Intervention

[RealDemo 10]

Just wondering if any FX traders out there, have, or are thinking about putting on trades in pairs where the risk of intervention is high at the moment.

 

EURCHF and USDJPY are obviously the two launch pads in question.

 

The SNB have been barking on about defending 1.20, the JCB are rather more mercurial.

[Obsidian 10]

Unless it is a joint intervention, BoJ fails by acting alone. Their previous interventions (recent ones; March, August, October) failed big time. Lately they prefer verbal intervention or try to slow yen's strength.

Personally I don't touch USD/JPY...Sometimes it consolidates in a small range for days, you never know when or if BoJ is coming.

 

 

SNB, on the other hand, gives a certain level. At least we know the level which they want to protect. I am in @ 1.2046 with a stop at 1.1970, will add another small position if it comes to 1.2000/20...tp@1.2200

[RealDemo 10]

..... funny old world init..... I've got an order in at 1970.

 

I've taken their declaration of 1.20 a bit more generally.

[Obsidian 10]

I think there would be a huge dive if we go below 1970

 

you can check open orders on this chart

[Obsidian 10]

...

SNB, on the other hand, gives a certain level. At least we know the level which they want to protect. I am in @ 1.2046 with a stop at 1.1970, will add another small position if it comes to 1.2000/20...tp@1.2200

 

closed 1/2 @ 1.2110...for the rest, waiting for 1.2200

[RealDemo 10]

Nice trade OB, the SNB can relax their trigger finger for a bit.

 

Interested to know why you chose that level.

[Obsidian 10]

Thank you. I think after reaching 1.2235/05, it will go back to 1.2120. I will load longs once again for 1.24

[mohsinqureshii 10]

BOJ cant take a chance to Inter-vein in yen in near future. Its quite enough as they have been trying since a year to weaken yet but failed. I don't see any Intervention by BOJ until June.

[RealDemo 10]

BOJ cant take a chance to Inter-vein in yen in near future. Its quite enough as they have been trying since a year to weaken yet but failed. I don't see any Intervention by BOJ until June.

 

What's happening in June?

[Obsidian 10]

something is happening with jpy today:roll eyes:

 

meanwhile I think I may get a chance to add eur/chf longs today...

[RealDemo 10]

BOJ left rates unchanged but increased asset buying fund from Yen55 trln to Yen65 trln, all to be spent on JGBs. They also introduced a 1% policy inflation target.

 

USDJPY breaking up through a very old TL, maybe this is a bottom.

[Obsidian 10]

Thanks for the info, I had missed that.

[mohsinqureshii 10]

What's happening in June?

 

Something will happen in June as well

[Obsidian 10]

Monthly chart looks interesting, if can close above 80, there will be a potential to visit 83.50

[RealDemo 10]

I'm looking for 78.25's area to get long.

 

They're getting crafty....

 

Japan MOF data confirms 'stealth' intervention in Oct-Dec | Reuters

[Obsidian 10]

The current euro/Swiss franc level of around 1.20 isn't a balanced rate, and isn't ideal or beneficial for the Swiss economy, Swiss National Bank deputy director Thomas Moser said in an article published Friday.

 

Moser, who is widely tipped to replace former central bank president Philipp Hildebrand on the SNB's three-person government board, reiterated that the franc remains "highly valued" but will weaken over time.

 

"The weakening [of the franc] could take place via the nominal exchange rate, as well as through the inflationary differential with its trading partners, although a such correction normally only occurs over a longer time frame," Moser wrote in an article in the economy ministry's monthly newsletter.

 

The SNB's introduction of a ceiling for the franc at CHF1.20 per euro in September "has reduced the massive over valuation of the franc and limited the potential damage to the Swiss economy," Moser said.

 

Still, "the situation remains difficult for large sectors of the Swiss economy, and the franc remains highly valued," he said.

 

Moser was Hildebrand's deputy in the department dealing with monetary policy and international affairs.

 

DowJones

[Obsidian 10]

Monthly chart looks interesting, if can close above 80, there will be a potential to visit 83.50

 

this will be an interesting week for usd/jpy...I think it may not be able to pass this pesky 80 level at first try. If that is the case, back to 78.50...

[Obsidian 10]

closed 1/2 @ 1.2110...for the rest, waiting for 1.2200

 

hmm eur/chf back to 1.2054, added more to position that I have been holding

[henryduncan12 10]

I did not try, not have plan to put trades in pairs specially when the risk of intervention is high.

[Obsidian 10]

being on the same side with the ones doing the intervention is not a risk:roll eyes:

[Obsidian 10]

hmm eur/chf back to 1.2054, added more to position that I have been holding

 

this one is moving pretty slow but still making pips...closed 1/2 @ 1.2087

[Obsidian 10]

hmm eur/chf back to 1.2054, added more to position that I have been holding

 

history repeats itself...will buy more again around 1.2040 level

[Obsidian 10]

longing (again) right after I click submit reply button