Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Patuca 13]

if you turn the chart to read Wind correctly , then its going backward compared to a normal pricing chart....hence when you inverse it to correct this.....Patucca must be bullish (I assume the direction is up)

 

As for prediction.....well. Even Patucca knows there more to it than simply looking at a chart often the chart will tell only half the story....its when the story and the chart lines up.....and when they dont then its usually best to err on the side of the what the market is actually doing as its better to make money than eventually be right but broke.

 

As for the SP500 - (I dont trade or look too closely at it)

I expect it comes down to some support as the mood/context/story is in a period of possible change as a result of recent Fed action, worries on corporate profits, govt talk on world taxes, China growth or not, commodities falling etc; etc.

At support good companies will likely be worth buying again...presently it appears from looking at the chart - its in the middle - never a good place to trade....and even if it rallies in the short term IMHO its entering a sell rallies, buy dips mood.

trying to mess with my prediction are you? The chart has all the stories built into it. They are already processed there. The chart actually tells the story of what the market actually did. And it tells another secret story...what the market will probally do....next. It isn't 100% simply because new unprocessed stories are in the new future and they have to be discounted in the PA and show up on the chart as such. However, since no one can predict the unknown stories, that are yet to arrive, the only basis we actually have is the chart, with all the processed stories it tells and the secret story it indicates for those who can decode it. But since the market can't discount an unknown story we cannot predict with 100% accuracy.

 

But predict or attempt to predict we must. It is the only way to make money.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Patuca

[SIUYA 11]

trying to mess with my prediction are you?

....................

But predict or attempt to predict we must. It is the only way to make money.

 

thats like the paradox of fallibility - belief that we are fallible is probably wrong.

[MightyMouse 12]

 

"Got a great question for you market sages. What is the next move for the indices from a daily chart? Up? Down? Sideways? Don't tell me the b.s. that you don't try to predict the market, you just react. We all try to position ourselves for a future move..so we all are trying to determine the probabilities of the direction for the NEXT MOVE. Predict is hawkish to use fed terminology but react is dovish. We really are all hawkish we just try to sugarcoat predict and call it react..why? Psycological...we don't want to be wrong.

 

"I shall word it a dovish way....based upon what the market has done (say s&p) emini what position would you take a position on a daily chart? You don't have to be precise. Say within the next 1 to say 4 days i will be short..or long...any takers? No? I didn't think so....

 

 

 

Any other takers?

 

 

I'll take a long with 2 at 1610.75 on a buy stop.Out of both by 1602.50

add one at 1635, 1640.5, 1644.5, 1647.75... will continue to add if certain conditions hold.

 

I will do this as soon as it hits 1610.75 if it does not go lower than 1594.5 first.

 

1620-1640 area will probably be a problem

[Patuca 13]

I'll take a long with 2 at 1610.75 on a buy stop.Out of both by 1602.50

add one at 1635, 1640.5, 1644.5, 1647.75... will continue to add if certain conditions hold.

 

I will do this as soon as it hits 1610.75 if it does not go lower than 1594.5 first.

 

1620-1640 area will probably be a problem

Ok but you probally won't get filled anytime soon:) on the other hand you might while i'm crying...but i doubt it. Are you saying your stop loss is 1602.50?

[MightyMouse 12]

Ok but you probally won't get filled anytime soon:) on the other hand you might while i'm crying...but i doubt it. Are you saying your stop loss is 1602.50?

 

When I get filled at 1610.75 my stop loss is 02.50. I could bail earlier if the conditions do not continue to be favorable. If the market never makes it to 10.75, then you are right I won't get long there. If it continues below Friday's low, I will adjust my entry down to get long with a buystop.

[bobcollett 10]

Well....Gold went all the way down to 1181 and then closed at 1234 on good volume

Is 1181 the LOW?

We have a few members who just look at a chart and can give an opinion / prediction

No indicators

Would one of them please step forward . Dont be shy.

My short was stopped out at 1205. Greed. 25 point given back. Thats quite a lot of money for me. So I need to get back in tomorrow.Thats actually tonight for the ASIA market.

What do you think.? Long, short, or stay out till the next TURN on 4th July?

More to follow later. No golf today..... studying Gold chart. :missy:

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Well....Gold went all the way down to 1181 and then closed at 1234 on good volume

Is 1181 the LOW?

