Gold Bullish or Bearish

[SunTrader 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

Lack of interest? :shrug:

 

A general comment I suppose, but as for me yes I'd rather trade.

 

But to get "technical" are we there yet - Gold in a downtrend?

[DbPhoenix 42]

  SunTrader said:

A general comment I suppose, but as for me yes I'd rather trade.

 

But to get "technical" are we there yet - Gold in a downtrend?

 

Out of the trading range, yes. And if one had been paying attention to what price was doing on the 8th and 9th, he would have been short on the 10th, not looking for a 20pt upside on the 12th.

 

Since you asked.

 

Now, of course, we're holding in a previous trading range that formed some time ago, but that is of course of no interest here, so whatever happens will likely be a surprise to those who aren't prepared.

[SunTrader 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

Out of the trading range, yes. And if one had been paying attention to what price was doing on the 8th and 9th, he would have been short on the 10th, not looking for a 20pt upside on the 12th.

 

Since you asked.

 

Now, of course, we're holding in a previous trading range that formed some time ago, but that is of course of no interest here, so whatever happens will likely be a surprise to those who aren't prepared.

Oh I was paying attention to PA, lets just say a wee bit before those dates.

 

As I've mentioned previously LLs, LHs were the order of the day - for months now.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  SunTrader said:

Oh I was paying attention to PA, lets just say a wee bit before those dates.

 

I must have missed the posts.

 

  SunTrader said:

As I've mentioned previously LLs, LHs were the order of the day - for months now.

 

True. Six months. Then HLs and HHs before that for six months. But that's what makes a trading range.

[SunTrader 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

I must have missed the posts.

 

True. Six months. Then HLs and HHs before that for six months. But that's what makes a trading range.

I suppose. You don't follow EW, at least I think, so probably slipped right by.

 

For some a range. For others uptrend,downtrend.

 

Markets are part of the social sciences and not the hard sciences. Most of us play by different rules/guidelines.

 

I prefer not to wait around for things to become obvious.

 

Here is a current chart I'm following which I've added some basic MA's, I don't use them other than many, many years ago used a 89 SMA (blue) and I've included a 200 SMA (red) a lot give credence to mainly because a lot of others do.

 

Price reversed by 89 (not because of it) in Nov'12 and again in Dec then marched right through it like it wasn't there. Did the same for 200 in Dec, Jan, Feb.

 

One of the things, besides EW, that I do like to use is a lin reg channel drawn once a correction and a correction to the correction happens or in other words first new counter wave - points 1, 2 3. Then watch the PA. It bounced up and down its merry way down till late Feb. Then it stuck only in the bottom of the channel until it fell completely out in mid Apr.

 

As can been seen along top and bottom of chart swings are labeled. First swing down from Oct'12 high shows -6.89% drop. After a retracement it is since dropped over -20% more.

 

Can't see why anyone wouldn't see the trend that was underway, long before the fireworks, that price clearly showed?

 

Unless they trade on really, really long term or their rules don't allow for anything else.

[Larry1234 10]

The demand for the precious metal surged post the financial crisis as a store of value. Indeed, as central bankers in the developed world began printing reams of money to boost liquidity, the value of paper currencies increasingly began to be questioned. The global economy meanwhile deteriorated. Debt piled up in European countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal bringing them to the edge of bankruptcy. Unemployment soared. But that did not put a stop to the quantitative easing programs of the developed world. Thus, with the economic scenario looking bleak, a tangible, precious asset such as gold began to find more takers. So much so that there were also growing talks of the global economy returning back to the gold standard.

 

So what does this latest slide in gold prices signify? Are signs of a recovery becoming more visible as a result of which interest in gold is beginning to peter out? I do not believe so. There does not seem to be any concrete evidence that the global economy is on the mend. Companies are not investing much, consumers are not spending much and overall sluggishness continues to persist. Unemployment remains high and there is hardly any job growth happening. The recent crisis in Cyprus has only highlighted that risks in the system have not been eliminated. And the massive stimulus measures announced in Japan have only shown that central bankers are not completely done yet with monetary easing.

 

All of which increasingly means that the slide in gold in recent times is more of a correction. What is more, as per an article in Moneynews, noted investor Jim Rogers believes that while this is just the correction that gold needs, it has still not gone down enough. When it drops more, he will buy more of the metal. We are not sure to what level gold prices will correct. But we are of the view that the case for gold in the longer term still remains quite strong. Especially as long as governments across the world keep printing paper money. That is why, if you haven't started making gold a part of your portfolio, a correction in prices is certainly the right time to do so.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  SunTrader said:

I suppose. You don't follow EW, at least I think, so probably slipped right by.

 

I wouldn't say slipped right by. But no one here was interested. They were looking for buying ops and calling for 2100. Why pop somebody's balloon?

