Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Obsidian

CoT Charts

By Obsidian, in Forex

Recommended Posts

Obsidian    10

Obsidian
Posted

Speculative Investors Aggressively Betting On More Pound's Gains -CFTC

 

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange aggressively bet on the UK pound to continue its recent bullish trend, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

 

Traders held a net $760 million long GBP position or bets that the pound will rise as of Tuesday, according to the CFTC's weekly commitment of traders report. That is a dramatic shift from being a net seller of the currency for the last 8 months, but it comes in line with the recent pound rally following the MPC minutes last Wednesday which showed BoE policy maker Adam Posen dropping his call for an additional QE. Since then going long on the pound has been one of the most favorite calls by market participants especially against the euro. "Short-EUR/GBP is increasingly seen as the new short-EUR proxy trade," said Citi bank in a note.

 

Traders also added heavily to their open CAD and CHF positions as they increased their open long CHF and CAD positions from a week earlier by 22% and 17% respectively. That is also seen as an expected outcome giving the series of statements by BoC governor Mark Carney on the possible necessity for a near-term rate hike, and the repeated assertions by SNB president Thomas Jordan that the bank will continue to defend the EUR/CHF floor.

 

CFTC's data also showed that traders slightly decreased their open short euro position by 4% from a week earlier to reach a net of $18.7 billion. They also decreased their short yen position by the same percentage to reach a net of $8.6 billion, the data showed.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Obsidian    10

Obsidian
Posted

Speculative Investors Doubled Their Bets On More Pound Gains -CFTC

 

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange doubled their bets on the continuation of the bullish trend of the UK pound, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

 

Traders increased their open long GBP position by 123% from a weak earlier to reach a net of $1.7 billion as of Tuesday, according to the CFTC's weekly commitment of traders report. That bullish GBP sentiment is largely the outcome of the market's expectation of the BoE policy stance in May. The market consensus sees no further QE in May from the MPC especially after the last MPC minutes showed that BoE policy maker Adam Posen dropped his call to extend QE. "It would be a bit odd to reverse that one month later,"says Simon Hyes, Chief UK Economist at Barclays.

 

Another major factor behind the recent GBP resilience was the report that the SNB had boosted its FX reserve dominated in GBP, from £7.4b to £14.5bn; that increased the GBP share of the bank's gross FX reserve from 4.2% to 8.5%.

 

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 33% from a week earlier to reach a net of $12.7 billion, according to the report.

 

CFTC's data also showed that traders slightly decreased their open short euro position by 5 % from a week earlier to reach a net of $17.7 billion. They also decreased their short yen position by 9% to reach a net of $7.8 billion, the data showed.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Obsidian    10

Obsidian
Posted

Speculative Investors Joined The Crowd, Betting On More EUR Loses -CFTC

 

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange aggressively bet on more EUR loses, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

 

Traders increased their open short EUR position by 32% from a weak earlier to reach a net of $23.4 billion as of Tuesday, according to the CFTC's weekly commitment of traders report. In doing so, they joined the list of major market players expecting the single currency to fall vs. the US dollar in the short term amid the rising uncertainties in Europe. Examples for those on the EUR bears' list are Credit Suisse which sees the pair trading at 1.25 in 3 months, Morgan Stanley which expects the pair to touch 1.28 by the end of June, and Nomura which is holding its 2 weeks short EUR/USD position targeting 1.27 in the near term.

 

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 62% from a week earlier to reach a net of $20.5 billion, according to the report.

 

CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open short CHF position by 13% from a week earlier to reach a net of $2.2 billion. They also decreased their open short JPY position by 18% to reach a net of $6.4 billion, the data showed.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Obsidian    10

Obsidian
Posted

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange set a near record high for their bet on the EUR's fall, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

 

Traders increased their open short EUR position by 18% from a week earlier to reach a net of $27.7 billion - near the record high of $28.1 billion - as of Tuesday. That is inline with the market's general negative EUR sentiment given that the likelihood of Greece' EUR exit has increased significantly during the last 2 weeks.

 

Moreover, The new round of Greek elections is likely to put more pressure on the EUR. "It is perfectly possible that policymakers may lose the initiative, particularly during coming weeks of weak government and strong political uncertainty in Greece. For example, there could be a further acceleration of deposit outflows from the Greek banking system," Barclays Capital said in a note.

 

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 38% from a week earlier to reach a net of $28.3 billion, according to the report.

 

CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open short CHF position by 58% from a week earlier to reach a net of $3.5 billion. They also decreased their open short JPY position by 17% to reach a net of $5.3 billion, the data showed.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Obsidian    10

Obsidian
Posted

Speculative Investors' Bet On EUR's Fall Hit New Record High

 

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange broke the $28 billion record high for their bet on the EUR's fall, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

 

Traders increased their open short EUR position by 12% from a week earlier to reach a net of $31 billion as of Tuesday. The single currency lost over %5 against the US dollar on May so far due to the concerns over the possibility of Greek exit combined with the disappointing outcome of the EU summit on Wednesday.

 

But FX strategists at Barclays Capital and other banks warn from some short EUR covering in the near term due to this overstretched short position. "Should data or headlines surprise to the upside, safe heaven long are likely to see some unwind," said BarCap in its weekly FX note. The bank recommends to fade these possible temporary spikes.

 

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 25% from a week earlier to reach a net of $35.3 billion, according to the report.

 

CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open short CHF position by 30% from a week earlier to reach a net of $4.6 billion. They also decreased their open short JPY position by 47% to reach a net of $2.8 billion, the data showed.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
Go To Topic Listing

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Stocks4life
      Breakout and Swing Stock Ideas

      By Stocks4life · Posted

      HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • HFblogNews
      HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

      By HFblogNews · Posted

      Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • HFblogNews
      HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

      By HFblogNews · Posted

      Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Stocks4life
      Breakout and Swing Stock Ideas

      By Stocks4life · Posted

      PM Philip Morris stock, top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PM
    • Stocks4life
      Breakout and Swing Stock Ideas

      By Stocks4life · Posted

      EXC Exelon stock, nice range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?EXC
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.

  I accept