Strongest Trend & Why

[pipsaholic 10]

Hi,

 

Just looking for some input from the pros about these pairs which have MA's added to them, which they would feel would be the strongest going up/down? Is the steeper the MA's the healthier and stronger the trend going up n doon?

 

Thanks.

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi,

 

Just looking for some input from the pros about these pairs which have MA's added to them, which they would feel would be the strongest going up/down? Is the steeper the MA's the healthier and stronger the trend going up n doon?

 

Thanks.

 

you have a few weeks of data.

 

Take the MAs off, or whatever they are, change the timeframe to weekly, and post the same charts with a min of 150 data points, showing only the weekly bars. Then do the same with daily and show about a year of daily data of whatever fits on your chart so that they days are still distinguishable. If it is not clear at that point, then post the charts and I will help you.

[pipsaholic 10]

you have a few weeks of data.

 

Take the MAs off, or whatever they are, change the timeframe to weekly, and post the same charts with a min of 150 data points, showing only the weekly bars. Then do the same with daily and show about a year of daily data of whatever fits on your chart so that they days are still distinguishable. If it is not clear at that point, then post the charts and I will help you.

 

 

Okay I have attached can you tell the strength of the trend without MA's?

[MightyMouse 12]

Okay I have attached can you tell the strength of the trend without MA's?

 

euro is towards the bottom of a large range.Hard to really say it is trending on the weekly. if anything a slight short bias with lower swing highs and lower swing lows

 

usd cad is in a down trend.

 

Audusd is in an uptrend

 

nzdusd is in an up trend

 

usd jpy is in a down trend

 

gbpusd is ranging on the weekly. looks like it is coiling up for something.

 

eurogbp looks like some sort of range too.

 

usd chf is in a downtrend

 

 

With all of them, look for HH HL on the swings for up trend continuation or LL LH for down trend continuation on the swings.

 

A reversal, meaning a hh and hl in a downtrend on the swings might mean that it is entering into a range, so don't jump the gun and think it is in an uptrend.

 

To take trades, take it off of the daily. On the daily look for breakouts in the direction of the weekly trend.

 

To trade the ranging weeklies, enter using the daily and exit at the edge of the ranges.

 

If you get stopped out, re-enter. When a market is trending on a weekly chart, you are foolish to assume that it is going to end the day you enter if it goes against you. Your timing might be off, but the trend didn't end. So, enter again and again until price moves away from your entry. Eventually it will as it always does. Most fools start to play it the other way.

 

A market usually goes from uptrend to range to uptrend or down trend,. or downtrend to range to downtrend or uptrend, so you usually get a range in between moves. You won't know how far you are from that range until the range develops. It could very well develop around your entry which could suck, but you will never figure out if it will before hand.

 

Its not rocket science. it is patience and confidence.

[MightyMouse 12]

Okay I have attached can you tell the strength of the trend without MA's?

If you were to update the EU/USD daily it looks like we are developing a daily bar for 2/6/2012 that will be a LL LH. If in fact it does close that way, then I would suspect that The euro will continue downward. The risk is to a max of 1.3237 assuming the bar closes where it is at 1.3044, then the risk is just under 200 pips. Entry could be on the open of tomorrow 2/7/2012 if today is in fact a LL LH. You can time an entry with a hell of a lot less risk than 200 pips and still get in for the ride. The 1.3237 area is where the short trade is no longer valid. I would also exit if on 2/7 the day turned into a HH HL or exit on 2/8/2012 if 2/7/2012 turned into an inside or outside day and 2/8/2012 turned into a hh hl day, without it breaching the 1.3237 area.

 

The area of interest is down at the 1.2628 area. there are lots and lots of stops below there. If we begin a series of LL LH, then that area could become a reality and it is a decent risk reward situation if you risk less than 200 pips. The next area of interest is on the weekly at 1.1874. On the weekly we could potentially be developing a LL LH after an inside bar on the weekly. If that happens, then there is a good chance further LL LHs and it could become a monster short. If you are short and the weekly turns negative as described, then you have to switch to managing the trade by following the weekly chart.

 

I will do this trade almost as described, but with very small size and tiny risk. I will exit and reenter if I have to and will not give a blow by blow. I may get stopped out and get back in at a worse price or better price multiple times. It really makes no difference to me. I do not try to short the high and am only interested in being in the right direction and not being led to slaughter.

 

I am not fond of currencies because there are is no decent volume measurement and I rely on volume. To me this is like flying with one eye, but it does look like it has decent potential and therefore worth the small risk.

 

Incidentally, my day and week opens and closes coincide with the futures. I do not use a currency broker.

Edited February 6, 2012 by MightyMouse

[MightyMouse 12]

The euro has made a lower low in the current week and assuming we do not make a higher high for the week, we will have one week of ll and lower highs. The daily has a nice series of ll and lh, which certainly looks like the makings of a down trend. In order to say so, you really need agreement on the weekly time frame so we'll see what happens by Friday. The next area of support is about the 128.80 area and then there is the other at the 126.270-.280 area. There are lots of long stops that will form around those levels if they are not there already. There are also stops above 133.25.

 

I am short and I still have risk exposure until we have a lh and ll under 1.3. When we do that, I'll move my stop to BE. If we break the 1.2628 lows, I'll start adding to the position and maintain a be stop. My position is a second attempt at the short. The first resulted in a small loss.

 

The move could just be movement in a range or it could be part of a sloppy, slow downtrend that began from the high of the weekly range in May 2011. I am anticipating a push lower to the recent lows in January and the the low set back in june of 2010. If we push to the 1.16 area, I will dump everything somewhere around there. But, it all really depends on what happens between now and then. There is plenty room to make money on the downside if this continues. You do not need to catch the very high for a short.

 

I do believe that, as a yacht dwelling acquaintance of mine has put it, we have a platypus event in the euro.

[MightyMouse 12]

I am taking a third stab at shorting the euro. The first two resulted in small losses.

[Obsidian 10]

1.3050 does not seem so far