Week 7

[torero 10]

I agree, the bear flag just keeps dragging and nothing decisive has been seen. I've been flat since yesterday. Will wait until something breaks.

[steveshutts 10]

Anna, say you had of taken that short yourself. Would you still be holding the full position? I know that you would be looking for potential demand zones to scale some of the position. Price has failed to trot on past this mornings support at the pivot, would you now be looking at closing this trade?

This is purely hypothetical, of course, but its nice to get ideas. I must admit, if i was in this trade now, i would be thinking that price has lost all momentum with the figures out in 15 mins, i would close it for a small profit.

Scaling has not really been an option on this one yet?

[steveshutts 10]

Looks like that short would have paid off after all!

Very nicely.

[Anna-Maria 10]

I must admit, if i was in this trade now, i would be thinking that price has lost all momentum with the figures out in 15 mins, i would close it for a small profit.

 

Scaling has not really been an option on this one yet?

 

On the prev graph (large hourly) the bog standard wave or trend is down, yeah? Lower highs/lower lows.

 

The highlighted squares showed the confluence (pivot-fib) zone @ 1.9540 as 1st line hurdle for Cable to negate the near term momentum? Price needed to scale that zone in order to flip the bias from short to long?

 

From yesterdays short thru the lower top failure, the position is still live as price has failed to push back & threaten, so we're still in depressed mode? The bias remains to the downside.

 

This morning price has attempted a nudge off the larger 78.6/prev weeks low to attack the last swing high @ c550 & failed at the smaller 61.8% retrace, below todays R1 pivot, printing a favored doji bar with follow thru thrust.

 

Given the near term trend, (& until 9540-50 is hurdled) I'm sniffing shorts. I'm not remotely interested in longs until the Cable Bulls justify the strength.

 

Leading into the London Open, price was merely scraping the ground. It wasn't signalling anything worthy of execution until it popped up to check the space between the main pivot & R1.

 

Had the doji on the smaller frames printed a green bar beyond 9515, then it would have been a case of waiting to see what occured at the next upper level (9540-50)? It didn't, it printed red & the 1 & 5m confirmed the doji retreat in line with the trend.

 

So, according to my reading & near term expectation, it signalled "short continuation". I don't know about your interpretations or judgements etc, but wherever possible, I want to be running with the dominant flow. And the momentum remains down.

 

The 2 graphs below highlight the 15/5m signals with appropriate risk stops to test the intent & continued momentum.

 

If price pops down, stalls & reverses, & threatens my stops then I don't really want to be positioned, as the Bulls are obviously mounting an assault on the primary swing level?

 

The doji/61.8% line never really got threatened on the secondary attempts to re-take the early London spike up? So, the stops were safe.

 

That's my play on the early morning move.

 

Momentum still down: Prev swing high still intact: No real support for Cable Bull activity: Short stance remains the primary objective:

 

Our strategy models will obviously be different, carrying differing intent & objectives. Where you see no scale-out, I see decent 1st line profits? & vice versa.

 

Where my aim is to compound an existing position, yours might be a seperate jobbing or intraday entry. Trade planning is unique to the scenario & is determined by the initial objective(s).

 

To answer your question regards paring/exiting the short this morning? Yes, it was pared off as price failed to move thru the main pivot/38.2 Fib (9490) on the second attempt. The full position wasn't worth risking given the close proximity of the news print. But the fact it was a compound entry, the risk has already been absorbed from the original entry, & the intial trade was valid & in-line with the trend.

 

It's up to the market to tell us we're wrong! My job is to calculate risk, evaluate the potential for the initial move to offer decent reward & execute according to my strat signals. As long as my/our parameters are in synch with leverage & appropriate sizing, if it goes belly up Buk & his hoppo's take up the slack.

 

 

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Anna,

 

Thanks very much for you detailed description of events. I am glad that i am starting to see for myself the analysis that you describe. Although, often lacking the confidence to put these trades on. However, i believe that if i can stick to this strat and keep spotting them then my confidence will grow.

I must admit, i feel more comfortable executing from these timeframes, even though they can prove to be a little tricky at times.

Its interesting that you have not placed your stop at the extreme point, ie outside of the high. Why is that?

[steveshutts 10]

Swissy at interesting confluence zone although showing no signs of stalling as of yet. Just posting, not thinking of trading, waiting for US Trade Balance figures.

Conflicting signal here is the trendline break on the small hourly.

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

I am glad that i am starting to see for myself the analysis that you describe. Although, often lacking the confidence to put these trades on.

