Gold Bullish or Bearish

[SunTrader 10]

I was referring to S&P. I should have been specific.

 

Bounced today. Need to break this if downtrend is to continue:

[MightyMouse 12]

Bounced today. Need to break this if downtrend is to continue:

 

My opinion is that geopolitical news tends to blur trend lines.Trend is up in S&P for a very long time. Vola will change at some point, but trend is still intact.

[SunTrader 10]

My opinion is that geopolitical news tends to blur trend lines.Trend is up in S&P for a very long time. Vola will change at some point, but trend is still intact.

I agree. I think we are getting our signals crossed.

 

Downtrend was meant only as the current move down from highs.

 

Trendline (so far) and trend overall is still up. :thumbs up:

[Patuca 13]

My opinion is that geopolitical news tends to blur trend lines.Trend is up in S&P for a very long time. Vola will change at some point, but trend is still intact.

Fingers crossed?:rofl::rofl:

[bobcollett 10]

Stopped out today at 1419 for 18 point profit.

New horse cancelled, but I have enough money to pay the HP on the Merc.

Now have a look at the attached....live

The arrow shows the trendline break.

The red square shows consolidation

And we have a move UP with a possible breakout... orange highlight

Please post your comments NOW ... what would you do? No hindsight.

regards

bobc

[ntrader 10]

The price of gold is still down 17% this year...

[SunTrader 10]

The price of gold is still down 17% this year...

 

We know, we know .

[SunTrader 10]

A bunch of spread charts I've been working on. Gold/Silver, Gold/SPX, Gold/US Dollar and Gold London am/pm Fix in USDollar and Euro:

Edited September 1, 2013 by SunTrader

[tradingwizzard 10]

Stopped out today at 1419 for 18 point profit.

New horse cancelled, but I have enough money to pay the HP on the Merc.

Now have a look at the attached....live

The arrow shows the trendline break.

The red square shows consolidation

And we have a move UP with a possible breakout... orange highlight

Please post your comments NOW ... what would you do? No hindsight.

regards

bobc

 

maybe it's a bit late, but here's why I would do: any trend line that is broken is the subject of a fake break..........in order to avoid that, one should wait for the next swing, and then just draw two horizontal lines (one at the previous lows in your chart, and the next one at the highs before the swing)....if the highs are taken, then the new trend line is the true one, and you should connect the recent lows with the last low price made with that swing......if the lows are taken, then the new trend line to the downside should be drawn from the absolute highs in the top left of your chart and through the new swing's high......quite simple, isn't it?

[bobcollett 10]

maybe it's a bit late, but here's why I would do: any trend line that is broken is the subject of a fake break..........in order to avoid that, one should wait for the next swing, and then just draw two horizontal lines (one at the previous lows in your chart, and the next one at the highs before the swing)....if the highs are taken, then the new trend line is the true one, and you should connect the recent lows with the last low price made with that swing......if the lows are taken, then the new trend line to the downside should be drawn from the absolute highs in the top left of your chart and through the new swing's high......quite simple, isn't it?

 

Thank you for your reply TW,

TOO LATE

Hope you enjoyed your 3 week trip to Antartica....did you see any penguins?

regards

bobc

[tradingwizzard 10]

Actually it was Marocco....and no penguins what so ever

[bobcollett 10]

The rally is over

Back below 1400

And its a bear market......or is it?

Draw a couple of trend lines and decide

And draw a couple of horizontal lines for support / resistance

regards

bobc

PS Its a 6 month chart

[SunTrader 10]

Bob,

 

Added another to my post above.

 

Sun

[SunTrader 10]

Oh its over (the rally). If I am right that is?

[bobcollett 10]

Oh its over (the rally). If I am right that is?

 

Hi SunTrader,

You are either right or wrong......50% of the time.

You dont sound confident when you say..."if I am right?"

Please explain how your chart works.

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

Hi SunTrader,

You are either right or wrong......50% of the time.

You dont sound confident when you say..."if I am right?"

Please explain how your chart works.

regards

bobc

Oh I am confident but one can never be too confident when it comes to trading and probabilities. I'd say 70/30 or maybe even 80/20.

 

But chart is showing ABC correction over at recent swing high and bear market resuming. But for good measure a daily close (not intraday) below 1343 trendline marker and it is on.

 

Aug 28th time, price and pattern - with a pinbar thrown in for good measure says so.

 

Note time equality of wave A (16 days) and wave C (15 days)

[Patuca 13]

Gold is in a channel. Gold is bullish. Price traded up just above a prior resistance level (see yellow circle) then reversed. Notice the volume on the bar that made the high price. Lots of volume but low close. That means lots of selling took place on that bar. Hence price went down on next two bars. So, price is in a PB of the bull channel. How big of a pullback? The trendline (pink) was broken. But most breakouts fail. However, the trendline and top channel line form a wedge. This is a topping wedge. Indicates weakness also. The trend could resume on the next trading session but i would think there is a 60% chance that price will continue down to, or close to, the first green horizontal line before reversing for a continuation of the bull trend. There is a 40% chance price will continue down to or close to the second horizontal green line. This would bring price down to the bottom channel line.

 

Notice the vol on the last two PB BARS. Lower volume. That is good volume for a continuation of the bull trend after the PB completes.

 

How would play this? At this point I would look to go long near or at the first horizontal green line IF the volume stays small. If were to continue the uptrend before reaching the first green line then I would get long at the market. If i got long at first green line and price continues down through it by more than 10 points i would exit for a loss and wait for next long entry at the second green line. Might would even short and get back my 10 points. If it makes the second green line then I would go long again. If it stops me out at the second green line then my bias would be changing to bearish and pretty much confirmed bearish (on a day chart) if it trades thru 1300.

