Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Ammeo 10]

This is probably one of the worst times of the year to trade Gold.

 

The price has been moving sideways to down - mid term -

 

Also many will be away, volume thins and volatility picks up.

 

Also things don't always make sense right now. Fundamentals and techs are skewed.

 

And news as we can see doesn't always have the desired reaction or usual reaction.

 

Long term seems bearish bt short term cant say anything.

[Ammeo 10]

I am just watching some key levels, like 1.63 and 1.64 (the 100 and 200 Moving average of hourly chart), and downside support maybe at 1.60 which is the 100 Moving average of daily chart. I also keep a eye on BOE rate hike talking, you know...

[Ammeo 10]

Gold has been acting strange since yesterday US session, and since now is saturday I think it is not wise to make an entry. PS: recent ressistance around 1199 looks rather weak, I would not enter short on retest. I think above 1208 should be reached today, but it could be after new low.

[Ammeo 10]

BTW for anyone who is interested, if you read/listen to those on kingworldnews (massively bias gold/silver bulls) they often refer to the COT report (Commitment of traders). The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC.

 

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/

 

It is interesting to see the change in COT from the highs in 2011 to now, but it is also fascinating that commercials are no longer adding heaving amounts of shorts, but rather longs in the past couple of months, and the large speculators are reducing there exposure to the short side also.

 

Anyway food for thought its an interesting data set that can give you an idea of where the market sentiment is sitting.

[Ammeo 10]

Forecast is range bound - 1350 has to go to complete 1400 and 1420 to 1550

 

downside, risk is all below 1187 as of now, 1200 has to go with 1210 first also 1190 in the immediate sense.

 

Ten year UTL Looks strong.

[MightyMouse 12]

It's a pump and dump. In a pump and dump the perception is that there is too much demand to go lower, so the gold market will go higher to deal with the perceived demand. Demand can be weak shorts who are not committed to the downside and will cover quickly with a small gain or loss, providing favorable entry to other more committed shorts. And/Or, it could be weak longs trying to catch a bottom, but who will also sell against their own position by scaling out as the gold market moves higher. Weak Longs have stops at breakeven and or just below the lows. The stops will eventually provide liquidity for highly capitalized, committed shorts.

 

A description of weak only pertains to the traders commitment to a particular direction, and not his ability to trade. It is possible to be a good trader who is a weak long or short. Conversely, it is possible to be a bad trader who is very committed to a direction.

[SunTrader 10]

Or a trader that just needs to be committed.

 

Pink pill or blue one today?

[Ammeo 10]

Or a trader that just needs to be committed.

 

Pink pill or blue one today?

 

i forgot which pill did what...

[kuokam 10]

Happy 2014 all!

Any explanation of yesterday's monster move ?

[SunTrader 10]

Happy 2014 all!

Any explanation of yesterday's monster move ?

Huh?

 

Monster move. Where? Not in Gold.

 

A monster move in Gold would be $50 or more up or down.

 

Anyway did you notice where it closed, just about where it opened. So the monster is back in its cage.

[kuokam 10]

When did you have the last $50 move ?

 

 

Huh?

 

Monster move. Where? Not in Gold.

 

A monster move in Gold would be $50 or more up or down.

 

Anyway did you notice where it closed, just about where it opened. So the monster is back in its cage.

[SunTrader 10]

When did you have the last $50 move ?

Me? I have two left feet.

 

But Gold had one on Oct 1st $55.05 to be exact.

 

Here the blue Paintbars (15) mark all the $50 or greater moves that happened in the last year or so:

[kuokam 10]

Nobody cares you having 1000 feet. See, I talk of Gold futures and you show me the gold/dollar.

 

 

 

Me? I have two left feet.

 

But Gold had one on Oct 1st $55.05 to be exact.

 

Here the blue Paintbars (15) mark all the $50 or greater moves that happened in the last year or so:

[SunTrader 10]

I talk of Gold futures .......

You did this time.

 

I have that chart too but you can look it up yourself.

 

Shouldn't be too hard for a lazy azz who wants to be spoon feed.

[kuokam 10]

You certainly will never be able to feed your own useless self, let alone a person who is waiting for no good from you.

 

 

You did this time.

 

I have that chart too but you can look it up yourself.

 

Shouldn't be too hard for a lazy azz who wants to be spoon feed.

[bobcollett 10]

You did this time.

 

I have that chart too but you can look it up yourself.

 

Shouldn't be too hard for a lazy azz who wants to be spoon feed.

 

Hi SunTrader

Please post your Futures chart.

I would like to see if a big Futures move was followed by a big spot price move.

Can you overlay them?

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

Happy 2014 all!

Any explanation of yesterday's monster move ?

 

Hi kuokam

Go back for 10years .

Early January.

What did Gold Futures do at the beginning of each year ?

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Hi SunTrader

Please post your Futures chart.

I would like to see if a big Futures move was followed by a big spot price move.

Can you overlay them?

regards

bobc

I can overlay them in same graph but they mash together (small price difference for the scaling) unless you want just a line on close chart.

 

Or a OHLC but one underneath the other.

 

Which?

[bobcollett 10]

I can overlay them in same graph but they mash together (small price difference for the scaling) unless you want just a line on close chart.

 

Or a OHLC but one underneath the other.

 

Which?

 

A line on close should work

Thanks

boc

[SunTrader 10]

Ok here is a daily and a 5 minute of March futures contract (Green) and spot cash (Red):

[bobcollett 10]

Ok here is a daily and a 5 minute of March futures contract (Green) and spot cash (Red):

 

Hi Sun Trader,

That was fast :)

There is no difference, or very little .

There is no edge trading a future or the Spot....... except the cost.

 

I would welcome some comment on this statement.

 

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

There is no difference, or very little .

There is no edge trading a future or the Spot....... except the cost.

Yeah. Only for a trader in the pits. But not too many of them nowadays.

 

I laugh when I see a post on TradeStation's forum asking how to code this or that idea for a 2 or a 5 or a 10 second chart.

 

:doh:

[kuokam 10]

Enough of smoky ramblings and totally out of subject discussions. I have found the explanation I was looking for:

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/01/06/p-m-kitco-roundup-gold-ends-near-steady-recovers-from-big-spike-down/

Edited January 7, 2014 by kuokam

[Ammeo 10]

Nice clean 20 USD swing off the low before the NFP! As expected once again the number was not positive or in tune with the "ADP" number.

 

Unemployment slightly down but will likely come back up a bit in upcoming releases or at least stay around here back to 7.0%

[SunTrader 10]

Before NFP 830am announcement it ............. dropped.

 

The move up was immediately thereafter.