Gold Bullish or Bearish

[tupapa 10]

Yes, it's possible. We'll only know in hindsight. The real issue is what, where, when and if are you going to do something about it.

 

Gringo

 

 

I completely agree, anyone can come up with a decent plan, but it is the ability to execute it that is the issue.

 

This could be a secondary reaction or not, price could rise or fall, the outcome is uncertain. However, by analyzing what traders have done in the past and are doing now, we can make an assessment of the next most probable outcome.

 

We are all placing our bets, even if our bet is standing aside and waiting. In my opinion, if we wait for to much confirmation, the race could be over by the time we make up our mind.

 

And what is there to lose anyway? If our stop gets hit one or twice, who cares? It is just a bit of money, the risk reward of a reversal withing a large TR is worth the risk, isn't? Or are we risking more than money here...

[SunTrader 10]

Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

Maybe.

 

To keep risk low I wait for confirmation - such as (for long entry) taking out prior high or swing high.

 

Most times you lose out on a better entry but have better probabililities of a winner.

[ntrader 10]

Here is what I believe about the falling gold prices. The end of financial panic in the eurozone is as good a reason as any for gold to fall. As a result many individuals and investors will reduce their safety holdings such as cash, gold, silver, and bonds as fears fade. This is not to say that we are out of the woods, but fears have lessened and hedge funds are already in the process of reducing their holdings of gold, and investment demand for gold has dropped around the world in the last year. But I am not optimistic about the eurozone crisis and i am sure is far from over, so i am still bullish on gold prices.

[tupapa 10]

Maybe.

 

To keep risk low I wait for confirmation - such as (for long entry) taking out prior high or swing high.

 

Most times you lose out on a better entry but have better probabilities of a winner.

 

Fair enough, this is just a question of how much price risk or information risk you are comfortable with.

 

IF you buy on the 21st (Climax)

 

Your price risk is at its lowest: Tightest possible stop.

Your information risk is at its highest: There is little confirmation, which might mean exiting the trade as soon as it turns against you.

Probability of success is at its lowest

Risk/Reward is at its highest

 

If you buy on the current price action, assuming it fits your entry criteria) (secondary reaction)

 

Your price risk increases: You need a slightly wider stop

Your information risk is reduced: You have some confirmation (Higher Low)

 

Probability of sucess is moderate

Risk Reward is Moderate

 

IF you buy as price breaks the last swing high (high of the technical rally)

 

Your price risk is at is highest: Your stop is much wider than in the previous opportunities.

Your information risk is at its lowest: At this point you have a HL, followed by a HH and you are buying into an established up-trend.

Probability of success is at its highest

Risk/Reward is at its lowest

 

I guess it is up to the trader, to establish which combination he is more comfortable with. In my case, I currently opt for a mix of price/information risk but this might change in the future

 

I know this isn't related to gold particularly or to gold in general. I am just trying to get my thoughts in order. Also, you seem like you know what you are looking for on a trade and I am sure you have your own interpretations of what risk is and how you deal with it in the trading arena.

Edited March 4, 2013 by tupapa

[SunTrader 10]

Fair enough, this is just a question of how much price risk or information risk you are comfortable with .

If I buy at the moment my risk is high based on my trade guidelines.

 

Reward might be high but so are the risks. Period.

[DbPhoenix 42]

.

I don't know if a chart of this trend channel has been posted. If not, here it is.

 

There was first the "oversold" bounce two weeks ago up to the midpoint of the range. And buyers did a nice job of pulling price back up into the channel on Friday. Now, however, we just have to wait and see. Since the long was never triggered, the short is still in effect. That may prove to be the case tomorrow as well.

 

 

[autotrader1 10]

XAU/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 05 March, 2013

Wave 4 of moderate (13%) amplitude has crossed a threshold where the probability of a failure is higher. This wave could turn into an impulse wave 1 of opposite trend. Wait until wave resumes a normal pattern or a wave 1 is confirmed.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 4

Gold / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1,666.68 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 33.89 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 21.86 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -44.87, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 60.63. This value is in the neutral territory.

Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 1,566.88 one bar ago ; this is usually a bullish sign that is not to be used alone! Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated High at 1,602.76 one bar ago; this is usually a bearish sign

Buy Gold intraday with target at 1582.60 with stop loss at 1561.40

[tupapa 10]

Would you say gold is on the Springboard?

 

-The market has completed 3 days of higher support and the bars are compressing.

-The volume is considerably lower than the volume on the 21st

 

Doesn't this confirm that selling pressure is losing its force and buying power is overcoming it?

 

#

 

Its fascinating how the current price action in Gold is pretty much the same as what Wyckoff was looking at when he was trading the NY Times Average in 1931.