 

Its interesting that you have not placed your stop at the extreme point, ie outside of the high. Why is that?

 

Nothing too mysterious re the stops placement. If you look at the 5m, the emergency exit hits on the open of the doji bar (2nd of the 3 bar reversal) on that frame. Anywhere from there to the top of the 3rd bar in that combo (9517) was appropriate for that entry.

 

The confidence comes with familiarization & awareness. That takes a whole lick of time, as it does with any instrument. I'm certain once you cement your appropriate strats together & tune them into the specific environment(s), the confidence with increase.

 

A case of walking before running? Get one fine tuned first before moving onto the next one!

 

Also, as long as you're executing well inside your size to account parameters, there'll be one less problem to concern yourself with. If you can't absorb the odd slippage occurance due to an adverse spike or price shunt, then you're placing excessive emotional stress on your model.

 

That's one of (if not the primary) the most important pieces of the jigsaw when planning your trades

[steveshutts 10]

With regards to the talked about trade. If i had of taken it, there are two ways i could have played the scale out. I could have set a limit at 85 + spread and taken out some there to cover risk. I would have left my stop where it was as moving the stop to break even would not have been wise with the action so close. That was near term support but i would have drastically been cutting my profits short if this ran on, like it has been over the last few days.

It soon becomes obvious on your bottom line, if you do this too often as a couple of losses can put you quickly back at the break even stage. The other option, one which i prefer, but obviously a little trickier to execute, is to use price action to determine the scale out.

The problem us retail traders face is obviously the spreads at these short time frames. If i had of shorted this at 9508 on my platform, by the time it was obvious that 9485 had provided support and a higher low was formed, the price i would have got to scale would have been 9504, which really doesn't warrant a scale?? Its these times which then play on your mind, you know that things aren't looking A1 but you only really have 2 options, close the position or continue with the risk, but knowing that a data release is imminent.

A difficult decision for the inexperienced, especially when it has to be made so quickly. I suppose, i would have closed the trade, taking a miniscule profit, but preserving my capital for another trade.

[steveshutts 10]

Nothing too mysterious re the stops placement. If you look at the 5m, the emergency exit hits on the open of the doji bar (2nd of the 3 bar reversal) on that frame. Anywhere from there to the top of the 3rd bar in that combo (9517) was appropriate for that entry.

 

 

Thats an interesting placement of stops Anna. I have never used the opens of bars, always above/below the trigger.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Its these times which then play on your mind, you know that things aren't looking A1 but you only really have 2 options, close the position or continue with the risk, but knowing that a data release is imminent.

 

A difficult decision for the inexperienced, especially when it has to be made so quickly. I suppose, i would have closed the trade, taking a miniscule profit, but preserving my capital for another trade.

 

Which brings you back to aims & objectives?

 

If you're expending precious energy concerning yourself with hand wringing, then you need to step back & work on your priorities.

 

If your account balance & platform execution deem it unworkable to adopt that specific process, then you need to tailor your strat to those variables?

 

Bounce off the strengths you already possess. Put that on the back burner & focus on the issues which will return the more positive results?

 

If that equates to triggering a couple decent opp's per day & running for 20-30 pips, then so be it.

 

If it means sitting back & waiting for an appropriate (potential) larger opp kicking away from a prev swing level/prior weekly H-L/trend failure zone etc etc & swinging in on lower than normal size to get you into a +1 or 1.5c move staggering larger stops, then that's cool too.

 

But you're gonna have to prioritize & determine which style fits your kit bag & cut it accordingly. Otherwise you'll end up spinning around in circles.

 

More importantly, it'll mess with your head - far more serious!

[Anna-Maria 10]

This appears suspect to a drop back to the 234.70 (50%) support line in the short term unless this mid-term behaviour gets shaken out?

 

 

Gearing up for some each-way action at this interim s&r zone torero huh?

 

That big bad 50% Fib aint too far away if it fails to grab this ledge!!

 

 

[torero 10]

Yes, I'm watching GBPJPY, tex. Although I somehow don't see NY session as risk takers, don't know why. I would rather wait for London or Tokyo to ride it. This is something I noticed about NY, it will continue London's session or reverse it timidly, not too violent. I'm talking mainly about GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Any thoughts on this view?

 

Is this 78.6% retracement (9400) still in play? This looks like a promising area (big 00s).

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

This is something I noticed about NY, it will continue London's session or reverse it timidly, not too violent. I'm talking mainly about GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Any thoughts on this view?

