Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Obsidian

CoT Charts

Recommended Posts

Positioning data for the week ending Feb 14 indicated that there was some follow through with regard to shifts made last week. In aggregate, the market remains net long USD's which is not surprising given that risk sentiment remains volatile and shifts from day to day. There was an expansion to net long CAD positions, and a reduction in net long JPY positions, as well as net long AUD positions.

 

After trimming its net short EUR positions for two weeks, the market reversed course and expanded its net shorts on EUR to 148.6K contracts (+8K). This build up reflects the shifting trends in risk sentiment regarding Greece and its ability to secure a second bailout package. Now that some net shorts have been cleared out, it is time to build them back up again. Thus, USD's remain in high demand. There was a further expansion in net short GBP positions of 7.4K contracts to 40.6K which builds on an expansion in the prior week. The GBP continues to move in generally the same direction as EUR and as risk appetite wanes so does appetite for GBP. It seems its luster as a safe haven has faded in recent weeks as the spec market continues to build up shorts.

 

For the second consecutive week, JPY net longs were trimmed, this time by a significant amount as USD/JPY continues to trade higher. Net longs were reduced by 25.7K contracts to 25.5K contracts. It seems the market is starting to believe in the threats of intervention and jawboning has done the trick.

 

There was an expansion of net short CHF positions by 6K to 15.8K as the market continues to increase its shorts reflecting the inability of CHF to move very much, though it is broadly lower against the USD.

 

After the surprising moves in CAD and NZD last week, there was an addition to net long CAD positions of 7.3K to 9.5K positions. This is the highest level of net longs since August 2011. The fact that USD/CAD continues to orbit around parity and has not made a decisive move either way (above or below) has given the spec market opportunity to put their money where their mouth is and it is betting CAD will go higher. NZD long positions were added to but only marginally and there are now 23.8K contracts. Finally AUD positioning showed that net longs were trimmed by 1.3K contracts to 73.4K contracts, as the AUD's allure seems to have faded recently, though it still enjoys decent sized rallies on risk-on days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMM positioning data for the week ending Feb 21 built on the positions that started to emerge over the past two weeks. In the aggregate, the market remains net long USD's, but these were scaled back a bit from the prior week. But this result is not surprising given the growing optimism that a package for Greece will be forthcoming, thereby taking some of the pressure off. Specific changes in spec positions simply built on recent trades, and notably, there was yet another build in net long CAD positions, and another reduction in net long JPY positions.

 

Net short EUR positions were trimmed by 6.4K to 142K following an expansion in the prior week. This likely reflects the optimism that Greece was able to secure a second bailout package. The fact that the EUR has been rallying steadily since the announcement of the package suggests that spec positioning may continue to show a reduction in short EUR p ositions. There was a significant reduction in net long JPY contracts which follows a recent trend. And for the week of Feb 21, they were reduced by 12.2K contracts to 17.2k. This reflects the move lower in JPY as the spec market seems to be taking the unwind in JPY quite seriously given lingering threats that the BoJ was concerned about USD/JPY levels.

 

There was a rather sizeable reduction in net short GBP positions, this time by 9.2K to 31.3K contracts. This follows the prior two weeks were shorts were built up. This is related to the move in EUR and reflects the overall sense that immediate risks for the euro zone have been pushed back.

 

There was an expansion of net short CHF positions by 3.8K to 19.8K as the market continues to increase its shorts as the CHF continues to lose its safe have status to the USD.

 

Given the moves in the commodity currencies over the past few weeks, there is now a consolidation of those positions. Specifically, there was yet another addition to net long CAD positions of 4.5K to 14.1K positions. This reflects CAD's continued, but elusive pursuit of parity. Nevertheless, the spec market continues to believe in the trade. NZD long positions were very modestly added to yield 24.2K contracts. Lastly, AUD positioning showed that net longs were very modestly added to in the week and are now at 74.7K from 73.4K contracts in the prior week. AUD remains a play that reflects risk sentiment and as such has seen some moderation in overall appetite over the previous weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock, holding strong, watch for a bottom breakout above 2.36 at https://stockconsultant.com/?INO
    • Date: 21st February 2025.   European PMI Disappoint, Weighing on Euro Before German Elections   The Euro is the first currency to witness the volatility on this month’s PMI reports. The French, German and British PMI data have resulted in the Euro being the worst-performing currency of the European Session so far. However, will the Euro continue to decline throughout the day? European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes The French Purchasing Managers Index was the first European index to be made public. The release resulted in the Euro instantly declining 0.24%. The main concern from the French data was the Services PMI which fell from 48.2 to 44.5. Previously the market was expecting the data to remain more or less unchanged. The weak data triggered the decline which came to a halt after Germany’s PMI was released.     The German Manufacturing PMI read 0.5 points higher than previous expectations and the Services PMI was 0.2 points lower. The data from Germany was a relief for Euro investors and the price rose 0.12% higher. However, traders should note that the price of the EURUSD continues to remain 0.20% lower than yesterday’s close. The price of the EURUSD will now depend on the PMI data from the US. The value of the US Dollar will depend on its PMI release this afternoon and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expect both the US Services and Manufacturing PMI data to remain above the 50.00 level in the expansion zone. German Elections 2 Days Away Germany is set to hold a general election this Sunday, February 23rd, following the collapse of the coalition of social democrats, liberals, and greens. Given the country's highly proportional electoral system, German polls provide a strong indication of potential government formations post-election. The main concern for Germany is the AFD party who are Far-Right Nationalists. Currently, ahead in the polls are CDU (centre-right), and AFD (far right), followed by the SPD (centre-left). Traders should note that the results of the elections are likely to trigger strong volatility on Monday, but also influence volatility today. Economists may become further concerned if the far-right gains power for the first time due to uncertainty. If the government, similar to France, is unable to form a coalition, this would also be a concern for the Eurozone. Furthermore, the Euro this week is also under pressure from comments from members of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said to journalists that officials need not slow interest rate cuts, as January's 2.5% inflation is still expected to reach the 2.0% target this year. He also advised the European economy is weaker than previously expected. EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators The EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and 100-bar Simple Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. However, the price is moving away from the key resistance level at 1.05058 indicating the price is losing momentum. The short-term volatility is indicating the price is retracing downwards. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading below the 200-bar SMA and is also forming clear lower lows and highs. Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute chart confirming no current conflicts. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day attempting to regain losses from the past 2 weeks. Watch today’s Live Analysis Session for more signals as they develop!   Key Takeaway Points: Weak French Services PMI triggered an initial Euro decline, but German PMI provide a slight relief. However, EURUSD remains lower than yesterday’s close. The Euro’s direction now depends on the US PMI reports, with analysts expecting US data to stay in expansion territory. Sunday's German election could drive volatility, especially if the far-right AFD gains power or if coalition formation proves difficult. ECB official Fabio Panetta suggested no need to slow rate cuts, citing weaker-than-expected economic performance and expected inflation decline. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • BE Bloom Energy stock, watch for a range breakout, target 34 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?BE
    • APLD Applied Digital stock. nice rally, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?APLD
    • UAL United Airlines stock, watch for a narrow range breakout, target 122 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?UAL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.