Edited March 5, 2013 by tupapa

[DbPhoenix 42]

It might be, given the major support at this level. Fortunately I don't have to care, if I set a buystop above the price rather than just jump in. If it triggers, I'm "judging the market by its own action" rather than by whatever biases I may have. If it doesn't trigger, I'm still in the short.

[SunTrader 10]

..........

-The market has completed 3 days of higher support and the bars are compressing.

-The volume is considerably lower than the volume on the 21st

 

Doesn't this confirm that selling pressure is losing its force and buying power is overcoming it? ........

Although yesterday (Monday) was a narrow range inside day I wouldn't read too much into it being low volume. As per following chart Mondays historically are the lowest volume day of the week:

[zdo 20]

anyone have thoughts on the backwardation ? thx

[SIUYA 11]

anyone have thoughts on the backwardation ? thx

 

not really - but thoughts might be....

 

no one wants to own gold in the future...

no one trusts their counter parties to deliver, so paper trades below physical....

evil manipulators....

sellers finding liquidity where they can....

 

Whats the long term spread between spot and future?

 

I dont know, but i am sure Zdo you will have some doom and gloom idea that will be good food for thought to look forward to.....

[kuokam 10]

FWW

 

"Gold Prices Are Being Manipulated and Here's What To Do About It

By Keith Fitz-Gerald,Chief Investment Strategist

 

The latest from Keith Fitz-Gerald If you've ever suspected gold prices are being manipulated, you're not alone--and you're right, they are.

 

The world's biggest traders have bet heavily on gold which is why they're now pulling out all the stops to get what they want and laugh their way to bigger bonuses.

 

Today, I want to talk to you about who "they" are and share a few tricks you can use to capitalize on their momentum without being taken to the poorhouse.

 

Here's how to play the game to win..."

 

not really - but thoughts might be....

 

no one wants to own gold in the future...

no one trusts their counter parties to deliver, so paper trades below physical....

evil manipulators....

sellers finding liquidity where they can....

 

Whats the long term spread between spot and future?

 

I dont know, but i am sure Zdo you will have some doom and gloom idea that will be good food for thought to look forward to.....

[zdo 20]

not really ...

 

SUIYA, re "not really" Thanks a lot.

 

Like it or not - and acknowledge it or not - by far and away most trading posters post on topics they are working on understanding more deeply. At this point in time, while I respect others’ needs, I don’t need to or care to post methods, explorations, ‘beyonds’, whatever on reading and trading charts, ‘technicals’, etc... Except for the few truly dedicated souls we are blessed with in here, most of us don’t enthusiastically and redundantly post more than a few times about what has gone ‘unconscious competent’ …

 

In my case, most of my posted questions lean toward more ‘fundamental’ issues… and most zdgloom posts are simply throwing some questions up to the polyanna crowds who seem to assume the status quo is authentically stable in a world awash in fiat. That which is unsustainable really is unsustainable. ( sorry, that’s inside ‘brilliance’ only SunTrader could appreciate ! )

 

My simplest explicit explanation for why I’m long biased PM’s for decades now is 'trend analysis'. But it was sheer luck off handed comments by someone I respected that initially turned my interest that way. His certainty reinforced my less certain ‘fundamentals’. …

and, in retrospect, I can also safely call it sheer luck that I just happened to start acting on that bias near the PM lows … sheer luck - not ‘understanding’.

 

STIGMYA ... check the history of my stock index posts – they are not bear and gloom at all. In fact, many of them questioned why we weren’t at dow 19000 then… and now, why not dow 23000 today. I have a multi year long SI / shortYM spread campaign going, but most of those years are flat, not short, the YM.

Imo, it’s better to accumulate PMs than not – but I even ponder that coming ‘resets’ may not even favor PM’s at all… in real time ways I haven’t even imagined yet…

 

 

re: “long term spread between spot and future”

long term spreads seem to be ‘routine’.

My questions came from the spot / april ask spread.

For me, the ~ .70 cnt backwardation btwn spot ask and April ask, after costs, etc., would not worth releasing / ‘losing’ the physical, even to lock in a sure small profit.

Is this the case for others too?

Is that what makes this opportunity persist for weeks?

 

Maybe I’m too far off technicals topic…moving back on topic - I also have a question for those who have been posting in this thread.

Why do you work short term charts and SR's etc, in gold?

 

zdo

Edited March 5, 2013 by zdo

[SIUYA 11]

My questions came from the spot / april ask spread.

For me, the ~ .70 cnt backwardation btwn spot ask and April ask, after costs, etc., would not worth releasing / ‘losing’ the physical, even to lock in a sure small profit.

Is this the case for others too?

Is that what makes this opportunity persist for weeks?

