Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Patuca 13]

Mr schiff also predicts another crash coming soon....he was right the first time before the collapse 2007 and he sounded the warning in 2005/2006 ( for a greater understanding watch the video clips ..all three).......will he be right this time? he was laughed at first time..will they laugh this time? are you laughing?

 

Will Peter Schiff Be Right Again?? (buy, sell, money, investing) - City-Data Forum

 

 

 

[ame=http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YW9f2KsyaOI&feature=related]Peter Schiff Owning Everyone's Ass on C-span - YouTube[/ame]

[Patuca 13]

Sorry about the duplicate posts. Not sure how it happened.

[bobcollett 10]

Sorry about the duplicate posts. Not sure how it happened.

 

No problem Patuca,

Sticky fingers.......

I assume Mr Skiff is discussing the general market and not Gold.(Deaf, cant hear the video)

When is this crash going to happen? No dates are given.

Or do we just sell all our long term positions and wait, watching the market make new highs for another 3 months.

kind regards

bobc

[SIUYA 11]

LOL that is a good one. ...another song...you gotta know when to fold up....you gotta know when to catch that...falling knife.

 

yes from my own subjective opinion and experience - there is a time and a place for it....unfortunately they are very rare and too often traders fall into the trap of trying to do it all the time. Thats a tough game.

There are only a few times an instrument (maybe once a year?) really provides a good opportunity to do this IMHO (clearly depends on your time frame and expectations) .

 

These are the times when if you are on the wrong side of the trade, (meaning you did not cut early) and you get that feeling of 'I want to puke in a bucket - i feel so sick, i should have cut this a long time ago' - thats the day when if you can put yourself in the long traders shoes, it might be worth having a go at catching a falling knife.....to be able to do this you clearly have to have been in that position at some stage to recognize what it would feel like.

Maybe Patuccca a new thread on attributes to keep an eye out for when applying the falling knife safety trick?

 

As for Gold IMHO - it had it the other day, at <1350....and now the bounce has occurred and subsequently fallen again - this is not the time to catch it - the reason being - its not a falling knife - its undecided as to continue down, or consolidate, etc here. My personal preference would be to sell rallies now, or hold longer term shorts from an unbiased immediate trading point of view....but unless you are in the habit of looking for higher lows and do that well....this is not a falling knife anymore.

[Patuca 13]

No problem Patuca,

Sticky fingers.......

I assume Mr Skiff is discussing the general market and not Gold.(Deaf, cant hear the video)

When is this crash going to happen? No dates are given.

Or do we just sell all our long term positions and wait, watching the market make new highs for another 3 months.

kind regards

bobc

nobody knows when the crash will take place... just that it will happen and is imminent. It could happen tomm or anytime. as usual you have to buy his book/newsletter to know how to save yourself...same song...same story...vender b.s. but b.s. doesn't really matter if what vender vends is true and useful...in general you want longterm funds is such instruments that will do good in such trying times...i.e. Some gold (good buy now..for investing not trading) ...some silver...some smokes...people will do almost anything for smokes..lots of soap...keep your pea shooters close by.....sell the golf clubs..won't need them...sorry MM...put some in currencies not the dollar..it is the bubble that will pop...where you are at you may keep the golf clubs..MM golfing days are soon to be over...he better play a few more rounds with his bent golfing apparatus...

[Patuca 13]

yes from my own subjective opinion and experience - there is a time and a place for it....unfortunately they are very rare and too often traders fall into the trap of trying to do it all the time. Thats a tough game.

There are only a few times an instrument (maybe once a year?) really provides a good opportunity to do this IMHO (clearly depends on your time frame and expectations) .

 

These are the times when if you are on the wrong side of the trade, (meaning you did not cut early) and you get that feeling of 'I want to puke in a bucket - i feel so sick, i should have cut this a long time ago' - thats the day when if you can put yourself in the long traders shoes, it might be worth having a go at catching a falling knife.....to be able to do this you clearly have to have been in that position at some stage to recognize what it would feel like.

Maybe Patuccca a new thread on attributes to keep an eye out for when applying the falling knife safety trick?

