Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Obsidian

CoT Charts

Recommended Posts

nice to see some COT discussion. One of my old favorites...and still the best thing i've found to act as an "indicator" of impending trend reversals... not just retracements.

 

Wanted to post up a link to the CAD futures COT chart here... i'm kinda thinking... maybe it's not a really good idea to get sooperlong the XXX/CAD markets.

 

Here's the link... I'd be interested to hear any thoughts on the chart...one way or the other:

 

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p17.gif

 

FTX.

 

DISCLAIMER: "in the interest of full legal disclosure, the accounts of ForexTraderX are currently short the CAD against several other G8 currencies. This disclosure is offered to prevent confusion or hurt feelings in the extremely likely event that ForexTraderX dumps his position in CAD short just as your long CAD stop is hit. The accounts of ForexTraderX and the family of ForexTraderX thank you in advance."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree with your bias but, as always, the COT is an indicator and you still have to time your trade. Now, this an extreme!

BTW do you think Upperman a better teacher on the subject than Larry Williams?

 

 

nice to see some COT discussion. One of my old favorites...and still the best thing i've found to act as an "indicator" of impending trend reversals... not just retracements.

 

Wanted to post up a link to the CAD futures COT chart here... i'm kinda thinking... maybe it's not a really good idea to get sooperlong the XXX/CAD markets.

 

Here's the link... I'd be interested to hear any thoughts on the chart...one way or the other:

 

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p17.gif

 

FTX.

 

DISCLAIMER: "in the interest of full legal disclosure, the accounts of ForexTraderX are currently short the CAD against several other G8 currencies. This disclosure is offered to prevent confusion or hurt feelings in the extremely likely event that ForexTraderX dumps his position in CAD short just as your long CAD stop is hit. The accounts of ForexTraderX and the family of ForexTraderX thank you in advance."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agree with your bias but, as always, the COT is an indicator and you still have to time your trade. Now, this an extreme!

BTW do you think Upperman a better teacher on the subject than Larry Williams?

 

Ya, your right Kuokam about the timing. It's great for magnitude and reversal (as opposed to just retracement), but bad about timing.

 

Buuuuut... the longer term chart price action i'm seeing on a variety of major currencies priced against the CAD is looking pretty good as well, and against the comdolls in general look good (I mean daily, weekly, and monthly charts)

 

Don't want to take away from the thread here being COT, so i'll leave that for another time and place... but, yea. I think timing is right about now for the CAD... ESPECIALLY considering the Bank of Canada's recent dovish talk, "accomodative policy" blah blah...and the increased expectation that they will lower their interest rate, that WILL be the likely catalyst for a CAD short squeeze of record proprotions. And... I think they are meeting this week? So... anyway. Been short cad this week, up over 100 pips in some pairs (I have more than 1 trade on shorting CAD), and I'm in no rush to take more profits yet... next stop, 150 - 200 pips.

 

Ok, a little luck here, of course... but just saying there are more reasons than COT alone for my belief here.

 

As far as Upperman... I didn't even know that was a guy, or that he teaches COT. I know of larry williams, and believe he is very good. But have no direct familiarity with his work. Couldn't help you there.

 

FTX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't trade CAD but if my calendar is up to date, the next rate statement is next week on the 23.

 

 

Ya, your right Kuokam about the timing. It's great for magnitude and reversal (as opposed to just retracement), but bad about timing.

 

Buuuuut... the longer term chart price action i'm seeing on a variety of major currencies priced against the CAD is looking pretty good as well, and against the comdolls in general look good (I mean daily, weekly, and monthly charts)

 

Don't want to take away from the thread here being COT, so i'll leave that for another time and place... but, yea. I think timing is right about now for the CAD... ESPECIALLY considering the Bank of Canada's recent dovish talk, "accomodative policy" blah blah...and the increased expectation that they will lower their interest rate, that WILL be the likely catalyst for a CAD short squeeze of record proprotions. And... I think they are meeting this week? So... anyway. Been short cad this week, up over 100 pips in some pairs (I have more than 1 trade on shorting CAD), and I'm in no rush to take more profits yet... next stop, 150 - 200 pips.

