Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Gold Bullish or Bearish

Recommended Posts

We just touched a great low last week. My plan is to scalp a couple ticks along the way, with a bullish bias into this week.

 

 

I suppose a bounce continuing is in the cards for the next day or two or longer but I'm waiting for the downtrend to resume before entering again.

5aa711bdb3448_SpotGoldweek250213(DFB).png.99ad1422a6a705ff0b074bc104e22ab3.png

Edited by kuokam

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont have a view on gold.......but a friend emailed this through to me on his thoughts....FWIW

 

"something to think about re gold.

 

At the end of every quarter large US funds (those with greater than 100mil under management) have to file at 13F form with the SEC. The funds have 45 days after the end of the quarter to file the 13F. This disclosure from each fund discloses their listed US assets.

 

John Paulson is the world's biggest gold bull. He has over $3.5 billion in the Gold etf (GLD). It constitutes about 20% of his fund holdings. As of the 31st of Dec his holding has not dropped when compared to previous quarters. If gold sees any further weakness and his hand is forced ---- it could get very very messy.

 

Any broad US$ strength could see this happen................"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sold at 1608 for 30 point profit.

And I am sure I have left some money on the table.

But tomorrow we have a Neptune Venus conjunction which is bad news for Gold and Silver..

So tomorrow could be the high with a big drop ahead into early March..

All the bears... get ready.

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

 

Yep - I have been sucked into 'buy the miner' to replicate the metal before.....never trust an accountant - its all smoke and mirrors. :haha: - miners, prospectors and company directors are all above board....:doh:

 

So does this mean - gold is actually more expensive to mine and hence shortages of supply are likely to occur, OR the other numbers from the gold miners about reserves and production cant be believed, OR if you have a view on something, a texas hedge aint the best thing to use.

 

................... :offtopic::offtopic:

Did you see the other article about Jamie Dimon saying Banks have too much capital

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/dimon-says-banks-to-have-more-capital-than-they-know-how-to-use.html

 

......somehow in my warped mind i see a lot of this as being related.

Edited by SIUYA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities

 

Gold Miners Come Clean on Costs After Lost 6 Years: Commodities - Bloomberg

 

"Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Goldcorp Inc. (G), the two biggest producers by market value, have begun reporting “all-in sustaining costs” for the first time. The new measure averaged $941 an ounce between the two companies in the fourth quarter. That’s 50 percent higher than the $626 average so-called cash cost they disclosed in the preceding three months."

 

Hi SunTrader,

I have always wondered how Barrick, operating in a First world country can have lower costs than South Africa,a third world country.

Goldfield and Anglogold have always reported FULL costs and they have been severely discounted (.But their PEs are still too high.)

I think Barrick is heading for a BIG fall.

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yep - I have been sucked into 'buy the miner' to replicate the metal before.....never trust an accountant - its all smoke and mirrors. :haha:

.....

Agree and feel the same (or more so) can be said about the bankers.

 

I read the news but trade off the chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi SunTrader,

I have always wondered how Barrick, operating in a First world country can have lower costs than South Africa,a third world country.

Goldfield and Anglogold have always reported FULL costs and they have been severely discounted (.But their PEs are still too high.)

I think Barrick is heading for a BIG fall.

regards

bobc

Could be. I don't follow the miners that closely to have an opinion either way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking only technically- A bounce off the 1530-1550 support zone could be expected on the weekly chart...i'll wait a week more and see if the trends goes bullish at this suppport- then will take a 3-5 weeks long position in it...Gold is precious anyway afterall..:cheers::cheers:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Speaking only technically- A bounce off the 1530-1550 support zone could be expected on the weekly chart...

Careful. The more price visits a zone the more likely, at some point, that zone will no longer hold.

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September, and the limits of a trading range can hold for quite some time.

 

You should know by Monday or Tuesday. Don't know if I'd wait for 50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September, ....

 

Oct -2.94%

Nov -0.28%

Dec -2.32%

Jan -0.73%

Feb -5.09%

 

It is clear to me, at least, once again that the range it has been trading in is not a trading range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
-

Depends on how one defines "trading range":

It depends on how one crop a chart to show their bias.

 

You previously mentioned from high last Sept.

 

This is what it looks like to me, Lower highs, lower lows, lower highs - well you get the picture by now. I hope so anyway:

Gold.thumb.png.7551d7380863ddf1a4e104648b4b6f1f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

XAU/USD DAILY as of Friday, 01 March, 2013

Wave 4 of moderate (13%) amplitude has crossed a threshold where the probability of a failure is higher. This wave could turn into an impulse wave 1 of opposite trend.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 4

Gold / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1,669.25 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.09 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 23.05 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -44.63, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 81.09. This value is in the overbought territory.

gold-wave-d.thumb.png.76d2597b0877cc3eda6587fee1b554f4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
XAU/USD DAILY as of Friday, 01 March, 2013

Wave 4 of moderate (13%) amplitude has crossed a threshold where the probability of a failure is higher. This wave could turn into an impulse wave 1 of opposite trend.