 

As for Gold IMHO - it had it the other day, at <1350....and now the bounce has occurred and subsequently fallen again - this is not the time to catch it - the reason being - its not a falling knife - its undecided as to continue down, or consolidate, etc here. My personal preference would be to sell rallies now, or hold longer term shorts from an unbiased immediate trading point of view....but unless you are in the habit of looking for higher lows and do that well....this is not a falling knife anymore.

gold is only a falling knife from an investor frame of reference..now is a good time for me to be buying IMO but i would never advise anyone either way on it..everybody has to make up their own mind and pull their own little red wagon....wagons get stuck in the mud...wheels fall off...indians attack..etc..many many scenarios...the selloff was bogus in my opinion..to prop the failing bubble...bubble...bubblier mr dollar whose fate is soon to POP.... nothing has changed in fundamentals..same ole political b.s. Nothing to fix underlying problem...all this means, at least for me, gold...silver shall rise again and when they do better have you seatbelts fastened for the ride....of course i could be wrong:)

[Patuca 13]

attributes to keep an eye out for when applying the falling knife safety trick?

 

you have to believe the markets are manipulated very single day....mr brooks says they arent..mr taylor says they are....imo they are down to the tick level...it used be one could outsmart the bastards at the tick level...hft has sort of ...well messed that action up to some degree..at least for older traders..younger traders...scalpers..with deft fingers and bright new gray matter that can read the DOM well can still beat em...but for people like me that ....it ..well..takes awhile to get my pea shooter out of the holster..how in the sam hell am i gonna read and play the dom? By the time i reach over to get my cup of coffee i done lost a bundle.. I cannot sit there like i got a corncob up my ass for 6 hours.

 

so, you have to believe markets are manipulated..this is key to finding falling knifes and oportune times to snatch them out of the air. do we really believe the markets are free and all is fair?

Edited May 16, 2013 by Patuca

[bobcollett 10]

I agree with Patuca on the manipulation of the markets.

Have a look at the volume on the attached chart

For years volume was a number which suddenly changed when Germany asked New York for their physical gold to be returned .And that hugh volume is still there.

Who is buying so much and who is selling MORE.?

I accept I will eventually be screwed, but in the mean time I am making money.

 

The trend is DOWN. I can guess some support at about 1375. (See chart)

Technically the price is opening high and closing low. (See chart)

So we dont need to guess when the change in trend happens.

A nice Doji would be great , otherwise an open low and a close high. ROCKET SCIENCE

 

Fundamentally,until we see a change in interest rates, which means QE has ended, Equities are UP. And Japan has another year of QE ahead.!!!!!!!!!!

So my previous post stating an inverse correlation between Gold and Equities remains.(Unproven) Gold will go lower while equities rise.

Moral of the story....please wait a bit before you buy Patuca.

kind regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

I agree with Patuca on the manipulation of the markets.

Have a look at the volume on the attached chart

For years volume was a number which suddenly changed when Germany asked New York for their physical gold to be returned .And that hugh volume is still there.

Who is buying so much and who is selling MORE.?

I accept I will eventually be screwed, but in the mean time I am making money.

 

The trend is DOWN. I can guess some support at about 1375. (See chart)

Technically the price is opening high and closing low. (See chart)

So we dont need to guess when the change in trend happens.

A nice Doji would be great , otherwise an open low and a close high. ROCKET SCIENCE

 

Fundamentally,until we see a change in interest rates, which means QE has ended, Equities are UP. And Japan has another year of QE ahead.!!!!!!!!!!

So my previous post stating an inverse correlation between Gold and Equities remains.(Unproven) Gold will go lower while equities rise.

Moral of the story....please wait a bit before you buy Patuca.

kind regards

bobc

yes when we see interest rates begin to rise ...get ready..for the sh$t to hit the fan..it will happen fast this time...i agree Qe is driving equities it certainly ain't babies as, at least, americans don't have enough to drive the economy from our side of the world...mr dent says many boomers will start saving instead of consuming and when that happens with al three waves of BB then we have big problems...have not read mr schiffs book..may do so to get greater understanding...

[Patuca 13]

Why the drop in gold?

Edited May 16, 2013 by Patuca

[Patuca 13]

why the drop in gold?

 

Why Is Gold Crashing? | Zero Hedge

[Vinayak 10]

It does appear to be so for the moment at least. Gold futures are still down even as there was some weak macro data from the U.S. and a pullback in the USD. There has been a lot of strength in equities recently and the climbing USD contributed to the metal's losing streak, which has cut prices by a total of 6% in six sessions.

[SunTrader 10]

For the moment?

 

How about since Sept 2011 !

[bobcollett 10]

Heres an idea for Silver traders

Every day in this Down cycle Silver opens GAP DOWN , and then closes the gap over the course of the day

You can sell the close and buy it back next day at the open. Bit risky for me.

More important,the first day there is no opening gap, get ready to close your shorts.

This is my own idea so dont bet your house on it........!!!

