Taylor Trading

[elovemer 10]

. yes i am market specific. yes i have monday as a sell day.

my count is not so important... because i am not doing pure taylor.

what i am doing is looking for a low to be put in .... and then looking to long on a lower low after a small bounce from that low

i have tuesday as a short sell day

 

i am expecting a gap up .. .although anything can happen in the market and it always does happen

if what you don't expect to happen didn't happen, there would be no market.

 

Just curious about your cycle days, you have monday as a sell day, I have monday as a short sell day, so I went short today above last Fridays high of 1348. How long ago did you begin your cycle count and are you market specific

[Gann Trader 10]

According to Taylor, once you start your cycle count from a major high or low, there is no need to change the 3 day pattern because that cycle will continue into infinity. What is your opinion about that, do you believe if a cycle that started 5 years ago for example, is it still reliable today, and do you further believe that if you and I are trading the same market but due to the fact that we used a different high or low as our start date our cycle falls on different days, therefore how accurate or in accurate could our trades be.

Your thoughts would be appreciated

[elovemer 10]

In Taylor's book, he describes picking the lowest point in the last 10 sessions. and to choose this as buy day .

So accordingly, which day you pick to start your cycle is not so important as following the trading rules Taylor sets out in his book.

I remember struggling with the same idea you are referring to .... the idea that if you don't have the right day, every thing will be off.

But if you follow the cycle for any length of time, you will notice that it goes out of whack quite often. It doesn't work perfectly.

I mean the low or buy point does not always come on buy day.

This is why I modified my system to account for this.

for example. if the day before buy day is an up day, i don't put much stock in buying on buy day .

however if SS day is a down day , i put more stock in a buy point on buy day.

the best scenario is if a down is put in on SS day , and then a bounce.

after the bounce, if the low is retested on buy day .... that is my ultimate buy scenario... assuming an up trend of course.

however, many times no low is put in.

so what i do is i just wait for a low to be put in.... then look to buy a retest of this low.

this retest may or may not come on buy day.

regardless of this... i keep the count the same.

the only purpose of the count .... is to give you the feel of the 3 day cycle.

for example.

let's say you buy on one day. then you want to close out the next day.

or two days later. but definitely 3 days later.

if you don't keep a count, then you don't have the sense of when to close out or when to look for a short in an up trend.

for example, 3 days up from the last low is a good time to look for a short.

 

i hope this helps.

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Your thoughts would be appreciated

[SILVER 10]

I have the same take on the count,it is just a naming system primarily to me.What I find more important is how Taylor characterised the typical behaviour of the labeled days and to apply this to the actual unfolding market regardless the name according to the cycle.Taylor describes the buy points as corrections and depending on up- or downtrend there are between 1 and 3 corrections possible,sometimes in an uptrend there is only one on SSD which elovemer already described,in this case the retest of the SSL on BD would fail which is according to Taylor a sign for higher prices for at least one day.

[elovemer 10]

low definitely put in on SS day

 

but looks like slim chance of a test of this low for buy day wednesday

[elovemer 10]

let's say you read Taylor's book and you say " this guy is drunk "

 

well as someone pointed out much earlier in the thread .... one of the gold nuggets of his system is high made first and low made first

 

several things

1. if there is a low made first and early .... you expect a high to be made last

... you are playing with the odds on your side

2. if there is an up trend, you are looking at lows made first...... as opportunity to go long

3. if there is an up trend, and it looks like a high is being made first.... you look to either stay out or wait for a low to be put in

 

when there is normal range, there are usually maximum two trends during a session

 

when range is low ....( for example when the first move doesn't go far enough )....

the day might end up a low range day .... and you probably want to stay out completely

.....that is where Taylor's book comes in... knowing about how far a move should go

 

for me it is about 10 points... for others it might be something else

 

the point is ... Taylor is a drunken genius, if you just take what works and make it your own

.... saying his methods don't work in today's markets is just nonsense.

 

in an up trend.... there are not many good chances to go long....

however following Taylor's rules..... will identify these opportunities for you when they are available .... if you use them

 

I would love for someone perusing this thread to come up with any information about this guy ... because i think very little is known about him aside from his journal/book he put out

[Gann Trader 10]

That was an excellent assessment you made about Taylor and his method. I am beginning to get comfortable with the Taylor method, it took me several weeks of studying and practicing, but from what I have seen so far, its quite accurate. I am on a different cycle day from you but you were right it does not matter because I can see that the pattern is still effective, I covered my short and went long this morning while the market was selling off. Today was a buy day for me, for most of the day the market was down then in the last 30 minutes, it reversed and closed up, again proving that the Taylor method is alive and well.

