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Obsidian

CoT Charts

By Obsidian, in Forex

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Obsidian    10

Obsidian
Posted

Positioning data for the week ending Feb 14 indicated that there was some follow through with regard to shifts made last week. In aggregate, the market remains net long USD's which is not surprising given that risk sentiment remains volatile and shifts from day to day. There was an expansion to net long CAD positions, and a reduction in net long JPY positions, as well as net long AUD positions.

 

After trimming its net short EUR positions for two weeks, the market reversed course and expanded its net shorts on EUR to 148.6K contracts (+8K). This build up reflects the shifting trends in risk sentiment regarding Greece and its ability to secure a second bailout package. Now that some net shorts have been cleared out, it is time to build them back up again. Thus, USD's remain in high demand. There was a further expansion in net short GBP positions of 7.4K contracts to 40.6K which builds on an expansion in the prior week. The GBP continues to move in generally the same direction as EUR and as risk appetite wanes so does appetite for GBP. It seems its luster as a safe haven has faded in recent weeks as the spec market continues to build up shorts.

 

For the second consecutive week, JPY net longs were trimmed, this time by a significant amount as USD/JPY continues to trade higher. Net longs were reduced by 25.7K contracts to 25.5K contracts. It seems the market is starting to believe in the threats of intervention and jawboning has done the trick.

 

There was an expansion of net short CHF positions by 6K to 15.8K as the market continues to increase its shorts reflecting the inability of CHF to move very much, though it is broadly lower against the USD.

 

After the surprising moves in CAD and NZD last week, there was an addition to net long CAD positions of 7.3K to 9.5K positions. This is the highest level of net longs since August 2011. The fact that USD/CAD continues to orbit around parity and has not made a decisive move either way (above or below) has given the spec market opportunity to put their money where their mouth is and it is betting CAD will go higher. NZD long positions were added to but only marginally and there are now 23.8K contracts. Finally AUD positioning showed that net longs were trimmed by 1.3K contracts to 73.4K contracts, as the AUD's allure seems to have faded recently, though it still enjoys decent sized rallies on risk-on days.

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Obsidian    10

Obsidian
Posted

IMM positioning data for the week ending Feb 21 built on the positions that started to emerge over the past two weeks. In the aggregate, the market remains net long USD's, but these were scaled back a bit from the prior week. But this result is not surprising given the growing optimism that a package for Greece will be forthcoming, thereby taking some of the pressure off. Specific changes in spec positions simply built on recent trades, and notably, there was yet another build in net long CAD positions, and another reduction in net long JPY positions.

 

Net short EUR positions were trimmed by 6.4K to 142K following an expansion in the prior week. This likely reflects the optimism that Greece was able to secure a second bailout package. The fact that the EUR has been rallying steadily since the announcement of the package suggests that spec positioning may continue to show a reduction in short EUR p ositions. There was a significant reduction in net long JPY contracts which follows a recent trend. And for the week of Feb 21, they were reduced by 12.2K contracts to 17.2k. This reflects the move lower in JPY as the spec market seems to be taking the unwind in JPY quite seriously given lingering threats that the BoJ was concerned about USD/JPY levels.

 

There was a rather sizeable reduction in net short GBP positions, this time by 9.2K to 31.3K contracts. This follows the prior two weeks were shorts were built up. This is related to the move in EUR and reflects the overall sense that immediate risks for the euro zone have been pushed back.

 

There was an expansion of net short CHF positions by 3.8K to 19.8K as the market continues to increase its shorts as the CHF continues to lose its safe have status to the USD.

 

Given the moves in the commodity currencies over the past few weeks, there is now a consolidation of those positions. Specifically, there was yet another addition to net long CAD positions of 4.5K to 14.1K positions. This reflects CAD's continued, but elusive pursuit of parity. Nevertheless, the spec market continues to believe in the trade. NZD long positions were very modestly added to yield 24.2K contracts. Lastly, AUD positioning showed that net longs were very modestly added to in the week and are now at 74.7K from 73.4K contracts in the prior week. AUD remains a play that reflects risk sentiment and as such has seen some moderation in overall appetite over the previous weeks.

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