We have a few members who just look at a chart and can give an opinion / prediction

No indicators

Would one of them please step forward . Dont be shy.

My short was stopped out at 1205. Greed. 25 point given back. Thats quite a lot of money for me. So I need to get back in tomorrow.Thats actually tonight for the ASIA market.

What do you think.? Long, short, or stay out till the next TURN on 4th July?

More to follow later. No golf today..... studying Gold chart. :missy:

regards

bobc

Capt Bob you cannot be referring to me, myself, or I since we use 4 indicators; vol, price action, and two MA. I took a peek at the gold chart. The gold chart is worth studying for short term trading. IMO it is screaming at us that demand (a significant amount) as come in and price is posed for a short term reversal. At least. One may wish to take the last daily bar and chop it in half and stick bottom of it at 1234 but just to the right of the 1234 bar. If price reaches the top of the chopped bar on good volume then a long position has the odds of being profitable IMO and one may want to consider buying gold.

 

Prediction: short term prices headed up. Confirmation will be the chopped bar. One may want to get in early i suppose as the reversal could run out of steam.

[bobcollett 10]

Heres the chart for Gold

Whats it going to do tomorrow?

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Heres the chart for Gold

Whats it going to do tomorrow?

bobc

capt Bob my previous chopped in half bar pst # 557 refers to swing trading on a daily chart. Now if I were looking at intraday trading on a 5 min chart say for just tomm i would jump in long on any break of the last high (i.e.) one or two tick break. Stop loss if one uses one I would place one tick below the low of the reversal bar i.e. The 1234 bar. Now here is what i would do: Exit one half of position on any two legged rise. I suspect twice the reward for the actual risk is probable. maybe even more. I would exit rest on any decent profit after the two legged rise. Of course, I would manage the trade. I would try to get at least a 1:1 r/r depending on ACTUAL risk, not initial risk (i.e. Stop loss) i would rejoice AFTER profitible trade is completed...cry if i get stopped out.....:helloooo:

 

PS Mighty mouse is sawing his golden golf club in pieces and selling out his gold. At exactly the wrong time. Could you talk to him? He will not listen to me. Few do.

Edited June 30, 2013 by Patuca

[bobcollett 10]

Capt Bob you cannot be referring to me, myself, or I since we use 4 indicators; vol, price action, and two MA. I took a peek at the gold chart. The gold chart is worth studying for short term trading. IMO it is screaming at us that demand (a significant amount) as come in and price is posed for a short term reversal. At least. One may wish to take the last daily bar and chop it in half and stick bottom of it at 1234 but just to the right of the 1234 bar. If price reaches the top of the chopped bar on good volume then a long position has the odds of being profitable IMO and one may want to consider buying gold.

 

Prediction: short term prices headed up. Confirmation will be the chopped bar. One may want to get in early i suppose as the reversal could run out of steam.

 

Hi Patuca

Yes . I was referring to you and you were not scared to reply , and reply with very good comments. You are a good person. I think just lonely , living on your own in the jungles of Belize.

So take half Fridays bar, that includes the tails ,....54 point / 2 = 27.Add 27 to 1234 = 1261, and if it breaks above that point, WITH GOOD VOLUME, we're in LONG.

Could work.

May I suggest an alternative

BUY on a CLOSE above the MA ,which is about 1251.WITH GOOD VOLUME

Either way GOLD is going up tomorrow.WITH GOOD VOLUME

BUT ,we have to wait a while for an entry signal .

And we have both put our heads on the block if we are wrong

 

More.......

Trend traders

The trend is DOWN... Dont go long.

 

Correlation

The DOW closed down. Gold will go UP

 

Technically (especially for Sun Trader)

GOLD is very oversold. BUY at the -30% level on the RSI

FIB level support is at 1153 and then at 1088

Big bullish reversal bar on Friday

 

Elliot wave traders......

You will lose your cash either way.

 

Fundamentals

Somebody is buying...BIG........kuokoman?

 

Astro

Lunar green period ....markets strengthen, Gold weakens.

We do have a TURN over the weekend which means Gold goes UP for a short while.

Next TURN date is July 4th.

 

TTT... Taylers Trading Technique

OMG Tomorrow is a SELL day .Wheres elovermer?

