Gold Bullish or Bearish

[bobcollett 10]

Nobody has learn't their lesson have they? every dog has his day....soon your barking will stop...and i will be barking then....

 

This is a true story

An elderly man,Pat....short for ,owned a large farm in Alabama.

He had a large pond in the back , next to the river.

Nice clean water. He added picnic tables, some apple and peach trees and HORSESHOE courts.

One evening, he decided to go down to the pond and pick some apples.

He took a 5 gallon bucket along to bring back the fruit.

As he neared the pond, he saw a bunch of young women skinny -dipping in his pond.

He made the women aware of his presence and they all ducked for the deep end.

One of the women shouted to him,

"We're not coming out until you leave !"

Pat frowned and said "I didn"t come down here to watch you ladies swim naked or make you get out of the pool"

Holding the bucket up , he said,

"I'm here to feed the crocodile..."

 

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

This is a true story

An elderly man,Pat....short for ,owned a large farm in Alabama.

He had a large pond in the back , next to the river.

Nice clean water. He added picnic tables, some apple and peach trees and HORSESHOE courts.

One evening, he decided to go down to the pond and pick some apples.

He took a 5 gallon bucket along to bring back the fruit.

As he neared the pond, he saw a bunch of young women skinny -dipping in his pond.

He made the women aware of his presence and they all ducked for the deep end.

One of the women shouted to him,

"We're not coming out until you leave !"

Pat frowned and said "I didn"t come down here to watch you ladies swim naked or make you get out of the pool"

Holding the bucket up , he said,

"I'm here to feed the crocodile..."

 

regards

bobc

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

 

capt bob did you short coffee today at the indicated price in my previous email? did anyone?

[SunTrader 10]

.............

"I'm here to feed the crocodile..."

 

regards

bobc

Don't know (or care) what the response was but "I don't care who ya are, that's funny right there"

 

:o

[bobcollett 10]

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

 

capt bob did you short coffee today at the indicated price in my previous email? did anyone?

 

Hi Patuca

No trade taken.I need to understand the coffee market a bit more.....get a feel for it.

I also received some inside info from a coffee grower to BUY at a breakout of 123.

So I did nothing.

Rome wasn,t built in a day.

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Hi Patuca

No trade taken.I need to understand the coffee market a bit more.....get a feel for it.

I also received some inside info from a coffee grower to BUY at a breakout of 123.

So I did nothing.

Rome wasn,t built in a day.

regards

bobc

well sooner or later there will be a breakout...but it could be south or north...in the meantime the atm strategy works quite well. At least 3 profitable trades, perhaps 4, since i made the post.

[MightyMouse 12]

well sooner or later there will be a breakout...but it could be south or north...in the meantime the atm strategy works quite well. At least 3 profitable trades, perhaps 4, since i made the post.

 

Sheepies use stop losses because conventionally that is what you are supposed to do and you don't because you are not a sheep.

 

Sheep also do not add to a losing position. Do you add to a losing position?

 

ES must be a better short now at 1640, no?

[tradingwizzard 10]

Sheepies use stop losses because conventionally that is what you are supposed to do and you don't because you are not a sheep.

 

Sheep also do not add to a losing position. Do you add to a losing position?

 

ES must be a better short now at 1640, no?

 

if you are scalling into a position and using multiple entries (basically dividing the original entry size into multiple entries) then adding to a losing position should not harm......just the opposite, your average should look better......but with the SL I disagree........and the asociation with the sheep since out of place.....IMO

[MightyMouse 12]

if you are scalling into a position and using multiple entries (basically dividing the original entry size into multiple entries) then adding to a losing position should not harm......just the opposite, your average should look better......but with the SL I disagree........and the asociation with the sheep since out of place.....IMO

 

Fundamental disagreement.

 

You have the smallest position on when you are fortunate to have a trade go in your favor right away and you have the largest position on when price moves in the wrong direction. I rather scale out of a loser and into a winner than scale into a loser and out of a winner. A bout of bad luck will kick your ass if you scale into losing positions.

 

Patuca uses the sheep analogy. read back a few posts.

[Patuca 13]

Sheepies use stop losses because conventionally that is what you are supposed to do and you don't because you are not a sheep.

 

Sheep also do not add to a losing position. Do you add to a losing position?

 

ES must be a better short now at 1640, no?

absolutely...thinking of shorting some more as i await the plunge....btw did you recover your loss? ..i'm sure you did..many times over...

 

remember ..every dog has his day to piss in the bucket....

[Patuca 13]

Scaling into losers can be an amazing strategy if you know when,and how, to do it. It is akin to catching a falling knife..another great strategy that deep pockets use everyday whilst they teach the sheep to never do it...wonder why?

 

PS indices remain bearish...they just don't look it...the code is thus screaming....

