Gold Bullish or Bearish

[bobcollett 10]

I have a NEW PLAN

Gold is consolidating in a tight band with support at 1270 and big resistance at 1300

Its still a bear market, but I am still a little bullish ,short term

I think I can scalp 20 points .

BUY at 1278

Sell at 1298

Stop at 1269 and enter short,because then its one way down to 1200

But I still need an edge to buy.... a strengthening $

I wonder if anyone has some info , if the $ goes up 100 pips , Gold drops $5 , or similar.

regards

bobc

 

Sorry

My post will really confuse Patuca

The edge to BUY should read a "weakening $"

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

did anyone jump on the gold ATM machine for the ride up? not a single person claimed to jump on it for the ride down yesterday. typical range behaviour....race to the bottom..doubletime it to the top...

 

PS watch. that top today...it may not make it all the way back to top of range..bar to left indicates that...however...it could make the top of range by the close because of irrational exuberance...i would be just ready to grab my profits if i perceived it has tanked....The gold ATM machine is dispensing free cash but where is the line of people waiting to get in? have they lost their trust in gold..abandoned what they perceive to be a sinking ship...remember the famous "boy plunger" of yesteryear? he said he always made his money sitting tight...not jumping ship...

 

Remember gold is bullish...nevertheless..i would short it tomm, or today, once the top is reached...why? RANGE...RANGE..RANGE. 70%, maybe a tad more, of range breakouts fail..tactical strategy ...fade the tops and bottoms...providing you place your stops far enough away from trading range to be out of stop runnings filthy reach...one may suffer only one loss and that is when the range does indeed break out and hits your stop.

 

P.S. The above is for educational purpose only and not for real trading..you can lose your money trading futures and simulated results are not the same as real trading..nor are my BS opinions.

 

Never do as i say do and for crying out loud never do as I do...

 

The ES is really starting to look nice for shorting. It is getting more and more bearish as time goes by...remember..time..price..symmetry

 

Patuca

Edited July 18, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

Sorry

My post will really confuse Patuca

The edge to BUY should read a "weakening $"

regards

bobc

dear capt Bob it is all in the chart...you don't need to correlate it with dollar but you can...here of lately QE drives gold.....promise of QE keeps it stable for the moment..but you know how politicians and bankers are..

 

All this wealth being built in stocks is a house of cards ready to tumble once the plug is pulled..the addiction to easy money is growing and blowing up the biggest bubble we have ever seen. When it crashes i will be riding it down...will you?

[bobcollett 10]

 

PS watch. that top today...it may not make it all the way back to top of range..bar to left indicates that...however...it could make the top of range by the close because of irrational exuberance...

 

 

Patuca

 

Hi Patuca

What time frame are you looking at?

Why does the bar to the left indicate a lower high next?

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Will explain shortly

Edited July 18, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca

What time frame are you looking at?

Why does the bar to the left indicate a lower high next?

regards

bobc

Hi Patuca

What time frame are you looking at?

Why does the bar to the left indicate a lower high next?

regards

bobc

daily time frame and intraday 5 min. On the daily previous bar to the left outside bearish bar tail on top closing on the low....weakness . Then on the 5 min intraday for today we keep getting major trend reversals within a larger sideways range around the 1286- 1287 area near intraday top...this too indicates weakness. This intraday range has formed around 1287 -1281. that is why i would get out on ATM macine strategy on any rally towards 1288. Then short that top of the established intraday range. And cover as it falls towards 1281. Rinse an repeat... Basically trading a new intraday range within the daily range on your previous chart.. All ranges show same behaviour. I dont think it will make it back to top of DAILY range today by close. The atm strategy was playing the daily range. Time to get out of that..maybe past time and only focus on intraday range...in other words the move up for the day is over IMO.

[Patuca 13]

Sorry about the delay in my last post as i like to post beforehand, if possible, but in this case i could not do so as i wished. I could only post late, near close. I travel alot therefore must have mobile internet and i could not get a good signal in the area i was in the last two hours or so. it was very sporadic. anyway i see price didn't make it back to top of daily range as i suspected it wouldn't.

