Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

Recommended Posts

Don't know where you got the 54 number from, but that is yet another illustration of all your interventions: pointless and often out of context.

The wizard you would like to present yourself as should know that absolutely anything can and do happen in the markets, yet you are reacting as if a subjective support can stop a currency from falling further. Depending on time frame and tactic, you can be bullish gold and make money, you can be bearish and make money.

There is a trading contest going on here at TL. Dare take it for every one to judge your abilities by themselves. Until you've done that, I would advise you to keep your ramblings for yourself.

 

 

 

Don't get yer p..... in a bunch.

 

I put "to me" because it is obvious others including yourself see things differently. Nothing wrong with that. That is how I see things - my opinion for whatever it is worth and might very well be wrong.

 

But what is 54 points in a market presently trading in the high 1300's?

 

As attached chart shows (and I would think yours does as well) since the bottom on 5/20/13 there have been 7 green candle up closes and 6 red ones down closes. Presently gold is down 17.5% for the year.

 

The upmove you see took 13 days, then 1 day to correct 50%, which should tell you something about the strength behind it.

 

I see a sideways correction and then resumption of downmove.

 

Time will tell.

Edited by kuokam

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't know where you got the 54 number from, but that is yet another illustration of all your interventions: pointless and often out of context.

The wizard you would like to present yourself as should know that absolutely anything can and do happen in the markets, yet you are reacting as if a subjective support can stop a currency from falling further. Depending on time frame and tactic, you can be bullish gold and make money, you can be bearish and make money.

There is a trading contest going on here at TL. Dare take it for every one to judge your abilities by themselves. Until you've done that, I would advise you to keep your ramblings for yourself.

Opps $84 a typo, not $54. Ya got me.

 

Same difference.

 

$84 change in price for a market trading close to $1400 woopee

 

Now where did you get wizard from. :rofl:

 

All you gold bulls are so transparent. You get upset when price doesn't ONLY go up and up.

 

God forbide anyone says the chart looks bearish.

 

Can't be, never happen, got to be a conspiracy. The Fed, the big money, the exchanges.

 

They are all out to get little old me.

 

No problem. I will continue to post to others who feel it is worthwhile to have more than one opinion/cheerleader talking higher and higher without justification that makes sense.

 

While price goes lower and lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please leave me alone !

 

 

 

opps $84 a typo, not $54. Ya got me.

 

Same difference.

 

$84 change in price for a market trading close to $1400 woopee

 

now where did you get wizard from. :rofl:

 

All you gold bulls are so transparent. You get upset when price doesn't only go up and up.

 

God forbide anyone says the chart looks bearish.

 

Can't be, never happen, got to be a conspiracy. The fed, the big money, the exchanges.

 

They are all out to get little old me.

 

No problem. I will continue to post to others who feel it is worthwhile to have more than one opinion/cheerleader talking higher and higher without justification that makes sense.

 

While price goes lower and lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dear kuokam

Relax!!!

You gave your view.

SunTrader gave his view.

I also find SunTraders posts rather abrasive ,but thats his style and I dont think he is being personal.

 

NOW, Friday was a major turn in the market, and it turned DOWN.

You should be SHORT a few contracts, with a stop at 1423.

Only BUY above 1423 for a short term trade.

Only BUY above 1500 for an investment.

 

And be careful of the dollar

This weekends reports show investers bailing out of emerging markets and back into US

Bonds. That means they have to BUY dollars to make the trade.So I dont think the dollar will weaken. But as you rightly comment, its not certain.

 

And most important....... when the S & P goes up , Gold goes down

 

Some more...

India has increased their duty on Gold to reduce demand and help their Balance of payments.There is still huge demand for Gold , but until Paper Gold has sold off ,the trend is down.So the "edge "is to watch the Gold ETF's and see if they are getting smaller.

Here in South Africa , they are still the same size ,so I wonder if my theory is correct.

 

Kind regards

bobc

 

PS $84 is a massive move for short term traders

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.....

 

PS $84 is a massive move for short term traders

 

How do you define this?

 

I think 3-5 days.

 

But if someone missed the exact bottom on (May 20th) that represents $53 right there.

 

Truthfully now how do you see the price action since the low.

 

Uptrend or sideways?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How do you define this?

 

I think 3-5 days.

 

But if someone missed the exact bottom on (May 20th) that represents $53 right there.

 

Truthfully now how do you see the price action since the low.

 

Uptrend or sideways?