 

You are right when you say that there is not much known about Taylor and like you I would like to learn more about him and his past. Someone who I have never met gave me his book about 10 years ago but it was only about 3 weeks ago after reading a thread on this site that I decided to open the book and discover what was so fascinating about his method. It was a very difficult learning curve as most anyone reading his book for the first time will realize but the technique is deadly accurate.

[elovemer 10]

taylor says buy day is a long below SS day

by my count wednesday is buy day ... a long below the low of tuesday

for me .... a low put in on tuesday set up a long on wednesday .... however globex messed that up

here is where i differ....

taylor would say thursday is sell day and to just stay out.

however i say ... there is a low put in on tuesday ... and the same low put in on wednesday

 

for me that sets up a buy point 10 points below the low for a buy point on thursday

thursday is sell day but for me it doesn't matter

 

the chance for a buy point is set up ... that is how i differ from taylor who would say to just stay out on sell day

 

there is also friday's low ... and ten point below 38 is 28 ... which is below friday's low as well

 

the more people... that can be wrong at once.... the bigger the opportunity for those who are right

[Gann Trader 10]

elovemer, Just curious to know how long have you been studying the Taylor method, you seem quite knowledgeable with his method

[SILVER 10]

taylor says buy day is a long below SS day

by my count wednesday is buy day ... a long below the low of tuesday

for me .... a low put in on tuesday set up a long on wednesday .... however globex messed that up

here is where i differ....

taylor would say thursday is sell day and to just stay out.

however i say ... there is a low put in on tuesday ... and the same low put in on wednesday

 

for me that sets up a buy point 10 points below the low for a buy point on thursday

thursday is sell day but for me it doesn't matter

 

the chance for a buy point is set up ... that is how i differ from taylor who would say to just stay out on sell day

 

there is also friday's low ... and ten point below 38 is 28 ... which is below friday's low as well

 

the more people... that can be wrong at once.... the bigger the opportunity for those who are right

 

I am always confused by your wording,so not sure if I got you right....the way I get it you describe a buy day violation which if it occurs first can be bought and sold with BDL as selling objective(p.22)

[elovemer 10]

i am saying that buy day would have been a buy point if it had not been up

i am saying the buy point is delayed by a day .... because buy day did not test the low that was put in

this is not to say that a buy point on sell day would stick.....

... it is just to say that there is an opportunity

 

i am saying i am looking for a buy point here .... on sell day .... 10 points below the low .... around 28

.... however if it gaps down 20 points, the buy point would be lower

 

having said all of this, i think the whole past week looks like distribution to me ...

.....20 point ranges... with gaps each day .... highs and lows all equal ... all occurring at swing highs... to me that represents possible distribution

....and the more days that occur like this ... the more distribution it represents to me

 

the taylor method is nothing more than trying to skillfully buy lows and sell highs

after all.... the best way to buy low sell high is to try to buy lows and sell highs... with the trend

 

however if tomorrow gaps down 20 points, then i would advocate waiting for a further 10 point down move during trading hours to choose a buy point

 

daily upside targets have been hit already... if an hourly chart lower low is put in tomorrow, then all it takes is an hourly chart lower high... to start a new down trend

 

 

I am always confused by your wording,so not sure if I got you right....the way I get it you describe a buy day violation which if it occurs first can be bought and sold with BDL as selling objective(p.22)

[elovemer 10]

i saw no buyers at all today .... pretty sneaky after that premarket 10 point move up

 

that is how they do it....

[CYP 10]

i saw no buyers at all today .... pretty sneaky after that premarket 10 point move up

 

that is how they do it....

 

Elovemer - how do you decide that there were no buyers today? What are the clues that tells you there are no buyers? Is it just lack of volume? Bid/Ask price action?

 

I'm curious to know how you confirmed your observation of no buyers? And did this change your mind regarding the trade?

 

I think these are the observations that can help make a person a better trader. One of my goals is to make better observations of the market and try to capture the clues that are given.

 

Thanks for the TTT thread.

 

CYP

[elovemer 10]

globex..........

