Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Patuca 13]

No Bear Market In Gold -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org

[Patuca 13]

Gangster State America -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org

[kuokam 10]

Jail them for their cupidity, betrayal and arrogance!

 

 

Gangster State America -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org

[tupapa 10]

On the spec trades, as ‘planned’ at

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-44.html#post179017

was stopped out last Thu near 22.30

and, as planned, took on three loads at ~21.67 and one at ~20.67 last night – each load scaled arithmetically larger than previous…

Have two more scaled load limit orders at 19.67 and 18.67 to reach full allocation for this trade. May have to wait a while… or later, may have put stops above (oco’ing the limits) to fill the allocation instead ... I remain overall bullish on PM’s … but this ‘correction’ may last for some time… it has already become a long drawn out affair... largely a rotation out of etf's, etc. into physicals

 

…

 

all the best.

 

zdo

 

 

Hello Zdo, is your long silver a long term bet? What is your plan regarding trade management and do you mind sharing your rationale?

 

Also is there a particular reason why you buy silver instead of gold?

 

After yesterday's rally, I see very good support in both gold and Silver and I am bullish.

[SunTrader 10]

Jail them for their cupidity, betrayal and arrogance!

More like stupidity.

 

I guess Hunt brothers example is ancient or forgotten news.

[Larry1234 10]

Some things to remember amid the volatility of the gold price...

 

When volatility prevails in the gold market, I love seeing so many different opinions because it promotes critical thinking and healthy markets, writes Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of US Global Investors.

 

But because gold is unlike any other commodity, many perspectives can be extreme, such as "golden Freud" who take pleasure in gold bugs' pain.

 

With this in mind, here are four facts to remember about gold that should help neutralize those extreme bullish and bearish views.

 

Please check the link given below for more info -

 

Gold Bullion: 4 Fundamental Facts | Gold News

[SIUYA 11]

from Larrys post....thanks.

I thought this was interesting - given everyone keeps thinking the run up in gold is based on the USD and the continual curse of the fiat currency - and yes of course there is probably some element of truth there.....but its amazing how then people think everything is based on this when if its true that half of the actual demand comes from two places outside the USA, it makes you wonder if those who think they know what is driving the gold price really have any idea. (which is why i am not such a big believer in the grand manipulations)

 

3. A lack of love from the Love Trade is affecting fundamentals

 

The Love Trade, on the other hand, is the buying of gold out of an enduring love for gold. Two emerging countries that make up almost half of gold demand—China and India—have had a long relationship with the precious metal that is intertwined with their culture, religion and economy. With half of the world's population buying gold for their friends and family, it's important to put into context what is happening in their countries.

[kuokam 10]

Sure you can print more (ETF) gold

 

Some things to remember amid the volatility of the gold price...

 

When volatility prevails in the gold market, I love seeing so many different opinions because it promotes critical thinking and healthy markets, writes Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of US Global Investors.

 

But because gold is unlike any other commodity, many perspectives can be extreme, such as "golden Freud" who take pleasure in gold bugs' pain.

 

With this in mind, here are four facts to remember about gold that should help neutralize those extreme bullish and bearish views.

 

Please check the link given below for more info -

 

Gold Bullion: 4 Fundamental Facts | Gold News

[SunTrader 10]

Some things to remember amid the volatility of the gold price.

........

With this in mind, here are four facts to remember about gold that should help neutralize those extreme bullish and bearish views.

Then proceeds to point out only the bullish points.

 

Well what can you expect from a site that touts Gold. :doh:

[SunTrader 10]

"And research has found that the price of gold moves in near-lockstep to each increase in the Fed's balance sheet."

 

Well unless you count the last two years!

 

:rofl:

[SunTrader 10]

Listen to Marc Faber - well-known longterm Gold Bull - that he is buying Gold and will continue buying more Gold but that he doesn't, repeat doesn't believe in the manipulation conspiracy theories.

 

Funny though that he points out Gold is up 400% from its 1999 low but then say S&P 500 is only up 2% above its alltime high. An apples to watermelon comparison taking one from its low and one from its high. Meaning only Gold buyers catch low entries.

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/dr-doom-government-away-gold-125241493.html

[Patuca 13]

from Larrys post....thanks.

