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Intervention

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Just wondering if any FX traders out there, have, or are thinking about putting on trades in pairs where the risk of intervention is high at the moment.

 

EURCHF and USDJPY are obviously the two launch pads in question.

 

The SNB have been barking on about defending 1.20, the JCB are rather more mercurial.

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Unless it is a joint intervention, BoJ fails by acting alone. Their previous interventions (recent ones; March, August, October) failed big time. Lately they prefer verbal intervention or try to slow yen's strength.

Personally I don't touch USD/JPY...Sometimes it consolidates in a small range for days, you never know when or if BoJ is coming.

 

 

SNB, on the other hand, gives a certain level. At least we know the level which they want to protect. I am in @ 1.2046 with a stop at 1.1970, will add another small position if it comes to 1.2000/20...tp@1.2200

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...

SNB, on the other hand, gives a certain level. At least we know the level which they want to protect. I am in @ 1.2046 with a stop at 1.1970, will add another small position if it comes to 1.2000/20...tp@1.2200

 

closed 1/2 @ 1.2110...for the rest, waiting for 1.2200

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BOJ cant take a chance to Inter-vein in yen in near future. Its quite enough as they have been trying since a year to weaken yet but failed. I don't see any Intervention by BOJ until June.

 

What's happening in June?

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BOJ left rates unchanged but increased asset buying fund from Yen55 trln to Yen65 trln, all to be spent on JGBs. They also introduced a 1% policy inflation target.

 

USDJPY breaking up through a very old TL, maybe this is a bottom.

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The current euro/Swiss franc level of around 1.20 isn't a balanced rate, and isn't ideal or beneficial for the Swiss economy, Swiss National Bank deputy director Thomas Moser said in an article published Friday.

 

Moser, who is widely tipped to replace former central bank president Philipp Hildebrand on the SNB's three-person government board, reiterated that the franc remains "highly valued" but will weaken over time.

 

"The weakening [of the franc] could take place via the nominal exchange rate, as well as through the inflationary differential with its trading partners, although a such correction normally only occurs over a longer time frame," Moser wrote in an article in the economy ministry's monthly newsletter.

 

The SNB's introduction of a ceiling for the franc at CHF1.20 per euro in September "has reduced the massive over valuation of the franc and limited the potential damage to the Swiss economy," Moser said.

 

Still, "the situation remains difficult for large sectors of the Swiss economy, and the franc remains highly valued," he said.

 

Moser was Hildebrand's deputy in the department dealing with monetary policy and international affairs.

 

DowJones

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Monthly chart looks interesting, if can close above 80, there will be a potential to visit 83.50

 

this will be an interesting week for usd/jpy...I think it may not be able to pass this pesky 80 level at first try. If that is the case, back to 78.50...

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