 

  SunTrader said:

For some a range. For others uptrend,downtrend.

 

As long as the swing highs and the swing lows occur at the same levels, that's how a range is defined.

 

  SunTrader said:

Can't see why anyone wouldn't see the trend that was underway, long before the fireworks, that price clearly showed?

 

I agree, but nobody posted anything about it, so why seek an argument?

 

This thread seems to consist of permabears and permabulls, both of whom are eventually right, at least temporarily. I prefer to look at what's happening in front of me, but, again, why seek an argument, particularly in threads made up primarily of hobbyists? In fact, I wouldn't be posting this now had zdo not asked who nobody was posting anything about technicals.

[zdo 20]

Expounding for potential or budding 'gold bugs' …

 

I mentioned yesterday that I was a gold bug until ‘93 and then got over it - as if it were something to recover from. From a mental perspective, it really is something to ‘recover from’. But in real life, acting in accordance with a ‘gold bug’ perspective is best seen as a necessary stage for (almost) all wealth builders. Properly accomplished, it is the stage of managing the PM/currency relationship to accumulate sufficient inventories of PMz… so one can then actually implement ‘beyond gold bug’ campaigns and strategies.

 

Fortunately, the practical and the mental stages don’t have to coincide that precisely… Personally, in my various acts along the way, some lagged and some lead my ‘understanding’ by sometimes years…

 

Most of you are a lot brighter than me so you can synch it up well and not have to go through such phase 'delays', etc…

One major challenge – the fiat spell on the collective is much more pervasive than it was then… the hypnosis is much deeper.

Meanwhile, on the plus side, if you can break the spell, the actual facts are multiples more obvious than they were back then…

 

:missy:

 

we now rtn you to your regularly scheduled posting...

[DbPhoenix 42]

  Larry1234 said:

The demand for the precious metal surged post the financial crisis as a store of value. Indeed, as central bankers in the developed world began printing reams of money to boost liquidity, the value of paper currencies increasingly began to be questioned. The global economy meanwhile deteriorated. Debt piled up in European countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal bringing them to the edge of bankruptcy. Unemployment soared. But that did not put a stop to the quantitative easing programs of the developed world. Thus, with the economic scenario looking bleak, a tangible, precious asset such as gold began to find more takers. So much so that there were also growing talks of the global economy returning back to the gold standard.

 

So what does this latest slide in gold prices signify? Are signs of a recovery becoming more visible as a result of which interest in gold is beginning to peter out? I do not believe so. There does not seem to be any concrete evidence that the global economy is on the mend. Companies are not investing much, consumers are not spending much and overall sluggishness continues to persist. Unemployment remains high and there is hardly any job growth happening. The recent crisis in Cyprus has only highlighted that risks in the system have not been eliminated. And the massive stimulus measures announced in Japan have only shown that central bankers are not completely done yet with monetary easing.

 

All of which increasingly means that the slide in gold in recent times is more of a correction. What is more, as per an article in Moneynews, noted investor Jim Rogers believes that while this is just the correction that gold needs, it has still not gone down enough. When it drops more, he will buy more of the metal. We are not sure to what level gold prices will correct. But we are of the view that the case for gold in the longer term still remains quite strong. Especially as long as governments across the world keep printing paper money. That is why, if you haven't started making gold a part of your portfolio, a correction in prices is certainly the right time to do so.

 

No disrespect, but this is exactly the kind of post I referred to above. Gold can go up or down but buy it anyway. But not yet. Even to an investor, this sort of guidance is of little value.

 

Whatever anyone does with his own money is none of my business, but given this little island that gold has created for itself, esp considering the levels at which it's taken place, anyone buying or shorting before gold shows its hand is gambling.

 

We now return you to our regularly-scheduled programming.

[zdo 20]

  DbPhoenix said:

Lack of interest? :shrug:

With this kind of price movement in such a low vix world, I would guess ‘unable of interest’ describes it a little better than ‘lack of interest’ …

 

  DbPhoenix said:

Now, of course, we're holding in a previous trading range that formed some time ago, but that is of course of no interest here, so whatever happens will likely be a surprise to those who aren't prepared.

More db twipping … instead of ‘that is of course of no interest here’ let’s say ‘that is of course of little interest here’ because at least one person, me, used such a level to set handles for the cautious limit pyramiding. I didn’t go to ‘exactly’ the middle of the range like you (used to – still do ???) talk about… I glanced at the mid Oct 2010 to mid Mar 2011 in AU to set .67 handles for AG limit entries. If you haven’t talked about that lately and if you have time, maybe some could benefit from a review or real time chart examples…thx

 

 

SunTrust, re ‘trend down yet’, what time frames are you referring to? And what are you using to demarcate a trend?