[Patuca 13]

The ES is really starting to look nice for shorting. It is getting more and more bearish as time goes by...remember..time..price..symmetry

 

Patuca

at 10:01 a.m central time i said ES looking nice to short.within 19 minutes later bar 10:15 (on 5 minute bar chart) the short at 1687 presented itself. the ride down to 1679 was nice.. did anyone listen to patuca?? they never do....:helloooo: see MM all i have to do is do that 10 times and i am back my paper losses (as i still have the position) on the position trade :rofl: and still have my position for the plunge down :rofl: or triple up and get back losses faster...for scalping one should use SL..for intraday swing might be a good idea..position trading is a horse of a different color...

 

remember ES is bearish..the plunge will soon come...are you ready? in the meantime you make money on the ups and downs per the theory in Hurst book....much more dinero can be made on cycle trading than position trading....:missy:

Edited July 18, 2013 by Patuca

[bobcollett 10]

Heres the latest Gold chart with Gann overlay

And a breakout through the green arc

I am long 2 contracts and the price almost got to my target 1298

But now I am looking at my version of Market Profile ..............volume on price.

And between 1300 and 1340 there is NO VOLUME.......no interest.

So if the price can get to about 1305, it can go to 1340

I am holding for the weekend

regards

bobc

[tradingwizzard 10]

Heres the latest Gold chart with Gann overlay

And a breakout through the green arc

I am long 2 contracts and the price almost got to my target 1298

But now I am looking at my version of Market Profile ..............volume on price.

And between 1300 and 1340 there is NO VOLUME.......no interest.

So if the price can get to about 1305, it can go to 1340

I am holding for the weekend

regards

bobc

 

1. those resistance arcs are Fibo arcs?

 

2. how do you know how to set the size of the box (this is my main problem on Gann)?

 

3. aren't you interested to see what Friday brings before deciding if you're holding the positions over the weekend?

 

thanks

[bobcollett 10]

1. those resistance arcs are Fibo arcs?

 

2. how do you know how to set the size of the box (this is my main problem on Gann)?

 

3. aren't you interested to see what Friday brings before deciding if you're holding the positions over the weekend?

 

thanks

 

Hi tw

The resistance arcs are based on Fibs

The box is drawn to the size of the initial upthrust. If there are 11 up candles, then thats where you draw the box

Start at any pivot low. In this case it goes up 3 candles

I see I have not drawn it correctly. I have left out the tail of the third candle, but there is still a braekout of the green arc.The fourth arc (red) acts like a magnet.But it could reach this arc sideways.Can you see that?

The upthrust must be a fib number.If you get say 6 candles ,then you are wrong

 

I am very interested in what Friday brings.I could still get stopped out. But I feel confident I am going to make some cash.

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

Hi TW

Perhaps I should comment some more on Gann Theory

I understand it to mean that PRICE wont reach a point until it is ready.

It requires a certain amount of time.And you can see the red arc is still a couple of days away. So its not going to happen on today,Friday.

regards

bobc

PS And of course, NOTHING is 100% certain

[tradingwizzard 10]

Hi tw

The resistance arcs are based on Fibs

The box is drawn to the size of the initial upthrust. If there are 11 up candles, then thats where you draw the box

Start at any pivot low. In this case it goes up 3 candles

I see I have not drawn it correctly. I have left out the tail of the third candle, but there is still a braekout of the green arc.The fourth arc (red) acts like a magnet.But it could reach this arc sideways.Can you see that?

The upthrust must be a fib number.If you get say 6 candles ,then you are wrong

 

I am very interested in what Friday brings.I could still get stopped out. But I feel confident I am going to make some cash.

regards

bobc

 

1. ok, they are Fibs, good to know......question: 31.8, 50, 61.8? and the last one? the big red one?

 

2. the 1x1 line is supposed to be the most important line in Gann's theory, as, depending on the time frame you are using it, it means that the rising angle (on any move to the upside on that time frame) should be the same......question: how long/far away in time the boxes stay, and what would be the invalidation area? ....I see this is the daily chart

 

3. the fourth arc acts like a magnet......it is something like the median line in Pitchfork? why like a magnet? can you elaborate some more on this please?

 

thanks

[bobcollett 10]

1. ok, they are Fibs, good to know......question: 31.8, 50, 61.8? and the last one? the big red one?

 

2. the 1x1 line is supposed to be the most important line in Gann's theory, as, depending on the time frame you are using it, it means that the rising angle (on any move to the upside on that time frame) should be the same......question: how long/far away in time the boxes stay, and what would be the invalidation area? ....I see this is the daily chart

 

3. the fourth arc acts like a magnet......it is something like the median line in Pitchfork? why like a magnet? can you elaborate some more on this please?