 

==================================================

for me .... i would like to see a low put in on monday

 

then a test of that low

..... if there was a bounce after the low, then a test the following day

 

..... if there was no bounce.... and the low was put in at the close, then a test of that low during globex session

[elovemer 10]

no bounce .... so globex is buy point

 

however didn't make it to 10 points below the low

[elovemer 10]

...CYP...

because every place buyers should have stepped in ... there was no follow thru

taking it down one way 20 points ... traps the small longs .....

they can't get out ... fuel for thursday

 

first group of 10 point buyers were trapped .... 2nd group of 20 point buyers were also trapped

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this is an interesting scenario which doesn't happen very often ... but is repeated.

NO BOUNCE

...

if there is a bounce before the close on buy day .... the buy point on sell day is set up for a test of the buy day low

however there was no bounce and all longs are trapped

in this case ... the buy point comes during globex ... below the same day's low

 

this is tricky.... basically if you didn't buy during globex .... you missed out completely

----------------------------

 

if going by strict Taylor rules.... this was buying a higher low on buy day

however Taylor would say don't buy a higher low if it occurs at the close

so by strict Taylor rules... there would have been no long at all

 

i may be incorrect about that but i believe that's it according to Taylor

 

Elovemer - how do you decide that there were no buyers today? What are the clues that tells you there are no buyers? Is it just lack of volume? Bid/Ask price action?

I'm curious to know how you confirmed your observation of no buyers? And did this change your mind regarding the trade?

I think these are the observations that can help make a person a better trader. One of my goals is to make better observations of the market and try to capture the clues that are given.

Thanks for the TTT thread.

CYP

[elovemer 10]

strict Taylor rules say go long on a low made first ... below the low of SS day

 

the low below SS day low .... only occurred during globex

 

so if you include globex ... you are fine if you take a low made last (globex)

 

if not .... you missed it

[elovemer 10]

i believe cash is closed on monday

 

so buy day..... tuesday and friday

--------------------------------------------

 

following week buy day ........... wednesday

 

after that week buy day ............ monday and thursday

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i traded nq today .... just not enough volatility on es on fridays

[elovemer 10]

what are the chances of tuesday hitting the low of sell day and Short sell day ?

 

well it can't... unless it is done during globex session

 

 

possible higher buy day low then

[SILVER 10]

----------------------------

 

if going by strict Taylor rules.... this was buying a higher low on buy day

however Taylor would say don't buy a higher low if it occurs at the close

so by strict Taylor rules... there would have been no long at all

 

i may be incorrect about that but i believe that's it according to Taylor

 

Taylor (p.30) advocates the buying of the higher bottom even if the low is made last...however...one is to watch the opening then and if the instrument does not hold the gain one should sell on any rally after the decline with the BD low as selling objective.....I personally favor your not going long at all as it relates to the fact that with a low made last chances are the occurence of a BDV and the not penetrating of the BDH as selling objective,I find it a safer play to go for the BDV on sell day.

[elovemer 10]

buy day

market opened off

high made first on a sluggish rally

failed to penetrate Short Sale high

sell short

cover on decline on penetration of low

buy under is 1.1/4 points from short sale high

buy around .. ..

market has time to rally

if no rally sell before close

rallied and closed strong

expect up opening and further rally tomorrow

[elovemer 10]

opened at previous close to down

next immediate transactions are on the upside

watch the .... as the selling objective for your long stock

sell on the penetration thru and above ....

high being made last

close at high for the day

expect up opening tomorrow for a short sale on penetration of of today's high

[elovemer 10]

opened up with a penetration of ....

high being made first

sell short

this is the 3rd day up from monday

market active and declining at .... is off .... points

fairly severe reaction

market trading around this low

cover short

decline can continue or can rally

being out, stay out

middle closing between high and low

tomorrow is a buy day

watch .... at or below for a chance to buy

on an up opening and further rally tomorrow try to get out a short sale

[elovemer 10]

market opened down and declining

no chance for a short

good action for a buy

low being made first at ....

the buy under is .....

this is about the average unit in the buy under column

buy at the market

don't expect a big rally following a big D column unit decline

market not rallying

looks like a flat closing

sell out before the close

expect down opening tomorrow with a chance to buy a buy day low violation made first

[elovemer 10]

opening down and declining

.... is now a ... cents violation obeing made first

buy at the market

sell out on any rally before the close

watch the ... price

this is the selling objective

at thru and above

this is the 3rd day down from ....

the strong closing and on high for the day is short covering and could be the end of the rally

on account of the violation the price may fail to go as high tomorrow

many times the high is made on the next buying day