I thought this was interesting - given everyone keeps thinking the run up in gold is based on the USD and the continual curse of the fiat currency - and yes of course there is probably some element of truth there.....but its amazing how then people think everything is based on this when if its true that half of the actual demand comes from two places outside the USA, it makes you wonder if those who think they know what is driving the gold price really have any idea. (which is why i am not such a big believer in the grand manipulations)

 

3. A lack of love from the Love Trade is affecting fundamentals

 

The Love Trade, on the other hand, is the buying of gold out of an enduring love for gold. Two emerging countries that make up almost half of gold demand—China and India—have had a long relationship with the precious metal that is intertwined with their culture, religion and economy. With half of the world's population buying gold for their friends and family, it's important to put into context what is happening in their countries.

that is the very reason it is being manipulated BECAUSE of the fundamentals. read #4 again carefully....

[SIUYA 11]

oh I thought the manipulation was all about the USD and the evil FED, because that all you generally hear from the gold bulls. But we dont want the facts to ruin a good story.

 

Whereas when you throw in the actual fundamentals, then it might actually give some credibility to the story....

 

but even then with fundamentals all being bullish, there are plenty of instruments that go down in price - why - (and looking at point 4 it puts it into perspective)....maybe the reason something looks 'oversold' is because it is overvalued......

 

If ever the last straw in an argument when you know you are clinging desperately at backing up a belief......use the oversold, over bought argument....cause that always adds balance to the argument! (you know its cheap/expensive because its oversold/overbought :doh:)

 

.......................

dont worry Patucca, I am all for people buying gold, it makes sense in the right amount and at the right time - i just dont buy into the extreme gold bugs and the manipulation and conspiracy theories that so often abound with it.

Just because the gold market has not crashed like this before does not mean that it is now cheap (just cheaper), it does not mean that it now offers value (just better value than higher prices), does not mean that it the crash was caused by a manipulated move. (Thats not evidence - its probably more evidence of a bubble bursting if anything)

 

all depends on trading what you see and not what you believe.

Gold is certainly at interesting levels now, especially if it consolidates around here.

[MightyMouse 12]

 

Gold is certainly at interesting levels now, especially if it consolidates around here.

 

Yes, new buying will provide pavement for a smooth ride down to sub $1200.

[kuokam 10]

Amen brother !

My understanding of gold fundies :

1/ the USA are the by far the greatest owner of gold of all kinds;

2/ they have decided to unload some, for whatever reason;

3/ logically the prices drop.

 

 

 

 

Yes, new buying will provide pavement for a smooth ride down to sub $1200.

[Patuca 13]

oh I thought the manipulation was all about the USD and the evil FED, because that all you generally hear from the gold bulls. But we dont want the facts to ruin a good story.

 

it both...fundamentals AND the dollar.....you don't see that...i understand that....but see the fundamentals are too good and will wreck the Feds use of the dollar so they had to try make the fundamentals look bad...this move down was manipulative..out of the norm..and it will come bak to bite them terribly...in may not be this year..it may be next year...but p.m. will come back hard and will finish the race much like secretariat did in the belmont stakes.

 

He first beat Sham in the kentucky derby in record time...2 weeks later he beat sham in the preakness. June the 9 1973 he slammed sham and the rest smashing the world record and and winning by 31 lenghts. Many feel that record may never be broken...

 

Precious metals are secretariat.. The dollar is SHAM........

[Patuca 13]

oh I thought the manipulation was all about the USD and the evil FED, because that all you generally hear from the gold bulls. But we dont want the facts to ruin a good story.

 

it is both...fundamentals AND the dollar.....coupled with manipulation...you don't see that...i understand that....but see the fundamentals are too good and will wreck the Feds use of the dollar so they had to try make the fundamentals look bad...this move down was manipulative..out of the norm..and it will come bak to bite them terribly...in may not be this year..it may be next year...but p.m. will come back hard and will finish the race much like secretariat did in the belmont stakes.

 

He first beat Sham in the kentucky derby in record time...2 weeks later he beat sham in the preakness. June the 9 1973 he slammed sham and the rest smashing the world record and and winning by 31 lenghts. Many feel that record may never be broken...

 

Precious metals are Secretariat.. The dollar is SHAM........