The present wave patterns are:

fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 1

moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 4

Gold / US Dollar is long term Bearish as the 144 days moving average of 1,669.25 is decreasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.09 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 23.05 in the oversold territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at -44.63, in negative territory; this is a bearish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 81.09. This value is in the overbought territory.

 

Well autotrader

Thats quite a mouthfull.

I think EW is fantastic,but I struggle to find the waves before the event.

I think you can invest , but you can only TRADE the 5th wave with some certainity

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It depends on how one crop a chart to show their bias.

 

You previously mentioned from high last Sept.

 

This is what it looks like to me, Lower highs, lower lows, lower highs - well you get the picture by now. I hope so anyway:

 

No bias. An instrument is either trending or ranging. Gold stopped trending in Sep '11. The chart I posted is of that period. You may be referring to some other post when you refer to "last" Sept. Since then it has been bouncing between 1800 and 1535+/-. Each trip from top to bottom within the range may be considered a trend, but it is not the same sort of trend that price is in once it departs from the range, such as the trend beginning in July '11.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No bias. An instrument is either trending or ranging..

 

Your words, not mine:

 

"Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September."

 

But by your definition any market that is not trading at an alltime high is within its previous range and therefore rangebound.

 

And yet again another lower low today inside your trading range. :roll eyes:

 

Did you ever think others look at other timeframes besides .... forever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Your words, not mine:

 

"Gold, however, has been in a trading range since September."

 

But by your definition any market that is not trading at an alltime high is within its previous range and therefore rangebound.

 

And yet again another lower low today inside your trading range. :roll eyes:

 

Did you ever think others look at other timeframes besides .... forever.

 

But I did not say "last" September. My mistake. I apologize.

 

And, no, something that isn't an an all-time high isn't necessarily ranging. It can reverse and begin a downtrend. Look at '00-'02. But if price bounces up and down repeatedly within a range, then it's range-bound, i.e., it's bound by the upper and lower limit of the range. Gold has been bouncing up and down in a range for nearly two years.

 

As for a lower low today, that depends on what it is lower than. It has yet to reach the last swing low on the daily chart.

 

As to whether or not others look at different intervals and timeframes, of course. But it pays to know where and when price is most likely to reverse. Some people like to be in and out, in and out. I'd rather short at resistance or buy at support and just hold it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Muir

On a 2 year chart, gold definitely has been in a trading range, each intermediate swing very tradable.

For 6 months SPX/GC or whatever, $INDU/GDL (or if you use stockcharts, I believe it's it's a colon, e.g. $DOW:GOLD) has been on a beautiful unbroken up trendline.

Last 3 days have been frustrating, as GLD (or GC or MGC) has shown just unbelievable weakness, just as it looked like it could break the trendline on the intermarket charts.

If gold can not rally now with the sequester upon us....

 

GC has been tradable, it's the timeframe used, so yes, anyone that looks at a 2 year chart will see a trading range, pull out further and you can see when the uptrend was broken from 09, pull in and I can see 3 or 4 trends broken hinges...

 

But, yes, it is close the lower range of the 2 year trading range, but seems anemic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But I did not say "last" September. My mistake. I apologize.

 

And, no, something that isn't an an all-time high isn't ......

A lower low is just that.

 

If we can't agree on that basic point.... time to move on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A lower low is just that.

 

If we can't agree on that basic point.... time to move on.

 

Depends on what it's lower than. If lower than the previous day, yes, though that's not necessarily important. If it bounces off support, go long. If it doesn't, keep your short, assuming you went short in October, or at least November.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Depends on what it's lower than. If lower than the previous day, yes, though that's not necessarily important. If it bounces off support, go long. If it doesn't, keep your short, assuming you went short in October, or at least November.

I don't look at everything in the markets through a wyckoff prism.

 

On a daily basis or higher - a lower low (and/or lower high) is important by itself. But what is even more important are lower lowS (and lower highS) and if you like LL/LH pivots since the alltime highs.

 

This I only mention in regards to the trend - not whether or not to go long or short.

 

There are other things (time, price, pattern) I look to to determine trend and also again whether or not and where to enter a trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't look at everything in the markets through a wyckoff prism.

 

On a daily basis or higher - a lower low (and/or lower high) is important by itself. But what is even more important are lower lowS (and lower highS) and if you like LL/LH pivots since the alltime highs.

 

This I only mention in regards to the trend - not whether or not to go long or short.

 

There are other things (time, price, pattern) I look to to determine trend and also again whether or not and where to enter a trade.

 

 

Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35076&stc=1&d=1362319017

5aa711c330289_Goldetfdaily.png.1197c250c2c2b16853ad9f1c4626ba03.png

5aa711c335b1b_golddaily.png.546c3c68d0d3dda6de84901182ba3fe1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't you think gold could be forming a HL at point 2, relative to the low at point 1?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=35076&stc=1&d=1362319017

 

Yes, it's possible. We'll only know in hindsight. The real issue is what, where, when and if are you going to do something about it.

 

Gringo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.