CoT Charts

Obsidian · April 29, 2012

Weekly charts:

EUR-GBP-CHF-CAD-JPY-Gold-Silver

Obsidian · April 29, 2012

2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Obsidian · April 29, 2012

Speculative Investors Aggressively Betting On More Pound's Gains -CFTC

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange aggressively bet on the UK pound to continue its recent bullish trend, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Traders held a net $760 million long GBP position or bets that the pound will rise as of Tuesday, according to the CFTC's weekly commitment of traders report. That is a dramatic shift from being a net seller of the currency for the last 8 months, but it comes in line with the recent pound rally following the MPC minutes last Wednesday which showed BoE policy maker Adam Posen dropping his call for an additional QE. Since then going long on the pound has been one of the most favorite calls by market participants especially against the euro. "Short-EUR/GBP is increasingly seen as the new short-EUR proxy trade," said Citi bank in a note.

Traders also added heavily to their open CAD and CHF positions as they increased their open long CHF and CAD positions from a week earlier by 22% and 17% respectively. That is also seen as an expected outcome giving the series of statements by BoC governor Mark Carney on the possible necessity for a near-term rate hike, and the repeated assertions by SNB president Thomas Jordan that the bank will continue to defend the EUR/CHF floor.

CFTC's data also showed that traders slightly decreased their open short euro position by 4% from a week earlier to reach a net of $18.7 billion. They also decreased their short yen position by the same percentage to reach a net of $8.6 billion, the data showed.

Obsidian · May 5, 2012

Weekly charts:

EUR-GBP-CHF-CAD-JPY-Gold-Silver

Obsidian · May 5, 2012

2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Obsidian · May 6, 2012

Speculative Investors Doubled Their Bets On More Pound Gains -CFTC

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange doubled their bets on the continuation of the bullish trend of the UK pound, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Traders increased their open long GBP position by 123% from a weak earlier to reach a net of $1.7 billion as of Tuesday, according to the CFTC's weekly commitment of traders report. That bullish GBP sentiment is largely the outcome of the market's expectation of the BoE policy stance in May. The market consensus sees no further QE in May from the MPC especially after the last MPC minutes showed that BoE policy maker Adam Posen dropped his call to extend QE. "It would be a bit odd to reverse that one month later,"says Simon Hyes, Chief UK Economist at Barclays.

Another major factor behind the recent GBP resilience was the report that the SNB had boosted its FX reserve dominated in GBP, from £7.4b to £14.5bn; that increased the GBP share of the bank's gross FX reserve from 4.2% to 8.5%.

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 33% from a week earlier to reach a net of $12.7 billion, according to the report.

CFTC's data also showed that traders slightly decreased their open short euro position by 5 % from a week earlier to reach a net of $17.7 billion. They also decreased their short yen position by 9% to reach a net of $7.8 billion, the data showed.

Obsidian · May 12, 2012

Weekly charts:

EUR-GBP-CHF-CAD-JPY-Gold-Silver:

Obsidian · May 12, 2012

2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Obsidian · May 12, 2012

Speculative Investors Joined The Crowd, Betting On More EUR Loses -CFTC

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange aggressively bet on more EUR loses, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Traders increased their open short EUR position by 32% from a weak earlier to reach a net of $23.4 billion as of Tuesday, according to the CFTC's weekly commitment of traders report. In doing so, they joined the list of major market players expecting the single currency to fall vs. the US dollar in the short term amid the rising uncertainties in Europe. Examples for those on the EUR bears' list are Credit Suisse which sees the pair trading at 1.25 in 3 months, Morgan Stanley which expects the pair to touch 1.28 by the end of June, and Nomura which is holding its 2 weeks short EUR/USD position targeting 1.27 in the near term.

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 62% from a week earlier to reach a net of $20.5 billion, according to the report.

CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open short CHF position by 13% from a week earlier to reach a net of $2.2 billion. They also decreased their open short JPY position by 18% to reach a net of $6.4 billion, the data showed.

Obsidian · May 19, 2012

Weekly charts:

EUR-GBP-CHF-CAD-JPY-Gold-Silver:

Obsidian · May 19, 2012

2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Obsidian · May 19, 2012

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange set a near record high for their bet on the EUR's fall, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Traders increased their open short EUR position by 18% from a week earlier to reach a net of $27.7 billion - near the record high of $28.1 billion - as of Tuesday. That is inline with the market's general negative EUR sentiment given that the likelihood of Greece' EUR exit has increased significantly during the last 2 weeks.

Moreover, The new round of Greek elections is likely to put more pressure on the EUR. "It is perfectly possible that policymakers may lose the initiative, particularly during coming weeks of weak government and strong political uncertainty in Greece. For example, there could be a further acceleration of deposit outflows from the Greek banking system," Barclays Capital said in a note.

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 38% from a week earlier to reach a net of $28.3 billion, according to the report.

CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open short CHF position by 58% from a week earlier to reach a net of $3.5 billion. They also decreased their open short JPY position by 17% to reach a net of $5.3 billion, the data showed.

Obsidian · May 26, 2012

Weekly charts:

EUR-GBP-CHF-CAD-JPY-Gold-Silver:

Obsidian · May 26, 2012

2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Obsidian · May 26, 2012

Speculative Investors' Bet On EUR's Fall Hit New Record High

Speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange broke the $28 billion record high for their bet on the EUR's fall, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Traders increased their open short EUR position by 12% from a week earlier to reach a net of $31 billion as of Tuesday. The single currency lost over %5 against the US dollar on May so far due to the concerns over the possibility of Greek exit combined with the disappointing outcome of the EU summit on Wednesday.

But FX strategists at Barclays Capital and other banks warn from some short EUR covering in the near term due to this overstretched short position. "Should data or headlines surprise to the upside, safe heaven long are likely to see some unwind," said BarCap in its weekly FX note. The bank recommends to fade these possible temporary spikes.

Traders also added heavily to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 25% from a week earlier to reach a net of $35.3 billion, according to the report.

CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open short CHF position by 30% from a week earlier to reach a net of $4.6 billion. They also decreased their open short JPY position by 47% to reach a net of $2.8 billion, the data showed.