 

 

zdo

 

You mean to say sometimes its ok to have an answer that is 'I dont know, but here are some possibilities' LOL......thats unpossible on a forum.....

 

You are so doubly deceptively confusing Zdo I never know what to make of your excessive pessimism or optimism but i enjoy it none the less.

 

If the most likely explanation is the simplest explanation then I think your answer might be in the uncertainty of a 'sure profit' maybe. After MFG imagine loosing your physical gold with the 'promise' to get it back. Would most gold bugs be likely to be untrusting souls anyways?

 

As I said I dont know - but at a guess I hope I know more than Kuokams mate Keith Fitz-Gerald,Chief Investment Strategist - who FWIW and IMHO wasted 5 mins of my life with his crap (no offence intended to you Kuokam)

[zdo 20]

You mean to say ...

 

Most posters who don’t have the answer or even any answer say nothing at all… but SUIYA, he … …

:haha:Don’t you think the “I don’t knows” are unnecessary ?… especially since you don’t post a “don’t know” to every post that you “don’t know” …then routinely follow your “don’t know ” with a clouding of the question via some spin to dilute the original question – comments about my extremes of “gloom and doom” just the latest example.

 

Yes, you are accurately picking up that my interests and the spheres I operate in aren’t typical… or 'normal'. But I do have respect for TL members… enough respect, at least, that my questions are sincere and can be taken simply at face value…

and yes answers, including yours, are appreciated. If I really knew, I wouldn't ask...

 

zdo

 

 

 

 

 

My questions may have taken the thread off track from the shorter time frame bar chart conversations. Thread killer? Hope not. Will move my PM posts and questions to a new thread or revive an old one that seems more aligned to non chart info, ‘fundamentals’ ( not really the right word btw), etc.

 

I would still appreciate answers to why the posters herein work ‘shorter’ time frame charts in gold. Thanks.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Most posters who don’t have the answer or even any answer say nothing at all… but SUIYA, he …

 

My questions may have taken the thread off track from the shorter time frame bar chart conversations. Thread killer? Hope not. Will move my PM posts and questions to a new thread or revive an old one that seems more aligned to non chart info, ‘fundamentals’ ( not really the right word btw), etc.

 

I would still appreciate answers to why the posters herein work ‘shorter’ time frame charts in gold. Thanks.

 

NR from me bec I'm not interested in the shorter TFs here and I can't answer for anybody else. But it's worth reviewing the thread from the beginning to determine how successful the ST traders have been in profiting from this trading range. Perhaps those who have been, if any, can help you.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Gold breaking out nicely. We'll see how it fares by the end of RTH. But it's ten points in profit so far.

[SunTrader 10]

Has no bearing on a short term trades but down the line hmmmm:

 

Gold Sales From Soros Reveal 12-Year Bull Run Decay: Commodities

 

Gold Sales From Soros Reveal 12-Year Bull Run Decay: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Gold’s worst start to a year in a quarter century and the biggest sales by investors on record are increasing concern that bullion’s longest rally since the end of World War I is ending."

[tupapa 10]

Gold breaking out nicely. We'll see how it fares by the end of RTH. But it's ten points in profit so far.

 

So now you are in the trade, you simply look for evidence whether to hold or fold after RTH right?

 

The next milestone is the AR high at 1620, a break above this level confirms the reversal and it is the third and last opportunity. This is the least favorable entry, since one is increasing risk by buying on an up-wave.

 

All this according to WYckoff.

[SunTrader 10]

I believe although it hasn't moved higher by much price is a little, relatively speaking, overextended but will probably move sideways to up for the next week or so but then will resume downtrend once wave 4 completes:

[SunTrader 10]

I believe although it hasn't moved higher by much price is a little, relatively speaking, overextended but will probably move sideways to up for the next week or so but then will resume downtrend once wave 4 completes:

 

Looking like wave 4 completes by end of week/monday latest at either typical zone of 1631-1637 or max zone of 1647-1657.

[SunTrader 10]

Meanwhile Silver is getting left behind, which is bearish for Gold if it were to continue much.

[ntrader 10]

Unfortunately for me gold doesn't look as strong as i was expecting, maybe the markets know something that i can not see.

[SunTrader 10]

Unfortunately for me gold doesn't look as strong as i was expecting, maybe the markets know something that i can not see.

Well if my wave count is right, that I have posted recently, then Gold is in a corrective phase and therefore although it is rising it is not strong.

 

Look at the recent move down from Feb 7 to Feb 21 - impulsive. Since then corrective, overlapping price bars. Big moves out of corrective patterns resume the prior trend, which in this case would be down.

 

IMO if you are looking to go long and for more than a day or two you will need patience and to wait out correction and then completion of downtrend before looking for a new uptrend to commence.

Edited March 20, 2013 by SunTrader