Gold Bullish or Bearish

[Ammeo 10]

Well if my wave count is right, that I have posted recently, then Gold is in a corrective phase and therefore although it is rising it is not strong.

 

Look at the recent move down from Feb 7 to Feb 21 - impulsive. Since then corrective, overlapping price bars. Big moves out of corrective patterns resume the prior trend, which in this case would be down.

 

IMO if you are looking to go long and for more than a day or two you will need patience and to wait out correction and then completion of downtrend before looking for a new uptrend to commence.

 

I'll agree. Seems there is still downward correction left in Gold and GOD knows when it'll end.

Im still waiting to have a long position in Gold for the last 1 month but havent got a good entry zone yet...

[ntrader 10]

This was gold's second-straight quarterly decline, the first time that has happened since 2001. Investors speculate that it is only a matter of time that the FED will end QE and begin to raise interest rates given the recent strength in the U.S. economy.

[SunTrader 10]

No bottom yet. .

[bobcollett 10]

This was gold's second-straight quarterly decline, the first time that has happened since 2001. Investors speculate that it is only a matter of time that the FED will end QE and begin to raise interest rates given the recent strength in the U.S. economy.

 

Hi ntrader

Not this year

regards

bobc

[ntrader 10]

Gold ETF assets fell 6.9% in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg the most since at least 2004. Investor assets in SPDR Gold Trust are back where they were in July 2011.

[Larry1234 10]

Commodities experts (pundits) are of the opinion of the end of the gold bull market. They are expecting gold to go down in future.

 

Who knows? Maybe they're right. But it seems more likely that when the Japanese get their presses running hot the price of gold will resume its upward climb.

 

Or, looking at the big picture, the central banks of the world have decided that money printing is the solution to low growth and high unemployment. Unless something happens to stop them, they'll probably keep increasing the money supply. And the price of gold will probably keep going up.

[jimbo320 10]

Commodities experts (pundits) are of the opinion of the end of the gold bull market. They are expecting gold to go down in future.

 

Whose the expert? Goldman Sachs?

Gold can only go up, once money velocity increases, and inflation hits.

Let the bankers create another credit bubble, gold is still a long term buy IMO. It often has multi year consolidations. If you don't trust the money printers and the governments gold is where to be.

[SunTrader 10]

Gold can only go up, ....

Last time I checked Gold also has bear markets (and outright market crashes) like anything else that is traded.

 

The obvious never is, except in hindsight.

[Larry1234 10]

Whose the expert? Goldman Sachs?

Gold can only go up, once money velocity increases, and inflation hits.

 

I totally agree that once the money supply increases, there is high probability that the Gold price will increase which means that a round of quantitative easing which entails gold rising due to heavy duty money creation by central banks around the world. That was certainly the case in the early rounds of quantitative easing. But each additional round of quantitative easing has resulted in gold rising less in response than to the previous bouts.

 

What is happening is that the low interest rate environment created and perpetuated by Bernanke is defeating gold as a yield hungry investment community seeks assets that pay income. Dividend-paying stocks and high yield bonds have become very popular with investors seeking income.

 

As gold is a commodity, it does not have an income component. Due to that, it is in disfavor as an investment in the current climate. But from a long term point of view (i.e. 5 - 10 years), Gold will certainly go up and will definitely provide investors a hedge against inflation IMO.

[SunTrader 10]

Just yesterday in the NYTimes. Go ahead and dismiss it. Awww the mainstream press, what do they know.

 

All I know is everyone and their brother was expecting $2000 gold any day now ....... for the last two years. And it has done the opposite.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/business/gold-long-a-secure-investment-loses-its-luster.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20130411&_r=0

 

Gold, Long a Secure Investment, Loses Its Luster

 

By NATHANIEL POPPER

 

Below the streets of Lower Manhattan, in the vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the world’s largest trove of gold — half a million bars — has lost about $75 billion of its value. In Fort Knox, Ky., at the United States Bullion Depository, the damage totals $50 billion.

 

And in Pocatello, Idaho, the tiny golden treasure of Jon Norstog has dwindled, too. A $29,000 investment that Mr. Norstog made in 2011 is now worth about $17,000, a loss of 42 percent.

 

“I thought if worst came to worst and the government brought down the world economy, I would still have something that was worth something,” Mr. Norstog, 67, says of his foray into gold.

 

Gold, pride of Croesus and store of wealth since time immemorial, has turned out to be a very bad investment of late. A mere two years after its price raced to a nominal high, gold is sinking — fast. Its price has fallen 17 percent since late 2011. Wednesday was another bad day for gold: the price of bullion dropped $28 to $1,558 an ounce.

 

It is a remarkable turnabout for an investment that many have long regarded as one of the safest of all. The decline has been so swift that some Wall Street analysts are declaring the end of a golden age of gold. The stakes are high: the last time the metal went through a patch like this, in the 1980s, its price took 30 years to recover.