[Patuca 13]

PPSS gold remains bullish...silver too...:missy:

[SunTrader 10]

......just the opposite, your average should look better......

If you are satisfied with average results.

[Patuca 13]

Oh shucks... another profitible trade in coffee using the ATM strategy...capt Bob when you gonna get your ATM card?.......drink a cup of coffee and think about it....i am quite sure MM is all over coffee....he likes tight stops..which he never changes...regardless....unless..he changes them in the other direction...the ATM strategy uses fairly tight stops..modus operandi for MM...not necessarily bad and can actually be good....if you use them...on the hand sometimes it can be bad.....which can really be good because even though one loses they preserve their capital...see losing preserves capital...most cannot understand that concept....so we must lose to preserve and gain to lose...sounds logical for a breakeven strategy..unless one actually loses more than they gain..which thus becomes a losing strategy...whereas gaining without losing is always a capital building strategy...cow manure! gets quite confusing.....

 

Look, just forget all i said above except the ATM strategy... It uses stops..and preserves capital while spitting out gains..the best of both worlds..plus some very informed people say markets run sideways 70% of the time and this is the party the ATM strategy really likes..

 

PS ...WARNING..do not do what i say do and certainly do not do what I do..

 

Probally won't ever have to worry about that..no one does what i say do nor do they do what i do..except for the dipsticks....:helloooo: :rofl: :rofl:

[Patuca 13]

Liquid gold...i.e. coffee...columbian...is at this moment as i type..well it is setting itself up for the LONG strategy of the recently revealed ATM strategy...all who choose to demo trade it with play money must never forget to place those stops out of reach but close enough to recover a loss quickly should the ATM strategy go on "hold".

 

Probally none will make the play. Since a jackass revealed the ATM strategy...sorry ladies it is hard to get reformed...i will keep trying..maybe i should use the word burro? Ha yes..i am a BURRO! What is mighty mouse? A trap diffuser? :rofl: :rofl:

 

PS it is all in fun MM...since your are smiling at this moment with gleams of gloating in the white of those eyeballs...

 

PPSS Your gleams shall turn to tears once i find a good place to short some more...i am just letting the market and the secret code just talk to me..patience my friend..patience...it takes a while for tops to form....

[SunTrader 10]

I see Gold market has finally gotten the memo Dollar is ripping higher - and the Euro and Pound the other way.

[bobcollett 10]

I have a possible bottom for both Gold and Silver based on Uranus cycle.

I wont post it to avoid all the ridicule, unless someone is interested.

 

We all understand the fundamentals.........its a bear market (You do understand this Pat???)

How do you find a bottom using fundamentals?

Some comments please

 

Now for a different idea in the technicals

I thought I would look at FIBS, having read a whole thread elsewhere on TL

I note both SunTrader and Siyua find FIBS useful.

I struggle to decide on the start point.

Do I start at the high $1833 and project down 0.618 = $1132

So the turn is at about $1132

Or do I still take off the $255 where the trend started =$ 877

 

We still need to discuss elliot wave.... next week.

regards

bobc

PS Some more . The only FIB in nature is 0.618.

All other FIBs are hogwash (burros)

[Patuca 13]

I see Gold market has finally gotten the memo Dollar is ripping higher - and the Euro and Pound the other way.

Exactly as the federal reserve wishes...gold has been pounded down to protect the dollar as the reserve currency of the world...once that point has been driven deep into the hearts and minds of all the little white sheep then and only then will they weaken the dollar to strenghten the economy..leaving the sheep to eat thorns..it is a game to keep the game going..

 

As we know all games end.....please await more QE perhaps under another name as they taper the present QE...

 

gold never got the memo....the little white sheep did:rofl: :rofl:

[MightyMouse 12]

absolutely...thinking of shorting some more as i await the plunge....btw did you recover your loss? ..i'm sure you did..many times over...

 

remember ..every dog has his day to piss in the bucket....

 

I didn't recover anything. I took that trade because I had a window of time open to take such a trade and don't have the time to trade now. Too much going on so the loss remains on the books. as well as the losses from other trades. Hopefully I will recover it later in the year when i have more time.

[Patuca 13]

I have a possible bottom for both Gold and Silver based on Uranus cycle.

I wont post it to avoid all the ridicule, unless someone is interested.

 

We all understand the fundamentals.........its a bear market (You do understand this Pat???)

How do you find a bottom using fundamentals?

Some comments please

 

Now for a different idea in the technicals

I thought I would look at FIBS, having read a whole thread elsewhere on TL

I note both SunTrader and Siyua find FIBS useful.

I struggle to decide on the start point.

