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Obsidian

CoT Charts

By Obsidian, in Forex

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ForexTraderX    10

ForexTraderX
Posted

nice to see some COT discussion. One of my old favorites...and still the best thing i've found to act as an "indicator" of impending trend reversals... not just retracements.

 

Wanted to post up a link to the CAD futures COT chart here... i'm kinda thinking... maybe it's not a really good idea to get sooperlong the XXX/CAD markets.

 

Here's the link... I'd be interested to hear any thoughts on the chart...one way or the other:

 

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p17.gif

 

FTX.

 

DISCLAIMER: "in the interest of full legal disclosure, the accounts of ForexTraderX are currently short the CAD against several other G8 currencies. This disclosure is offered to prevent confusion or hurt feelings in the extremely likely event that ForexTraderX dumps his position in CAD short just as your long CAD stop is hit. The accounts of ForexTraderX and the family of ForexTraderX thank you in advance."

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kuokam    10

kuokam
Posted

Agree with your bias but, as always, the COT is an indicator and you still have to time your trade. Now, this an extreme!

BTW do you think Upperman a better teacher on the subject than Larry Williams?

 

 

nice to see some COT discussion. One of my old favorites...and still the best thing i've found to act as an "indicator" of impending trend reversals... not just retracements.

 

Wanted to post up a link to the CAD futures COT chart here... i'm kinda thinking... maybe it's not a really good idea to get sooperlong the XXX/CAD markets.

 

Here's the link... I'd be interested to hear any thoughts on the chart...one way or the other:

 

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p17.gif

 

FTX.

 

DISCLAIMER: "in the interest of full legal disclosure, the accounts of ForexTraderX are currently short the CAD against several other G8 currencies. This disclosure is offered to prevent confusion or hurt feelings in the extremely likely event that ForexTraderX dumps his position in CAD short just as your long CAD stop is hit. The accounts of ForexTraderX and the family of ForexTraderX thank you in advance."

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ForexTraderX    10

ForexTraderX
Posted
Agree with your bias but, as always, the COT is an indicator and you still have to time your trade. Now, this an extreme!

BTW do you think Upperman a better teacher on the subject than Larry Williams?

 

Ya, your right Kuokam about the timing. It's great for magnitude and reversal (as opposed to just retracement), but bad about timing.

 

Buuuuut... the longer term chart price action i'm seeing on a variety of major currencies priced against the CAD is looking pretty good as well, and against the comdolls in general look good (I mean daily, weekly, and monthly charts)

 

Don't want to take away from the thread here being COT, so i'll leave that for another time and place... but, yea. I think timing is right about now for the CAD... ESPECIALLY considering the Bank of Canada's recent dovish talk, "accomodative policy" blah blah...and the increased expectation that they will lower their interest rate, that WILL be the likely catalyst for a CAD short squeeze of record proprotions. And... I think they are meeting this week? So... anyway. Been short cad this week, up over 100 pips in some pairs (I have more than 1 trade on shorting CAD), and I'm in no rush to take more profits yet... next stop, 150 - 200 pips.

 

Ok, a little luck here, of course... but just saying there are more reasons than COT alone for my belief here.

 

As far as Upperman... I didn't even know that was a guy, or that he teaches COT. I know of larry williams, and believe he is very good. But have no direct familiarity with his work. Couldn't help you there.

 

FTX

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kuokam    10

kuokam
Posted

I don't trade CAD but if my calendar is up to date, the next rate statement is next week on the 23.

 

 

Ya, your right Kuokam about the timing. It's great for magnitude and reversal (as opposed to just retracement), but bad about timing.

 

Buuuuut... the longer term chart price action i'm seeing on a variety of major currencies priced against the CAD is looking pretty good as well, and against the comdolls in general look good (I mean daily, weekly, and monthly charts)

 

Don't want to take away from the thread here being COT, so i'll leave that for another time and place... but, yea. I think timing is right about now for the CAD... ESPECIALLY considering the Bank of Canada's recent dovish talk, "accomodative policy" blah blah...and the increased expectation that they will lower their interest rate, that WILL be the likely catalyst for a CAD short squeeze of record proprotions. And... I think they are meeting this week? So... anyway. Been short cad this week, up over 100 pips in some pairs (I have more than 1 trade on shorting CAD), and I'm in no rush to take more profits yet... next stop, 150 - 200 pips.

 

Ok, a little luck here, of course... but just saying there are more reasons than COT alone for my belief here.

 

As far as Upperman... I didn't even know that was a guy, or that he teaches COT. I know of larry williams, and believe he is very good. But have no direct familiarity with his work. Couldn't help you there.

 

FTX

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ForexTraderX    10

ForexTraderX
Posted
I don't trade CAD but if my calendar is up to date, the next rate statement is next week on the 23.

 

Next week then you say? Ok... well, guess I'll continue to look for CAD shorting opportunities between now and then.

 

IMO, the degree of "net shorts" we've seen in the euro until just before the bottom a few months ago, and the overall large scale devaluation of the euro against the comdolls since the financial crisis, and the record setting net longs seen in the CAD right now., I think the EUR/CAD is best long bet out there right now (of the G8 currency pairs), for longer term trades, and I'm thinking we'll retest 1.4000 or higher in the next 12-18 months.

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kuokam    10

kuokam
Posted

It might be time to buy the metals. The specs increased positions, and open interest is up as well. But that of silver at a long term high. Does that mean anything?

 

E-mini SP500, 2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

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