For example, when I glance at the weekly PMz, I only see corrective action – more so in AU than in AG, but still…

(… and not to say it couldn’t ‘correct’ a LOT further…)

(... and not to say that one can't see any 'wave count' they 'want' to see on any chart of any time frame...) thx

[EDIT MY QUESTIONS WERE ANSWERED IN POST 305 Thanks.]

Edited April 19, 2013 by zdo

[SunTrader 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

I wouldn't say slipped right by. But no one here was interested. They were looking for buying ops and calling for 2100. Why pop somebody's balloon?

 

 

So don't give an opinion then?

 

  DbPhoenix said:

As long as the swing highs and the swing lows occur at the same levels, that's how a range is defined.

 

So why stop at a monthly lookback. Here is a quarterly chart where price has, phew!, broken out of that pesky trading range. But wait if I could plot a yearly chart it would show we still haven't broken the 2011 HL range or if I could plot a decade chart that hasn't broken it either. Although that range, so far, would be the same as 2011 itself. Glad for that. I'd hate to have to wait possibly years more.

 

  DbPhoenix said:

 

I agree, but nobody posted anything about it, so why seek an argument?

 

This thread seems to consist of permabears and permabulls, both of whom are eventually right, at least temporarily. I prefer to look at what's happening in front of me, but, again, why seek an argument, particularly in threads made up primarily of hobbyists? In fact, I wouldn't be posting this now had zdo not asked who nobody was posting anything about technicals.

 

No argument, I asked a simple question. As for as argumentative you might want to go back and read your responses to me in your thread around post# 400 though.

 

And try not to be so dismissive of others, at least when outside your topics.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  SunTrader said:

 

So don't give an opinion then?

 

An opinion on what?

 

So why stop at a monthly lookback. Here is a quarterly chart where price has, phew!, broken out of that pesky trading range. But wait if I could plot a yearly chart it would show we still haven't broken the 2011 HL range or if I could plot a decade chart that hasn't broken it either. Although that range, so far, would be the same as 2011 itself. Glad for that. I'd hate to have to wait possibly years more.

 

But you've drawn the trading range incorrectly. See Auction Markets.

 

No argument, I asked a simple question.

 

If you're referring to this question -- "Can't see why anyone wouldn't see the trend that was underway, long before the fireworks, that price clearly showed?" -- which is more rhetorical than interrogative, I agreed. Gold had made a triple top by then.

 

As for as argumentative you might want to go back and read your responses to me in your thread around post# 400 though.

 

Which I answered in post 401.

 

And try not to be so dismissive of others, at least when outside your topics.

 

You may want to heed your own advice.

 

......................................

[MightyMouse 12]

We can safely call the recent activity in gold either a pull back in an uptrend or the beginning of a down trend or just range based activity.

 

Personally, I feel gold has been overbought for a very long time. There are more longs in gold than there is gold to go around. Price has not risen with all the recent gold buying. This tells me that all the buying was done by weak buyers who bought the top. They bought from either lucky sellers or smart sellers. Take your pick. I want to be short against weak longs who will piss their pants as price goes against them.

 

Whenever anything gets oversubscribed, price levels become unsustainable. Housing, for example, had more homes than homeowners and we are still working through that inventory that was built up from false demand in the early 2000's.

 

I am completely comfortable thinking that we will see $400-$600 gold before we see $1700 again. We can certainly overshoot that and hit much lower prices. $400-$600 is just a guess.

[Vinayak 10]

Bullish on Gold: Great time to Buy

 

There has been a lot of interest in gold among Asian economies and especially India that has an obsession with gold. Additionally, even in the US and the Euro zone, more and more people recognize the bargain and are looking to purchase gold.

 

This alone should drive up gold prices and most analysts agree that we will see high prices beginning next week. But I want to add here that the global economy is faced with a lot of issues with Chinese growth data being especially discouraging for bulls along with the massive debt. Then there is the stagnation we've been seeing in the EU with all the debt problems.

 

So in times of economic strife, gold will rise and this has held true. Add this to the fact that there has been increasing demand for the precious metal and it makes a lot of sense to buy gold right now or look for call options on the commodity or any ETFs.

 

Interestingly, gold ETFs have been especially good at weathering the storm.

[Larry1234 10]

Gold has experienced over a 12% drop in recent days, and many investors are worried about what is going on with the gold price. Why is it crashing? Since gold's peak, it is down around 25%, official putting the commodity in bear market territory.

 

Before I answer why gold is crashing, let's look back to gold over the last few years. Rewind back to 2008, when the financial crisis first began. Gold was trading at around $800. At this time, due to what was going on in the global economy, the US Federal Reserve began its controversial policy of Quantitative Easing (QE).

 

Since QE was first implemented five years ago, it has expanded in the US, and been pursued by other central banks. Over this period, the logic for owning gold worked as follows: Due to QE, inflation is going up and paper money will lose its value. Thus, one should own gold, as gold cannot be printed and will therefore be a better store of wealth.