Do I start at the high $1833 and project down 0.618 = $1132

So the turn is at about $1132

Or do I still take off the $255 where the trend started =$ 877

 

We still need to discuss elliot wave.... next week.

regards

bobc

PS Some more . The only FIB in nature is 0.618.

All other FIBs are hogwash (burros)

capt Bob please do post the uranus prediction.. And move forward with the fib exploration..Ignore the ridicule..i know it can bruise the ego....but it will heal...with time...remember mr WD and his notion of price..time..market symmetry..when the time is correct..prices get right..the market has a lovely symmetry and the bruised ego gets healed.

 

while it is not a fib most fibbers include the 50% retracement. Concerning it i quote mr wd:

 

"You can make a fortune by following this one rule alone. A careful study and review of the past movements in any commodity will prove to you beyond doubt that this rule works and that you will make profits following it"

 

I now quote mr Pugh:

"the 50% reaction is one of the most valuable of market habits and the trader should follow and profit by this most dependable of all market laws. This remarkable form of market action is far the safest and surest movement on which the trader can base his moves"

 

there..... the sages of yesteryear have thus spoken...it behooves all dipsticks to give a heads up and listen....

 

A mr racette i believe who post here occasionally has probally built much of his trading strategy around fibs and 50% retracement...then mitsubishi has done quite bit of research into this and i think he has some very worthwhile contributions in this area even though we antagonize each other...well..really me..antagonizing him...

 

as a starting point..well that depends on time frame one is trading...any discernable swing high/swing low can be a starting point..on any time frame chart. ..generally you trade with trend catching falling knifes on the pullbacks and averaging down losers on the pullbacks if you are so inclined to do so. If not, then you can try to pick bottoms and tops of the pullbacks. problem is both techniques break the much vaunted trading rules firmly established by the elite......

[SIUYA 11]

Now for a different idea in the technicals

I thought I would look at FIBS, having read a whole thread elsewhere on TL

I note both SunTrader and Siyua find FIBS useful.

 

I like 50% - not a fib - and use it usually to help provide a zone of interest during a retracement of a break out, and mainly in those instruments that exhibit that behaviour

 

(Otherwise I some time draw them for comfort and cognitive bias)

 

so in this case your guess for gold is as good as mine, and my cognitive bias would go for 50% retracement from 300 to 1800 or 750 >> 1800-750=1050.

But then allowing for backwardation/contango and inflation this number is just pure BS.

[Patuca 13]

Did nary a brave soul go long on coffee a few minutes ago after my clear and present warning (made beforehand)..nope...i thought so..the ATM strategy..not only preserving the capital...but spitting ....spitting out the cash......

 

 

I am going to have to stop and do something worthwhile...like go fishing...the rains have stopped here in Alabama...the flooded rivers and lakes are clearing and the fish are there for the taking....sounds kinda like trading eh? when things clear up the money is there for the taking.

 

where oh where shall i go next? Kentucky? Tenn? New York? Arizona?...central america?

 

Should i buy a motorhome and pull my moto behind it? I am getting old you know.....

[SIUYA 11]

Did nary a brave soul go long on coffee a few minutes ago after my clear and present warning (made beforehand)..nope...i thought so..the ATM strategy..not only preserving the capital...but spitting ....spitting out the cash......

........

 

where oh where shall i go next? Kentucky? Tenn? New York? Arizona?...central america?

 

suggestions....

start a separate coffee thread....

[bobcollett 10]

suggestions....

start a separate coffee thread....

 

To all members

I am sorry

It is my fault

I posed the question about Coffee on this Gold thread.

And my friend Patuca is just trying to help.

And bear in mind , he is nearly 72, so he might not realise the implications. ;)

regards

bobc

[tradingwizzard 10]

To all members

I am sorry

It is my fault

I posed the question about Coffee on this Gold thread.

And my friend Patuca is just trying to help.

And bear in mind , he is nearly 72, so he might not realise the implications. ;)

regards

bobc

 

I don't really understand what's the problem between you two....if there is any

[Patuca 13]

I don't really understand what's the problem between you two....if there is any

tradinglizzard. The problem is thus:

 

1) i patuca am old and ride a moto

2) capt bob is older ..sips on coffee and plays golf

3) siuya beside having a funny name is REALLY old and he likes to fib..well almost..he prefers 50% retracements. plus he appears to like fiat money..

 

so when you get three old people on a thread in the presence of tradinglizzards we cannot help ourselves..thus we fall apart...

 

that said there really is no problem at all. Suiya just wants to keep the thread on gold..and fails to see my coffee predictions as little ATM machines. now if the machines spit all gold coins all would be well and everyone happy except mighty mouse who detests gold and loves stop losses.

 

when i find it i shall post a video of mightymouse which i am sure he will like and the rest of us will be astonished..but...i have to find it first..

 

Patuca