say to someone else price is above a 89 sma on monthly chart so market is bullish.

 

Why should that matter?

 

If that isn't good enough move out to a quarterly, or a yearly or a decade and then you could always make the sma longer ... and longer again. :doh:

 

BTW also why 89 anyway, on a monthly basis this equates to 7.42 years.

 

89 on a daily chart it at least equates to around 1/3 of a year.

 

Nonetheless maybe the attached chart might make clear what the actual present, tradable trend is. Note I only use RSI indicator to help identify trend. In uptrend RSI should stay above 40, in downtrend RSI should stay below 60.

[Ammeo 10]

Gold May Hold In Sideways Trading Pattern Next Week

There was no majority opinion toward the direction of gold prices for next week in the Kitco News Gold Survey, but a nominal number of participants said they expect gold to hold in the current trading range between roughly $1,280 and $1,315 an ounce.

 

Out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those, 11 see prices trading sideways or are neutral, while eight see prices down and six see prices higher. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants looked for prices to fall this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex gold for June delivery was up $6 for the week.

 

Since about late March, gold prices have largely held in that trading range, and with little economic news slated for next week, and tensions between Ukraine and Russia not dominating headlines at the moment, several survey participants said they see no reason for the market to move out of the current range.

 

Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, said the market is stuck between the 100-day moving average, which comes in for the Comex June contract at $1,290, and 200-day moving averages, which comes in at $1,300.90.

 

“Right now this is a pocket-picking trade. People say there are up trends and down trends, but there are also sideways trends and that’s where we are. Eventually we’ll break out of it, but it’s impossible to figure out how, so you have to reduce exposure. The only thing supporting this is the Ukraine, but it’s not going higher on the Ukraine,” he said.

 

Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, said gold “is forming a wedge or triangle and as the trading range contracts and the longer it goes sideways the greater the breakout or breakdown should be… Who knows what the catalyst will be as there is enough conflicting news to confuse us all, or at least me. I see an upside breakout to around $1,360 and downside around $1,220. I am neutral until this market makes a decisive move.”

 

Those who see higher prices said gold may benefit from the recent tumble in U.S. Treasury yields. Earlier this week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 2.5%, despite an uptick in certain inflation gauges.

 

The “bond market (is) suggesting something (is) askew, and suggesting flight to safety,” said Jim Wyckoff, Kitco’s technical analyst.

 

Those who see lower prices said gold’s recent trading action may portend at least a move down to test the current trading range support levels.

[Patuca 13]

Gold May Hold In Sideways Trading Pattern Next Week

There was no majority opinion toward the direction of gold prices for next week in the Kitco News Gold Survey, but a nominal number of participants said they expect gold to hold in the current trading range between roughly $1,280 and $1,315 an ounce.

 

Out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those, 11 see prices trading sideways or are neutral, while eight see prices down and six see prices higher. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants looked for prices to fall this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex gold for June delivery was up $6 for the week.

 

Since about late March, gold prices have largely held in that trading range, and with little economic news slated for next week, and tensions between Ukraine and Russia not dominating headlines at the moment, several survey participants said they see no reason for the market to move out of the current range.

 

Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, said the market is stuck between the 100-day moving average, which comes in for the Comex June contract at $1,290, and 200-day moving averages, which comes in at $1,300.90.

 

“Right now this is a pocket-picking trade. People say there are up trends and down trends, but there are also sideways trends and that’s where we are. Eventually we’ll break out of it, but it’s impossible to figure out how, so you have to reduce exposure. The only thing supporting this is the Ukraine, but it’s not going higher on the Ukraine,” he said.

 

Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, said gold “is forming a wedge or triangle and as the trading range contracts and the longer it goes sideways the greater the breakout or breakdown should be… Who knows what the catalyst will be as there is enough conflicting news to confuse us all, or at least me. I see an upside breakout to around $1,360 and downside around $1,220. I am neutral until this market makes a decisive move.”