 

What went wrong? The answer, in part, lies in what went right. Analysts say gold is losing its allure after an astonishing 650 percent rally from August 1999 to August 2011. Fast-money hedge fund managers and ordinary savers alike flocked to gold, that haven of havens, when the world economy teetered on the brink in 2009. Now, the worst of the Great Recession has passed. Things are looking up for the economy and, as a result, down for gold. On top of that, concern that the loose monetary policy at Federal Reserve might set off inflation — a prospect that drove investors to gold — have so far proved to be unfounded.

 

And so Wall Street is growing increasingly bearish on gold, an investment that banks and others had deftly marketed to the masses only a few years ago. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs became the latest big bank to predict further declines, forecasting that the price of gold would sink to $1,390 within a year, down 11 percent from where it traded on Wednesday. Société Générale of France last week issued a report titled, “The End of the Gold Era,” which said the price should fall to $1,375 by the end of the year and could keep falling for years.

 

Granted, gold has gone through booms and busts before, including at least two from its peak in 1980, when it traded at $835, to its high in 2011. And anyone who bought gold in 1999 and held on has done far better than the average stock market investor. Even after the recent decline, gold is still up 515 percent.

 

But for a generation of investors, the golden decade created the illusion that the metal would keep rising forever. The financial industry seized on such hopes to market a growing range of gold investments, making the current downturn in gold felt more widely than previous ones. That triumph of marketing gold was apparent in an April 2011 poll by Gallup, which found that 34 percent of Americans thought that gold was the best long-term investment, more than another other investment category, including real estate and mutual funds.

 

It is hard to know just how much money ordinary Americans plowed into gold, given the array of investment vehicles, including government-minted coins, publicly traded commodity funds, mining company stocks and physical bullion. But $5 billion that flowed into gold-focused mutual funds in 2009 and 2010, according to Morningstar, helped the funds reach a peak value of $26.3 billion. Since hitting a peak in April 2011, those funds have lost half of their value.

 

“Gold is very much a psychological market,” said William O’Neill, a co-founder of the research firm Logic Advisors, which told its investors to get out of all gold positions in December after recommending the investment for years. “Unless there is some unforeseen development, I think the market is going lower.”

 

Gold’s abrupt reversal has also been painful for companies that were cashing in on the gold craze. In the last year, two gold-focused mutual funds were liquidated after years of new fund openings, Morningstar data shows. Perhaps the most famous company to come out of the 2011 gold rush, the retail trading company Goldline, has drastically cut back its advertising on cable television, lowering spending to $3.7 million from $17.8 million in 2010, according to Kantar Media.

 

Goldline agreed to pay $4.5 million last year to settle charges brought by the city attorney of Santa Monica, Calif., accusing the company of running a bait-and-switch operation. Goldline did not respond to requests for comment for this article.

 

But the worst news for gold is probably good news for the broader economy, which, though still struggling to grow, has recovered from its lows.

 

“As the economy improves, the demand for gold as a financial hedge declines more than the fundamental demand for gold jewelry increases,” said Daniel J. Arbess, a partner at Perella Weinberg Partners, who sold off his fund’s large stake in gold in the fourth quarter of 2012.

 

Investment professionals, who have focused many of their bets on gold exchange-traded funds, or E.T.F.’s, have been faster than retail investors to catch wind of gold’s changing fortune. The outflow at the most popular E.T.F., the SPDR Gold Shares, was the biggest of any E.T.F. in the first quarter of this year as hedge funds and traders pulled out $6.6 billion, according to the data firm IndexUniverse. Two prominent hedge fund managers who had taken big positions in gold E.T.F.’s, George Soros and Louis M. Bacon, sold in the last quarter of 2012, according to recent regulatory filings.

 

“Gold was destroyed as a safe haven, proved to be unsafe,” Mr. Soros said in an interview last week with The South China Morning Post of Hong Kong. “Because of the disappointment, most people are reducing their holdings of gold.”

 

Gold’s most vocal bulls say gold doubters are losing faith too easily. Peter Schiff, the chief executive of the investment firm Euro Pacific Capital, said that he still expected gold to hit $5,000 an ounce within a few years because, he said, the world is headed for a period of dangerous hyperinflation.

 

“People believe the U.S. economy is recovering. It’s not,” said Mr. Schiff.

 

The most famous investor who is standing by gold is John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made a fortune betting against the American housing market. His $900 million gold fund reportedly dropped 26 percent in the first two months of this year.

 

Mr. Paulson’s losses were particularly severe because he bet heavily on gold mining companies, which have fallen more sharply than gold itself.

 

Mr. Norstog, in Pocatello, made a similar mistake. He put his money in a gold fund that was focused on mining company stocks.