 

Hi SunTrader,

I know I'm a poor writer, but I cant be that bad.

I am SHORT.

There is no uptrend or sideways movement until I am stopped out at 1423.

Then I will start again.

And tomorrow morning, if Asia Gold closes down , I will add 2 more contracts.....SHORT

And I post my trades IN ADVANCE.

MORE....

When Gold falls , all marginal mines will fall faster than the majors.

So I will also short Harmony. Thats a stock in my market .

SELL 1000 Harmony at 10minutes after the OPEN for R2 a share profit.

 

regards

bobc

 

PS I dont make more money by declaring my trades in advance.

I crystalize my thinking. I force myself to find all the pros and cons.

I try to leave price action untill last, because thats the confuser.

It works.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi SunTrader,

I know I'm a poor writer, but I cant be that bad.

I am SHORT.

......

I must be a poor writer too.

 

Because I wasn't questioning if you were long or short.

 

Just what you thought the price action has been doing since the May 20th bottom.

 

Nevermind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My mistake, Sir !

I thought there were but civilized grown ups here.

 

Dear kuokam

Relax!!!

You gave your view.

SunTrader gave his view.

I also find SunTraders posts rather abrasive ,but thats his style and I dont think he is being personal.

 

NOW, Friday was a major turn in the market, and it turned DOWN.

You should be SHORT a few contracts, with a stop at 1423.

Only BUY above 1423 for a short term trade.

Only BUY above 1500 for an investment.

 

And be careful of the dollar

This weekends reports show investers bailing out of emerging markets and back into US

Bonds. That means they have to BUY dollars to make the trade.So I dont think the dollar will weaken. But as you rightly comment, its not certain.

 

And most important....... when the S & P goes up , Gold goes down

 

Some more...

India has increased their duty on Gold to reduce demand and help their Balance of payments.There is still huge demand for Gold , but until Paper Gold has sold off ,the trend is down.So the "edge "is to watch the Gold ETF's and see if they are getting smaller.

Here in South Africa , they are still the same size ,so I wonder if my theory is correct.

 

Kind regards

bobc

 

PS $84 is a massive move for short term traders

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold’s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

Gold?s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

People have blamed gold's 18 percent decline this year on many different factors: a lack of fear in the market, a bubble that has burst, talk that the Federal Reserve will soon end qualitative easing. But some market participants say the single biggest factor could be the Japanese yen.

 

"It is difficult to deny the strong correlation between the yen's decline and the consequent collapse in gold," said Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services managing director and contributor to CNBC.com's "Futures Now."

 

"As in comedy, timing is everything, and the announcement of drastic liquidity in measures in Japan, coinciding with massive long positions in the gold market, led to the exaggerated downward move in gold."

 

As the Bank of Japan's easing policy has led the yen to decline in value, the U.S. dollar has gained relative value. And a stronger dollar logically means that people are willing to pony up fewer of those dollars for gold, so gold prices should drop.

 

The trade seemed to have turned around last week, when the yen surged in value. But that wasn't enough for gold to make a serious run, even in the short term.

 

"At this point, even a stabilizing yen may not be enough to stop the negativity surrounding the gold market," Iuorio said. "When the catalyst disappears, it doesn't always mean that sentiment will revert back."

 

Worse, the yen's recent strength turned back around on Monday, ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan meeting announcement, which some think will lead to more yen weakness.

 

"In the last week or two, the markets have been disappointed by what dollar/yen has done," said Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com. "But I bought dollar/yen, because I think the Bank of Japan is scheduled to do something on asset purchases to reignite confidence."

 

 

In the longer term, Gordon believes that increasing U.S.Treasury yields will drive dollar/yen higher. He says a spike in yields would be good for gold if it reflected inflation fears. But since this move is due to expectations that the Fed will roll down bond purchases, Gordon says it will offer no help to the gold trade.

 

"This is an inflation-less recovery, and that leaves gold behind," Gordon said.

Gordon believes gold will be flat. But Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management takes an even dimmer view of gold, due to her expectations for the dollar.

 

"Simply because there's some uncertainty, you could see a bit of gold strength in the short term," Lien told CNBC.com. "But I believe the dollar is still headed higher, and for that reason, I'm still bearish on gold."

 

Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, agrees that dollar strength should continue to lead to gold weakness.

 

"All good things must come to an end, and the ominous specter of a stronger dollar, higher rates, stronger stock market and absence of inflation—all against the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating chart at the tail end of a decade-long bull market—strongly suggests that there are superior alternative investments than gold at the current time," Ross said.