 

Those who see higher prices said gold may benefit from the recent tumble in U.S. Treasury yields. Earlier this week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 2.5%, despite an uptick in certain inflation gauges.

 

The “bond market (is) suggesting something (is) askew, and suggesting flight to safety,” said Jim Wyckoff, Kitco’s technical analyst.

 

Those who see lower prices said gold’s recent trading action may portend at least a move down to test the current trading range support levels.

yep..me thinks i should trade the trade the range... short at top.... long at bottom. right now, odds, very slightly, favour an upside breakout when a breakout does happen but at this moment bull and bear pressures are about equal.

[Ammeo 10]

yep..me thinks i should trade the trade the range... short at top.... long at bottom. right now, odds, very slightly, favour an upside breakout when a breakout does happen but at this moment bull and bear pressures are about equal.

 

I would say it is a support around 1275. The question is will it hold now when the us dollar is getting stronger.

Has it ever happened that the gold and the us dollar increase at the same time?

Not for long i would say.

[SunTrader 10]

More buying was present at 1275 level on May 2nd than next swing low May 12th so it could weaken next time price hits it a 3rd time???

 

But support I see starts at 1285 (1284.55) and resistance at 1308 (1307.61) :

[Ammeo 10]

New Government in India of the BJP party seem to start their work on the bullion and jewellery industry of India. Import restriction were eased and now private companies are being allowed to import gold while they were restricted before. Due to this i believe that their will be more gold been imported and purchased by Indian which might help gold to cross the resistance level of 1308 and 1330s.

[Ammeo 10]

Survey Participants Split On Views For Gold Price Direction Next Week

The Kitco News Gold Survey shows another week of split opinions between members forecasting prices for next week, with participants only nominally bullish, and barely that.

 

Out of 33 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, nine see prices higher, seven see prices down and six see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

 

Last week, survey participants looked for prices to fall this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex gold for June delivery was down about $1 for the week.

[SunTrader 10]

.. seven see prices down ...

 

Looks like they were the only ones with their thinking caps on.

[Ammeo 10]

Gold Set for Monthly Drop as U.S. to Ukraine Curbs Haven Demand

Gold traded near a 16-week low and headed for a monthly loss as signs of an improving U.S. economy and easing of tension in Ukraine curbed demand for a haven. Palladium was set for a fourth monthly advance.

 

Bullion is set for a 2.8 percent monthly drop after data showed this week U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April and global equities reached the highest since 2007. Gold’s drop yesterday sent the metal’s 14-day relative-strength index below the level of 30 that suggests a potential impending rebound to some analysts who study technical charts.

 

Russia has pulled back most of its troops from the border with Ukraine, according to a U.S. defense official, a move that if completed would fulfill a pledge by Russian President Vladimir Putin. A recent surge in fighting produced a new round of finger-pointing between the U.S. and Russia, the top supplier of palladium. That metal climbed to the highest since August 2011 this week as a mine strike in South Africa continued.

 

“Risk appetite has been improving,” said Sarah Xie, an analyst at Hong Kong-based Wing Fung Financial Group Ltd. “Investors are transferring their capital from gold to the stock market. Turmoil in Ukraine has eased.”

[Ammeo 10]

Seems that Gold could not break $1260 by falling back to near $1250 zone. This time, the fall is likely to be more fierce with the yellow metal being expected to test $1240-35 horizontal zone and then towards testing another strong horizontal support near $1220-10 area.

[SunTrader 10]

I wouldn't call a $20 or even a $40 drop fierce.

 

$50 or $100 is more like fierce price movement.

 

And if then price gets down to previous double bottom at $1180 something very fierce might happen.

[Ammeo 10]

BCE will cut interest rates...so EUR will be weaker and USD stronger...accordingly GOLD will go down.

[SunTrader 10]

Sometimes the obvious happens. Mostly not.

[Patuca 13]

Gold remains bullish. It has been bullish for years.