 

The Frank Sinatra Way ........my way

Buy for a short term gain IF Asia is up and there is volume.

kind regards

bobc

[ntrader 10]

Gold continued to decline and reached the lowest level since 8-25-2013. Over the last three months, gold prices have sunk 25.2% for investors. That's the 40th worst three-month drop.

[bobcollett 10]

Gold continued to decline and reached the lowest level since 8-25-2013. Over the last three months, gold prices have sunk 25.2% for investors. That's the 40th worst three-month drop.

 

Dear ntrader,

You got it right

The trend is down

So how are we going to make money with your info? :cool:

kind regards

bobc

PS To all those Gold Bulls, (thats everybody except Sun Trader and I ) this correction might be an opportunity to get OUT AND CUT YOUR LOSES.

[ntrader 10]

The trend is down, but for traders i believe that there will be a rebound next week and a fast trade can make some money..

[bobcollett 10]

The trend is down, but for traders i believe that there will be a rebound next week and a fast trade can make some money..

 

OK ntrader

Dont generalise.

Give us your view

If you are wrong ,so what.. You did not lose your life.

But you have to commit.

And YOU WILL LOSE MONEY to get it right.

Lets start with the entry point !!

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

.......

Technically (especially for Sun Trader)

GOLD is very oversold. BUY at the -30% level on the RSI

FIB level support is at 1153 and then at 1088

Big bullish reversal bar on Friday

........

For Gold bounce is very probable but not a bottom. The way I see it Friday was average up day - price or volume wise. And I prefer RSI 60/40 as a trend identifier but never B/S based on these levels.

 

Also the reverse for S&P, might be sideways to down a day or two, then uptrend to resume.

 

Which if I am right means Gold likely has further downside to come.

 

Watch Gold/SPX ratio and Gold/Silver ratio for heads-up.

[bobcollett 10]

I will agree with you that Gold will rise too. But, I am confident it might dip about 800 dollars first. Then maybe it will rise a bit before it falls again. So sure it can rise.

 

Hi Mm

Searching for my Beast Cycle post I read the above

I though only SunTrader and I were Gold bears

We have eminient company.

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

Hi Patuca,

RULE no.1

Trade with the trend

The S & P is UP ..... stay long

Gold is DOWN..........stay short

regards

bobc

PS Until Friday . Beast Cycle on Monday

 

And for all the disbelievers, the infidels,and thats everybody except zdo.

I warned you all about 20 th May. The TOP came a day later.

Heres a nice chart with accredition to platy of Planet Forcaster

regards

bobc

PS Very choppy markets coming in July

[bobcollett 10]

WARNING

Gold now at 1247

Close all Longs at maximum 1255. Thats about 20 points profit.

Leave something for the next guy.

Prepare to see a bottom by mid July, latest mid August.

regards

bobc

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi Mm

Searching for my Beast Cycle post I read the above

I though only SunTrader and I were Gold bears

We have eminient company.

regards

bobc

 

Bob,

 

Bear to the bone. Claws and all. Almost all commodities.

[MightyMouse 12]

I'll take a long with 2 at 1610.75 on a buy stop.Out of both by 1602.50

add one at 1635, 1640.5, 1644.5, 1647.75... will continue to add if certain conditions hold.

 

I will do this as soon as it hits 1610.75 if it does not go lower than 1594.5 first.

 

1620-1640 area will probably be a problem

 

I'm long at 1609.5, stop at 01.25. If it spits me out, I will get back in at a higher or lower price.

 

Patuca, I am assuming you are short.

[bobcollett 10]

Hi Mighty Mouse

Do you have any ideas on Coffee ?

I am thinking of a Long trade

I need to diversify a bit.

kind regards

bobc

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi Mighty Mouse

Do you have any ideas on Coffee ?

I am thinking of a Long trade

I need to diversify a bit.

kind regards

bobc

 

I love coffee. But, I don't trade it. I only drink it.

[Patuca 13]

I'm long at 1609.5, stop at 01.25. If it spits me out, I will get back in at a higher or lower price.

 

Patuca, I am assuming you are short.

:cheers: as concerns my trade in the ES am i allowed to move my stoploss? I made a tactical ERROR in stoploss placement and am getting close to being stopped out. Of course, i am asking before the stoploss gets hit.

[Patuca 13]

Well i can't wait long...nobody is on this thread but me..moving stoploss to 1653 before my previous stop is hit.

[Patuca 13]

Entry for long swing trade from DAY chart is 1262.5. Getting close.