 

And so, gold began its upward run, starting from $800 in 2008 and peaking at over $1800 dollars in 2011. In the space of 3 years, the gold price more than doubled as investors bought the commodity as a safe haven. Even with the most recent fall, gold is still up over 70% in the last five years.

 

Why exactly is gold crashing? There is one major problem with the logic for gold going up over the last few years. I'm talking about inflation. Unlike many predictions, QE has not led to significant increases in inflation.

 

Despite the Fed's many rounds of QE, US inflation is less than 2%. The Euro-zone's inflation rate is also under 2%. Japan, which has some of the loosest monetary policy in the world is actually experiencing deflation. India, despite a much tighter monetary policy and no QE whatsoever, has inflation at 6%. What is more is that most countries have seen a fall in inflation rates over the last couple of years.

 

What this should tell us is that the link between QE and inflation is not as clear as we think. There is no evidence that more QE leads to inflation. So why is gold falling? Well, gold went up because people thought inflation was going to spiral out of control. That hasn't happened, and as a result gold is now retreating Maybe the better question we should ask ourselves is: Where is the inflation?

[kuokam 10]

No demand = prices collapse = no inflation.

Good analysis. I will be aggressively shorting XAU right from market open, targeting at least the last low just above 1320.

[ntrader 10]

The rumors about Cyprus selling gold send the gold markets south, i believe (and i hope) this week gold price will recover

[bobcollett 10]

  kuokam said:

No demand = prices collapse = no inflation.

Good analysis. I will be aggressively shorting XAU right from market open, targeting at least the last low just above 1320.

 

Be careful kuokom,

Gold remains very oversold . It can easily get another bounce up, and then you will be stopped out.I will wait for a bounce.

Just a thought.At 1350, or there abouts,China could become a buyer to get rid of their pile of dollars.Thats just a thought and has no academic backing.

I am looking at shorting Copper or a copper elated stock.

regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

  SIUYA said:

Bob - Ozzztralia aint got no gold, ................................

 

if the ozzy falls it might get them tourists back here - except its sooo fircken expensive here now you have to sell your grandmother to get much more than a cold slab on a Friday nights shindig and the service aint much to boot....you want something, help yourself....

 

for that 2 cents - leave your money on the fridge and dont touch the bloody kingswood on the way out.

 

Hello!! AUS $ falls sharply.

regards

bobc

[kuokam 10]

You could be right. What I meant is that for me there is still some room to the downside for gold, and I am closely monitoring what I consider a mere retracement of the last leg down, and will short at first serious bearish signal.

As for China jumping in, why would they do it at 1350 and not at 1550 or 1150? In september 2011 gold traded above 1900.

 

  bobcollett said:

Be careful kuokom,

Gold remains very oversold . It can easily get another bounce up, and then you will be stopped out.I will wait for a bounce.

Just a thought.At 1350, or there abouts,China could become a buyer to get rid of their pile of dollars.Thats just a thought and has no academic backing.

I am looking at shorting Copper or a copper elated stock.

regards

bobc

[SIUYA 11]

  bobcollett said:

Hello!! AUS $ falls sharply.

regards

bobc

 

LOL

shock horror - its back to where it was early March and still remains a s..t boring instrument.

Best book your holidays here now to come and pick up the gold lying in the streets - just watch out for the crocs and nicky narks in the toilets and the bunyips in the trees.

(it is about due (for want of a better word) a decent move down IMHO)

regards

[bobcollett 10]

The last 4 days have seen Gold open GAP UP , and then close the gap over the day.

Today the gap was bigger than previous...38 points.

And the gap is slowly closing.

Here are two trades:

 

Sell immediately for a 16 point possible profit to close the gap.

 

Buy at the market close for a gap up tomorrow. SELL at the open.

 

regards

bobc

PS I wonder if anyone is listening

[SunTrader 10]

No gaps, open or otherwise, on my AUDUSD chart?

 

Opps, sorry misread. Now I see you are talking Gold.

[Ammeo 10]

Analysts at Credit Suisse are even more bearish on Gold predicting a $1100/oz-$1200/oz while same goes for BofAML Commodity Strategists Michael Widmer and Sabine Schels predicting similar levels to come...

 

Im myself is a big bull of Gold at this point but the ratings from the market commentators is still a sign we may see even more bearish moves in Gold in the weeks to come..

Edited April 22, 2013 by Ammeo

[bobcollett 10]

The Gold Gap has not closed . Its sideways.

And the price has closed higher than 4 previous days . Thats a sign of strength and will bring buyers.I am out of my short position at a loss of 3 points. I am scared the price will gap up through my stop and I will lose 20 points

The short term trend is now UP

Time for a rethink.

bobc