 

Much depends on the correlation of price and vol and spread size over the next few sessions but this how i view this present price action.

 

The red boxes indicate the ATM areas for trading mini ranges. Once bullish trends starts back again there will be many more of these boxes. They, of course, also appear in downtrend areas so they can be played there too.

 

In general i see gold as still bullish but in a PB. I look for it to resume the bull trend.

 

Again, never do as i do and never do as i say do..never trust any projections i make...this is all for information only and to make you get a good laugh...and for me to gloat if i happen to be correct.....:rofl: :rofl: the chart is from barchart..the markings are mine.

Edited September 1, 2013 by Patuca

[SunTrader 10]

Got another chart.

 

In retrospect is it any wonder price turned last Wednesday - as it approached zone including top of high volume spike down day from 4/15/12. Also notice divergence between price and rate of change indi on bottom:

[bobcollett 10]

Gold is in a channel. Gold is bullish. Price traded up just above a prior resistance level (see yellow circle) then reversed. Notice the volume on the bar that made the high price. Lots of volume but low close. That means lots of selling took place on that bar. Hence price went down on next two bars. So, price is in a PB of the bull channel. How big of a pullback? The trendline (pink) was broken. But most breakouts fail. However, the trendline and top channel line form a wedge. This is a topping wedge. Indicates weakness also. The trend could resume on the next trading session but i would think there is a 60% chance that price will continue down to, or close to, the first green horizontal line before reversing for a continuation of the bull trend. There is a 40% chance price will continue down to or close to the second horizontal green line. This would bring price down to the bottom channel line.

 

Notice the vol on the last two PB BARS. Lower volume. That is good volume for a continuation of the bull trend after the PB completes.

 

How would play this? At this point I would look to go long near or at the first horizontal green line IF the volume stays small. If were to continue the uptrend before reaching the first green line then I would get long at the market. If i got long at first green line and price continues down through it by more than 10 points i would exit for a loss and wait for next long entry at the second green line. Might would even short and get back my 10 points. If it makes the second green line then I would go long again. If it stops me out at the second green line then my bias would be changing to bearish and pretty much confirmed bearish (on a day chart) if it trades thru 1300.

 

Much depends on the correlation of price and vol and spread size over the next few sessions but this how i view this present price action.

 

The red boxes indicate the ATM areas for trading mini ranges. Once bullish trends starts back again there will be many more of these boxes. They, of course, also appear in downtrend areas so they can be played there too.

 

In general i see gold as still bullish but in a PB. I look for it to resume the bull trend.

 

Again, never do as i do and never do as i say do..never trust any projections i make...this is all for information only and to make you get a good laugh...and for me to gloat if i happen to be correct.....:rofl: :rofl: the chart is from barchart..the markings are mine.

 

Hi Patuca

I now finaly see how your ATMs work

I like this....but for these scalps to work , you must have very low costs ?

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca

I now finaly see how your ATMs work

I like this....but for these scalps to work , you must have very low costs ?

regards

bobc

very feasible capturing 9 to 18 points per contract..although this isn't ATM BUT but in another instance, grabbing a 15 point scalp: just since i posted my channel chart gold traded down to the general area of the first horizontal green line on my chart and went back up enough for a 15 or so point scalp. Actually...if a trader got long at the green line he could take 1/2 off at 15 to 18 pts and let other half go for the ride..to where....ever...

[bobcollett 10]

very feasible capturing 9 to 18 points per contract..although this isn't ATM BUT but in another instance, grabbing a 15 point scalp: just since i posted my channel chart gold traded down to the general area of the first horizontal green line on my chart and went back up enough for a 15 or so point scalp. Actually...if a trader got long at the green line he could take 1/2 off at 15 to 18 pts and let other half go for the ride..to where....ever...

 

Hi Patuca,

You make an interesting comment....take off half the trade at a certain point.

I wonder what other traders think of this, rather than letting the full trade run.

I know Might Mouse and SIUYA have made some comments on this somewhere on TL.

I like to let the full trade run.Am I wrong?

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca,

You make an interesting comment....take off half the trade at a certain point.

I wonder what other traders think of this, rather than letting the full trade run.

I know Might Mouse and SIUYA have made some comments on this somewhere on TL.

I like to let the full trade run.Am I wrong?

regards

bobc

 

I can't say you are wrong. You just run the risk that if you have misjudged the direction or strenght of the market then you can end up giving back your profits. In others words, you can be 20 points to the good and give it all back..it is a disgusting feeling... I just like to lock in some profits then adjust my stop up (in an up move) so that if i get stopped out on the last half of my position i still end up with a profit from the first half.

 

Some traders do the opposite...they scale in and add as market moves their way. While they are scaling in i am scaling out and putting money in the bank...jingle..jingle..how sweet the sound...once i am flat IF the move continues on up i just jump back in for more jingles...at some point there will be a pullback...potential quick short scalp.. I try to never follow PB very far unless volumes increases as the pullback is being made...i am speaking of trading here and not long term investing...ok

[Patuca 13]

Ps Sitting Bull went back to his tipi for some venison stew and to smoke the peace pipe as he ponders the seasonal changes soon coming. He doesn't seem worried.....

[SunTrader 10]

.....

PS I am going to call my new horse Sun Trader , but with a space between the Sun and Trader

Took me awhile to come up with something appropriate - this will have to do:

 

[bobcollett 10]

Took me awhile to come up with something appropriate - this will have to do:

 

 

Thank you SunTrader

Regis is a beautiful horse.

But Regis is a champion. The horse I was going to buy, before I got stopped out was more of a plodder. Thats why I was going to call him....... :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Kind regards

bobc