 

Is this 78.6% retracement (9400) still in play? This looks like a promising area (big 00s).

 

 

I think it depends a whole lot on the level reached & range geography during the NY shift torero. Certainly as London closes up for the day prices have a tendancy to drift, but then it's to be expected given the dissipation of volumes. Can't say I've really noticed any other peculiar behaviour other than that.

 

Yes, that Big Figure (1.94) shouldered the slide somewhat huh? It's yet to print a higher high off the initial pullback from todays 50% touch & last weeks lows, which appears to be rejecting this upkick quite nicely. So the Cable Bulls have their work cut out in order to tip the sway from Bearish to Bullish.

 

The mid-term shorts won't become concerned until price begins threatening c9490 (the 78.6 of todays H-L).

 

A decent handful of key data prints still due for release remainder of this week on both sides of the pond, so plenty more opp's to get stuck into no doubt!

 

[steveshutts 10]

Well, over to long bias now with loads of data hitting the tape for the rest of the week. Price currently at resistance housing a confluence of events here:

Previous support zone, weekly pivot, 50% fib from move down off 9730, swing point on the 240.

We have retail sales out in an hour, and if these fall below expected then we could see a challenge of the next major resistance up at 9600, which is the next confluence zone. If its dollar positive then we could well see price get shoved back down to the 9500 zone. However, we will probably see some revised figures from previous months to throw a spanner into the works!

However, i am assuming that it would be more prudent to wait to see what happens at 15:00 when Bernanke hits the mike.

 

 

[torero 10]

Not sure, but your 78.6 is different from mine. I have it right near 9650. I'm considering a short here, as soon as the lower high is made on 15min.

 

[steveshutts 10]

Hi Torero,

If you look at my hourly chart they are in the same place, i have different fibs on my 240 yes.

My bias is long now and will wait. See what happens at the london open. Price has broken out of yesterdays high and may launch an attack on 9700. Retail sales this morning and if we get a positive print for the pound then could see it push on up??

The daily has printed a nice reversal bar on tuesday and then a thrust bar yesterday, so looking like it will be sniffing out 9730?

[torero 10]

Yep, price action sure shows bullish bias so my short hasn't hit yet. It's at the top of the falling channel so I'm neutral for now until breaks out above this channel.

[steveshutts 10]

Yep, price not willing to march on at the moment. I expect most will be waiting for the retail sales print now so this move down may just be profit taking before this release?

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yes, the move up off 1.94, especially thru 9560 has triggered some short covering for sure huh? Very good strength off the pivot yesterday & again today, with little or no pullback.

 

A whole plate full of data printing out of the States later too Steve, with the TICS & Industrial Production high on the watch list.

 

Could be another busy day by the looks!

 

nb: hmm, they didn't like the taste of those Retail Sales numbers then

[steveshutts 10]

That was a poor retail sales figure. Its almost uncanny sometimes how these pre-news setups play out, almost as if the market knows what the releases are going to be.

 

[steveshutts 10]

Price has been shoved back down into the 240 channel. Bit confusing as to where this is going now. Price is currently at a demand zone, confluence area so see what happens here. Could we see price push back up from this area or will the flow continue down?

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

We're back in range mode Steve.

 

I've got interim support kicking in @ 9545-60, with upside barriers around the current range (78.6%) line @ 9660-70.

 

Todays pivot, 9575 is dictating the post UK news blow out. I'm using this small stall area as my guide into NY. If anything appetizing sets up I'll consider a strike, otherwise it'll be sidelined till NY wakes up.

[torero 10]

I guessed I missed my cue to short, I stepped out for a bit and saw the move already finished :mad:

 

Oh well, next one. I want to see a rally before seeing a short setup.

 

I'm still watching GBPJPY and seeing we're near the support area (bottom of bull flag?).

 

[steveshutts 10]

We're back in range mode Steve.

 

I've got interim support kicking in @ 9545-60, with upside barriers around the current range (78.6%) line @ 9660-70.

 

Todays pivot, 9575 is dictating the post UK news blow out. I'm using this small stall area as my guide into NY. If anything appetizing sets up I'll consider a strike, otherwise it'll be sidelined till NY wakes up.

 

Yeah, theres a nice pin bar printed on the hourly and 15, but as you say, have to wait until US comes in now to see whether they bring any demand to the table. When exactly is the US open, i have it as 13:00 GMT, is that correct?

[steveshutts 10]

Anna, will you always wait for US open? If we saw an opp present itself around this time, would you stay out and wait for the US to come in? I know that this period is particularly rangy and dull.