 

“If I had to do it all over again, I would have just bought the gold,” Mr. Norstog said. “At least that way I could have run my fingers through the glittering coins.”

Edited April 11, 2013 by SunTrader

[jimbo320 10]

Last time I checked Gold also has bear markets (and outright market crashes) like anything else that is traded.

 

The obvious never is, except in hindsight.

 

Good buying opp them for the long termer.

[SunTrader 10]

Good buying opp them for the long termer.

 

Stick around. More buying opp coming.

 

Me, I never cost average.

[jimbo320 10]

The paper sellers still have to find the gold before expiration in June and deliver it. Meanwhile the smart money, chinese, russians, buy the physical. They don't want to be owning dollars, pounds, euros or rubles.

[SunTrader 10]

Left out Yen in currencies to sell.

 

So the "smart" money has been selling dollars, which have been going up lately and buying Gold which has been going down lately?

 

I'm dumb then. I like to buy when something goes up and vice versa.

[SunTrader 10]

Wave 5 heading down. Bottom might be nearing - probably next week sometime.

[bobcollett 10]

This is for Jimbo and Larry,

Gold will NOT increase because of QE.

Forget about inflation.

Thats why everybody is printing money, to create inflation, and its not happening.The money is going into stocks.Its not circulating fast enough.

The more money printed , the more stocks will rise .Because the institutions need to invest all the QE money.

And now Japan has joined the printers with an expected trillion $ expansion.And the NIKKI has risen 40%.

Thats going to put Gold sideways for another 2 years.

Some more...Who buys gold ? China and India, and they have slowed down. There is weak demand!!!!

You can trade Gold but buying it long term is..... long term.

Buy Goldman Sachs. They've got all the QE money.

kind regards

bobc

 

PS The day after interest rates start rising, thats the day stocks will start falling.

PSS .Even then dont buy Gold

PSSS.The trend is DOWN, but its the end of a lunar Green period this weekend..

Stocks will take a breather from about Wednesday.

Possible trading opportunity to Buy Gold for a 20 point rise.

[SunTrader 10]

Wave 5 heading down. Bottom might be nearing - probably next week sometime.

Opps my mistake. Any bottom coming should be short-lived.

 

I forgot about wave count on higher level. That shows nearest support down in the 1400's. As others are saying.

[bobcollett 10]

To all Gold traders

And Silver traders

SELL, SELL, SELL.

June Futures contracts down $60

Thats a smash!!!

Solar flare M class arriving this weekend.

That wiil also knock the indexes .(S&P)

YOU HVE BEEN WARNED

regards

bobc

[SunTrader 10]

"The possibility of Cyprus selling gold “is a heavy weight on the market, and could set a bad precedent for other central banks looking to relieve pressures from austerity measures,”

 

Gold Heading for Bear Market Plunges to Lowest Since July 2011

 

Gold Heading for Bear Market Plunges to Lowest Since July 2011 - Bloomberg

[zdo 20]

...Forget about inflation.

...

 

bobc, I can 't forget about 'inflation'... and 'deflation'... and both happening at the same time.

How can I forget?

bobc,help me forget :rofl:

 

 

...

 

 

Re XAU/USD

spec… I’m still right where I was a year ago…

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12545-good-time-buy-gold-again-2.html#post145216

 

 

 

 

 

 

actually re XAU/USD

I don’t know. I don’t even care. But I am trading gold for silver…at an accelerating rate.

 

Have a great weekend all…

[bobcollett 10]

[quote=zdo;1

But I am trading gold for silver…at an accelerating rate.

…

 

Hi zdo

Stop doing this.

And sell all the Silver.

TODAY.

Buy Goldman Sachs (They are short 1 billion$) Thats hearsay!!

kind regards

bobc

[bobcollett 10]

Heres the "picture"

bobc

[zdo 20]

Hi zdo

Stop doing this.

And sell all the Silver.

TODAY.

 

No.

 

What would I sell/exchange all the Silver for???

 

Thanks a lot. That really helped :rofl:

...

 

 

 

Heres the "picture"

 

"...this girl is on fi-yer..."

[bobcollett 10]

No.

 

What would I sell/exchange all the Silver for???

 

."

 

Goldman Sachs.....(lengthening message)

bobc

[Vinayak 10]

Gold Nosedives Below $1,500 As ETF Holdings Free Fall, Fueling Panic Selling

 

There is no end in sight to the gold ETF liquidation. Gold prices crumbled today falling $60, or 4%, to stand near $1,500 after briefly touching $1,492 -- the lowest level since July 2011. Since peaking in September 2011 above $1,921, gold prices have essentially been range-bound between $1,525 and $1,800. Today's move pushes gold out of that range. Thus, from a technical perspective, the yellow metal is considered to have "broken down."