 

"Now, if you want to keep some around so that you can call yourself an intellectual and sleep better at night," Ross added, "then be my guest."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold’s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

Gold?s Secret Enemy: The Yen

 

People have blamed gold's 18 percent decline this year on many different factors: a lack of fear in the market, a bubble that has burst, talk that the Federal Reserve will soon end qualitative easing. But some market participants say the single biggest factor could be the Japanese yen.

 

"It is difficult to deny the strong correlation between the yen's decline and the consequent collapse in gold," said Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services managing director and contributor to CNBC.com's "Futures Now."

 

"As in comedy, timing is everything, and the announcement of drastic liquidity in measures in Japan, coinciding with massive long positions in the gold market, led to the exaggerated downward move in gold."

 

As the Bank of Japan's easing policy has led the yen to decline in value, the U.S. dollar has gained relative value. And a stronger dollar logically means that people are willing to pony up fewer of those dollars for gold, so gold prices should drop.

 

The trade seemed to have turned around last week, when the yen surged in value. But that wasn't enough for gold to make a serious run, even in the short term.

 

"At this point, even a stabilizing yen may not be enough to stop the negativity surrounding the gold market," Iuorio said. "When the catalyst disappears, it doesn't always mean that sentiment will revert back."

 

Worse, the yen's recent strength turned back around on Monday, ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan meeting announcement, which some think will lead to more yen weakness.

 

"In the last week or two, the markets have been disappointed by what dollar/yen has done," said Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com. "But I bought dollar/yen, because I think the Bank of Japan is scheduled to do something on asset purchases to reignite confidence."

 

 

In the longer term, Gordon believes that increasing U.S.Treasury yields will drive dollar/yen higher. He says a spike in yields would be good for gold if it reflected inflation fears. But since this move is due to expectations that the Fed will roll down bond purchases, Gordon says it will offer no help to the gold trade.

 

"This is an inflation-less recovery, and that leaves gold behind," Gordon said.

Gordon believes gold will be flat. But Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management takes an even dimmer view of gold, due to her expectations for the dollar.

 

"Simply because there's some uncertainty, you could see a bit of gold strength in the short term," Lien told CNBC.com. "But I believe the dollar is still headed higher, and for that reason, I'm still bearish on gold."

 

Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, agrees that dollar strength should continue to lead to gold weakness.

 

"All good things must come to an end, and the ominous specter of a stronger dollar, higher rates, stronger stock market and absence of inflation—all against the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating chart at the tail end of a decade-long bull market—strongly suggests that there are superior alternative investments than gold at the current time," Ross said.

 

"Now, if you want to keep some around so that you can call yourself an intellectual and sleep better at night," Ross added, "then be my guest."

 

Hi Sun Trader

Have you back tested this Yen/Gold correlation to see if it has worked before?

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Sun Trader

Have you back tested this Yen/Gold correlation to see if it has worked before?

regards

bobc

Worked like a charm since last Oct excluding latest yen drop but not so good in the past (not shown on chart):

YenGold.thumb.png.42af61004f6c92e53f36dc08dca806f8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:roll eyes::roll eyes:

How about that Uptrend. :did I say that?:

 

:ciao: to that for awhile longer.

 

:)

LOL gloating again eh? Just remember every dog has his day....of course it has to rise (indices) ..it has to test high before the plunge...once the plunge starts then pm will soon after start rising...you just wait and see you little worm..:roll eyes: Edited by Patuca

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody attempting to catch the falling knife yet? Has the giddy rush of fed policies evaporated yet out of the markets or shall the knife continuing falling chopping off fingers as it slides through the hands of traders and investors? How much more bloodletting before the irrational enthusiam evaporates..... to more or less quote a previous fed ..um... leader...

 

You ever just wonder what the smart money does on days like today? After all they ..well..sort of engineered ...the catastrophic rise....didn't they? Many traders were running on high octane...now they are blowing out bad toxic gasses...guess who is laughing?

Edited by Patuca

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When the Dow falls for 6 days in a row, then Gold will turn UP.:roll eyes:

I have closed all my shorts..... very nice profit. Looking at buying a new horse. ;)

And I am sure, I have left some money on the table.

Time to take a break: 2c:

Tomorrow is the solstice

Dont be greedy

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL it is actually the exact opposite...gold..silver ARE bullish. Prices are being manipulated down with intention. Once the manipulation ends it will turn up and guess who will have it and who will be laughing.......?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.