 

thanks

 

Hi TW

You asked some interesting questions, so I thought I better go and reread the manual.

And of course I am doing nothing like the manual says.

Mainly because , like all GANN Theory, its badly written.

I will get back to you

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

:thumbs up::thumbs up:

Heres the latest Gold chart with Gann overlay

And a breakout through the green arc

I am long 2 contracts and the price almost got to my target 1298

But now I am looking at my version of Market Profile ..............volume on price.

And between 1300 and 1340 there is NO VOLUME.......no interest.

So if the price can get to about 1305, it can go to 1340

I am holding for the weekend

regards

bobc

capt Bob if i was long two contracts and my target was 1298 i would grab that profit quickly maybe 1295 or 1296 area and look to reverse and short 1295 to 1298 area. I would place a stop just out of range.

 

If instead it breaks to the upside then i would close my short (if not stopped out ) double up and reverse to long AFTER i determined it was a legit breakout and not stop running above the range.

 

why? it is in a range STILL.. brave of heart short at top of range and take profits on long. breakouts of ranges fail 70% or so of the time. of course at some point a legit breakout occurs and one will get stopped out. when that happens it elementary to get back the loss. just double up in the other direction ONCE it has proven to be a legit breakout and not just chop which will only increase losses.

 

heres hoping i am wrong and you are right and she breaks 1305 and you sail on like silver girl....wishing you the best...:thumbs up:

 

P.S. just dont let the winner convert into a loser because you are betting on a breakout before it happens.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

Hi TW

You asked some interesting questions, so I thought I better go and reread the manual.

And of course I am doing nothing like the manual says.

Mainly because , like all GANN Theory, its badly written.

I will get back to you

regards

bobc

Capt Bob is this manual free or for purchase? Where? Gann was a good tapereader....and predictor?

 

Thanks

 

Patuca

[Patuca 13]

You rocking capt bob...1297 inching closer to a breakout..:applaud:

[bobcollett 10]

You rocking capt bob...1297 inching closer to a breakout..:applaud:

 

Hi Patuca

Its already been to 1298

There have been 3 gaps today.You dont often see a gap in the middle of the day.I think that indicates strength

So far only one has closed.But you are a better trader than me ,so............

I will move my stop to 1295, and hold. :crap:

 

I,m getting a bit nervous

My worry is not today.My worry is Asia opens GAP DOWN on Monday. Way below my stop.

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca

Its already been to 1298

There have been 3 gaps today.You dont often see a gap in the middle of the day.I think that indicates strength

So far only one has closed.But you are a better trader than me ,so............

I will move my stop to 1295, and hold. :crap:

 

I,m getting a bit nervous

My worry is not today.My worry is Asia opens GAP DOWN on Monday. Way below my stop.

regards

bobc

what contract you trading..my data feed only shows 1297.1 as high

[Patuca 13]

me..well just me ...but i would be flat by end of session..can always enter back in on next session....

[bobcollett 10]

what contract you trading..my data feed only shows 1297.1 as high

 

IG Markets Spot Gold CFDs

And you are correct. Tape shows 1297. I looked at the chart. Not too carefully

I am sure you are right.....go home flat

I have another reason to hold

Today is a big TURN day . I think all markets will close lower, the $ will weaken, and Gold will break 1300.

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

IG Markets Spot Gold CFDs

And you are correct. Tape shows 1297. I looked at the chart. Not too carefully

I am sure you are right.....go home flat

I have another reason to hold

Today is a big TURN day . I think all markets will close lower, the $ will weaken, and Gold will break 1300.

regards

bobc

are you saying you think gold will break 1300 today..this session?

[tradingwizzard 10]

Hi TW

You asked some interesting questions, so I thought I better go and reread the manual.

And of course I am doing nothing like the manual says.

Mainly because , like all GANN Theory, its badly written.

I will get back to you

regards

bobc

 

looking forward to ....

[sergso 10]

I am turning bullish on gold and have the feeling that there will be a severe plunge in the stock market soon. Just a feeling. I know it's not good to rely on feelings but I handle them with options:)

[bobcollett 10]

are you saying you think gold will break 1300 today..this session?

 

Hi Patuca

No. But it sure would be nice

 

Please go back and read post 788. Price and time must agree on a date. And thats next week.

I dont know if or when it will happen, but I'm prepared .

regards

bobc