 

And for those of you swapping your GOLD for Silver.... dead man walking.

regards

bobc

[MightyMouse 12]

Heres an idea for Silver traders

Every day in this Down cycle Silver opens GAP DOWN , and then closes the gap over the course of the day

You can sell the close and buy it back next day at the open. Bit risky for me.

More important,the first day there is no opening gap, get ready to close your shorts.

This is my own idea so dont bet your house on it........!!!

 

And for those of you swapping your GOLD for Silver.... dead man walking.

regards

bobc

 

Or, short the pb to prior day low and hold.

[OptionTiger 10]

My personal opinion is daily and weekly charts are bullish but 4h charts are bearish (heading to 1709 and 1698)...However I don't think that gold will fall below 1600...at least for now...

 

Gold is bearish ...check it out now, seems far away from 1700. Gold's historical run is over for now, but in the longer timeframe, we could see an uptick again.

[bobcollett 10]

Is this feasable?

The major EFT Gold Fund holders, the likes of Soros etc, have decided that their paper gold is not safe. It might not even exist!!.

They would like to see the real Macoy in the safe.

So they are selling their paper and buying back the physical.

Hence the the big sell off and at the same time a physical shortage.

regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Gold is bearish ...check it out now, seems far away from 1700. Gold's historical run is over for now, but in the longer timeframe, we could see an uptick again.

we will see a RUN BACK UP IMO...its bearish because of the naked short selling most likely instigated by central bank (aka federal reserve)....to drive traders and investors out of P.M. to prop up dollar ...as the place to be..so more confidence in dollar...only reason dollar is still alive because it is reserve curr of the world..QE devalues dollars but central bank does QE to try and stimulate economy..fed can create all money necessary to accomplish its goals but one thing it CANNOT DO is stop the world from running from the dollar...once the rest of the world decides to break ties with dollar then the big ponzi scheme is over...they try to delay that from happening but the cannot stop it...demand for real gold and silver is still there...all this naked shorting is designed to drive people out of p.m. By propping dollar up that is being devalued because of QE which fed feels is necessary to keep economy going...sooner or later all this naked short selling has to end and when it does prices will rise again and somebody is gonna take a big crap in their pants...its all manipulated..one day soon it will not work any more...then what you gonna do?

[Patuca 13]

Is this feasable?

The major EFT Gold Fund holders, the likes of Soros etc, have decided that their paper gold is not safe. It might not even exist!!.

They would like to see the real Macoy in the safe.

So they are selling their paper and buying back the physical.

Hence the the big sell off and at the same time a physical shortage.

regards

bobc

of course...such as that is happening as we type..and of course no real gold back this paper b.s....doesn't exist...they all know it is soon over for dollar..even central bank knows it...so they are desperate for any "real" wealth...guess what will happen when they have transferred out most of the "real wealth" from weak holders into strong hands...same song...same story...same dance as always...price will suddenly become alive and run north....in effect they will have screwed the small investor once again..modus operandi.... so what shall the small investor and holder of physical p.m. do? ...what should he do? to say it is over is to play right into their hand and trap...this is exactly what they want...see THEY want the real wealth and leave small investor/trader with worthless dollars...its all manipulated.....markets are not fair nor free....never have been..its a rigged game..always has been...you have to detect how they are rigging it...do their best to keep "real" vol from traders and investor...leak stories....naked short selling...do what basically amounts to insider trading...because they are the insiders...you or i go to jail for such nonsense...they get rich off such nonsense:)...of course all this is an opinion...it could be wrong:rofl: :rofl::embarassed:

[SIUYA 11]

funny how no one seemed to mind when the paper traders where making an asset allocation to gold without any intention to take physical and as a result they pushed price up....

now its all manipulation and conspiracy, market is rigged.....

Remind anyone of 2008 when the banks wanted a short selling ban?:doh:

[Patuca 13]

funny how no one seemed to mind when the paper traders where making an asset allocation to gold without any intention to take physical and as a result they pushed price up....

now its all manipulation and conspiracy, market is rigged.....

Remind anyone of 2008 when the banks wanted a short selling ban?:doh:

LOL .....are you saying it isn't rigged? no manipulation?

[bobcollett 10]

funny how no one seemed to mind when the paper traders where making an asset allocation to gold without any intention to take physical and as a result they pushed price up....

now its all manipulation and conspiracy, market is rigged.....

Remind anyone of 2008 when the banks wanted a short selling ban?:doh:

 

Hi SIUYA

Not quite sure what you are getting at?

What have the banks short selling ban got to do with paper Gold?

What do you think has caused this BIG GOLD BEAR MARKET?

kind regards

bobc

[SIUYA 11]

Well everyone is making the distinction between paper gold and physical gold now as it comes down and people are complaining its short sellers pushing the market down......