[SunTrader 10]

From a Bloomberg story:

 

"Investors sold 467 metric tons valued at about $20.9 billion from exchange-traded products this year as some lost faith in gold as a store of value amid an improving U.S. economy and rally in equities."

 

Isn't this a ridiculous way of putting things?

 

Lost faith in gold as a store of value so they ........ sold their paper Gold. :doh:

 

:rofl:

 

Holding for the long term makes sense - if you also get in at a good price. Anything else is trading and Bloomberg doesn't have a clue about that, unless they tapped into their customer's trading terminals. Oh wait they do that now. Still don't have a clue.

[Vinayak 10]

Gold: Near Term Puts

 

Gold is once again on the rise, but this is just a blip in my opinion. The shiny precious metal is on an uptrend and has hit a near term resistance point. The technical indicators are bearish in multiple time frames and it could dip below $1350 as soon as next week.

 

Equities should regain their upward momentum next week after a rough time last week which was understandable given the elevated levels.

[Vinayak 10]

More Details: Gold Bearish

 

Gold/silver price forecasts for 2013 have been lowered by market analysts. The reasons are weak fundamentals and less demand from investors.

 

The business cycle has been good for bulls and this has put downward pressure on gold/silver prices. There has been a lot of growth in the global economy along with rising nominal yields. There hasn't been much inflation and so investors aren't that impressive with the hedging effects of buying gold/silver.

 

I could see silver prices going below $20 per ounce in the coming months and gold should fall below $1350 in the next couple of weeks.

[SunTrader 10]

.......

 

I could see silver prices going below $20 per ounce in the coming months and gold should fall below $1350 in the next couple of weeks.

Both sooner than that, especially Silver.

[kuokam 10]

A bullish view is not to be dismissed altogether:

 

- We have just retraced 50 % of last up move;

- I see a hidden divergence on the rsi, which is well below 30:

- $ is weakening across the board.

[SunTrader 10]

A bullish view is not to be dismissed altogether:

 

- We have just retraced 50 % of last up move;

- I see a hidden divergence on the rsi, which is well below 30:

- $ is weakening across the board.

 

We have retraced 50% of sideways move not up move.

 

Divergences and high/low oscillator readings don't mean much to me. I look at them but where we are in trends, wave counts and price action itself are far more important - to me.

 

Dollar index is at support (see chart) eurusd and gbpusd are at resistance, audusd and nzdusd both strong downtrends, usdchf and usdjpy at support, usdcad above support so in no way do I see overall dollar weakness currently or anytime soon? The opposite.

[kuokam 10]

"To me... to me..." I was not personally addressing you and yourself, Sir.

I generally fail to understand you. Especially, how can something that hasn't gone anywhere retrace 50%? A 84 full points move is not what I consider a sideways walk.

Anyway it is my point of view. Everybody is responsible for his analysis and the ensuing decisions. No need for arguments, the market is there to tell the right.

 

We have retraced 50% of sideways move not up move.

 

Divergences and high/low oscillator readings don't mean much to me. I look at them but where we are in trends, wave counts and price action itself are far more important - to me.

 

Dollar index is at support (see chart) eurusd and gbpusd are at resistance, audusd and nzdusd both strong downtrends, usdchf and usdjpy at support, usdcad above support so in no way do I see overall dollar weakness currently or anytime soon? The opposite.

Edited June 8, 2013 by kuokam

[SunTrader 10]

"To me... to me..." I was not personally addressing you and yourself, Sir.

I generally fail to understand you. Especially, how can something that hasn't gone anywhere retrace 50%? A 84 full points move is not what I consider a sideways walk.

Anyway it is my point of view. Everybody is responsible for his analysis and the ensuing decisions. No need for arguments, the market is there to tell the right.

Don't get yer p..... in a bunch.

 

I put "to me" because it is obvious others including yourself see things differently. Nothing wrong with that. That is how I see things - my opinion for whatever it is worth and might very well be wrong.

 

But what is 54 points in a market presently trading in the high 1300's?

 

As attached chart shows (and I would think yours does as well) since the bottom on 5/20/13 there have been 7 green candle up closes and 6 red ones down closes. Presently gold is down 17.5% for the year.

 

The upmove you see took 13 days, then 1 day to correct 50%, which should tell you something about the strength behind it.

 

I see a sideways correction and then resumption of downmove.

 

Time will tell.