 

Ok, a little luck here, of course... but just saying there are more reasons than COT alone for my belief here.

 

As far as Upperman... I didn't even know that was a guy, or that he teaches COT. I know of larry williams, and believe he is very good. But have no direct familiarity with his work. Couldn't help you there.

 

FTX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't trade CAD but if my calendar is up to date, the next rate statement is next week on the 23.

 

Next week then you say? Ok... well, guess I'll continue to look for CAD shorting opportunities between now and then.

 

IMO, the degree of "net shorts" we've seen in the euro until just before the bottom a few months ago, and the overall large scale devaluation of the euro against the comdolls since the financial crisis, and the record setting net longs seen in the CAD right now., I think the EUR/CAD is best long bet out there right now (of the G8 currency pairs), for longer term trades, and I'm thinking we'll retest 1.4000 or higher in the next 12-18 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It might be time to buy the metals. The specs increased positions, and open interest is up as well. But that of silver at a long term high. Does that mean anything?

 

E-mini SP500, 2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • re TikTok Recently metafakebook made what was apparently a move to stay aligned with ‘culture’ - no more fact ‘checking’, no more censorhip... basically ‘Zucker’ was shown that his mission was failing because they were only building profiles on ‘useful idiots’ instead of those who oppose the great centralization  (... just like long ago he only saw campus potential and had to be shown the promise and rewarded for fronting the great spyware and social engineering project called Fakebook)... ie they could have replaced him long ago In the same vein, who holds ‘title’ to tiktok doesn’t matter either... it will remain a spyware project regardless of who ‘buys’ it... and the data will forever be available to the CCP Just sayin’
    • Omobola,  As an engineer surely you have money to buy a ticket to Monterey, Mexico... just a hop and a jump from there to Texas...  hth zdo 
    • Date: 20th January 2025.   The NASDAQ Rises As Trump Inauguration Edges Closer!   US indices increased in value for the first time after struggling for 5 consecutive weeks. Of the main US indices the NASDAQ witnessed the strongest gains (4.12%). Risk indicators point to a higher risk appetite under the new US President, Donald Trump. President Trump's inauguration will take place this afternoon and has promised to sign over 100 consecutive orders within his first week. NASDAQ - Higher Investor Confidence! NASDAQ traders begin to stomach less frequent interest rate adjustments, the market turns its attention to earnings and Trump’s presidency. Investors are becoming more bullish under expectations that Trump will apply policies to support the US economy and entice further investment into the US stock market. A "risk-on" sentiment is evident in today's sessions, reflected in risk indicators like the VIX, High-Low Index, and Bond yields.     Investors this week will concentrate on two factors. The first factor is Trump’s consecutive orders which he has advised will be signed within his first week. Investors will closely monitor how and if these policies influence the US economy and stocks. The second factor is earnings season, which will start to gain momentum this week. Tomorrow, Netflix will release its quarterly earnings report after the market closes. Netflix is the NASDAQ’s 10th most influential company and 11th most impactful stock. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to drop from $5.40 to $4.21, but for Revenue to rise to $10.11 Billion. If Netflix is able to beat the earnings per share and revenue expectations, fundamental elections would indicate a rise in the price. Over the past 12 months the price has risen 76%. A further increase would further support the NASDAQ. Thereafter, investors will turn their attention to Intuitive Surgical’s earnings report. Currently, investors believe the company’s earnings per share and revenue will rise compared to the previous quarter. Intuitive’s stock has risen by more than 9% in the past week alone indicating that investors believe the company will continue to beat earnings expectations. The company has beat expectations over the past 12-months. How are Markets Reacting to Trump's inauguration? Trump pledged to issue executive orders aimed at advancing artificial intelligence programs and establishing the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge). Analysts expect these two alone to support US stocks. However, investors are not yet certain to what extent upcoming tariffs will pressure the NASDAQ and stocks. During the previous trade wars, the NASDAQ fell by 25% over a period of 4-months. Traders also should note that the NASDAQ rose in the 6-weeks after Trump won the elections. Over the past week, the VIX index fell by more than 12% indicating that the market believes US stocks will perform well under a Trump presidency. Simultaneously, US Bond yields have fallen from 4.80% to 4.58% which is known to positively influence the US stock market. Both the VIX and lower bond yields indicate higher investor confidence as Trump advises that policies will prompt more employment, US made products and more pro-US policies. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis The price of the NASDAQ trades above the 200-bar Moving Average on a 5-minute Chart indicating bullish price movement. Moving Averages have also crossed over upwards and the price trades above the VWAP indicating that the asset is maintaining its bullish momentum. Price action is also forming clear higher highs and higher lows, but investors will be cautious if the price does not find resistance at the $21,637 resistance level. In order to break above this level, investors will be hoping for positive earnings data from Netflix and Intuitive.     Key Takeaways: President Trump's inauguration will take place this afternoon with promise to sign over 100 consecutive orders within his first week. US indices rise after 5 weeks of declines, with the NASDAQ leading at 4.12%. Trump pledged to issue executive orders aimed at advancing artificial intelligence programs and establishing the Department of Government Efficiency. Analysts expect Netflix earnings per share to drop from $5.40 to $4.21, but for Revenue to rise to $10.11 Billion. Investors are becoming more bullish under expectations that President Trump will apply policies to support the US economy and entice further investment into the US stock market. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Consider: some 80% of small to medium-sized businesses around the world don’t have a website.   Many businesses in emerging economies rely on social media platforms (e.g., WhatsApp, Facebook) as their primary digital presence instead of formal websites.   But even in more digitally advanced economies, the number can hover around half.   Why? Simple answer: although we’ve made it easier to make a website, it’s still not easy enough.   Let’s say a yoga instructor wants to offer online classes but lacks tech skills or a budget.   Instead of struggling with confusing platforms, she tells her AI agent, “Set up a website for me to host yoga classes.”   The AI handles everything.   It integrates Stripe for payments, Zoom for live classes, scheduling services for in-person classes, and a chat module for inquiries.   It even suggests templates.   When the instructor picks one and asks for a purple and white color scheme, the AI updates it instantly.   No coding. No frustration. Just results.   And the best part? She didn’t have to touch a single screen or key.   This is the future Wilson describes in Age of Invisible Machines.   And, as mentioned, it’s powered by three core technologies:   Conversational User Interfaces (CUIs): Say what you need; the system handles it. From building websites to booking flights, it’s fast and human-like.   Composable Architecture: Traditional business solutions become “modules”. Like LEGO bricks, modular tools—payments, chats, scheduling—snap together to create custom solutions without starting from scratch.   No-Code Programming: AI agents code for you, empowering anyone to create without needing a developer. It’s not just a better way to interact with technology…   It’s a complete reimagining of how industries operate.   As Harvard Business School’s Marco Iansiti says, “This isn’t disruption—it’s a fundamental shift in production and interaction.”   And, the thing is…   It’s not just possible. It’s already happening.   Early examples are already here. – Chris Campbell, AltucherConfidential Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • Question: My name is Omobola Sikiru from Lagos, Nigeria. I am mechanical engineering. Where can I find someone that can be my helper to relocate me to the USA?   Answer: According to your own profile, you are trying to enter other countries through deception and immigration fraud.   You are an engineer in Nigeria, but you are not licensed as an engineer in any other country.   There are no helpers, no sponsors, and nobody is going to give you money, get you an engineering job, or get you a visa.   You must qualify to immigrate. Nobody can help you with that.   Either you qualify and have settling in money, or you don’t.   You need to improve your English before trying to get a job in a Western, English speaking country. Engineers write reports. You wrote, ‘I am mechanical engineering’. Nobody will hire you if you write like this. Rathkeale Source: https://www.quora.com/My-name-is-Omobola-Sikiru-from-Lagos-Nigeria-I-am-mechanical-engineering-Where-can-I-find-someone-that-can-be-my-helper-to-relocate-me-to-the-USA   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/  
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.