Well most of the buying and expansion in gold buyers in recent years has come from the paper buyers.....they were asset allocators and not interested in taking physical delivery. Some did....but most used ETFs and futures and rolled them etc.

 

The analogy with the short sellers are to blame is because it always comes out when a market goes down - even when the short sellers make up a very small percentage of the overall volumes, they are never patted on the back when providing liquidity when the market is rising and when it comes to futures - someone has to be selling them for the buyers to get hold of the opposite position. (In 2008 there where equity bans on short sellers who were blamed for the market demise - all a load of BS)

 

A shortage in the underlying is certainly possible - it is called a short squeeze (oil had one in Feb 2009 from memory on the last day a big spike in the futures over the next month), but i think if you checked a lot of the paper ETFs will be rolled as per usual and it will only be if there is a massive demand for physical to be delivered - if this occurs, as some suspect the exchanges may turn around and say well lets allow these to be cash settled.....plus do you think people will be able to demand gold when some of the larger players say here is a cash settlement - take it or leave it. To me it would appear the market is not overly concerned as if it was the spreads between the physical and the spot would have really blown out - not just be out of kilter a bit.

It does not explain the drop of late....this to me is simply the game of musical chairs for which gold is just one (as are many instruments) when the music stops.

Gold is just another store of value among plenty that people get a little too religious about.

These as in most days the simplest survival technique is diversification and an ability to live in different countries.....cause that gold you have in a vault in Switzerland, or have built your back yard wall out if is worthless if you cant get to it.

 

...and no I am not a believer in big market manipulations - granted there are some small variations that can occur but if the last few years have taught us anything those who are supposedly doing the manipulations are not manipulating the markets but the laws and the politicians....far easier and less costly.

 

for some balance....

http://www.bullionbaron.com/2013/05/rumors-of-my-death-have-been-greatly.html

Edited May 17, 2013 by SIUYA

[bobcollett 10]

 

 

It does not explain the drop of late....this to me is simply the game of musical chairs for which gold is (as are many instruments) when the music stops.

.

Bullion Baron: "Rumors Of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated" - Paper Gold

 

Hi SIUYA

Thank you for a comprehensive answer rather than some of the "One Liners" I get.

I dont quite agree with your musical chairs analogy

I think there is more to the story.

At the end of the "day" ,I am trying to see a change in trend, so you alternative view is welcome.

kind regards

bobc

[Patuca 13]

Well everyone is making the distinction between paper gold and physical gold now as it comes down and people are complaining its short sellers pushing the market down......

Well most of the buying and expansion in gold buyers in recent years has come from the paper buyers.....they were asset allocators and not interested in taking physical delivery. Some did....but most used ETFs and futures and rolled them etc.

 

The analogy with the short sellers are to blame is because it always comes out when a market goes down - even when the short sellers make up a very small percentage of the overall volumes, they are never patted on the back when providing liquidity when the market is rising and when it comes to futures - someone has to be selling them for the buyers to get hold of the opposite position. (In 2008 there where equity bans on short sellers who were blamed for the market demise - all a load of BS)

 

A shortage in the underlying is certainly possible - it is called a short squeeze (oil had one in Feb 2009 from memory on the last day a big spike in the futures over the next month), but i think if you checked a lot of the paper ETFs will be rolled as per usual and it will only be if there is a massive demand for physical to be delivered - if this occurs, as some suspect the exchanges may turn around and say well lets allow these to be cash settled.....plus do you think people will be able to demand gold when some of the larger players say here is a cash settlement - take it or leave it. To me it would appear the market is not overly concerned as if it was the spreads between the physical and the spot would have really blown out - not just be out of kilter a bit.

It does not explain the drop of late....this to me is simply the game of musical chairs for which gold is just one (as are many instruments) when the music stops.

Gold is just another store of value among plenty that people get a little too religious about.

These as in most days the simplest survival technique is diversification and an ability to live in different countries.....cause that gold you have in a vault in Switzerland, or have built your back yard wall out if is worthless if you cant get to it.

 

...and no I am not a believer in big market manipulations - granted there are some small variations that can occur but if the last few years have taught us anything those who are supposedly doing the manipulations are not manipulating the markets but the laws and the politicians....far easier and less costly.

 

for some balance....

Bullion Baron: "Rumors Of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated" - Paper Gold

thanks for the heads up. What a relief to know that there are no big market manipulations..are there like um ...small manipulations once in a while? Did mr livermore ever manipulate the markets? ..or are you saying there never has been any big time manipulations...ever..ever?